BUY/SELL/HOLD

[BigBawseRoss]

Wanted to make a little topic about the 3 categories we should all have players in (in our minds or actually documented doesnt matter).

A BUY:

a buy is a player whos value is at or near an all time low or what could be the lowest we may ever see. Good buys are : guys coming off injury but are high end talents (buying Keenan allen right after he tears his acl, buying guice right after his, buying gurley while the world is in a panic, buying Bell the day after he misses his deadline to report for 2018, etc.). Another good buy is a guy changing teams who has only flashed but not put it all together, the Mike Turners, the Emmanual sanders, and eric ebrons of the world. A last example of a solid buy is someone whos situation improved but maybe a casual owner wouldnt know it. such as a drastic upgrade in O line and going and buying a rb you have high hope for but maybe that owner is down on, or a WR who has been getting doubled but the team drafted or signed a compliment and you see them getting better opportunity now, etc.


A SELL:

a sell is a player whos value is at or near an all time high or a player whos outlook is trending downward (due to age, wear and tear, team change, late career change of other sorts such as lots of competition all of a sudden or a coaching change where a player might not be a good fit)

A HOLD:

A hold is a player where you really dont know what you have or their value is neither at a high or a low point and they are just in muddied waters, no real clarity...OR they have supreme clarity and you know they are a high quality asset that people either want to offer low for in hopes of landing a steal or maybe they have no buzz at all and are just a point producer that will never been viewed too high or too low (the danny woodheads, the TE2s, the WR3-4s of the world lets say)


we can list some good buys sells or holds but this was more to define these things as im seeing TONS of topics where guys are asking questions like "what should i sell Guice for?" you shouldnt be selling guice he is a buy not a sell by definition. same with gurley, same with matt stafford. OR conversely you shouldnt be buying guys like tyler lockett, phillip lindsay, george kittle, or baker mayfield. Not that i think those are all bad players but its silly to chase hot names at a high point and its not the way you wanna build your dynasty. the dude that drafts baker with a pick he got from selling big ben to a title hopeful is the guy thats doing it right, not the guy that sends Golladay and 2 firsts for him going into his sophomore season... ya know, AFTER his value has spiked.

be savvy and exploit the constant rollercoaster of value changes that is present all over the dynasty landscape. so many mistakes can be easily avoided if you play the value game the right way.

[Paul717]

Indeed. Appreciate all the insight you add to this website.

[Cult of Dionysus]

The first post above basically gives the key to real success in both fantasy football and investing in general. Lotta people think fantasy football comes down to luck. And while luck does play a significant role in fantasy, what separates your average dynasty manager and a really good dynasty manager is understanding WHEN to BUY, WHEN to SELL, and WHEN to HOLD.

[Shcritters]

The first post above basically gives the key to real success in both fantasy football and investing in general. Lotta people think fantasy football comes down to luck. And while luck does play a significant role in fantasy, what separates your average dynasty manager and a really good dynasty manager is understanding WHEN to BUY, WHEN to SELL, and WHEN to HOLD.

I agree on this. Some of FF comes down to ‘chance’, of which luck is one part (ie, people getting injured or not). The best owners maximize their team’s chances such that when luck goes bad they aren’t decimated. And one key to maximizing your chances is selling high and buying low. The more you do that the more chances you will have at getting a solid roster, and the greater the chance when ‘bad luck’ hits you can recover from it.

[Bot101]

I generally agree with what you're saying. The problem I find for BUY/SELL/HOLD is this.

BUY: When I go to buy a Guice, KA or Gurley, owners in any of my leagues wont sell for any discount. They value their players like they only see the ceiling. If they dont get "blown away" they just hold.

SELL: When any of my players start hitting this category they instantly become as radioactive as Chernobyl. I cant even sell at a discount. The dynasty community is two or three giant echo chambers.

HOLD: This one is as clear as mud. Every contender says "but I'm contending so your offer doesn't help me now" and rebuilders ask for premium prices or they just let hold a player and wants to wait and see, typically just letting a player rot till they are worthless.




I have always enjoyed trading and the trade talks. But this year I either get lowballed or just flat rejected. So I'm kinda just giving up on buying/selling and everyone I'm just holding. I get very frustrated so I'm just going after players I like or someone can come to me.

[Cult of Dionysus]

I generally agree with what you're saying. The problem I find for BUY/SELL/HOLD is this.

SELL: When any of my players start hitting this category they instantly become as radioactive as Chernobyl. I cant even sell at a discount. The dynasty community is two or three giant echo chambers.

You got to get the TIMING right. You got to sell when others are still buying. Once a player actually hits the sell stage, it's too late to sell. Getting this right is actually not all that hard. It's just something we don't like to do.

As for buying, it's about identifying a guy before he spikes in value. Obviously that is VERY hard to do. Hence why 95% of experienced dynasty owners can't consistently do it, and I include myself in that category as well. That said, after doing this now for well over 5 years, I'm beginning to get a sense of what is needed, and it is a complex interplay of stats, watching tape (NFL games) and looking at situation. If you have the luxury of time and can do enough analysis, you will find guys who have a solid chance of jumping in value BEFORE it happens. I also think it is easier to find these situations amongst WRs, more so than any other position. Why? Because there's more of a pecking order on WR corps, with guys climbing up and earning more targets.

I believe that Zay Jones is a strong buy atm and I think you can get him for a very reasonable price. I felt very good about Chris Godwin last off-season and the one before that, and I think I definitely bought him for a lot less than he is worth now. I wish I could throw out more names, but that's all I've got in the last few years and now.

With that said, I do believe that some of the 2019 rookies will exceed their dynasty draft capital. Hock, Isabella, Singletary, Butler, Grier.

[sloth8u]

I like the topic and agree with how you define each category but id caution using examples of players. Each league is different and for every player that you can cherry pick to fit each scenario....there are many more that actually ended up in another category when its said and done.

For sells, some produce multiple more years and your left with nothing but a name instead of production. For buys, not all work out. With holds, you should have sold.

My guess is that your referring to the "value" game, but value doesnt win a league, production does. Value game is great when leaguemates want to play it aswell, you can just as easily get yourself in trouble if your leaguemates arent interested in that sort of thing.

[BigBawseRoss]

I generally agree with what you're saying. The problem I find for BUY/SELL/HOLD is this.

BUY: When I go to buy a Guice, KA or Gurley, owners in any of my leagues wont sell for any discount. They value their players like they only see the ceiling. If they dont get "blown away" they just hold.

SELL: When any of my players start hitting this category they instantly become as radioactive as Chernobyl. I cant even sell at a discount. The dynasty community is two or three giant echo chambers.

HOLD: This one is as clear as mud. Every contender says "but I'm contending so your offer doesn't help me now" and rebuilders ask for premium prices or they just let hold a player and wants to wait and see, typically just letting a player rot till they are worthless.




I have always enjoyed trading and the trade talks. But this year I either get lowballed or just flat rejected. So I'm kinda just giving up on buying/selling and everyone I'm just holding. I get very frustrated so I'm just going after players I like or someone can come to me.

the inherent problem with this is that other owners can also be savvy and understand value fluctuation. The guys you listed Guice, KA, and Gurley are not SELLS they are HOLDS so the other owner not wanting to sell em off for less than top dollar is a smart move on their part and bad luck for you. KA i could see someone selling but the other two you would need to either get fair return or be a panicked or novice owner to sell off right now for less.

Sometimes the windows are very brief and happen suddenly. we just saw it with ty hill dude went from no doubt top 10 startup pick, to undraftable, to top 3 round startup pick all in a months time. the day the audio broke was the best buying window, 4 days later that window wasnt as wide open. Its a timing game more than anything and a game of patience and not getting frustrated but staying vigilant.

Often times i find i cant find good buys or nobody wants to buy the guys i wanna sell and the only deals to look for are good ole fashioned fair deal that helps both teams.

[BigBawseRoss]

I like the topic and agree with how you define each category but id caution using examples of players. Each league is different and for every player that you can cherry pick to fit each scenario....there are many more that actually ended up in another category when its said and done.

For sells, some produce multiple more years and your left with nothing but a name instead of production. For buys, not all work out. With holds, you should have sold.

My guess is that your referring to the "value" game, but value doesnt win a league, production does. Value game is great when leaguemates want to play it aswell, you can just as easily get yourself in trouble if your leaguemates arent interested in that sort of thing.

i agree that different folks can classify players differently as a buy sell or hold, but what i think is that only one of those answers is correct. if i think guice is a sell right now and you think he is a buy and i sell him to you for a first and you think you bought him cheap because hes no doubt gonna be worth 2-3 firsts soon then only one of us will be right. he either will go up in value and you got a steal on him and enjoyed his production OR he sucks/is injured/ shares carries and his value stays at or below a first. thats where the evaluation of a player as a BUY a SELL or a HOLD is important, everyone can have an opinion but there are winners and losers in determining market value.

I also think value and production can go hand and hand. Buying a guy for cheap before a breakout or bounce back season is huge for building a dynasty. And usually a player gains value due to their production, sometimes its hype but most of the time its because they start scoring points.