Floor/Ceiling for Murray

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MrUbuto
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby MrUbuto » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:08 pm

The guy is tiny. Even by baseball standards. His floor is literally a smear on the floor
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:13 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:08 pm
The guy is tiny. Even by baseball standards. His floor is literally a smear on the floor
A fast smear, though. Are you starting a Kyler "smear campaign", on this board? :wink:
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby MrUbuto » Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:19 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:13 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:08 pm
The guy is tiny. Even by baseball standards. His floor is literally a smear on the floor
A fast smear, though. Are you starting a Kyler "smear campaign", on this board? :wink:
Yea sure. Why not. I'll be that guy.
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby honcho55 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:53 am

Well, this thread is a perfect example of why I dislike the terms floor and ceiling in FF.

In my estimation, the worst possible outcome is that he can’t transition to play at a starting QB level in the NFL, ever, period. I get that the idea is to project a ‘reasonable’ worst case scenario, but... it is entirely reasonable that he’s possible just a huge bust, imo.

Likewise his “ceiling”. I think it’s just as reasonable to argue that it’s very very high. HOF. Why not?

I just don’t see the value in locating ceilings and floors, I guess. I *do* pay attention to how wide of an outcome range a guy might have, but end of the day valuations are determined by how I actually project them to perform.

Anyways after all of that, I must admit I don’t have much of a take on Murray. I was pretty set at QB in all my leagues prior to rookie draft this year so didn’t really do much homework.
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -4 for INT
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start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. Roster 15, 2 IR. keep 10 every year (must keep one each pos) *transitioning to more keepers/full dyno over a couple years

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ArrylT » Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:35 am

I think I get what you're saying, however I feel that projected floors & ceilings, like everything, have their purpose (within reason).

I think it is important, at least for players you're interested in owning, to have benchmarks for those players. That way you can adjust your valuations based on how they reach those benchmarks. Those benchmarks should be based on the information you have on hand at the time, with a dash of future prognostication added*.

The key, for me at least, is to have reasonable projections. I guess reasonable will vary from person to person, but I just mean that their floor & ceiling should be set at levels that are feasible, so that you do not have to make a major adjustment to their valuation, without a strong reason.

So for example a Kyler Murray owner could say I feel his floor this year should be similar to QB24 (aka low end QB2) but I hope his ceiling will be closer to QB12 (ala low end QB1). However if a Kyler Murray owner puts his floor ar QB6 and ceiling at QB1 - and then Murray, for whatever reason, does not reach even the projected floor ...

I think it is just as obvious that Murray owners hope that his eventual long-term ceiling would be top 3 QB and he'd be competing with Mahomes & Mayfield for that #1 spot. The point is rather to ensure that you feel comfortable he gets to that level, by setting these benchmarks as stepping stones. Sort of akin to climbing Mount Everest. You do not expect to reach the pinnacle** immediately, but only after length preparation and stops along the way. And lots of climbers fail to ever reach the summit.

* - Example: Its plausible to assume in Murrays case that they will continue to improve the O-Line around him in Year II

** - I am sure someone will mention well Mahomes did it, except that he did not (a) do it his rookie year but after almost a full year learning behind Alex Smith and (b) there were circumstances that dictated why & how he was able to reach such lofty heights early on.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:01 pm

I too like the question regarding floor for Murray because in my honest opinion his floor could legitimately be the basement.

Over the last 6 or 7 year we have seen quarterbacks get a bit small and A LOT more mobile. But at a certain point I mean this has to end right? Like if we extrapolate it all the way out to a 5foot nothing kid that weights 138lbs we can all agree I dont care how fast you are that poor kid will get broken.

But where is that line? 5 foot 2? 5 foot 5? 5 foot 8 and 7/8s...

Basically when we find that line we will know and I'm wondering if we haven't just found it.

The trend of smaller and smaller will blow up eventually.
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:08 pm

I think if you look at history, there is reason to suggest Murray's floor next season is actually pretty high. When running QB's first hit the NFL, they have usually been a QB1 during their rookie/first year as a starter. Cam, RG3, Vince Young (yes that shocked me), Lamar Jackson was a QB1 the during his stretch as a starter last season, Josh Allen when healthy, and Kaepernick was a QB1 when he finally took over.

The larger issue is projecting Kyler Murray beyond that. You can't run forever in this league. Will he be able to beat you consistently from the pocket? How will he handle the hits at this level at his size? Based on the recent history of running QBs drafted highly, I am actually leaning toward Murray's floor next season being a QB1. However, I don't know if he can sustain that for a career. Once teams get film on him and that offense, year 2 may be a big time struggle for him. It's the beyond 2019 that I literally don't know how to evaluate.
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RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:32 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:08 pm
I think if you look at history, there is reason to suggest Murray's floor next season is actually pretty high. When running QB's first hit the NFL, they have usually been a QB1 during their rookie/first year as a starter. Cam, RG3, Vince Young (yes that shocked me), Lamar Jackson was a QB1 the during his stretch as a starter last season, Josh Allen when healthy, and Kaepernick was a QB1 when he finally took over.

The larger issue is projecting Kyler Murray beyond that. You can't run forever in this league. Will he be able to beat you consistently from the pocket? How will he handle the hits at this level at his size? Based on the recent history of running QBs drafted highly, I am actually leaning toward Murray's floor next season being a QB1. However, I don't know if he can sustain that for a career. Once teams get film on him and that offense, year 2 may be a big time struggle for him. It's the beyond 2019 that I literally don't know how to evaluate.
That's sort of my point for him not being a QB one. He certainly isn't going to catch anyone by surprise. We have seen plenty of these fast running QBs succeed early and catch teams a bit flat footed. I dont think he'll have that luxury and also has the misfortune of being much smaller than all the names you've listed above.
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:35 am

jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:08 pm
I think if you look at history, there is reason to suggest Murray's floor next season is actually pretty high. When running QB's first hit the NFL, they have usually been a QB1 during their rookie/first year as a starter. Cam, RG3, Vince Young (yes that shocked me), Lamar Jackson was a QB1 the during his stretch as a starter last season, Josh Allen when healthy, and Kaepernick was a QB1 when he finally took over.
- Newton is the only player on that list that didn't have multiple seasons as a collegiate starter

- the history for rookie-season QBs that had only one season as a collegiate starter isn't promising; Newton was an exception, the rule -- when they've been year one starters -- is closer to Trubisky's rookie season

- Vince Young's rookie season was high floor? 50% completion percentage, 2199 yards passing, 12 TDs, 13 picks. 550 yards and 7 TDs rushing, but even adding that to his totals, he was still an over-hyped game-manager with some highlights that got more Sportscenter attention than he deserved

- Josh Allen was terrible or injured for two-thirds of the season. You can't just take the last third as qualification for claiming his entire rookie season was 'high floor'

- Kaepernick had five pass attempts and -2 rushing yards as a rookie

- none of your comparisons are Doug Flutie sized; there's still only one other QB in modern NFL history with Murray's approximate height to have a good rookie year (or a good pro career) -- this faith people have that Murray's NFL prospect profile is safe just because Russell Wilson exists continues to amaze me
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby MrUbuto » Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:05 am

Exactly. And Russell went to a ready to win seahawks team with a world class defense and running game. He wasn't asked to do much and if he was the defenses weren't scheming for it.

Murray will have a massive target on his back
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby jenkins.math » Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:12 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:35 am
jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:08 pm
I think if you look at history, there is reason to suggest Murray's floor next season is actually pretty high. When running QB's first hit the NFL, they have usually been a QB1 during their rookie/first year as a starter. Cam, RG3, Vince Young (yes that shocked me), Lamar Jackson was a QB1 the during his stretch as a starter last season, Josh Allen when healthy, and Kaepernick was a QB1 when he finally took over.
- Newton is the only player on that list that didn't have multiple seasons as a collegiate starter

- the history for rookie-season QBs that had only one season as a collegiate starter isn't promising; Newton was an exception, the rule -- when they've been year one starters -- is closer to Trubisky's rookie season
We are specifically talking about running QBs, not all QBs.

- Vince Young's rookie season was high floor? 50% completion percentage, 2199 yards passing, 12 TDs, 13 picks. 550 yards and 7 TDs rushing, but even adding that to his totals, he was still an over-hyped game-manager with some highlights that got more Sportscenter attention than he deserved
VY was a QB1 his rookie year. You can be a bad NFL player but still be fantasy relevant. Just like you can be a good NFL player but not a fantasy stud ala Todd Gurley with Jeff Fisher.

- Josh Allen was terrible or injured for two-thirds of the season. You can't just take the last third as qualification for claiming his entire rookie season was 'high floor'
My claim was when healthy. If you want to argue sample size, cool, but my original point stands. I think over his last 6 games he was the number 1 overall QB. Why? His rushing ability.

- Kaepernick had five pass attempts and -2 rushing yards as a rookie
I said "rookie/first year as a starter". His first year as a full time starter, where did Kaep end up? Oh yeah, QB1.

- none of your comparisons are Doug Flutie sized; there's still only one other QB in modern NFL history with Murray's approximate height to have a good rookie year (or a good pro career) -- this faith people have that Murray's NFL prospect profile is safe just because Russell Wilson exists continues to amaze me
Funny that you quoted part of my post and conveniently left out that I'm concerned about beyond 2019 for Kyler Murray. I even mentioned size as an obstacle. I can see him having initial success with his rushing ability and an offense that wants to spread you out and throw the ball all over the place (presumably). Whether that can be sustained is completely different though, which I alluded to. What concerns me about that list is VY, Kaep, and RG3 were done after a handful of seasons in the league. Too early to tell on the others, but if Allen and Lamar don't improve as passers, they won't be fantasy relevant in 4 years either.
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RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
TE: Njoku, Jonnu
K: Slye
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DL: Heyward
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:27 am

The thing that worries me, beyond the size concerns, is the lack of experience. ninotoreS has mentioned this at length. The other part of this is that he had his only full year as a starter in college behind one of the best OL in the country. He will be playing against much better and faster defenses this year, with an OL that will not provide him the lanes or time his line did last year. Not having good passing lanes matters a lot more if you are 5 foot 10 than if you are 6 foot 4. The argument that he didn't have a lot of batted balls last year is because he was given such a clean pocket almost all the time. He can overcome these things, but I think he will struggle to throw year 1 due to these factors. On top of adjusting to the NFL game, he's going to have to adjust to not having clean pockets all the time. I can see him having better stats than his quality of play would suggest, as teams sit back in soft zones like Alabama did in the 2nd half, and he can pad his stats a bit once the game is out of reach.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby MrUbuto » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:32 am

Exactly

I think we are all just looking at the last few years with the success of Deshaun, Baker and Lamar to an extent who all had some concerns coming out of college, valid ones too that proved to so far not really effect fantasy value.

That in no way cancels out Murray's very real question Mark's.

I'm a big kyler fan and was planning to take him near the top of the 2nd if he was there like Baker was last year but based on what I'm seeing so far there is no chance he falls to me and that is more than fine with me.

Much rather have a guy like fant or AJB than a 5"9 QB

Super off topic but I just noticed the 4 gold stars that FantasyFreak has gives him the rank of DEGENERATE.

That's amazing. :lol:
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:50 pm

Murray's ceiling is a league winner...this year.
His floor is something close to Baker Mayfield.

Air Raid is the present and future of the NFL. The teams that are running concepts from it have been putting up numbers. Murray is going into a system that he already knows and Arizona has a bunch of weapons (Fitzgerald, Kirk, Johnson, Isabella) that can get open quickly. Arizona is another one of those teams whose defense isn't that great and has a sketchy offensive line. They may have to pass a lot to win games.

The height stuff doesn't worry me at all. The league has changed. We've seen Brees be successful. We've seen Wilson be successful. There are plenty of rules in place that favor the QB and offensive players. These are different times.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:52 pm

Interestingly enough both thoughts about Vince Young are correct - he was indeed Q12 in his rookie year at the same time that what he did in his rookie year would not be good enough today.

He was QB12 with 242 points in 2006. 242 points in 2018 would make him QB22 - pretty much identical to Josh Allen. In fact his stat line is very similar to what Josh Allen did in 10 games. Whether or not Young would have had more attempts today than in 2006 we'll never know - just a QB that does what Vince Young does in their rookie year today is not likely to inspire fantasy owners - and I'd expect the debate going into his sophomore year to be similar to the debate regarding Lamar Jackson.

I've already expressed my thoughts about Kyler Murray on a previous thread, and I think there is no need to repeat them atm other than to note that none of my concerns involved his height. I'm more concerned about his ability to take a hit (amongst the other concerns) - I think speed wise he is pretty similar to Lamar Jackson (who ran a 4.34) and we saw Lamar Jackson take a lot of risky hits in his rookie season. Regardless that has nothing to do with his floor or ceiling, apart from the likelyhood he can play a full 16 games to reach those benchmarks.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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