Postby Kcarr » Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:59 pm
DJB wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:20 pm
I dont have any concrete evidence to this but will try some context.
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/strengt ... osition=RB
Giants have 31st toughest RB schedule this year. So Barkley is already facing a tough uphill battle.
https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/07/how ... ball-2019/
This article gives great context into how poor offences usually affect RB'S a ton in terms of fantasy scoring.
Its a pretty long article but the biggest takeaway is that if a team has a bottom 10 scoring offence, there is only a 7.1 % chance that the RB on that team is a top 6 fantasy RB.
Now you could point out that Barkley was a top fantasy RB on last year on the Giants and they were a top 16 offence, but by losing Odell and relying on Manning or a rookie to keep that team out of the bottom 10 for offence seems like a stretch.
Im aware that Barkley is a stud, I realize hes generational, but I'm just trying to point out that maybe his production dips and there might be a window where his cost dips a bit.
At this time last year I believe that Gurley was the RB1 and look how far he has fallen. (Yes I understand it's different circumstances because of his injury).
Barkley is ranked #1 in RB rankings . All it takes is for him to move down one spot and you can argue his value has decreased even if it's minimal making him an easier buy.
Take this thread for what its worth.
A couple of things stand out to me here with these percentages that may go overlooked. First, the chances of a bottom 10 offense having a top 6 rb is low, 7.1%, which should be expected for 2 reasons. First, if the rb is that good it will often raise the offense above bottom 10 and second, if the offense is good the backs will flourish meaning more top offenses will fill those few spots.
That said, regardless of overall offense the chance of the top back being top 6 is low, only 18% of all teams will have a top 6 back.
Also, if 7% of bottom 10 teams have one then more often than not one of the bottom 10 teams will have one. Which back do you think will be on a bottom 10 offense that has a better chance of being top 6 than Barkley
4th and long: ppr, 10 team, qb, rb, rb, wr, wr, wr, flex, flex, te, k, dl, dl, lb, lb, db, db, dflex, dflex
QB: Kirk Cousins Tyrod Taylor, Jared Goff
RB: Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliot, Theo Riddick, D'Onta Foreman, James Conner, Jamal Williams
WR: Alshon Jeffrey, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Cole Beasley, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis, Breshad Perriman, Eli Rogers
TE: Eric Ebron, , David Njoku, Jack Doyle
K: Will Lutz
DL: Frank Clark, Danielle Hunter
LB: Luke Kuechley, Bobby Wagner, Jordan Hicks, Mark Barron, Darron Lee
DB: Sean Davis, Morgan Burnett,
IR: Clayton Geathers, Quincy Enunwa, Raekwon McMillan