Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts

[Valhalla]

Sleeper - Jameis Winston. He seems like the guy who would be sleeping during team meetings.
Breakout - Kyler Murray. With puberty will come the skin problems.
Busts - Brandin Cooks. That guy is going to be taking advantage of busted coverage all season.

[TheNuts]

Why Thielen?

My guess - his numbers were down significantly down the stretch. It's all about expectations with Thielen. If you draft him (or own him) as a WR2 you've got a good shot at being happy. But that's a far cry from WR7 where he ended the season and WR1 where he was thru week 13 of 2018.

Exactly. Thielen owners are very defensive of him. Its almost like they forget how different the second half of last season was compared to the first half. Hes not going to fall off a cliff but expectations should be tempered.

I hope you weren't referring to me. Im not a Thielen owner and was just genuinely curious as to the reasoning. He fell to the end of a 4th in a startup which shows how the community values him. I do get that he fell off, but Diggs is an above average injury risk

[ninotoreS]

Little chance Jeffery gets benched this season -- he's getting paid too much. I think it's something like 15 million? He hasn't been lighting the world on fire statistically, but he's been useful for Philly.

However, if he doesn't post top 10-15 numbers this year, I think there's a real chance he's waived next off-season if he won't restructure. Philly would save 9 million.

In redraft, he's around WR20. So I don't think he's likely to bust at that ADP, but 2020's off-season will be interesting if that is indeed all he does this year.

[Phaded]

The entire offense fell off a cliff with all fairness. BB exposed the Vikes. Double Thielen & double Diggs. Game over.

The Vikings wisely improved their o line and added Irv Smith. I expect a return to somewhere in between the two halves of last year.

[Servo]

Little chance Jeffery gets benched this season -- he's getting paid too much. I think it's something like 15 million? He hasn't been lighting the world on fire statistically, but he's been useful for Philly.

It's kinda funny that he and Agholor have essentially put up the same stats over their last two years in Philly (Jeffery may be averaging 10 more yards a game and has only missed 3 games) and yet Philly is shopping Agholor.

[ninotoreS]

It's kinda funny that he and Agholor have essentially put up the same stats over their last two years in Philly

Agholor's in Jeffery's ballpark, but the production isn't the same. Jeffery's got more yards and more TDs in fewer games played.

With Ertz already the preferred target between the hashmarks (and Goedert possibly ascending on top of that), it seems like Philly has less need for a slot-WR like Agholor.

Jeffery also graded much better than Agholor last year, per PFF.

[ericanadian]

Little chance Jeffery gets benched this season -- he's getting paid too much. I think it's something like 15 million? He hasn't been lighting the world on fire statistically, but he's been useful for Philly.

It's kinda funny that he and Agholor have essentially put up the same stats over their last two years in Philly (Jeffery may be averaging 10 more yards a game and has only missed 3 games) and yet Philly is shopping Agholor.

The yards per target disparity last year isn’t nothing. A hundred yards and a pair of touchdowns on five less targets is a pretty big difference.

[snaps06]

Sleepers

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Darwin Thompson
WR: Marquez Valdez-Scantling
TE: Chris Herndon

Breakouts:

QB: Dwayne Haskins
RB: Royce Freeman
WR: DJ Mooooooore
TE: OJ Howard


Busts:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Damien Williams
WR: Adam Thielen
TE: Zach Ertz

If those breakouts/sleepers hit, team 4 in my sig will be very happy this year haha.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Sleeper - Jameis Winston. He seems like the guy who would be sleeping during team meetings.
Breakout - Kyler Murray. With puberty will come the skin problems.
Busts - Brandin Cooks. That guy is going to be taking advantage of busted coverage all season.

haha, good stuff.

with regards to cooks, he should have a monster year. when tavon austin was on the team in 2017 he created many downfield opportunities for sammy watkins. however the chemistry between goff and watkins wasn't there on the deep balls. he came in late, didn't really know the routes that well, gave up on a few of them, not sure goff trusted him that much, goff still learning and not seeing him sometimes. all those things worked against watkins taking advantage of the space tavon created just by being on the field.

now cooks has henderson. everything that worked against watkins now works for cooks. great chemistry with goff, runs great routes, goff trusts him, goff mastering the offense, goff sees the field better. once henderson breaks a few long ones defenses will have to start paying more attention to him. this is when cooks will thrive.

.

[FantasyFreak]

Sleeper - Jameis Winston. He seems like the guy who would be sleeping during team meetings.
Breakout - Kyler Murray. With puberty will come the skin problems.
Busts - Brandin Cooks. That guy is going to be taking advantage of busted coverage all season.

[FuzzySignificance]

Why Thielen?

My guess - his numbers were down significantly down the stretch. It's all about expectations with Thielen. If you draft him (or own him) as a WR2 you've got a good shot at being happy. But that's a far cry from WR7 where he ended the season and WR1 where he was thru week 13 of 2018.

Exactly. Thielen owners are very defensive of him. Its almost like they forget how different the second half of last season was compared to the first half. Hes not going to fall off a cliff but expectations should be tempered.

I'm not a thielen owner. he was battling multiple injuries down the stretch. and we're literally talking about 4 games. he was on bust lists before last year too for no great reason. it's sorta silly. the most likely outcome for both him and diggs is that they are somewhere between wr 10-20, just as it was last year, just as it will be next year assuming everyone is healthy.

[Bubba90]

Why Thielen?

My guess - his numbers were down significantly down the stretch. It's all about expectations with Thielen. If you draft him (or own him) as a WR2 you've got a good shot at being happy. But that's a far cry from WR7 where he ended the season and WR1 where he was thru week 13 of 2018.

Exactly. Thielen owners are very defensive of him. Its almost like they forget how different the second half of last season was compared to the first half. Hes not going to fall off a cliff but expectations should be tempered.

I agree, temper expectations on Thielen, but realize his numbers dipped once Cook was healthy enough for a bigger role. If Cook remains healthy for an entire season I can see Thielen’s numbers tampering off.

[Metriculous]

Can we just stop listing Gurley in bust threads?

At this point it really doesn't benefit anyone. If you are unaware of his health situation and the way carries were distributed to end last season then other owners SHOULD get to take advantage of you. It should be their right.

[Pac_Eddy]

My guess - his numbers were down significantly down the stretch. It's all about expectations with Thielen. If you draft him (or own him) as a WR2 you've got a good shot at being happy. But that's a far cry from WR7 where he ended the season and WR1 where he was thru week 13 of 2018.

Exactly. Thielen owners are very defensive of him. Its almost like they forget how different the second half of last season was compared to the first half. Hes not going to fall off a cliff but expectations should be tempered.

I agree, temper expectations on Thielen, but realize his numbers dipped once Cook was healthy enough for a bigger role. If Cook remains healthy for an entire season I can see Thielen’s numbers tampering off.

Thielen's production dipped when the already mediocre offensive line really started struggling. Same with Kirk Cousins. If healthy, I think Thielen is a back end WR1.

[FantasyFreak]

It's kinda funny that he and Agholor have essentially put up the same stats over their last two years in Philly

Agholor's in Jeffery's ballpark, but the production isn't the same. Jeffery's got more yards and more TDs in fewer games played.

With Ertz already the preferred target between the hashmarks (and Goedert possibly ascending on top of that), it seems like Philly has less need for a slot-WR like Agholor.

Jeffery also graded much better than Agholor last year, per PFF.

2 years ago Agholor had his best year as a pro out, and I believe he played of the slot a lot. With Tate there last year, Agholor did not play the same role. With Tate gone, and Desean on the outside now, do we expect Agholor to be the slot guy again?