Floor/Ceiling for Murray

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Vcize » Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:04 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:56 pm
Bump. Just wanted to say I do like Kyler, but thought some comments around here were a bit out of whack. The floor was a lot lower than some would have wanted. Kyler is bumping his FF totals in the past few weeks with his legs. However he has throw 4 TD's in 201 attempts. That's 1 TD for every 50 attempts. He's got a long way to go, and he just simply has not lived up to some of the off season hype people were throwing at him. Everybody knew the situation he was coming into. People talking Baker's rookie year as his floor, top 5 QB, league winner etc. Maybe the 2nd half will be different, but to this point, it seems the hype got out of control.
Well that was kind of the whole point. His legs give him both a higher floor and higher ceiling. He needs only be a mediocre passing QB to be a good FF QB and he was a better than mediocre passing prospect.

So far the real outlier for Kyler has been Arizona's AWFUL conversion rate inside the 10. If they were even mediocre in that respect he'd be in the top 5 in scoring right now and even with them among the league worst at it he is still QB8 as a developing rookie. The low conversion rate inside the 10 is something that is both kind of flukey and somewhat easily correctable.

I don't know why you're trying to pick on the "Baker's rookie season is his floor" lingo when he's scoring 22ppg so far while Baker put up 19ppg as a rookie.
Team 1 (12 team FFPC)
QB: Wentz
RB: Cook, A Jones, Mixon, Kerryon, Hunt, Hill, Drake
WR: OBJ, Lockett, ARob, Woods, ARob, Preston
TE: Howard, Cook, Goedert, Njoku, Knox

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QB: Wilson, Dak
RB: Fournette, Kamara, Michel, Kerryon, Blount
WR: Beckham, Thielen, Enunwa, M Williams, Beasely, Amendola
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:08 pm

Vcize wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:04 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:56 pm
Bump. Just wanted to say I do like Kyler, but thought some comments around here were a bit out of whack. The floor was a lot lower than some would have wanted. Kyler is bumping his FF totals in the past few weeks with his legs. However he has throw 4 TD's in 201 attempts. That's 1 TD for every 50 attempts. He's got a long way to go, and he just simply has not lived up to some of the off season hype people were throwing at him. Everybody knew the situation he was coming into. People talking Baker's rookie year as his floor, top 5 QB, league winner etc. Maybe the 2nd half will be different, but to this point, it seems the hype got out of control.
Well that was kind of the whole point. His legs give him both a higher floor and higher ceiling. He needs only be a mediocre passing QB to be a good FF QB and he was a better than mediocre passing prospect.

So far the real outlier for Kyler has been Arizona's AWFUL conversion rate inside the 10. If they were even mediocre in that respect he'd be in the top 5 in scoring right now and even with them among the league worst at it he is still QB8 as a developing rookie. That is something that is both kind of flukey and somewhat easily correctable.

I don't know why you're trying to pick on the "Baker's rookie season is his floor" lingo when he's scoring 22ppg so far while Baker put up 19ppg as a rookie.
Depends on format. 6 Pts per TD, which I tend to play more, because it reward QB's for their passing rather than their legs, he's 11-13, each league differing slightly. The amount of attempts and garbage time is an also probably never going to get better than it is now, so that will off set the poor conversion rate. He hasn't lived up to the hype some put on him. He's basically doing what the reasonable expectations were of him.
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Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ArrylT » Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:37 am

As far as I can tell, in this thread, the most optimistic ceilings, for 2019 alone, that I saw, were low to mid QB1 range. I have seen posts in other threads where Kyler Murrays upside was posted to be greater than that, but in this thread I think most owners were somewhat cautious in terms of the ceiling they were projecting for 2019.

Regardless, this is about what I was expecting, at least in terms of points scored. At the moment he is, again scoring format dependant, which for QBs has a wide range, likely to be somewhere in the QB 11-15 range.

If going by the rank, it is a little higher (ie 2-3 spots) than I personally had been projecting, but as always there are unexpected developments. Whether it is the slow starts of guys like Cousins, Rodgers or Mayfield or injuries to Brees, Newton & Roethlisberger, a vacuum does currently exist where others QBs can & did take advantage.

So from a fantasy perspective this is a good start imo for Murray. However FantasyFreak and others are correct in surmising that Kyler Murrays start would not be akin to Mayfield, Watsons, Mahomes or so forth. His rookie season has been pretty comparable to Carson Wentz though, an outcome that was mentioned earlier in this thread.

Carson Wentzs rookie season:

379 / 607
62.4%
3782 yards
6.23 YPA
16 TD
14 INT
46 rushing attempts
150 yards
2 TD
QB 24 in typical PPR

Kyler Murray rookie season (projection based on 5 starts):

400 / 640
62.7%
4200 yards
6.5 YPA
13 TD
13 INT

Where he diverges is his rushing attempts are going to be more in line with what a full season of Watson in 2017 might have been
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Blueboy » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:48 pm

Blueboy wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:21 pm
As an owner that traded Goff to take him 1.01, I'm cautiously expecting a season of about 20-25 TDs, 15 INTs, 3,000-3,500 yards and ~400 rushing yards. Something similar to Wentz' rookie season.That's pretty close to what most seem to have as his floor.

I think we're going to see growing pains in AZ, both from the coaching staff and the rookie-led offense. Kyler will probably miss a few games with minor injuries, lose some games due to rookie mistakes, and flash a lot of upside. Much more excited about his Year 2/3.

That said, I agree with others who have is ceiling as HOF Career. The talent is there. I'd just tamper the breaks on early optimism -- he's in a tough spot as a rookie.
Thus far it looks like I overestimated the TD:INT ratio and underestimated his yardage. I'm surprised at how awful AZ has been in the red zone, frankly. Hard to judge with how lacking the roster is as a whole, but not liking what I've seen of Kingsbury so far.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ArrylT » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:42 am

I guess we found Murrays floor game for this year (whereas last week showed what you might expect more regularly in 2020 and going forward).
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby CGW » Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:02 am

He's 8th in my standard ppr scoring league and 12th in a league that gives bonus to passing TDs. I'm very happy with my investment so far in SF, as I think the combination of his running ability and high volume gives him great opportunity going forward.

I drafted him with the expectation that it would likely take a year or two for the Cardinals to work out the kinks and beef up the Oline protection. He's right on pace to what I expected, a mid to back end WR1 as a rookie.
12 Team | Superflex | PPR | 6pt passing TD
25 Roster Spots
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold
RB | Gurley, Mixon, Henderson, Barber, R. Freeman, R. Jones, Singletary, Ballage, D. Thompson
WR | Adams, Evans, Harry, Washington, D. Johnson, Conley, Slayton
TE | Herndon, Andrews, Everett, Sternberger, Moreau

10 Team | Superflex | PPR
25 Roster Spots
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Rodgers, Murray, Foles, Minshew
RB | Chubb, Montgomery, Guice, Singletary, Ballage, Edmonds, Murray, Edwards, R. Jones, D. Thompson
WR | Cooks, Golladay, Godwin, Kirk, M. Brown, Arcega-Whiteside, David Moore, Cain
TE | Henry, Herndon, Andrews

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ArrylT » Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:27 pm

More in depth thoughts on Kyler Murray - basically an expansion of my brief comments there & a response to some of the followup

----

I was sceptical that Murray could be an elite NFL QB from Day 1 and from a fantasy perspective be a QB1 year 1 - which is what the cost to acquire him seemed to suggest, if not top 6 QB from the get-go. If a team owned the 1.01 in a SF League and used it on Murray I have no problems with that - only if you wanted to own Murray and had to pay up to get the 1.01, it was not worth the cost imo to buy into the 1.01. Hopefully my posts over the months have accurately reflected that.

Re: Murray - I am really only focused on his fantasy value, but obviously his ability to develop plays into that. That is in part what I meant by my comments on the rookie review thread. I think that his season so far has had its ups & downs - hence the term progressive struggle - which was meant to suggest he's getting better but sort of the 2 steps forward 1 step back type variety, than the leaps & bounds better type.

There are things he is doing well. There are things he needs to improve. There are things the Cardinals need to improve if he is to improve. To me that is positive criticism, not negative or harsh.

Now going more into the fantasy side of the equation - I think that his standing so far - in terms of fantasy value - has some to do with the # of QBs that have missed time / changed landscape of the QBs since the draft. But that is obviously not Murrays fault. Just that when Mahomes, Ryan, Brees, Roethlisberger, Luck are added to the picture Murrays not a QB1 in terms of 2019 production.

Add in Winston, Prescott, Goff & Cousins and that is basically 9 more QBs who were projected to finish ahead of Murray in 2019 in scoring.

At the moment Mahomes, Ryan, Winston, Prescott, Goff & Cousins are all within striking distance of Murray and all have 1-3 less games played - except Cousins, but whom after his rough first 3 weeks has now been on a fantasy tear and is on a pace to finish top 6.

His fantasy scoring to date would have him as a high end QB2 if compared to 2018 Weeks 1-9. Basically to me as a rookie he is a QB2 with potential QB1 weeks and potential QB3 weeks. That does NOT mean he cannot become a QB1 or have a QB1 season, just that at the moment I do not have him in my top 12 QBs for either 2019 or for dynasty, except in longer range windows (3+ years).

So far Murray has - and this is dependant on your leagues scoring - had 2 QB1 weeks, 2 QB3 weeks and the remainder have been QB2 weeks. Which to me, confirms my belief that his rookie season should be treated, so far, as a QB2 season.

And none of this is meant to be an indictment against Kyler Murray - simply an argument that Murray is having a solid high QB2 rookie season, which is exactly what I believe I was expecting. Which is pretty encouraging long-term. Like I said, I would rather a rough up&down 1st season and improvement going forward (like we've seen with guys like Wentz, Carr, Goff & Jackson), than the path Mayfield is following at the moment.
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:49 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:54 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:30 pm
Carson Wentzs rookie season:

379 / 607
62.4%
3782 yards
6.23 YPA
16 TD
14 INT
46 rushing attempts
150 yards
2 TD
QB 24 in typical PPR

---

The projections I've seen for Murray are indeed similar to Wentzs rookie season, but with a slight uptick in TDs (20-22) and rushing yards (400-500)
My guess is that he will have fewer attempts, slightly fewer yards, and about 500 yards rushing. I do think he might get more TDs as well.
He's on pace to throw 4000, have a 2-1 TD INT ratio with about 15-20 TDs, and on pace to run for over 500 yards and add another 4 TDs on the ground.

And that's with a suspect line, a rookie NFL coach and a mixed bag of receiving options so far.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:17 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:27 pm
More in depth thoughts on Kyler Murray - basically an expansion of my brief comments there & a response to some of the followup

----

I was sceptical that Murray could be an elite NFL QB from Day 1 and from a fantasy perspective be a QB1 year 1 - which is what the cost to acquire him seemed to suggest, if not top 6 QB from the get-go. If a team owned the 1.01 in a SF League and used it on Murray I have no problems with that - only if you wanted to own Murray and had to pay up to get the 1.01, it was not worth the cost imo to buy into the 1.01. Hopefully my posts over the months have accurately reflected that.

Re: Murray - I am really only focused on his fantasy value, but obviously his ability to develop plays into that. That is in part what I meant by my comments on the rookie review thread. I think that his season so far has had its ups & downs - hence the term progressive struggle - which was meant to suggest he's getting better but sort of the 2 steps forward 1 step back type variety, than the leaps & bounds better type.

There are things he is doing well. There are things he needs to improve. There are things the Cardinals need to improve if he is to improve. To me that is positive criticism, not negative or harsh.

Now going more into the fantasy side of the equation - I think that his standing so far - in terms of fantasy value - has some to do with the # of QBs that have missed time / changed landscape of the QBs since the draft. But that is obviously not Murrays fault. Just that when Mahomes, Ryan, Brees, Roethlisberger, Luck are added to the picture Murrays not a QB1 in terms of 2019 production.

Add in Winston, Prescott, Goff & Cousins and that is basically 9 more QBs who were projected to finish ahead of Murray in 2019 in scoring.

At the moment Mahomes, Ryan, Winston, Prescott, Goff & Cousins are all within striking distance of Murray and all have 1-3 less games played - except Cousins, but whom after his rough first 3 weeks has now been on a fantasy tear and is on a pace to finish top 6.

His fantasy scoring to date would have him as a high end QB2 if compared to 2018 Weeks 1-9. Basically to me as a rookie he is a QB2 with potential QB1 weeks and potential QB3 weeks. That does NOT mean he cannot become a QB1 or have a QB1 season, just that at the moment I do not have him in my top 12 QBs for either 2019 or for dynasty, except in longer range windows (3+ years).

So far Murray has - and this is dependant on your leagues scoring - had 2 QB1 weeks, 2 QB3 weeks and the remainder have been QB2 weeks. Which to me, confirms my belief that his rookie season should be treated, so far, as a QB2 season.

And none of this is meant to be an indictment against Kyler Murray - simply an argument that Murray is having a solid high QB2 rookie season, which is exactly what I believe I was expecting. Which is pretty encouraging long-term. Like I said, I would rather a rough up&down 1st season and improvement going forward (like we've seen with guys like Wentz, Carr, Goff & Jackson), than the path Mayfield is following at the moment.
The amount of plays they are running, and the fact they are often trailing late in games will keep him FF relevant. Kyler has not had a TD pass in 5 out of his 9 games, but I am impressed with him overall in his rookie year.
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ArrylT » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:23 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:17 pm
The amount of plays they are running, and the fact they are often trailing late in games will keep him FF relevant. Kyler has not had a TD pass in 5 out of his 9 games, but I am impressed with him overall in his rookie year.
No argument there! Definitely not saying he is not already fantasy relevant - just that it is more of a rough boom/bust type than a safe plug n play type (imho). I do not think he has matched the hype (but thats my opinion) but has matched what should have been expected from his 1st season.
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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby notweswelker » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:05 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:23 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:17 pm
The amount of plays they are running, and the fact they are often trailing late in games will keep him FF relevant. Kyler has not had a TD pass in 5 out of his 9 games, but I am impressed with him overall in his rookie year.
No argument there! Definitely not saying he is not already fantasy relevant - just that it is more of a rough boom/bust type than a safe plug n play type (imho). I do not think he has matched the hype (but thats my opinion) but has matched what should have been expected from his 1st season.
He was hyped but he's the overall QB-7 on one of the worst five teams in the NFL.
He's in an offense that has magnitudes less talent than the Browns, with a similarly poor O-Line (arguably worse) and is making Baker Mayfield look like some CFL scrub by comparison. Put Beckham/Landry/Chubb on the Cardinals and Murray might be the QB1 or QB2.
Team 1: 10 Team SF
QB: Kyler Murray, M. Ryan, M. Stafford, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: DJ, Gurley, Barkley, Kerryon, Aaron Jones, M. Breida, Ito Smith
WR: OBJ, D. Adams, Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Callaway, Justin Watson, Preston Williams, Trey Quinn
TE: D. Waller, H. Henry, Jonnu Smith, Chris Herndon

Team 2 :14 Team SF
QB: Mahomes, Trubisky, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones
RB: Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary
WR: D. Adams, JuJu, Golladay, Trey Quinn, Justin Watson, Preston Williams
TE: Kittle, Njoku, Herndon

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby Valhalla » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:38 pm

So...people argue that Murray was just over-hyped, shouldn't have been drafted so highly.

Redo the rookie draft today. Where do you take him? It might be a lot higher than you expect. There won't be a lot of rookies you can list as "I'd definitely want to take this guy" before you get to Murray.

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby CGW » Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:20 pm

Valhalla wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:38 pm
So...people argue that Murray was just over-hyped, shouldn't have been drafted so highly.

Redo the rookie draft today. Where do you take him? It might be a lot higher than you expect. There won't be a lot of rookies you can list as "I'd definitely want to take this guy" before you get to Murray.
In SF, he's still my 1.01 and it's not close. He's a QB1-2 as a rookie and foreseeable future.
12 Team | Superflex | PPR | 6pt passing TD
25 Roster Spots
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold
RB | Gurley, Mixon, Henderson, Barber, R. Freeman, R. Jones, Singletary, Ballage, D. Thompson
WR | Adams, Evans, Harry, Washington, D. Johnson, Conley, Slayton
TE | Herndon, Andrews, Everett, Sternberger, Moreau

10 Team | Superflex | PPR
25 Roster Spots
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Rodgers, Murray, Foles, Minshew
RB | Chubb, Montgomery, Guice, Singletary, Ballage, Edmonds, Murray, Edwards, R. Jones, D. Thompson
WR | Cooks, Golladay, Godwin, Kirk, M. Brown, Arcega-Whiteside, David Moore, Cain
TE | Henry, Herndon, Andrews

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby ArrylT » Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:54 pm

Valhalla wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:38 pm
So...people argue that Murray was just over-hyped, shouldn't have been drafted so highly.

Redo the rookie draft today. Where do you take him? It might be a lot higher than you expect. There won't be a lot of rookies you can list as "I'd definitely want to take this guy" before you get to Murray.
I have already answered that. :)
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:27 pm
I was sceptical that Murray could be an elite NFL QB from Day 1 and from a fantasy perspective be a QB1 year 1 - which is what the cost to acquire him seemed to suggest, if not top 6 QB from the get-go. If a team owned the 1.01 in a SF League and used it on Murray I have no problems with that - only if you wanted to own Murray and had to pay up to get the 1.01, it was not worth the cost imo to buy into the 1.01. Hopefully my posts over the months have accurately reflected that.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Floor/Ceiling for Murray

Postby mild » Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:57 pm

CGW wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:20 pm
Valhalla wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:38 pm
So...people argue that Murray was just over-hyped, shouldn't have been drafted so highly.

Redo the rookie draft today. Where do you take him? It might be a lot higher than you expect. There won't be a lot of rookies you can list as "I'd definitely want to take this guy" before you get to Murray.
In SF, he's still my 1.01 and it's not close. He's a QB1-2 as a rookie and foreseeable future.
He definitely wasn't talking about SF. He should have gone 1.01 in every SF league. (Except mine, apparently, where the 1.01 galaxy-brained himself into N'Keal Harry - but who will now get the 1.01 again for his trouble/talent)

In 1QB... hard not to think redraft goes:
1. Jacobs
2. DK
3. Scary Terry
4. AJB ?
5. Miles Sanders ???
6. Hollywood Brown ?!?1?

I could see an owner wanting Kyler anywhere from 1.04 at this point if they had a QB need. He's going to be around for a long time.


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