Ezekiel Elliott Thread: Should we Buy or Sell?

[bjd5211]

Cowboys have no shot at being any better than 8-8 without Zeke, with him they are a very strong SB contender. He's the only RB in the league that has this level of importance to his teams success and therefore one of the few with any leverage, and the only one that can pull off this type of early holdout. I guess we shall see how it plays out.

[kmbryant09]

In general, sure. But the Cowboys offense AND defense are built around Zeke. He extends drives on offense, and it's no secret their defense got significantly better as soon as Zeke came into the picture to give them breathers finally.

Disagree. The Cowboys offense is built around that offensive line, controlling the ball, and setting the pace of the game.

Is Zeke great? Sure. But no team's offense goes as their RB goes. We should have learned that when Pittsburgh's offense didn't skip a beat when they replaced their stud RB with a backup.

The Cowboys have, arguably, the best offensive line in the league and one of the premier young, up-and-coming defenses. They will certainly lean on the running game, but that is much more dependent on offensive line play than running back play. They've got a ton of money invested into Frederick / Martin / Smith on the O-Line, are about to give Dak a huge contract and still want to sign Cooper to a monster deal. Not to mention Byron Jones & Jaylon Smith being eligible for major extensions on the defensive side of the ball. I didn't think Jerry Jones was smart enough to NOT prioritize a Zeke extension, but I certainly think it's the right play.

Pittsburgh missed the playoffs last year. RB's do matter whether you want to believe it or not.

Let's look at the Cowboys 2017 season. No Zeke for 6 games.....NO PLAYOFFS. When he has played 16 games (2016 & 2018)....PLAYOFFS.

The Cowboys do not have enough weapons everywhere else to have Zeke sit out. 304 carries and 77 receptions last season...Zeke is the entire offense and he deserves to be paid accordingly.

What does Pittsburgh missing the playoffs last year have ANYTHING to do with my point about RB being a replaceable position?

In 2017, when Bell played and Pittsburgh went 13-3, the team scored 406 points with 6,047 total yards. In 2018, without Bell, those numbers dropped, scratch that, INCREASED to 428 points with 6,453 total yards. You could argue their rushing yards went down (from 1,667 to 1,445), but their efficiency actually went up (3.8 ypc to 4.2 ypc).

The reason why Pittsburgh struggled in 2018 vs. 2017 is because of a defense that gave up 50+ more points during the regular season, in addition to a tougher scheduler.

As analytics and advanced stats become more and more prevalent in the NFL, there are some pretty OBVIOUS conclusions that we all need to start accepting:
1. NFL teams need to emphasize passing offense and passing defense MUCH MORE than rushing offense & rushing defense than what they currently do. This includes salary cap allocation, draft capital investments, and pass/run play-calling splits.
2. NFL rushing success is much more dependent on offensive line play and overall offensive ability more so than an individual RB's talent. The difference between an elite RB and an average RB is a MUCH, MUCH, MUCH, MUCH, MUCH smaller gap than nearly every position in the NFL besides LS, P, and K.

This isn't even advanced analytics, but we also know the RB position has the shortest life span and the highest injury rate in the league. So why would you tie up $12 - 15 million in a RB at any point in time? Let alone when you don't have a lot of cap space and already need to sign much more important pieces like a QB, WR, LB, and CB/Safety?

The line of thinking that individual RB talent drives offenses is becoming out-dated very fast. If you still believe in it, I suggest you accelerate your thinking and read-up on some of the more modern analytics around the NFL.

[Orenthal Shames]

Ask the Rams if they'd do Gurley's mega deal with 2 years left on his contract over again.

[dynastyninja]

Ask the Rams if they'd do Gurley's mega deal with 2 years left on his contract over again.

Considering he's still playing and isn't dead yet, I'd bet they would.

[dynastyninja]

I'd pay Zeke 20m 100 times out of 100 before I pay Dak 30m. Not saying I'd cave to the holdout and pay him this year, but I'd much rather have Zeke than Dak.

[Jigga94]

Ask the Rams if they'd do Gurley's mega deal with 2 years left on his contract over again.

Considering he's still playing and isn't dead yet, I'd bet they would.

Wait... I thought he had his leg amputated though?

[kmbryant09]

I'd pay Zeke 20m 100 times out of 100 before I pay Dak 30m. Not saying I'd cave to the holdout and pay him this year, but I'd much rather have Zeke than Dak.

I suggest you read up on some analytical pieces that discuss what leads to winning football in the NFL nowadays...

[Cult of Dionysus]

Zeke is an elite RB of which there are 2 possibly 3 in the entire NFL. While I would have a hard time paying him $20m, I think he is worth a solid deal in the $12-15m range with a fair bit of guarantees (exception for offfield issues).

I wouldn't pay Dak more than $20m. He's not even a tier 2 guy for me. If I was the Cowboys GM, I'd trade Dak for as much draft capital as I could get and hire Fitzmagic to get me thru 2020.

[dynastyninja]

I'd pay Zeke 20m 100 times out of 100 before I pay Dak 30m. Not saying I'd cave to the holdout and pay him this year, but I'd much rather have Zeke than Dak.

I suggest you read up on some analytical pieces that discuss what leads to winning football in the NFL nowadays...

I don't dispute the importance of quarterback in the NFL. I do think certain teams (like the Cowboys) can rely primarily on a great run game to support an average quarterback and be successful.

I dispute that Dak Prescott is worth $30 million a year. I'd sign a journeyman like Fitzpatrick to pair with Zeke before I commit to four or five years with Dak, who is closer to average than he is good or bad.

Heck, if I'm Dallas I let Dak walk and sign Ryan Tannehill (and Zeke) next offseason. Save tens of millions of dollars for the same production if he's healthy.

Easy for me to say, though. I'm sitting at a computer with 0 NFL experience.

[FantasyFreak]

If Zeke holds out, it may be a good opportunity to see if Dak is worth the money. If it's like the first go without Zeke, I'd think they'd balk at his 30 million plus demands.

[bjd5211]

I'd pay Zeke 20m 100 times out of 100 before I pay Dak 30m. Not saying I'd cave to the holdout and pay him this year, but I'd much rather have Zeke than Dak.

I suggest you read up on some analytical pieces that discuss what leads to winning football in the NFL nowadays...

You win nowadays with a cheap QB on a rookie deal and a great roster, which is exactly what Dallas is this year. Or you win with an MVP/HOF caliber QB on a big deal, or go the NE route and have the GOAT at a discount.

Paying an average QB elite QB money is a death sentence, and Dak is middle of the pack. Once they pay Dak their window disappears in a year or two when they have to let some other guys walk.

[kmbryant09]

I'd pay Zeke 20m 100 times out of 100 before I pay Dak 30m. Not saying I'd cave to the holdout and pay him this year, but I'd much rather have Zeke than Dak.

I suggest you read up on some analytical pieces that discuss what leads to winning football in the NFL nowadays...

You win nowadays with a cheap QB on a rookie deal and a great roster, which is exactly what Dallas is this year. Or you win with an MVP/HOF caliber QB on a big deal, or go the NE route and have the GOAT at a discount.

Paying an average QB elite QB money is a death sentence, and Dak is middle of the pack. Once they pay Dak their window disappears in a year or two when they have to let some other guys walk.

I don't necessarily disagree, though I think people overlook how crappy the alternatives are to a "mediocre" QB - it's not like franchise QBs are growing on trees, and most teams are best served holding onto capable, above-average starters.

I was mostly addressing the point that it's foolish to pay RBs large sums of money, especially at the expense of an above-average QB.

[kmbryant09]

I'd pay Zeke 20m 100 times out of 100 before I pay Dak 30m. Not saying I'd cave to the holdout and pay him this year, but I'd much rather have Zeke than Dak.

I suggest you read up on some analytical pieces that discuss what leads to winning football in the NFL nowadays...

I don't dispute the importance of quarterback in the NFL. I do think certain teams (like the Cowboys) can rely primarily on a great run game to support an average quarterback and be successful.

I dispute that Dak Prescott is worth $30 million a year. I'd sign a journeyman like Fitzpatrick to pair with Zeke before I commit to four or five years with Dak, who is closer to average than he is good or bad.

Heck, if I'm Dallas I let Dak walk and sign Ryan Tannehill (and Zeke) next offseason. Save tens of millions of dollars for the same production if he's healthy.

Easy for me to say, though. I'm sitting at a computer with 0 NFL experience.

There's a reason guys like Fitzpatrick & Tannehill are proving to be journeymen who have never won anything.....

I don't necessarily disagree on your evaluation on Dak, though I think he's in the 10 - 15 range in terms of QBs in the NFL, with room to grow. Is that worth $30 million? Probably not. But if the alternative is signing Tannehill and giving a bunch of money to a RB? You'll be looking for a new job in 2 years tops.

[bjd5211]

I suggest you read up on some analytical pieces that discuss what leads to winning football in the NFL nowadays...

You win nowadays with a cheap QB on a rookie deal and a great roster, which is exactly what Dallas is this year. Or you win with an MVP/HOF caliber QB on a big deal, or go the NE route and have the GOAT at a discount.

Paying an average QB elite QB money is a death sentence, and Dak is middle of the pack. Once they pay Dak their window disappears in a year or two when they have to let some other guys walk.

I don't necessarily disagree, though I think people overlook how crappy the alternatives are to a "mediocre" QB - it's not like franchise QBs are growing on trees, and most teams are best served holding onto capable, above-average starters.

I was mostly addressing the point that it's foolish to pay RBs large sums of money, especially at the expense of an above-average QB.

I would pay Zeke and let Dak walk. Draft another QB and get years of cheap QB labor again.

[dynastyninja]

I suggest you read up on some analytical pieces that discuss what leads to winning football in the NFL nowadays...

I don't dispute the importance of quarterback in the NFL. I do think certain teams (like the Cowboys) can rely primarily on a great run game to support an average quarterback and be successful.

I dispute that Dak Prescott is worth $30 million a year. I'd sign a journeyman like Fitzpatrick to pair with Zeke before I commit to four or five years with Dak, who is closer to average than he is good or bad.

Heck, if I'm Dallas I let Dak walk and sign Ryan Tannehill (and Zeke) next offseason. Save tens of millions of dollars for the same production if he's healthy.

Easy for me to say, though. I'm sitting at a computer with 0 NFL experience.

There's a reason guys like Fitzpatrick & Tannehill are proving to be journeymen who have never won anything.....

I don't necessarily disagree on your evaluation on Dak, though I think he's in the 10 - 15 range in terms of QBs in the NFL, with room to grow. Is that worth $30 million? Probably not. But if the alternative is signing Tannehill and giving a bunch of money to a RB? You'll be looking for a new job in 2 years tops.

I actually think Tannehill is just as good as Dak (possibly a little better) but injuries are a hinderance.

That's probably more reflective of my opinion of Dak, though. I think we're 2-3 years away from looking at him the same as we look at a guy like Tannehill. Hyped at one point but nothing special and hard to pay elite money.

$20m is probably too much for Zeke, but I'd much rather give him $15m like Gurley, focus on the offensive line, and hire a game manager than sign Dak for $30m and hope he can pull a Russell Wilson and drag them to a wild card loss.