Popular Opinion: Kyler Murray will follow Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes to become a QB1 from the get go
Contrarian Opinion: Kyler Murray can succeed in the NFL but it will take longer than 1 year.
Outliers are nice. They are also outliers for a reason - because they they are not the norm and do not happen every day.
Kyler Murray has 1 full season of actual QB play under his belt in 4 years.
Kyler Murray is entering the league in one of the toughest positions to learn to play in
Kyler Murray is on a team where he has no QB mentor (the closest to an experienced NFL QB on Arizonas roster is Brett Hundley)
Assuming the Cardinals do employ an Air Raid type offence - that may benefit Murray, but it does mean the rest of the team needs to learn how to play in it.
The Cardinals are not an organization that have shown they are capable of developing young QBs - the list of successful QBs from Arizona in the past 30 years is Jake Plummer & Josh McCown. The list of 'failed' QBs include - Matt Leinart, Logan Thomas, John Skelton, Stoney Case, Tony Sacca, and Tom Tupa*.
Kyler Murray was drafted in a division with 3 teams with good to very good to elite defences
The last QB to come from an Air Raid system in College was Jared Goff - his rookie season was so good that it had fantasy owners questioning his ability to play QB.
Patrick Mahomes did not actually play his rookie year (other than 1 game) - and he was mentored by Alex Smith.
Baker Mayfield did not start the whole 2018 season and did not finish as a QB1 - in other words he's been annointed a QB1 without having had a QB1 season.
The Arizona Cardinals have yet to prove they have improved their offensive line.
Even rookie QBs who ran a lot in 2018 did not finish as QB1s - see Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen.
The success rate of College Coaches becoming successful Coaches is pretty slim. Those successful offensive minded coaches like McVay & Nagy and such? They actually position coached in the NFL before becoming actual Head Coaches.
Not saying it cannot or will not happen - just that there is a lot of evidence or red flags to suggest caution is needed before annointing Murray as a bonafide fantasy stud from Day I.
The best comparison may be Carson Wentz, and his breakout was Year II (and dont forget he's had some injury problems that are related to being a scrambler/mobile QB) . See also Robert Griffin III (re: health not development as QB). Murray has to pretty much start from Day 1 AND if he follows Jackson & Allen and has to be a major rusher / scrambler from the get-go, there is a fairly significant risk he will get injured because NFL defences are not College Defences and Murray only has 1 full year of experience handling this.
https://raisingzona.com/2019/05/02/offe ... -weakness/
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/284 ... -rookie-qb
* - In Arizonas defence they did convert him successfully to a Punter