Indy TE's

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FiremanEd
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Indy TE's

Postby FiremanEd » Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:46 am

I think most would agree that the Colts TE position is one of high fantasy returns. Jack Doyle seemingly came out of no where a few years ago and provided quiet TE1 production, despite not being any sort of special talent. Ebron joined the mix last year and put up the best year of his career while being among the league leaders in TD's. There is lots of talk about Ebron's upcoming regression due to that seemingly unsustainable TD rate, but most still have him projected for (low) TE1 numbers, and Doyle still considered a TE2 with upside depending how things play out. How the two will co-exist and produce is something I'd like to get more opinions on...while also now taking into account the Mo Alie-Cox hype and projection that he could take 20 snaps per game.

How do you see things playing out in 2019 for each of them?
How do you see things shaping out come 2020 when all of their contracts come to an end?
What do you value each of them at?
Are you selling/buying?

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WhatWouldDitkaDo
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Re: Indy TE's

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:04 am

Ebron - mid/late 1st - yes, there will be TD regression, but Luck still loves targeting his TEs in the red zone. Plus, with another year in the offense, I expect a few more snaps and targets even outside the red zone.

Doyle - mid/late 2nd - he's an injury risk and more a Witten-type possession / check-down TE than a true difference maker. Doyle could be a TE2 with TE1 upside in PPR, but the same could be said for 20 other TEs, most of which have far higher upside.

Alie-Cox - mid 3rd - he's still just a flier right now. How many roster spots have been wasted for how many years on guys like Erik Swoope, Demetrius Harris, and the like? Worth a shot, but I wouldn't pay much to get him.
Kittles Pox | Championships: 2015, 2017
12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, Boston Scott, Benny Snell Jr.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk
TE: George Kittle, Travis Kelce | K: Younghoe Koo | DST: SF
PS: Mecole Hardman, Tony Pollard | 2020 Picks: 1.09, 2.10, 3.03 | 2021 Picks: 1st, 2nd

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Re: Indy TE's

Postby djeternal2 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:00 am

If I could get Doyle for a mid/late second or a high third I'd do that in a heartbeat. Once Doyle was back he outsnapped Ebron. Doyle imo is the guy to own in Indy.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle

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dynastyninja
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Re: Indy TE's

Postby dynastyninja » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:16 am

I love Doyle at his current value. He could absolutely be a top half TE1 if healthy. Not many TEs I'd rather own over him.

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Re: Indy TE's

Postby baldwin415 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:13 pm

I wouldn't spend a 1st round pick on Ebron. Doyle is still the TE1 and will see a higher share of snaps due to being the better blocker. Ebron is due for a decent amount of negative regression with a healthy Doyle and the addition of Funchess taking up some redzone targets. I love Alie-Cox (Gigantor), but he's stuck in a bad situation and will stay the TE3 until he moves teams
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Re: Indy TE's

Postby ericanadian » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:04 pm

Ebron’s catch rate was pretty abysmal given how short his targets were. Going 66 for 110 is worse than Hilton, who averages nearly 17 YPR. Anyone watching the Colts regularly have an explanation for that which would make it reasonable to expect the Colts to continue with Ebron over Doyle?
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Re: Indy TE's

Postby Plank » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:14 pm

Read so many positive reports on Alie while Ebron and Doyle have been hurt that I've stashed him just about everywhere..

Even with a healthy Ebron and Doyle, Alie is going to see 20 plays, some more than likely in goal line packages, and if there's an injury, I would like to have him for that. He really caught my attention late last year and with all the news, he is the type of guy I like on the back of my roster.
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Re: Indy TE's

Postby Phaded » Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:21 pm

I stashed Alie-Cox in my 2TE league.
With both Ebron & Doyle being UFAs after this year, he intrigues me.

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Re: Indy TE's

Postby ninotoreS » Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:52 pm

I'll be looking at MAC in the 4th and 5th round range of rookie-drafts in leagues where he's in the free-agent pool with the rookies. I'm not looking to acquire Doyle or Ebron -- both their '19 projection and their future in Indy appears to be too much of a crapshoot.
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remedy29
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Re: Indy TE's

Postby remedy29 » Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:30 am

ericanadian wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:04 pm Ebron’s catch rate was pretty abysmal given how short his targets were. Going 66 for 110 is worse than Hilton, who averages nearly 17 YPR. Anyone watching the Colts regularly have an explanation for that which would make it reasonable to expect the Colts to continue with Ebron over Doyle?
The Colts pass catching group was terrible last year, I'm sure some of the throws to the biggest tallest guy on the roster were forced throws. Luck has always been a QB that makes things happen, he would rather force throws, score points with the INT risk rather than playing it safe and losing games without throwing INTs. Of course, Frank Reich helped Luck limit his INTs last year.

Ebron is always dismissed, but the fact is he is the guy on the field when the Colts want to move the ball through the passing game and score points. Sure, Doyle may out snap him, but those plays are more running plays.

I agree with the majority, Ebron mid to low TE1 numbers, he is just too talented physically to not put up numbers. Doyle high end TE2 with upside.

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Re: Indy TE's

Postby djeternal2 » Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:00 am

remedy29 wrote: Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:30 am
ericanadian wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:04 pm Ebron’s catch rate was pretty abysmal given how short his targets were. Going 66 for 110 is worse than Hilton, who averages nearly 17 YPR. Anyone watching the Colts regularly have an explanation for that which would make it reasonable to expect the Colts to continue with Ebron over Doyle?
The Colts pass catching group was terrible last year, I'm sure some of the throws to the biggest tallest guy on the roster were forced throws. Luck has always been a QB that makes things happen, he would rather force throws, score points with the INT risk rather than playing it safe and losing games without throwing INTs. Of course, Frank Reich helped Luck limit his INTs last year.

Ebron is always dismissed, but the fact is he is the guy on the field when the Colts want to move the ball through the passing game and score points. Sure, Doyle may out snap him, but those plays are more running plays.

I agree with the majority, Ebron mid to low TE1 numbers, he is just too talented physically to not put up numbers. Doyle high end TE2 with upside.
The last 4 games where Doyle & Ebron were on the field last year:

Week 8
Doyle 7 targets 6 catches 70 yards
Ebron 3 targets 3 catches 37 yards

Week 9
Doyle 3 targets 3 catches 36 yards
Ebron 3 targets 3 catches 69 yards

Week 10
Doyle 4 targets 4 catches 43 yards
Ebron 0 targets 0 catches 0 yards

Week 11
Doyle 4 targets 4 catches 16 yards
Ebron 7 targets 5 catches 45 yards

Again Doyle outsnapped Ebron when both were healthy. And based on this Ebron only out targeted & had more catches in 1 of those 4 weeks.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle

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Re: Indy TE's

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:45 am

djeternal2 wrote: Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:00 am The last 4 games where Doyle & Ebron were on the field last year:

Week 8
Doyle 7 targets 6 catches 70 yards
Ebron 3 targets 3 catches 37 yards

Week 9
Doyle 3 targets 3 catches 36 yards
Ebron 3 targets 3 catches 69 yards

Week 10
Doyle 4 targets 4 catches 43 yards
Ebron 0 targets 0 catches 0 yards

Week 11
Doyle 4 targets 4 catches 16 yards
Ebron 7 targets 5 catches 45 yards

Again Doyle outsnapped Ebron when both were healthy. And based on this Ebron only out targeted & had more catches in 1 of those 4 weeks.
Those stats can be interpreted multiple ways though.

1. While Doyle may have had more catches and receptions, Ebron's YPR and TD rate are important. Yes, the TDs will regress, but Luck clearly has chemistry with Ebron, especially in the red zone. Plus, Ebron is a far better athlete and can stretch the field, whereas Doyle is more a checkdown option to rack up a few PPR points.

2. Week 10 was a 38-10 blowout win vs TEN in which Hilton was getting open at will. Luck didn't really need to target Ebron at all and checked it down to Doyle a few times when Hilton actually wasn't open. That game was definitely outside their normal gameflow. Take out the one zero game from Ebron in that blowout, and the tgt / rec stats look much closer to Doyle's but with more yards and TDs. And while PPR can help in fantasy, yards and TDs will outweigh those points for the most part.
Kittles Pox | Championships: 2015, 2017
12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, Boston Scott, Benny Snell Jr.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk
TE: George Kittle, Travis Kelce | K: Younghoe Koo | DST: SF
PS: Mecole Hardman, Tony Pollard | 2020 Picks: 1.09, 2.10, 3.03 | 2021 Picks: 1st, 2nd


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