The Fall of Gurley

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Cult of Dionysus
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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:46 am

Todd Gurley is so messed up, he can't even fly on an airplane!

https://twitter.com/TurfShowTimes/statu ... 6912390144

But yeah, he's still gonna get almost all his touches. Just a one or two less per week, cuz that's ALL that he needs to stay healthy.

:doh:

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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:15 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:46 am
Todd Gurley is so messed up, he can't even fly on an airplane!

https://twitter.com/TurfShowTimes/statu ... 6912390144

But yeah, he's still gonna get almost all his touches. Just a one or two less per week, cuz that's ALL that he needs to stay healthy.

:doh:
Look I'm no Gurley or Henderson supporter; I have no side here... But where in there does it say anything about his knee? To me it just sounds like a veteran not going to make a long trip to a game he wouldn't play in either way... Right?
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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:24 am

I seem to remember something earlier this off season about keeping Gurley OFF airplanes to let his knee heal better... Kinda similar to some players going into oxygen chambers to heal, except the inverse being applied to not flying.

Week 1 of the NFL seasons has the Rams visiting Carolina. Now I'm not great with geography, but my guess is that the team will be flying to the East Coast. Maybe since it's a charter they can ask the pilot to keep it under 12,000 feet.

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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby Weknownothing86 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:25 am

Todd Gurley got a cat, even more of a buy low window? People hate cats and if he is wearing a knee brace it may be a scratch pad. Cat pee is also smelly and he may get sick from the cat litter. Awful for his value. SELL NOW!!!!
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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby Huh » Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:45 am

Weknownothing86 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:25 am
Todd Gurley got a cat, even more of a buy low window? People hate cats and if he is wearing a knee brace it may be a scratch pad. Cat pee is also smelly and he may get sick from the cat litter. Awful for his value. SELL NOW!!!!
Anybody that gets a cat is nuts. They live for twenty years and the whole time they are waiting for you to die so they can eat you. They are the patient scavengers.

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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby Mike11 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:07 am

Well now I'm upset because I want my players to get wined and dined prior to the start of the season. Why are you depriving this man of his pineapple juice!
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QbAaron Rodgers Kirk Cousins Andy Dalton, Lamar Jackson
RbTodd Gurley Kareem Hunt James Connor
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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby ArrylT » Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 am

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby AZK » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:01 am

ArrylT wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 am
I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.
With most players in dynasty we are all right and wrong about players many different times during their careers.
Ainslie-Rachlin Law, "Our decisions... are guided by the perceived values at the moment of the decision - not by the potential final value."

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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby Mike11 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:02 am

ArrylT wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 am
I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.
You're probably right. No one really has a crystal ball on this so it's often gut instinct and whatever data we scrape together. In terms of being right the decisions I see are:

1. He's great, everything was over dramatized
2. He's not transcendent but still good, the built in buffer of a 10-30% reduced workload was accurate and with proper management he still has a long career
3. He's good but wears down midseason and it's becoming likely Gurley has a much shorter career than anyone hopes for

then the inverse of all of this basically - the wheels come off way quicker, he is a shell of his former self, etc.
League Established in 2014

2015 League Champion
2017 League Champion
2018 League Champion

10 Team 20 Keeper League Non ppr

Starters in Bold

QbAaron Rodgers Kirk Cousins Andy Dalton, Lamar Jackson
RbTodd Gurley Kareem Hunt James Connor
Flex Nick Chubb
WrJulio Jones Steffon Diggs Sammy Watkins Josh Gordon Mike Williams , Deebo Samuel
TeRob Gronkowski Eric Ebron TJ Hockenson

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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:08 am

ArrylT wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 am
I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.
I'm curious to hear your process and your decision. And anyone elses that cares tonchime in. Keep the focus on what your individual personal process has been.

Mine was that fear clouds judgement. It's very hard to make a rational decision because the emotion is so powerful it clouds the process.

I decided to buy the dip using a market illustration. Everyone fears recession when the market dips. And yes, sometimes it happens, but fear drives the stock market as often as logic.

My process was to try and buy the fear, and yes, I have the strong feelings of doom that are associated with Gurley. But I am trying to buy the value or dip.

I will sell though if the market heats back up on him.
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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:42 pm

Almost none of the Rams starters will be making the flight to Hawaii, I guess the whole team is hurt.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/273 ... ame-hawaii

"Defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Marcus Peters are the only starters who are expected to make the trip, though they will not play in the game on Saturday at Aloha Stadium." -quote from above article.

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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:43 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:46 am
Todd Gurley is so messed up, he can't even fly on an airplane!

https://twitter.com/TurfShowTimes/statu ... 6912390144

But yeah, he's still gonna get almost all his touches. Just a one or two less per week, cuz that's ALL that he needs to stay healthy.

:doh:
i guess there must be something wrong with all the rams starters since they're not going to hawaii either.

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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby PR0v3 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:30 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 am
I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.
Gurley will be good on a per touch basis, but will get far less usage than owners want. Come real playoff time, he will be unleashed. 8-15 touches per game in the regular season and possibly less. Any more than that is just not necessary for them to win regular season games. Basically, expect the inverse of what happened last year.

I’ve got him pegged for 160-180 regular season touches so that they can give him 100+ more in the playoffs.
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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:39 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:30 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 am
I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.
Gurley will be good on a per touch basis, but will get far less usage than owners want. Come real playoff time, he will be unleashed. 8-15 touches per game in the regular season and possibly less. Any more than that is just not necessary for them to win regular season games. Basically, expect the inverse of what happened last year.

I’ve got him pegged for 160-180 regular season touches so that they can give him 100+ more in the playoffs.

That's too low IMO. I'd say hell get that many carries.
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Re: The Fall of Gurley

Postby ArrylT » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:37 pm

AZK wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:01 am
ArrylT wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:46 am
I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.
With most players in dynasty we are all right and wrong about players many different times during their careers.
Absolutely. I am definitely not saying we won't be. And sometimes it is better (for our fantasy teams) to be lucky/right for the wrong reasons than right for the right reasons.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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