Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts

[spa12397]

Who are your sleepers, Breakouts and Busts at each position:

Sleepers:

QB Nick Foles....Improved O-Line in Jax, a good running game and quality WRs, great Jax defense allows him to gamble a little

RB Justice Hill....Should get first crack at 3rd down back opportunities, and Ingram is older and could get dinged up

WR Devante Parker....Finally, Gase is gone, he is healthy, it could be his time

TE Jordan Reed.....He is healthy and has a rookie QB, so possibility for a lot of short routes to a trusted TE

Breakouts

QB Josh Allen...I think he has a great opportunity in Buffalo and started to show his skills late last year, WR core has improved and O-line has well

RB Kerryon Johnson..I think he will get the Lion share of the carries as well as some catches, should improve from last year

WR Dede Westbrook...M Lee is injured, i think Dede and Foles will make a nice Duo, 3 year bump will be proven with him

TE Evan Engram...seems obvious with OBJ gone, there are a lot of targets that are vacated, whether is Eli or Dan Jones, i can see an 80 -90 catch, 700 - 800 yard and 8-10 TD stat line for him



Busts

QB Ben Rothlisberger...I think he will miss A Brown more than everyone thinks, Juju will be nice but the rest of the cast will let him down

RB Todd Gurley...I think his knee needs surgery and i see it comng sometime soon, if 85% i see his work load going down and some D Henderson mixed in

WR Alshon Jeffrey...lots of new arrivals and Wentz loves Ertz as well, i see him possibly getting passed by JJAW mid season

TE Eric Ebron...I think he will be mixed in with Doyle (healthy) and maybe Alie Mo Cox and will lower his red zone targets

[bjd5211]

Great, another Henderson v Gurley thread

[spa12397]

Great, another Henderson v Gurley thread

Lol, hopefully, not, just looking for everyone's input on who they think will be a sleeper, Breakout or bust

I had 3 or 4 RBs in mind, but personally i dont trust gurley's knee

[dizzler]

Sleepers:

QB: Marcus Mariota - Prove it or lose it year and he's gonna come out swinging. IF(big key word) he stays healthy, I think we see a productive season from him. He gets Delanie back ( another sleeper of mine), bolstered the O-line, gave him a few more receiving options as well. If Henry can prove to be a threat and bring the safeties in the box, Mariota can have some flexibility to pass.

RB: Damien Harris - He is one injury away from considerable playing time and being the workhorse back that the Pats have needed.

WR: Keke Coutee - very efficient when he was healthy and overtakes Will Fuller by mid season as the #2

TE: Jack Doyle - out snapped Ebron when he returned and is a more overall threat at the TE position.

Breakouts:

QB : Desaun Watson - Offense will be a force to be reckoned with. Gets Fuller and Coutee back and made some improvements to the Oline so he has a little more protection. I project him as the QB1 this year.

RB: Kenyan Drake - everyone hates on the dude but he puts up numbers. His ADP is why he is a "sleeper" to me. That team is gunna be bad, no way around that. They will be passing a lot and on a bad O-line = less time to throw and more RB dump passes. PPR efficiency for Drake. I project him as a RB9-11

WR: DJ Moore - I feel he will have a monster season this year. Showed great skills and gets a healthy Cam back into the season. I project him as a WR15-20.

TE :OJ Howard - I'm ignoring the Bruce Arians doesn't use TE's narrative here and rebutting with that offense will be a powerful offense overall this year. Jameis can and will feed 2-3 mouths this season and OJ Howard has top 5 fantasy TE written all over him

Busts:

QB: Matt Stafford - Lions are heading into the anti Stafford era where he isn't throwing 50+ passes a game. Which is smart. Stafford also needed those attempts to keep his numbers consistently high. Finished last season as QB 20 and I believe he falls to 21-25 this season as that offense is overtaken by Kerryon.

RB: Nick Chubb - I've been saying this for a whole year and will continue to beat this to death. Chubb is not THAT talented. He is a straight line runner who excelled against bad Defensive teams. Sure he beat up TB, OAK, and ATL. But those are weak run defense team. BAL - 9 carries 24 yds. Houston - 9 carries 31 yds. He may be helped because all of the WR options this year but at some point I still stay true to he will be exposed. Hunt comes in and takes over by week 10 for the remainder of the year.

WR: Amari Cooper - I don't know if he is a true bust, but I think he finishes a lot lower than his ADP suggests.

TE: Jordan Reed - as in he BUSTS another injury out and is on the IR by week 4. I hope not, but being realistic it'll probably happen. I just don't have a bust candidate for this position just yet seeming everyone not top 3 were huge busts last year LOL.

[FantasyFreak]

Sleeper: Darrell Henderson

Breakout: Malcolm Brown

Bust: Todd Gurley

[blemly]

Sleeper: Darrell Henderson

Breakout: Malcolm Brown

Bust: Todd Gurley

Stop it!

[FantasyFreak]

Sleeper: Darrell Henderson

Breakout: Malcolm Brown

Bust: Todd Gurley

Stop it!

Just having fun.

[Phaded]

Bit deep into bourbon.. Also not giving this a ton of thought but here are my instincts:

Sleepers

QB - Carr
RB - Ballage
WR - Callaway
TE - Everett

Breakouts

QB - Winston
RB - Penny
WR - Fuller
TE - Gesicki

Busts

QB - Cam
RB - Conner
WR - Harry
TE - Hooper

[Bot101]

Sleepers

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Darwin Thompson
WR: Marquez Valdez-Scantling
TE: Chris Herndon

Breakouts:

QB: Dwayne Haskins
RB: Royce Freeman
WR: DJ Mooooooore
TE: OJ Howard


Busts:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Damien Williams
WR: Adam Thielen
TE: Zach Ertz

[Sriracha]

Sleeper:
QB - Marcus Mariota - Post Post Hype Sleeper. No QB has had more improvement around him than Mariota did this off-season. From Weaponry to protection he's going from bottom 5 to at least middle of the pack in both categories (with the upside for more). In addition to this he's coming into the season 12-15 lb's heavier which could help remedy the health issues he's faced throughout his career.
He was incorporated more into the run game last season which adds to his rushing floow. He's always had the ability to be a top flight QB, and now he finds himself in a situation that might allow him to reach it. It remains to be seen if he can put it together, but that's why he's here as a sleeper.

RB - Darrell Henderson, Justice Hill, Myles Gaskin, Devine Ozigbo - Rookie RB class has largely been left for dead; but Henderson and Hill are electrifying talents in their own right. If the Rams truly intend on limiting Gurley's workload, Henderson has the ability to be fantasy relevant with 10-15 touches. If Gurley can't go later in the season? He could be a league winner. Malcolm Brown would rotate as well, but I suspect that Henderson would be the lead back in that RBBC.

Mark Ingram isn't good, and those expecting him to hold onto the lead back role in BAL are playing with fire. Hill doesn't have the size to be a true workhorse, but I could see a 50/50 split between him and Ingram pretty easily; with his touches being vastly more valuable.

People have critiqued Gase for not featuring their most electrifying RB... but with a bottom 6% BMI I'm inclined to agree with im that Drake is just not a workhorse back. Which means that this is likely to be a timeshare with another RB. Most people point to Ballage in this regard, but even though he averaged 5.3 ypc last season; 75 of his 191 yards came on one play. He's just not a good between the tackles runner. Gaskins on the other hand has shown to be a much more natural RB, and has been a 1,000 yard rusher all of his seasons at UW. He also displayed a 3 down skillset, and his opportunity here is being severely underestimated.

WR - Jake Kumerow, Corey Coleman
Another player who's opportunity is being understimated. Kumerow is the forgotten guy battling for the WR2 spot in GB. Rodgers has raved about him, and he's shown chemistry with him last preseason before injuring his shoulder and starting on the PUP list. He's drawing rave reviews again for always being in the right place at the right time, and making the tough catches-- which is exactly the type of receiver Rodgers has made into a fantasy star in previous years.

Coleman is still a very talented receiver who's ego rubbed teams the wrong way and sent him down the path to humility. While many deem his Brown days as bust city; he was actually quite productive (before consecutive freak hand injuries) with the worst QB play in the NFL. Based on what he's showing with the Giants, his ego has shrunken down to size and after OBJ has left the building the vacated targets are there for any WR to step up and seize. Those prematurely penciling in Sterling Shepard are likely to be disappointed.

TE - Mark Andrews.. while not as exciting of an athlete as my main TE sleeper last season (George Kittle) he's still an upper percentile athlete and showed both the ball skills and athleticism necessary to succeed in the NFL last season. Most importantly, he was extremely productive as a rookie-- garnering 2.1 yards per route run which puts him in elite company at the TE position. For the same reasons I targeted Kittle last season (history breaking efficiency towards the end of the year) Andrews is also intriguing.

Breakout:
QB - Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins
RB - Rashaad Penny, Miles Sanders
WR - Christian Kirk, Corey Davis, Tyler Lockette, Sammy Watkins
TE - OJ Howard, Hunter Henry

Busts:
QB - Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger,
RB - Leveon Bell, Mark Ingram, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery
WR - Julien Edelman, Robert Woods
TE - Zach Ertz, George Kittle

Analysis to be added

[TheNuts]

Sleepers

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Darwin Thompson
WR: Marquez Valdez-Scantling
TE: Chris Herndon

Breakouts:

QB: Dwayne Haskins
RB: Royce Freeman
WR: DJ Mooooooore
TE: OJ Howard


Busts:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Damien Williams
WR: Adam Thielen
TE: Zach Ertz

Why Thielen?

[tstafford]

Why Thielen?

My guess - his numbers were down significantly down the stretch. It's all about expectations with Thielen. If you draft him (or own him) as a WR2 you've got a good shot at being happy. But that's a far cry from WR7 where he ended the season and WR1 where he was thru week 13 of 2018.

[bjd5211]

Ya, "bust" usually has a common perception as meaning a guy bottoming out and being completely useless, but I see it more as someone who falls short of expectations and the current value being placed upon him. I think Kittle is going to be an example of this and therefore be a "bust". He's still going to have a solid year but I think his numbers come down a little bit due to more weapons in the passing game and Jimmy not needing as much of a safety net as Beathard/Mullins. Meanwhile the other TEs "below" him (OJ/Njoku/Henry/Engram specifically) will all have seasons that are very similar if not superior to him and they cost a lot less at the moment in trade/draft value.

In short I think Kittle's current value and expectations are greater than what his actual production will be, and you can get what he's going to provide at a much cheaper price through another player.

[ericanadian]

Sleeper

QB - Marcus Mariota

Henry will be the lead back and help establish a run game that was missing for a big part of last year. Walker will help with that and will also provide additional passing options alongside Brown. Mariota has the tools. I would put him in breakout, but I think the offense will limit him a bit.

RB - D’Onta Foreman

The team is going to want to see what he brings to the table and I think they’ll like what they see. His volume will be a bit limited as the team has incentive to run Miller into the ground on his last year under contract, but Foreman will establish himself as the team’s future at the position.

WR - Scotty Miller

I think they’ll move Godwin back to the outside when they see the lift Miller gives them relative to Perriman. I’m not entirely convinced that Miller can’t do some damage on the outside with his wheels and his proclivity for go routes out of the slot in college.

TE - Ricky Seals-Jones

Or maybe Maxx Williams if he figures out how to stay healthy. I think the Arizona TE situation has some upside.

Breakout

QB - DeShaun Watson

Not sure I see a breakout at the position, but Watson seems like the most likely to do so.

RB - Derrius Guice

Coming back from injury, he’ll cast aside Peterson in a hurry. The team will lean on him with Haskins likely to be getting most of the work at starter. It won’t be pretty, but it will put points on the board.

WR - Corey Davis

Seeing less double coverage along with a functional Mariota will allow him to take the next step.

TE - Mark Andrews

Solid rookie season. Think he’ll build on that.

Bust

QB - Baker Mayfield

Looked pretty mediocre when confronted with decent defenses. Too much hype.

RB - Kerryon Johnson

I think Riddick is done in Detroit and a lot of people will assume this means the ascension of Kerryon as a 3 down back. Unfortunately, I think the Lions envision him as the lighting in a two back system and we’ll see a combination of Anderson & Zenner providing the thunder.

WR - Geronimo Allison

Already pushed to the slot by MVS. I don’t think he’ll hold off the combination of Moore, ESB & Kumerow for long. One of them will move past him simply because he’s not that good.

TE - Eric Ebron

His breakout seemed volume driven and they have other option. TY Hilton caught a higher percentage of his passes as the teams deep threat.

[Bot101]

Why Thielen?

My guess - his numbers were down significantly down the stretch. It's all about expectations with Thielen. If you draft him (or own him) as a WR2 you've got a good shot at being happy. But that's a far cry from WR7 where he ended the season and WR1 where he was thru week 13 of 2018.

Exactly. Thielen owners are very defensive of him. Its almost like they forget how different the second half of last season was compared to the first half. Hes not going to fall off a cliff but expectations should be tempered.