Top Contrarian Picks

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:06 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:03 am
DJ isn't getting close to 2016 again either
I agree. Yes, the situation was bad last year, but this year isn't going to be easy, either. They still have a bad OL, a rookie QB, a rookie HC, an over the Hill Fitz, Kirk (who might be good), and a few rookie WR's, in a system that we don't know will translate, and will also be pass heavy and spread the ball around. DJ will be 28 this year. He is a good RB, but I don't think he'll come clost to that season again. It definitely against the odds. He had 373 touches that season and got all the goal line work etc. With a QB like Murray I can't see 16 TD's on the ground, or even close to that. His situation and opportunity that year were a lot better. He has peaked in production, and value.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:25 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:06 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:03 am
DJ isn't getting close to 2016 again either
I agree. Yes, the situation was bad last year, but this year isn't going to be easy, either. They still have a bad OL, a rookie QB, a rookie HC, An over the Hill Fitz, Kirk (who might be good), and a few rookie WR's, in a system that we don't know will translate, and will also be pass heavy and spread the ball around. DJ will be 28 this year. He is a good RB, but I don't think he'll come clost to that season again. It definitely against the odds. His situation and opportunity that year were a lot better. He has peaked in production, and value.
I realize the Floor is lower than the other Stud RBs with DJ... but he succeeded in 2016, not because his O-line was great, or his offense was great.. it was because he has the wiggle to overcome a terrible O-line (rated 28th in the NFL in 2016)-- If he's not running up the gut at double the rate of the 2nd team :doh: , he was a WR1 at the RB position and he has a nose for the endzone. Even in his much maligned 2018 season, he scored 10 of their 24 offensive touchdowns. The average NFL team scores 37 touchdowns a season. That wiggle to his running style + his 687 career rushes means he's a fresh 27 turning 28 year old.

The upside on a Kingsbury offense (which very heavily targets the RB in the passing game) for a RB with DJ's skillset is threw the roof. Sure, they could be terrible... but Kingsbury's high tempo offense is going to generate a lot more plays than he had last season even on a terrible offense. They're going to throw even more when they're behind, and many of those throws are going to DJ. And if Kingsbury's offense is actually good? DJ could definitely match his 2016 season.

DJ's floor and ceiling are much higher than you think.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:45 am

IZigUZag wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:25 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:06 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:03 am
DJ isn't getting close to 2016 again either
I agree. Yes, the situation was bad last year, but this year isn't going to be easy, either. They still have a bad OL, a rookie QB, a rookie HC, An over the Hill Fitz, Kirk (who might be good), and a few rookie WR's, in a system that we don't know will translate, and will also be pass heavy and spread the ball around. DJ will be 28 this year. He is a good RB, but I don't think he'll come clost to that season again. It definitely against the odds. His situation and opportunity that year were a lot better. He has peaked in production, and value.
I realize the Floor is lower than the other Stud RBs with DJ... but he succeeded in 2016, not because his O-line was great, or his offense was great.. it was because he has the wiggle to overcome a terrible O-line (rated 28th in the NFL in 2016)-- If he's not running up the gut at double the rate of the 2nd team :doh: , he was a WR1 at the RB position and he has a nose for the endzone. Even in his much maligned 2018 season, he scored 10 of their 24 offensive touchdowns. The average NFL team scores 37 touchdowns a season. That wiggle to his running style + his 687 career rushes means he's a fresh 27 turning 28 year old.

The upside on a Kingsbury offense (which very heavily targets the RB in the passing game) for a RB with DJ's skillset is threw the roof. Sure, they could be terrible... but Kingsbury's high tempo offense is going to generate a lot more plays than he had last season even on a terrible offense. They're going to throw even more when they're behind, and many of those throws are going to DJ. And if Kingsbury's offense is actually good? DJ could definitely match his 2016 season.

DJ's floor and ceiling are much higher than you think.
We'll see. The problem with running a high tempo offense, is you need to sustain drives, or else all you are doing is throwing your Defense back out on the field quickly, and that defense will be on the field a lot this year. I don't see his ceiling this year as his 2016 season. Sure, they will be throwing a lot, but DJ has always caught the ball quite a bit. 20 total TD's is just not a realistic outlook with this current team and their lack of talent/experience IMO. Everyone views it differently. I had DJ, and sold him because I don't believe he will be an elite producer again. Low end to mid RB1? Sure. I can see that. Definitely low end, he did that last year. Also, the age thing for a RB has more to do with the body's natural healing process slowing down entering the age DJ is now at. So when he gets a bruise, or a strain etc. it heals slower, regardless of how many touches he's previously had.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:57 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:45 am
Also, the age thing for a RB has more to do with the body's natural healing process slowing down entering the age DJ is now at. So when he gets a bruise, or a strain etc. it heals slower, regardless of how many touches he's previously had.
That's part of it, but the number of car crash level collisions they've experienced is also a factor. DJ is obviously no spring chicken.. but the odds he stays elite is much higher than say... Leveon Bell. Who's 3 months younger, but has nearly double his workload.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:40 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:01 am
Neither Zeke, Saquon, or Kamara have come close to his 2016 season output. And they're certainly not still up at the 1.05 :ewink:
Do you think it's wiser to build projections or expectations for DJ in 2019 based upon his 2016 season, or his 2018 season?

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:47 pm

Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:40 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:01 am
Neither Zeke, Saquon, or Kamara have come close to his 2016 season output. And they're certainly not still up at the 1.05 :ewink:
Do you think it's wiser to build projections or expectations for DJ in 2019 based upon his 2016 season, or his 2018 season?
probably neither as it will be a completely different team and scheme. 2016 is probably more realistic though in terms of total yards, but of course you can't predict how many touchdowns he'll score.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:11 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:47 pm
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:40 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:01 am
Neither Zeke, Saquon, or Kamara have come close to his 2016 season output. And they're certainly not still up at the 1.05 :ewink:
Do you think it's wiser to build projections or expectations for DJ in 2019 based upon his 2016 season, or his 2018 season?
probably neither as it will be a completely different team and scheme. 2016 is probably more realistic though in terms of total yards, but of course you can't predict how many touchdowns he'll score.
2016 was an outlier. One of the truly rare convergences of talent and situation. The talent's still there. We know almost nothing about the situation, other than it probably won't be as bad as last year. I would caution against chasing the past.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:12 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:47 pm
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:40 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:01 am
Neither Zeke, Saquon, or Kamara have come close to his 2016 season output. And they're certainly not still up at the 1.05 :ewink:
Do you think it's wiser to build projections or expectations for DJ in 2019 based upon his 2016 season, or his 2018 season?
probably neither as it will be a completely different team and scheme. 2016 is probably more realistic though in terms of total yards, but of course you can't predict how many touchdowns he'll score.
I don't see that, personally. What was it, 2100 total yards? I don't think he sniffs that. I think 1600 total yards is a safe bet. 100 a game. I think people are way too high on this offense year 1. I do not think we will see a Chip Kelly type thing going on this year. There are a lot of backs I'd rather have this year, including Gurley and Mixon. (Talking redraft mindset here)

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:42 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:12 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:47 pm
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:40 pm


Do you think it's wiser to build projections or expectations for DJ in 2019 based upon his 2016 season, or his 2018 season?
probably neither as it will be a completely different team and scheme. 2016 is probably more realistic though in terms of total yards, but of course you can't predict how many touchdowns he'll score.
I don't see that, personally. What was it, 2100 total yards? I don't think he sniffs that. I think 1600 total yards is a safe bet. 100 a game. I think people are way too high on this offense year 1. I do not think we will see a Chip Kelly type thing going on this year. There are a lot of backs I'd rather have this year, including Gurley and Mixon. (Talking redraft mindset here)
So you’re taking the under on 110 total yards per game, which would be right in the middle of the 2016 and 2018 seasons. That would be like 1130 rushing and 630 receiving. I’ll take the over.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:06 pm

Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:11 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:47 pm
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:40 pm


Do you think it's wiser to build projections or expectations for DJ in 2019 based upon his 2016 season, or his 2018 season?
probably neither as it will be a completely different team and scheme. 2016 is probably more realistic though in terms of total yards, but of course you can't predict how many touchdowns he'll score.
2016 was an outlier. One of the truly rare convergences of talent and situation. The talent's still there. We know almost nothing about the situation, other than it probably won't be as bad as last year. I would caution against chasing the past.
Do you think the situation he finds himself in is more similar to 2016, or 2018? Do you think Kingsbury's air raid offense is more similar to Bruce Arians or Mike McCoy? The situation in 2016 was far from ideal... you'd think he played behind the best O-line in football, on a stacked roster (Like Bell). The O-line was terrible in 2016, just like it'll be terrible in 2018. The discerning factor will be if Kingsbury has the creativity to use DJ in the situations his talents can best be utilized; which given what I know of his offense is highly likely to happen.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:37 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:42 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:12 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:47 pm


probably neither as it will be a completely different team and scheme. 2016 is probably more realistic though in terms of total yards, but of course you can't predict how many touchdowns he'll score.
I don't see that, personally. What was it, 2100 total yards? I don't think he sniffs that. I think 1600 total yards is a safe bet. 100 a game. I think people are way too high on this offense year 1. I do not think we will see a Chip Kelly type thing going on this year. There are a lot of backs I'd rather have this year, including Gurley and Mixon. (Talking redraft mindset here)
So you’re taking the under on 110 total yards per game, which would be right in the middle of the 2016 and 2018 seasons. That would be like 1130 rushing and 630 receiving. I’ll take the over.
I'm taking about 1600 a game. Give or take. I'd take the under on the bolded, yes.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:41 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:37 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:42 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:12 pm


I don't see that, personally. What was it, 2100 total yards? I don't think he sniffs that. I think 1600 total yards is a safe bet. 100 a game. I think people are way too high on this offense year 1. I do not think we will see a Chip Kelly type thing going on this year. There are a lot of backs I'd rather have this year, including Gurley and Mixon. (Talking redraft mindset here)
So you’re taking the under on 110 total yards per game, which would be right in the middle of the 2016 and 2018 seasons. That would be like 1130 rushing and 630 receiving. I’ll take the over.
I'm taking about 1600 a game. Give or take. I'd take the under on the bolded, yes.
Huh?

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:11 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:41 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:37 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:42 pm


So you’re taking the under on 110 total yards per game, which would be right in the middle of the 2016 and 2018 seasons. That would be like 1130 rushing and 630 receiving. I’ll take the over.
I'm taking about 1600 a game. Give or take. I'd take the under on the bolded, yes.
Huh?
LOL. I'm talking about 1600 total yards on the season. That's what I think. 100 yards a game, so I'd take the under on 1130 rushing and 630 receiving for 1760 yards.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:39 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:11 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:41 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:37 pm


I'm taking about 1600 a game. Give or take. I'd take the under on the bolded, yes.
Huh?
LOL. I'm talking about 1600 total yards on the season. That's what I think. 100 yards a game, so I'd take the under on 1130 rushing and 630 receiving for 1760 yards.
Sure, I was more specifically talking in terms of total yards per game though. The splits was just an example. You're taking the under on 110 total ypg.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:59 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:39 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:11 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:41 pm


Huh?
LOL. I'm talking about 1600 total yards on the season. That's what I think. 100 yards a game, so I'd take the under on 1130 rushing and 630 receiving for 1760 yards.
Sure, I was more specifically talking in terms of total yards per game though. The splits was just an example. You're taking the under on 110 total ypg.
Just, yes. I'm not nearly as confident in him or Kliff/Kyler as most.


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