Ping Pong Ball Distribution for draft position

[Goirish374]

kindly simply take as a given that a league uses a ping pong ball lottery on draftpicklottery.com to determine the draft order of, say, 8 of 16 teams that don't make the playoffs.

one school of thought is to assign 8 balls to the worst of those teams, 7 to the second worst, etc...with 1 ball for the best of those 8. This method seems to not work very well (this means there is an 8/36 chance of the worst team getting the 1.01, or a nearly 78% chance of the worst team not getting the 1.01).

how would you adjust the weight by finish to get results you are happier with? What's a target % chance for the worst team to get the 1.01?

(whether or not have such a system in place is a separate issue).

[MrUbuto]

Probably only inude the bottom 4. 8th place team has no business being the mix for the top prize

[Goirish374]

great point.

let's assume the bottom 4 are in their own pool.

what kind of ping pong ball breakdown makes sense? What kind of % chance should the worst team have of not getting the 1.01?

[Cult of Dionysus]

great point.

let's assume the bottom 4 are in their own pool.

what kind of ping pong ball breakdown makes sense? What kind of % chance should the worst team have of not getting the 1.01?

1/4 for worst team
5/20 for 2nd
3/12 for 3rd
6/24 for 4th

[MattDeezy]

great point.

let's assume the bottom 4 are in their own pool.

what kind of ping pong ball breakdown makes sense? What kind of % chance should the worst team have of not getting the 1.01?

1/4 for worst team
5/20 for 2nd
3/12 for 3rd
6/24 for 4th

Lmao

[Ray Finkle]

great point.

let's assume the bottom 4 are in their own pool.

what kind of ping pong ball breakdown makes sense? What kind of % chance should the worst team have of not getting the 1.01?

1/4 for worst team
5/20 for 2nd
3/12 for 3rd
6/24 for 4th

Lmao

The equivalent fractions made me lmao. Then your lmao really made me lmao.

[MrUbuto]

Maybe 50% 30% 15% 5%

Ideally you want it to go in the right order but this just adds a little fun.

[Kelldon]

You can do 20 balls for worst, then 8, then 4, then 1.

[Hottoddies]

For 4 teams use ten ping pong balls:
4 for worst or 40%
3 for 2nd worst or 30%
2 for 3rd worst or 20%
1 for 4th worst or 10%

[jordanzs]

I’ve thought about this too.

I wonder how it would affect in-season trading?

[Goirish374]

For 4 teams use ten ping pong balls:
4 for worst or 40%
3 for 2nd worst or 30%
2 for 3rd worst or 20%
1 for 4th worst or 10%

you have unlimited theoretical ping pong balls (not sure if you just picked 10 for convenience; just clarifying).

you're ok with 60% chance the worst team doesn't get the 1.01? i'm not criticizing (i dont know what a good % is) just making sure i'm following.

[Pac_Eddy]

I'd design it to 50-75% chance the worst team (by potential points) gets the #1 overall pick. You don't want the worst team sliding more times than not.

I'm in one league that uses a lottery for the top 4 picks, but you can't slide down more than two picks. It really doesn't affect trading much and is pretty fair for a lottery. Overall I prefer just using potential points if I had my choice.

[trc]

Determing the right distribution is difficult, cause you really want to make sure the worst team more often than not gets 1.01. Or at least I would want to make sure of that.

To give this to the worst team will come with complications, as the definition of worst team can give different answers, depending on what the definition is (W/L ratio, all play W/L, best ball format, potential points).
But if you go down that road, why even bother doing the ping pong, as you already have determined which team is the worst and is most deserving of the 1.01.

[ArrylT]

Why not tie the # of ping pong balls to the actual results?

Lets say each of the 8 teams that missed the playoffs gets a percentage/ number of the ping pong balls immediately, and then another percentage / number based on either their win total or total points?

That way if 5 of the 8 teams had really bad records and the other 3 teams just missed out on the playoffs due to 'luck of the draw' this helps reflect that - after all the results will change from season to season.

[abloom]

Why not decide what percentages you want everyone to have for the 1.01, and then distribute balls accordingly.