Undervalued RB's to target?

[ericanadian]

I grabbed Booker pretty much everywhere. He did well in an outside zone the first time around and it was moving away from that which cost him his job (or rather most of it considering he still had 30% of the stat count last year). Freeman and Lindsay are ahead of him on the depth chart, but running backs get hurt and not all backups have potential to excel when that happens.

[Phaded]

Rashaad Penny.
RoJo (especially with how his stock has plummeted).
Matt Breida.
Kalen Ballage.

[kmbryant09]

Penny - buy for a late 1st or a couple of 2nds. With Davis out of town, he could return Flex value even if Carson remains the lead back. His upside is top10 potential if he takes over that backfield.

Drake - Never been a big fan, but I also think he can beat out Ballage pretty easily. Team will always be trailing, and he could catch 60+ passes in garbage time.

Lindsay - I think Freeman is JAG, and Lindsay proved to be an electric weapon. Even if it's a fairly even split on the ground, he should be utilized more in the passing game. Think he finishes in the 12 - 18 range, yet people seem willing to cash out on him.

L. Murray - Unless his owner is in win-now mode, he could be had for a late 2nd. Should return stand-alone value splitting work with Kamara, and could have top15 upside if Kamara misses time or doesn't take on additional work.

D. Singletary - Looks like a really crowded situation right now, but that is going to get cleared up pretty quickly. McCoy (31) and Gore (36) will be gone in no time, and Yeldon has proved to be a tease throughout his career. He's more risky compared to other guys on this list, but I could see Singletary taking over the backfield and being a top20 RB over the 2nd half of the season.

[FantasyFreak]

Who?

Wha... Royce Freeman of course! Ive been sayin for months to get him before the hype started... and just a couple weeks ago Cecil Lammey started to finally tell people to start buying Freeman shares. Im drivin the buy Freeman hype train.

I'm seriously considering moving on from him for an early second if I can get it

I wouldn't. Royce played with a high ankle sprain last year. I trust Lammey. He is the Denver Beat reported who was all over Phillip Lindsay last year. He's saying Royce is looking awesome and all the coaches have noticed. He's also saying Lindsay is behind schedule in his wrist recovery. The new system suits Royce way more. I think you will regret moving him for a 2nd.

[Valhalla]

Chase Edmonds...for the simple reason that Arizona is probably aiming to run as many plays as possible, and DJ can't be out there for all of it. I'm just wondering if the NFL officials will allow the pace. We saw that mentality get really halted before when Chip Kelly tried it.

[kmbryant09]

Wha... Royce Freeman of course! Ive been sayin for months to get him before the hype started... and just a couple weeks ago Cecil Lammey started to finally tell people to start buying Freeman shares. Im drivin the buy Freeman hype train.

I'm seriously considering moving on from him for an early second if I can get it

I wouldn't. Royce played with a high ankle sprain last year. I trust Lammey. He is the Denver Beat reported who was all over Phillip Lindsay last year. He's saying Royce is looking awesome and all the coaches have noticed. He's also saying Lindsay is behind schedule in his wrist recovery. The new system suits Royce way more. I think you will regret moving him for a 2nd.

I wrote this in another thread, but it's worth saying that Lammey pretty much fluffs up the starting RB in Denver every single season during minicamp. It was R. Hillman, M. Ball, J. Charles, etc. etc. - he just blindly falls in love with a RB every year with no real track record of success.

And as far as Lindsay's recovery goes, he's expected to be fully healed and 100% participation in Training Camp next month, so he's not behind schedule.

[FantasyFreak]

I'm seriously considering moving on from him for an early second if I can get it

I wouldn't. Royce played with a high ankle sprain last year. I trust Lammey. He is the Denver Beat reported who was all over Phillip Lindsay last year. He's saying Royce is looking awesome and all the coaches have noticed. He's also saying Lindsay is behind schedule in his wrist recovery. The new system suits Royce way more. I think you will regret moving him for a 2nd.

I wrote this in another thread, but it's worth saying that Lammey pretty much fluffs up the starting RB in Denver every single season during minicamp. It was R. Hillman, M. Ball, J. Charles, etc. etc. - he just blindly falls in love with a RB every year with no real track record of success.

And as far as Lindsay's recovery goes, he's expected to be fully healed and 100% participation in Training Camp next month, so he's not behind schedule.

We'll see. That's just what Lammey was saying when talking to the doctors a few weeks ago. The talk is also that Lindsay will not be getting as many carries, but will be used more in the passing game. Royce was a major college producer and has upper percentile agility. He played hurt last year. Lindsay's season was an outlier. I'm not saying Lindsay won't get the ball, but he isn't going to put up those rushing totals again. I fully expect Freeman to out touch Lindsay in terms of carries.

[IR1]

Mark Ingram could be much more valuable than his ADP for a win now team

[Bot101]

I'm seriously considering moving on from him for an early second if I can get it

I wouldn't. Royce played with a high ankle sprain last year. I trust Lammey. He is the Denver Beat reported who was all over Phillip Lindsay last year. He's saying Royce is looking awesome and all the coaches have noticed. He's also saying Lindsay is behind schedule in his wrist recovery. The new system suits Royce way more. I think you will regret moving him for a 2nd.

I wrote this in another thread, but it's worth saying that Lammey pretty much fluffs up the starting RB in Denver every single season during minicamp. It was R. Hillman, M. Ball, J. Charles, etc. etc. - he just blindly falls in love with a RB every year with no real track record of success.

And as far as Lindsay's recovery goes, he's expected to be fully healed and 100% participation in Training Camp next month, so he's not behind schedule.

Re-read what you wrote. Lammey fluffs the starting RB. Last year it was Lindsay, this year its Freeman.... enough said am I right? Anyone who is saying Lindsay is awesome and Freeman is JAG is taking every bit of context out of last season.

Last season before the ankle injury Freeman was good. He had a higher juke rate and was the more elusive back according to PFF. He also faced way more stacked boxes than Lindsay WHILE playing in an offense that didnt fit him but fit Lindsay perfectly. Lindsay is 185 lbs and runs aggressive like Guice. He will not last long. His wrist injury was severe and Ive read he may never regain full grip strength. And watching Freeman AFTER he came back from a high ankle sprain, it was so easy to see he wasnt the same guy.

So far Freeman has "impressed the hell out of the coaches". He looks leaner, cuts have been sharper and hes going to get a lot more carries than last year. I get Lindsay is the waiver wire apple of the dynasty managers eye. But hes small and hes undrafted. What he did last season has never been done before. That kids, is what we call an outlier. Hes a sell if you can get a 1st for him. Freeman is much cheaper and hes a buy.

Im not saying Freeman is going to be a top 5 back. But a high end RB 2 is definitely at the top end range of outcomes.

[FantasyFreak]

I wouldn't. Royce played with a high ankle sprain last year. I trust Lammey. He is the Denver Beat reported who was all over Phillip Lindsay last year. He's saying Royce is looking awesome and all the coaches have noticed. He's also saying Lindsay is behind schedule in his wrist recovery. The new system suits Royce way more. I think you will regret moving him for a 2nd.

I wrote this in another thread, but it's worth saying that Lammey pretty much fluffs up the starting RB in Denver every single season during minicamp. It was R. Hillman, M. Ball, J. Charles, etc. etc. - he just blindly falls in love with a RB every year with no real track record of success.

And as far as Lindsay's recovery goes, he's expected to be fully healed and 100% participation in Training Camp next month, so he's not behind schedule.

Re-read what you wrote. Lammey fluffs the starting RB. Last year it was Lindsay, this year its Freeman.... enough said am I right? Anyone who is saying Lindsay is awesome and Freeman is JAG is taking every bit of context out of last season.

Last season before the ankle injury Freeman was good. He had a higher juke rate and was the more elusive back according to PFF. He also faced way more stacked boxes than Lindsay WHILE playing in an offense that didnt fit him but fit Lindsay perfectly. Lindsay is 185 lbs and runs aggressive like Guice. He will not last long. His wrist injury was severe and Ive read he may never regain full grip strength. And watching Freeman AFTER he came back from a high ankle sprain, it was so easy to see he wasnt the same guy.

So far Freeman has "impressed the hell out of the coaches". He looks leaner, cuts have been sharper and hes going to get a lot more carries than last year. I get Lindsay is the waiver wire apple of the dynasty managers eye. But hes small and hes undrafted. What he did last season has never been done before. That kids, is what we call an outlier. Hes a sell if you can get a 1st for him. Freeman is much cheaper and hes a buy.

Im not saying Freeman is going to be a top 5 back. But a high end RB 2 is definitely at the top end range of outcomes.

Agreed for the most part. I'd take a first for Lindsay, if it's a 2020. Lindsay will not go away though. He should be expected to be the 3rd down back and see an increase in receptions, which is a good thing in PPR. He won't get the carries he got last year, but that's also a good thing. I think Lindsay can still be a RB 2 if they manage his touches and use him in the receiving game. I can see both of them being RB's 2's.

[ArrylT]

David Johnson the 26th best RB? NFL network busted out the good Ganja for this article

Johnson, an All-Pro in 2016, hasn't been the same since suffering a season-ending wrist injury in Week 1 of the 2017 season

I love MJD but WHAT? DJ was a top 10 guy last year and take away his slow start was a top 5 guy

I think he was talking specifically about rushing yardage, not overall yardage from scrimmage, and obviously not from a fantasy value perspective.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ushing.htm

DJ was not even top 10 in rushing yardage, despite having #3 most carries and if you compare him to all the other guys in the 800-1000 yard range you can see he was the leader by far in carries save for Jordan Howard - again from a rushing yardage total vantage only.

Obviously your experienced dynasty & re-draft guys are going to take into context his situation, his receiving volume and total fantasy points - but if you're in a league with guys who are more casual, or focus more on the rushing side of the equation - per chance there is an area to explore to acquire him / draft him below cost.

However I think there are plenty of other names in the 20-32 range that owners could explore be it Drake, Lindsay, Freeman or so forth - obviously again it will be league dependant.

[kmbryant09]

I wouldn't. Royce played with a high ankle sprain last year. I trust Lammey. He is the Denver Beat reported who was all over Phillip Lindsay last year. He's saying Royce is looking awesome and all the coaches have noticed. He's also saying Lindsay is behind schedule in his wrist recovery. The new system suits Royce way more. I think you will regret moving him for a 2nd.

I wrote this in another thread, but it's worth saying that Lammey pretty much fluffs up the starting RB in Denver every single season during minicamp. It was R. Hillman, M. Ball, J. Charles, etc. etc. - he just blindly falls in love with a RB every year with no real track record of success.

And as far as Lindsay's recovery goes, he's expected to be fully healed and 100% participation in Training Camp next month, so he's not behind schedule.

Re-read what you wrote. Lammey fluffs the starting RB. Last year it was Lindsay, this year its Freeman.... enough said am I right? Anyone who is saying Lindsay is awesome and Freeman is JAG is taking every bit of context out of last season.

Last season before the ankle injury Freeman was good. He had a higher juke rate and was the more elusive back according to PFF. He also faced way more stacked boxes than Lindsay WHILE playing in an offense that didnt fit him but fit Lindsay perfectly. Lindsay is 185 lbs and runs aggressive like Guice. He will not last long. His wrist injury was severe and Ive read he may never regain full grip strength. And watching Freeman AFTER he came back from a high ankle sprain, it was so easy to see he wasnt the same guy.

So far Freeman has "impressed the hell out of the coaches". He looks leaner, cuts have been sharper and hes going to get a lot more carries than last year. I get Lindsay is the waiver wire apple of the dynasty managers eye. But hes small and hes undrafted. What he did last season has never been done before. That kids, is what we call an outlier. Hes a sell if you can get a 1st for him. Freeman is much cheaper and hes a buy.

Im not saying Freeman is going to be a top 5 back. But a high end RB 2 is definitely at the top end range of outcomes.

I should have re-phrased what I wrote. I don't mean the true starting RB, I mean the 1st RB through the drills, taking snaps with the 1st team - that's who Lammey seems to salivate over every single year.

Yes, he was early on Lindsay last year, but the entire team was (Von Miller was pleading for the team to use him as a 3rd down back last minicamp when he was a long-shot for the final roster). Lammey was also early on Hillman and Ball, and that didn't work out so well. The point is, I basically ignore anything Lammey says about the Denver backfield.

I'm a big believer in stats, but there are a few that baffle me. Some of the advanced metrics for RBs are pretty sh!t, because they tend to favor bigger backs that can't fully elude a defender, but are big enough to break it or fall forward a few yards. For smaller RBs or RBs with elite vision & lateral agility, often times they can outrun the defender or avoid them all together that they don't get credit for a missed /
broken tackle because the defender doesn't get their hands on them.

As for the stacked boxes, I think that's a real knock on Freeman. Teams knew Denver would run the ball with Freeman in the game because he's not really a true threat as a receiver (though he's competent). As for pass-catching backs like Lindsay, defenses are far more hesitant to load the box because they can't confidently predict that a run is coming. This idea doesn't just apply to Denver, I think it gets overlooked across the league. Any RB that isn't a plus in the passing game is going to face more defenders in the box by nature (unless the opposing defense is dumb), and the number of defenders in the box highly correlates to rushing success, no matter who the RB is.

I should also re-phrase an earlier statement. Freeman might be more than JAG - he did play pretty well last year when healthy, though I think he's far from special and a less dynamic threat than Lindsay. Basically I think he's a solid RB that can hold his own and earn rotational touches in the NFL. I do not think he's the type of talent that will consistently produce more than what the offense dictates, which is exactly what Lindsay did last year. The fact that he averaged 1.4 yards MORE per carry than Freeman, behind an equally mediocre offensive line and an incompetent passing-game is extremely impressive. It's very difficult for any RB to average 5.0+ ypc on 150+ rushing attempts in a positive situation. Lindsay averaged 5.4 ypc on 192 attempts in a pretty bad offense - to me that speaks to his talent.

Denver would have to commit to a ground-and-pound, slow-the-game-down, win with defense and rushing in order for Freeman to make more sense as the preferred back. I've questioned a lot of things Elway has done the past 5 years, so I shouldn't dismiss the possibility of that scenario playing out. But in terms of what's best for an offense putting up points in today's NFL? There's no doubt in my mind that Lindsay is the better option and should command 60% of the backfield touches.

[ninotoreS]

Duke Johnson. Of course it ultimately depends on the given league, but generally speaking his market-value is at an all time low. And yet that could be transformed overnight if and when he's traded to a team that appreciates his analytics and skill-set. In an NFL that is seeing the rise of dual-threat RBs that complement capable rushing with elite pass-catching utility, Duke Johnson is a perfect fit for the trend, but he's just on the wrong team, with a GM that considers him surplus to needs.

Jalen Richard. Ditto much of the above. With the Jacobs drafting, Richard will probably be on waiver-wires in many leagues. He'll probably be an unrestricted free-agent next offseason. He's been an analytically elite backfield pass-catcher for a few years now, and while he's never going to get 200 carries in a season, he could absolutely do what Darren Sproles did for the Saints. If he's on the right team...

Derrius Guice... maybe? I know his redraft ADP has been falling steadily this offseason. If his owner in your league no longer considers him a blue-chip, he's worth swooping for. Sfaic, he remains slated to be the future engine of the Redskins offense. He has the talent and prospect profile to become the kind of RB that's fantasy relevant for the better part of a decade (e.g. McCoy, Gore, Lynch, Peterson...). If I'm right, this moment in time is the ideal buy-low interval of his career.

Peyton Barber. If you can get him for a '19 3rd for those of you who haven't drafted yet, it's worth doing. I would balk at sending a 2nd, even from this weak rookie-class. Buying him cheap right now is a calculated gamble. He's in the type of situation that might see his value dramatically rise mid-season, at which point you'd want to flip him.

D'Onta Foreman. Like Barber above.

Ronald Jones. Effectively the alternative option to Barber, with everything stated for him also applying to Jones. RoJo has performed better in this year's padless practices than he did in last year's. Barber is the better real-world bet in my view, but Jones remains a guy who had very impressive Trojan tape just two years ago, and it's easy to forget he was a 20-year-old when he declared for the draft.

[Sriracha]

RBs I'm trying to buy at low prices for contending rosters include Latavius Murray, Matt Breida, TJ Yeldon, and Lamar Miller.

I want to like Murray..... but is he good enough to hold onto that spot over Devine Ozigbo? I just don't know.

Matt Breida is a screaming value at his current ADP; I personally think he's the best RB on that roster.

I'd say the correct answer is probably the rookie RBs: Ozigbo, Anderson (both of them), Myles Gaskin, Karan Higdon/Damarea Crockett, Ty Johnson, Alex Barnes are all in either: Great offenses, without an elite talent in front of them; or one injury away from entering into serious minutes on an RB friendly offense.

Bryce Love is also criminally undervalued as a stash and is health + one Guice injury away from being a league winner.

[FantasyFreak]

RBs I'm trying to buy at low prices for contending rosters include Latavius Murray, Matt Breida, TJ Yeldon, and Lamar Miller.

I want to like Murray..... but is he good enough to hold onto that spot over Devine Ozigbo? I just don't know.

Matt Breida is a screaming value at his current ADP; I personally think he's the best RB on that roster.

I'd say the correct answer is probably the rookie RBs: Ozigbo, Anderson (both of them), Myles Gaskin, Karan Higdon/Damarea Crockett, Ty Johnson, Alex Barnes are all in either: Great offenses, without an elite talent in front of them; or one injury away from entering into serious minutes on an RB friendly offense.

Bryce Love is also criminally undervalued as a stash and is health + one Guice injury away from being a league winner.

Best RB in the trainers room, for sure. His problem is he can't stay on the field enough. Good player, though.