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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:24 pm
by pvillebiker
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:53 am
The Steelers RB of the future is still in college.
wait, which side of this are you on -- contrarian or true believer?

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:34 pm
by TheNuts
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:53 am
Sorry, folks, I was talking about redraft/bestball...forget this is a dynasty forum sometimes cuz I'm a dolt.
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:37 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:31 am


I think he means redraft? Guys like Sigmund Bloom are hyping him hard. Bloom in currently erecting a pyramid in honor of Kyler and Kliff, though.
I got him at 1.05 in my first bestball and felt like I died and went to heaven. I don't think people understand just how much the QB and coaching hurt him last season. What was that ridiculous stat, the one where they ran DJ up the middle like 80 more times than any other running back?
Assuming health, 1.05 is about his ceiling. I think you got a little too happy there. No way he outscores a healthy Zeke, Saquon, or Kamara.
1.05 is his ceiling? Even if he finishes as the 5th best back, his ceiling is number 1. A great running back on what should be a much improved offense?

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:55 am
by pvillebiker
popular opinion: Mariota will continue to underperform and lose the Titan's starting QB job by year end.
contrarian opinion: oh wait, never mind. I agree with popular opinion! :D :D

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:09 am
by wickerkat1212
Derrick Henry will be a top ten rb.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:29 am
by Sriracha
pvillebiker wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:55 am
popular opinion: Mariota will continue to underperform and lose the Titan's starting QB job by year end.
contrarian opinion: oh wait, never mind. I agree with popular opinion! :D :D
This stance based on anything but injury riddled recency bias?

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:23 pm
by honcho55
I have one.

Ya don’t have to wait for all the coals to be white before you can start grilling

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:22 am
by ArrylT
honcho55 wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:23 pm
I have one.

Ya don’t have to wait for all the coals to be white before you can start grilling
He's cooking with gas with this comment! 8-)

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:26 pm
by ArrylT
I've moved most of the Mariota posts from this thread to a Mariota specific thread - because (a) I think the purpose of the Contrarian thread was for owners to share their contrarian takes and (b) I feel that the Mariota discussion is worthwhile enough having that it shouldnt overcome but could overcome the main topic.

In other words - the Mariota discussion is a discussion worth having - but to ensure that it doesnt overwhelm the purpose of this thread, its been placed in a better thread where I hope it continues.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:39 pm
by ArrylT
Another contrarian take:

Having Tyreek Hill back, will hurt Sammy Watkins perceived value, but may actually be better for his actual production (due to better efficiency in targets).

A lot of owners seem to feel that if Hill plays most of the season that this will be bad for Watkins. In a normal offence, I would likely agree - just because there are only so many targets to go around. However some offences have high enough or efficient enough volume that they can feed multiple players that they all have high end production. Maybe not to the degree that they are all elite producers, but enough that they have value in your lineup. So the KC offense could be strong enough that it could support 2 WRs & a TE (along with its RB).

Look at Pittsburgh last year. 2 WR1s, an RB1 and a TE1. Combined receiving targets for all involved was 462 (JJSS, AB, Conner & MacDonald).

Lets pretend Hills does not get a suspension. So he gets 140-150 targets. Watkins gets 110-120. Kelce gets 120-130 & D. Williams gets 80-100. Thats 500 targets using the high end for each. The Chiefs had 583 last year and the remaining 83 would be spread around

However Hill is likely to get a suspension - so we'll assume 4 games. Takes 40 targets (9-10 per game). So now its

Hill 90-100
Watkins 120-130
Kelce 140-150
D. Williams 80-100

Thats 480 (high end)

Not saying that it will happen. Just that Watkins should see enough targets, even with Hill & Kelce, that he could still be a mid WR2. Again assuming everyone is healthy, plays the full season (including Hill, DWill & Watkins).

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:08 pm
by pvillebiker
ArrylT wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:26 pm
I've moved most of the Mariota posts from this thread to a Mariota specific thread - because (a) I think the purpose of the Contrarian thread was for owners to share their contrarian takes and (b) I feel that the Mariota discussion is worthwhile enough having that it shouldnt overcome but could overcome the main topic.

In other words - the Mariota discussion is a discussion worth having - but to ensure that it doesnt overwhelm the purpose of this thread, its been placed in a better thread where I hope it continues.
right neighborly of you - thank you. Mariota does engender a wide range of dynasty opinions for sure.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:37 pm
by pvillebiker
ArrylT wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:39 pm
Another contrarian take:

Having Tyreek Hill back, will hurt Sammy Watkins perceived value, but may actually be better for his actual production (due to better efficiency in targets).

A lot of owners seem to feel that if Hill plays most of the season that this will be bad for Watkins. In a normal offence, I would likely agree - just because there are only so many targets to go around. However some offences have high enough or efficient enough volume that they can feed multiple players that they all have high end production. Maybe not to the degree that they are all elite producers, but enough that they have value in your lineup. So the KC offense could be strong enough that it could support 2 WRs & a TE (along with its RB).

Look at Pittsburgh last year. 2 WR1s, an RB1 and a TE1. Combined receiving targets for all involved was 462 (JJSS, AB, Conner & MacDonald).

Lets pretend Hills does not get a suspension. So he gets 140-150 targets. Watkins gets 110-120. Kelce gets 120-130 & D. Williams gets 80-100. Thats 500 targets using the high end for each. The Chiefs had 583 last year and the remaining 83 would be spread around

However Hill is likely to get a suspension - so we'll assume 4 games. Takes 40 targets (9-10 per game). So now its

Hill 90-100
Watkins 120-130
Kelce 140-150
D. Williams 80-100

Thats 480 (high end)

Not saying that it will happen. Just that Watkins should see enough targets, even with Hill & Kelce, that he could still be a mid WR2. Again assuming everyone is healthy, plays the full season (including Hill, DWill & Watkins).
To wit, Tyreek's & Sammy's actual production in full games they played together in Sammy's 1st year in KC is probably closer than most think. It's obviously fair to discount for injuries + lack of availability. I do. Sammy will never be anything more than potential if he can't string together healthy seasons. And yup, we all know Tyreek's a speed demon & his average yards/catch is pretty stout. But in the 8 games they both fully played TOGETHER last year (Weeks 1-3, 5-9), Tyreek does not run away with all of it as you'd expect.

Target Share
Tyreek - 57
Sammy - 53
net: mostly even

Catches
Tyreek - 39
Sammy - 39
net: dead even

Catch Rate
Tyreek - 68%
Sammy - 73%
net: Sammy

Yards
Tyreek - 720
Sammy - 515
net: Tyreek

TD's
Tyreek - 7
Sammy - 3
net: Tyreek

Yds/Catch
Tyreek - 18.4
Sammy - 13.2
net: Tyreek

Net Net: it's reasonable to expect better production from Sammy in year #2, whether Tyreek plays 12 or 8 or 6 or Zero (as I expect) games.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:06 am
by killer_of_giants
tarik cohen will NOT have his role reduced because of montgomery there.

rashaad penny will outscore carson in all formats.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:05 am
by wickerkat1212
killer_of_giants wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:06 am
tarik cohen will NOT have his role reduced because of montgomery there.
agree