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Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:54 am
by BHerm24
Wondering what everyone's thoughts are for Kyler Murray 2019 and on?

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:31 am
by BHerm24
Ceiling- 35 total TDs 4000 Pa yds. 800 rush yds= 400+ FAPTS
Floor- 25 total TDs 3200 Pa yds, 500 rush yds= 300ish FAPTS

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:48 am
by Phaded
His floor is going the RG3 route.
His ceiling is the Russell Wilson route.

I was on board initially, but the more I looked into him; the more skeptical I became of his NFL transition.

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:49 am
by BHerm24
Why do you say that?

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:20 am
by FantasyFreak
BHerm24 wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:31 am
Ceiling- 35 total TDs 4000 Pa yds. 800 rush yds= 400+ FAPTS
Floor- 25 total TDs 3200 Pa yds, 500 rush yds= 300ish FAPTS
Rather than type it all out again, agree with the ceiling, just drop the TD passes to 18-20 on the floor and rush yards to 400 on the floor. That's my take. I highly doubt he hits this ceiling year 1, also. He has a bad OL, and a lot of inexperience at the WR position. Fitz is over the hill. I think the air raid transition may not got as smoothly as some think. There is a ton of inexperience from the HC, QB and WR position. Murray only had 1 full year starting in college. I think he will make some great plays but struggle overall year 1. I personally think he falls somewhere between the RG3 floor and Russell Wilson ceiling that Phaded provided for his career.

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:35 am
by ninotoreS
Even if he's good, Murray isn't going to light the world on fire in '19 with that supporting cast. I've gotten the impression that some people believe Arizona's rookie-class will dramatically improve the offense overnight? Well, that probably won't happen. Even if those WRs they added were elite blue-chips -- and they're not, they all have significant flaws on their profiles -- they're still rookies. Arizona had a terrible O last year and there's only so much a new playcaller and Day 2/3 selected rookies can do to fix that in one off-season.

There's also the issue that Murray has all of one season as a full time starter in college.

I think projection for Murray's '19 is almost pure guesswork since Kingsbury's offense in the NFL has a wide range of possible outcomes (from great success to abject failure), but my stab at projection for Murray is something like 3000 yards passing, 15 TDs, 5 more TDs on the ground, 500 yards rushing, 15 interceptions.

I'm guessing his floor is something like Trubisky's rookie year.

Re:

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:41 am
by Orenthal Shames
ninotoreS wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:35 am
BHerm24 wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:31 am
Floor- 25 total TDs 3200 Pa yds, 500 rush yds= 300ish FAPTS
Not sure you fully understand the concept of 'floor'.
Came here to say just this^

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:35 pm
by jomaed
Ceiling - HOF Career
Floor - Playing Baseball in 3 Years

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:15 pm
by Space Cowboy
He can throw from all angles. He's tremendous outside the pocket and picking up rushing yards. He's got a live arm and nice touch. Works through his progressions nicely too. Looks like a "sure thing" to me. I'd take him #1 too.

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:21 pm
by Blueboy
As an owner that traded Goff to take him 1.01, I'm cautiously expecting a season of about 20-25 TDs, 15 INTs, 3,000-3,500 yards and ~400 rushing yards. Something similar to Wentz' rookie season.That's pretty close to what most seem to have as his floor.

I think we're going to see growing pains in AZ, both from the coaching staff and the rookie-led offense. Kyler will probably miss a few games with minor injuries, lose some games due to rookie mistakes, and flash a lot of upside. Much more excited about his Year 2/3.

That said, I agree with others who have is ceiling as HOF Career. The talent is there. I'd just tamper the breaks on early optimism -- he's in a tough spot as a rookie.

Re:

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:23 pm
by FantasyFreak
ninotoreS wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:35 am
Even if he's good, Murray isn't going to light the world on fire in '19 with that supporting cast. I've gotten the impression that some people believe Arizona's rookie-class will dramatically improve the offense overnight? Well, that probably won't happen. Even if those WRs they added were elite blue-chips -- and they're not, they all have significant flaws on their profiles -- they're still rookies. Arizona had a terrible O last year and there's only so much a new playcaller and Day 2/3 selected rookies can do to fix that in one off-season.

There's also the issue that Murray has all of one season as a full time starter in college.

I think projection for Murray's '19 is almost pure guesswork since Kingsbury's offense in the NFL has a wide range of possible outcomes (from great success to abject failure), but my stab at projection for Murray is something like 3000 yards passing, 15 TDs, 5 more TDs on the ground, 500 yards rushing, 15 interceptions.

I'm guessing his floor is something like Trubisky's rookie year.
Very limited time vs top competition too, so I expect a learning curve. He can pick up rushing yards to give a decent floor for FF purposes, though. The first half vs Alabama he really struggled. I believe he was 6 or 13 for 122 yards through the air, and did not look comfortable, when the game was a contest. Bama sat back in soft zones in the 2nd half and Murray had some better numbers against that type of defense, but I do expect it to be an up and down season for him with his limited experience and lack of talent on the OL, and lack of seasoned options at WR, too. I think he can have a solid career, though I don't think he will set the league on fire like some do.

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:28 pm
by Blueboy
I should say, I think that he'll benefit tremendously from the presence of guys like Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson. Great bail out options can be a real saving grace for a rookie QB, and those guys have personas that could go a long way in building up the team's inexperienced skill positions.

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:30 pm
by ArrylT
Carson Wentzs rookie season:

379 / 607
62.4%
3782 yards
6.23 YPA
16 TD
14 INT
46 rushing attempts
150 yards
2 TD
QB 24 in typical PPR

---

The projections I've seen for Murray are indeed similar to Wentzs rookie season, but with a slight uptick in TDs (20-22) and rushing yards (400-500)

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:55 pm
by Blueboy
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:30 pm
Carson Wentzs rookie season:

379 / 607
62.4%
3782 yards
6.23 YPA
16 TD
14 INT
46 rushing attempts
150 yards
2 TD
QB 24 in typical PPR

---

The projections I've seen for Murray are indeed similar to Wentzs rookie season, but with a slight uptick in TDs (20-22) and rushing yards (400-500)
I forgot he had 607 passing attempts, good lord.

Regardless, I'd say stats in that range -- coupled with tape that shows the flashes of potential we expect -- would be a "good" rookie season outcome.

Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:54 pm
by Cult of Dionysus
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:30 pm
Carson Wentzs rookie season:

379 / 607
62.4%
3782 yards
6.23 YPA
16 TD
14 INT
46 rushing attempts
150 yards
2 TD
QB 24 in typical PPR

---

The projections I've seen for Murray are indeed similar to Wentzs rookie season, but with a slight uptick in TDs (20-22) and rushing yards (400-500)
My guess is that he will have fewer attempts, slightly fewer yards, and about 500 yards rushing. I do think he might get more TDs as well.