Floor/Ceiling for Murray

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:08 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:50 pm
Murray's ceiling is a league winner...this year.
His floor is something close to Baker Mayfield.


Air Raid is the present and future of the NFL. The teams that are running concepts from it have been putting up numbers. Murray is going into a system that he already knows and Arizona has a bunch of weapons (Fitzgerald, Kirk, Johnson, Isabella) that can get open quickly. Arizona is another one of those teams whose defense isn't that great and has a sketchy offensive line. They may have to pass a lot to win games.

The height stuff doesn't worry me at all. The league has changed. We've seen Brees be successful. We've seen Wilson be successful. There are plenty of rules in place that favor the QB and offensive players. These are different times.
I don't think this is accurate at all. To say there is no chance he struggles at all, which is basically what you are insinuating with this floor prediction. The Air Raid may have concepts that work in tandem with other things, but we don't yet know that it will work in an all out scenario. We haven't seen it yet, we don't know. It's a possibility that it is the future of the NFL, but this post is just way too matter of fact. Sure, Wilson and Brees succeeded, but they are the exceptions, not the norm.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Phaded » Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:25 pm


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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby MrUbuto » Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:45 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:50 pm
Murray's ceiling is a league winner...this year.
His floor is something close to Baker Mayfield.
Cmon on man.. lol :roll:

Baker had an all time great NFL rookie season.

I cant totally dismiss the first comment I mean.. sure. Thst comment can mean a lot. Maybe he fill in for arods bye and gets ya a big win. Maybe he does have +4000 +1000 +50

But his FLOOR is Baker. Peyton, drew bress, Brady, MONTANA entering the league today as a 20 year old doesn't have the floor of the best rookie season of all time. Lol
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Pullo Vision » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:08 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:32 am
Super off topic but I just noticed the 4 gold stars that FantasyFreak has gives him the rank of DEGENERATE.

That's amazing. :lol:
Tangenting off your tangent, I didn't need to see his DLF forum profile to know FantasyFreak was a Fantasy Degenerate.
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:11 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:08 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:50 pm
Murray's ceiling is a league winner...this year.
His floor is something close to Baker Mayfield.


Air Raid is the present and future of the NFL. The teams that are running concepts from it have been putting up numbers. Murray is going into a system that he already knows and Arizona has a bunch of weapons (Fitzgerald, Kirk, Johnson, Isabella) that can get open quickly. Arizona is another one of those teams whose defense isn't that great and has a sketchy offensive line. They may have to pass a lot to win games.

The height stuff doesn't worry me at all. The league has changed. We've seen Brees be successful. We've seen Wilson be successful. There are plenty of rules in place that favor the QB and offensive players. These are different times.
I don't think this is accurate at all. To say there is no chance he struggles at all, which is basically what you are insinuating with this floor prediction. The Air Raid may have concepts that work in tandem with other things, but we don't yet know that it will work in an all out scenario. We haven't seen it yet, we don't know. It's a possibility that it is the future of the NFL, but this post is just way too matter of fact. Sure, Wilson and Brees succeeded, but they are the exceptions, not the norm.
I didn't say he wouldn't struggle. I just think he's going to be really good in an offense that he has a ton of experience with. It's a great script for him. I really think he can push Baker Mayfield's season and has the upside to be a league winner this year. He's a great late round target in redraft.

And frankly, the league now is a better situation for small QB's to succeed than it was when Brees or Wilson arrived. I don't think any small QB can succeed, but someone with Murray's talent and skill definitely has a high chance to do so.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:14 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:11 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:08 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:50 pm
Murray's ceiling is a league winner...this year.
His floor is something close to Baker Mayfield.


Air Raid is the present and future of the NFL. The teams that are running concepts from it have been putting up numbers. Murray is going into a system that he already knows and Arizona has a bunch of weapons (Fitzgerald, Kirk, Johnson, Isabella) that can get open quickly. Arizona is another one of those teams whose defense isn't that great and has a sketchy offensive line. They may have to pass a lot to win games.

The height stuff doesn't worry me at all. The league has changed. We've seen Brees be successful. We've seen Wilson be successful. There are plenty of rules in place that favor the QB and offensive players. These are different times.
I don't think this is accurate at all. To say there is no chance he struggles at all, which is basically what you are insinuating with this floor prediction. The Air Raid may have concepts that work in tandem with other things, but we don't yet know that it will work in an all out scenario. We haven't seen it yet, we don't know. It's a possibility that it is the future of the NFL, but this post is just way too matter of fact. Sure, Wilson and Brees succeeded, but they are the exceptions, not the norm.
I didn't say he wouldn't struggle. I just think he's going to be really good in an offense that he has a ton of experience with. It's a great script for him.
OK. I just think that Baker's season last year is closer to his ceiling than his floor. His floor obviously is much lower than setting the rookie record for passing TD's. I agree going to an offense he knows is good for him, I just think the talent at the WR position is sketchy at best this year, with an over the Hill Fitz, Kirk who we don't really know about that much yet, and a couple of rookies, on top of a bad OL. There is such a wide range of outcomes for this offense, from very good to very bad.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Sriracha » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:19 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:14 pm

OK. I just think that Baker's season last year is closer to his ceiling than his floor. His floor obviously is much lower than setting the rookie record for passing TD's. I agree going to an offense he knows is good for him, I just think the talent at the WR position is sketchy at best this year, with an over the Hill Fitz, Kirk who we don't really know about that much yet, and a couple of rookies, on top of a bad OL. There is such a wide range of outcomes for this offense, from very good to very bad.
Not to take anything away from Baker (Who is a complete baller), but his hot streak coincided with a massive streak of terrible defenses after terrible defenses. Murray's path to fantasy relevance in year 1 is likely going to involve his legs moreso than his arm.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:22 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:14 pm
OK. I just think that Baker's season last year is closer to his ceiling than his floor. His floor obviously is much lower than setting the rookie record for passing TD's. I agree going to an offense he knows is good for him, I just think the talent at the WR position is sketchy at best this year, with an over the Hill Fitz, Kirk who we don't really know about that much yet, and a couple of rookies, on top of a bad OL. There is such a wide range of outcomes for this offense, from very good to very bad.
I think he has the potential to have a better season than Baker. He's in a much better position to succeed in an offense he already knows. Arizona's WR's aren't bad. Fitz, Kirk and Isabella can all get open quickly and run solid routes or better. Johnson is an elite receiving back as well. Kingsbury is going to do a good job of getting these guys in space quickly.

I'll scale back on his floor some, but I think the upside is really high this year for him with a good floor as well.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:49 pm

Pullo Vision wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:08 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:32 am
Super off topic but I just noticed the 4 gold stars that FantasyFreak has gives him the rank of DEGENERATE.

That's amazing. :lol:
Tangenting off your tangent, I didn't need to see his DLF forum profile to know FantasyFreak was a Fantasy Degenerate.
:biggrin:

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Phaded » Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:50 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:19 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:14 pm

OK. I just think that Baker's season last year is closer to his ceiling than his floor. His floor obviously is much lower than setting the rookie record for passing TD's. I agree going to an offense he knows is good for him, I just think the talent at the WR position is sketchy at best this year, with an over the Hill Fitz, Kirk who we don't really know about that much yet, and a couple of rookies, on top of a bad OL. There is such a wide range of outcomes for this offense, from very good to very bad.
Not to take anything away from Baker (Who is a complete baller), but his hot streak coincided with a massive streak of terrible defenses after terrible defenses. Murray's path to fantasy relevance in year 1 is likely going to involve his legs moreso than his arm.
Baker also set that record starting 13.5 games.
I think to say Kyler has a floor of Baker is incredibly optimistic.

There are massive red flags for Kyler; his upside is through the roof but he is not without his faults.

Odds are - he gets killed and injured year one if he relies on his legs too much.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:52 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:50 pm
Murray's ceiling is a league winner...this year.
His floor is something close to Baker Mayfield.
:crazy:
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby remedy29 » Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:54 am

Athletic, fast QBs put up fantasy points, especially in their first year starting. On top of that, Murray is a great passer.
These type of QBs always have success fantasy points wise. Murray has a great chance at being QB1 this year and arguably should already be ranked in the top 12.
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby hockeyBjj » Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:53 am

Floor is busting his first year, getting hurt scrambling too much, and washing out of the league entirely after a couple more seasons. Might call up his baseball contacts.

Ceiling for 2019 I would say is what Baker did in his starts. Maybe a hair better. 17.5 ppg, QB 15-10

Ceiling beyond that is impossible to say
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:58 am

hockeyBjj wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:53 am
Floor is busting his first year, getting hurt scrambling too much, and washing out of the league entirely after a couple more seasons. Might call up his baseball contacts.

Ceiling for 2019 I would say is what Baker did in his starts. Maybe a hair better. 17.5 ppg, QB 15-10

Ceiling beyond that is impossible to say
Pretty much. He's definitely and exciting prospect, but certainly not "can't miss". Those prospects are few in far between. The last "can't miss prospect", where it was pretty much universally agreed upon, I believe, would be Andrew Luck. Murray has such a wide range of outcomes, it's going to be interesting.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:56 pm

Bump. Just wanted to say I do like Kyler, but thought some comments around here were a bit out of whack. The floor was a lot lower than some would have wanted. Kyler is bumping his FF totals in the past few weeks with his legs. However he has throw 4 TD's in 201 attempts. That's 1 TD for every 50 attempts. He's got a long way to go, and he just simply has not lived up to some of the off season hype people were throwing at him. Everybody knew the situation he was coming into. People talking Baker's rookie year as his floor, top 5 QB, league winner etc. Maybe the 2nd half will be different, but to this point, it seems the hype got out of control. Kyler is still a back end QB1, but volume and garbage time, are mostly the reason. I think the idea that he was going to light the league on fire was slightly misguided. That's all.


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