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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:42 pm
by honcho55
Prison_Mike wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:14 am
honcho55 wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:42 pm
May as well keep it rolling with RBs, since I took a peek.

LeVeon Bell and Melvin Gordon. Man, I’d be real uncomfortable taking either of these guys at the tail end of the 1st round in a startup, where they are going. What’s the precedent for Bells age/year off/switching teams? For long term? How about Gordon’s mileage? I’ll target these guys for redraft but I’ll take Chubb or Mixon instead for dynasty all day.
Team 1 in my sig is very upset w you right now
Haha you’re fine. They are still studs, just doesn’t match up in ADP/rankings to me. That team should be real solid

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:56 pm
by M-Dub
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:11 pm
M-Dub wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:50 am
Not sure why this has become a contrarian opinion, but I’m of the belief that Phillip Lindsay will continue to be the lead back in Denver and put up another high-end RB2 season.
I think it's because the new coaching staff and their scheme fit Freeman more than the last one did. Also Freeman is healthy, and impressing coaches and beat reporters. Lindsay is supposedly behind schedule with his wrist, per Cecil Lammey. He may not get into full contact until mid August. I trust Lammey when it comes to Denver, and he was on Lindsay before anybody last year. This year he is saying get Freeman. He is looking the part, supposedly. As explosive as Lindsay is, he isn't the ideal lead back size, and Freeman looking good and being a 3rd round pick, and being 228 pounds or so, sort of gives the impression Lindsay will be losing carries. I do hear they plan to use Lindsay more in the passing game, which makes sense for his profile. So an increase in reception but a decrease in rush attempts looks to be in the cards.
I would be more than fine with that. I think he was criminally underused in the passing game last year, and in a full PPR setting, targets > carries. Something like 150-160 carries and 70-80 targets would be ideal.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:06 pm
by pvillebiker
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:01 am
The previous post is what I assume the OP is hoping to get out of this thread. Well done. :thumbup:
Yes, well done Lord_varys! Excellent well-articulated post.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:24 pm
by djeternal2
Popular Opinion: Todd Gurley's dead and Henderson will be an RB2 at worst.
Contrarian opinion: Gurley finishes as a mid-low RB1 and Hendo finishes as an RB3. As I stated in one of the myriad of Hendo threads 20% reduction for Gurley would have dropped him to RB6 last year. A whopping 40% reduction drops him all the way to RB12. Arthritis is a pain management issue not a broken leg issue. That means he put up the #s he did last year playing WITH the arthritis. This isn't a sudden onset thing. So a reduction in snaps and/or some touches just means he most likely is able to manage the pain better throughout the whole season instead of just the first 14 weeks. As for Hendo I foresee a rookie season similar to Gio Bernard's 2017. He'll get roughly 100 carries for 450 yds and 40 catches for 400 yds. A conservative 4 TDs with those catch/yardage totals last year would roughly translate to RB30.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:31 pm
by Dynasty DeLorean
pvillebiker wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:06 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:01 am
The previous post is what I assume the OP is hoping to get out of this thread. Well done. :thumbup:
Yes, well done Lord_varys! Excellent well-articulated post.
Image

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:33 pm
by dmac37
Devonta Freeman finishes as a top 6 RB in PPR this season
Jax Jags become more balanced with BDN Foles replacing Bortles & the Jags defense returns to 2017 form and they go to the super bowl
Aaron Rodgers bounces back and is still the top QB in NFL and FF
Jaylen Samuels is the RB to own by the end of the year in Pittsburgh

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:06 am
by Lord_Varys
djeternal2 wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:24 pm
Popular Opinion: Todd Gurley's dead and Henderson will be an RB2 at worst.
"Henderson will be an RB2 at worst" is not a take I've heard anywhere.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:30 am
by murphysxm
djeternal2 wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:24 pm
Popular Opinion: Todd Gurley's dead and Henderson will be an RB2 at worst.
Contrarian opinion: Gurley finishes as a mid-low RB1 and Hendo finishes as an RB3. As I stated in one of the myriad of Hendo threads 20% reduction for Gurley would have dropped him to RB6 last year. A whopping 40% reduction drops him all the way to RB12. Arthritis is a pain management issue not a broken leg issue. That means he put up the #s he did last year playing WITH the arthritis. This isn't a sudden onset thing. So a reduction in snaps and/or some touches just means he most likely is able to manage the pain better throughout the whole season instead of just the first 14 weeks. As for Hendo I foresee a rookie season similar to Gio Bernard's 2017. He'll get roughly 100 carries for 450 yds and 40 catches for 400 yds. A conservative 4 TDs with those catch/yardage totals last year would roughly translate to RB30.
Let me piggy back

Popular Opinion: Todd Gurley's dead and Henderson will be the other running back to own in LA.
Contrarian Opinion: Yes Gurley will lose touches, but Malcolm Brown is the benefactor of those lost carries. They re-signed him for a reason and they trust him. I doubt the touches will amount to enough to warrant getting excited, but Henderson is the most over drafted rookie RB, ever...................

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:30 am
by murphysxm
djeternal2 wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:24 pm
Popular Opinion: Todd Gurley's dead and Henderson will be an RB2 at worst.
Contrarian opinion: Gurley finishes as a mid-low RB1 and Hendo finishes as an RB3. As I stated in one of the myriad of Hendo threads 20% reduction for Gurley would have dropped him to RB6 last year. A whopping 40% reduction drops him all the way to RB12. Arthritis is a pain management issue not a broken leg issue. That means he put up the #s he did last year playing WITH the arthritis. This isn't a sudden onset thing. So a reduction in snaps and/or some touches just means he most likely is able to manage the pain better throughout the whole season instead of just the first 14 weeks. As for Hendo I foresee a rookie season similar to Gio Bernard's 2017. He'll get roughly 100 carries for 450 yds and 40 catches for 400 yds. A conservative 4 TDs with those catch/yardage totals last year would roughly translate to RB30.
Let me piggy back

Popular Opinion: Todd Gurley's dead and Henderson will be the other running back to own in LA.
Contrarian Opinion: Yes Gurley will lose touches, but Malcolm Brown is the benefactor of those lost carries. They re-signed him for a reason and they trust him. I doubt the touches will amount to enough to warrant getting excited about, but Henderson is the most over drafted rookie RB, ever...................

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:33 am
by Dynasty DeLorean
Gurley isn't dead, he's just missing a leg. Big difference.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:45 am
by ArrylT
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:33 am
Gurley isn't dead, he's just missing a leg. Big difference.
Sort of like the Football version of the King Missile song eh? :biggrin:

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:32 am
by ArrylT
Popular Opinion: Kyler Murray will follow Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes to become a QB1 from the get go

Contrarian Opinion: Kyler Murray can succeed in the NFL but it will take longer than 1 year.

Outliers are nice. They are also outliers for a reason - because they they are not the norm and do not happen every day.

Kyler Murray has 1 full season of actual QB play under his belt in 4 years.
Kyler Murray is entering the league in one of the toughest positions to learn to play in
Kyler Murray is on a team where he has no QB mentor (the closest to an experienced NFL QB on Arizonas roster is Brett Hundley)
Assuming the Cardinals do employ an Air Raid type offence - that may benefit Murray, but it does mean the rest of the team needs to learn how to play in it.
The Cardinals are not an organization that have shown they are capable of developing young QBs - the list of successful QBs from Arizona in the past 30 years is Jake Plummer & Josh McCown. The list of 'failed' QBs include - Matt Leinart, Logan Thomas, John Skelton, Stoney Case, Tony Sacca, and Tom Tupa*.
Kyler Murray was drafted in a division with 3 teams with good to very good to elite defences
The last QB to come from an Air Raid system in College was Jared Goff - his rookie season was so good that it had fantasy owners questioning his ability to play QB.
Patrick Mahomes did not actually play his rookie year (other than 1 game) - and he was mentored by Alex Smith.
Baker Mayfield did not start the whole 2018 season and did not finish as a QB1 - in other words he's been annointed a QB1 without having had a QB1 season.
The Arizona Cardinals have yet to prove they have improved their offensive line.
Even rookie QBs who ran a lot in 2018 did not finish as QB1s - see Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen.
The success rate of College Coaches becoming successful Coaches is pretty slim. Those successful offensive minded coaches like McVay & Nagy and such? They actually position coached in the NFL before becoming actual Head Coaches.

Not saying it cannot or will not happen - just that there is a lot of evidence or red flags to suggest caution is needed before annointing Murray as a bonafide fantasy stud from Day I.

The best comparison may be Carson Wentz, and his breakout was Year II (and dont forget he's had some injury problems that are related to being a scrambler/mobile QB) . See also Robert Griffin III (re: health not development as QB). Murray has to pretty much start from Day 1 AND if he follows Jackson & Allen and has to be a major rusher / scrambler from the get-go, there is a fairly significant risk he will get injured because NFL defences are not College Defences and Murray only has 1 full year of experience handling this.

https://raisingzona.com/2019/05/02/offe ... -weakness/
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/284 ... -rookie-qb


* - In Arizonas defence they did convert him successfully to a Punter

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:46 am
by kmbryant09
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:11 pm
M-Dub wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:50 am
Not sure why this has become a contrarian opinion, but I’m of the belief that Phillip Lindsay will continue to be the lead back in Denver and put up another high-end RB2 season.
I think it's because the new coaching staff and their scheme fit Freeman more than the last one did. Also Freeman is healthy, and impressing coaches and beat reporters. Lindsay is supposedly behind schedule with his wrist, per Cecil Lammey. He may not get into full contact until mid August. I trust Lammey when it comes to Denver, and he was on Lindsay before anybody last year. This year he is saying get Freeman. He is looking the part, supposedly. As explosive as Lindsay is, he isn't the ideal lead back size, and Freeman looking good and being a 3rd round pick, and being 228 pounds or so, sort of gives the impression Lindsay will be losing carries. I do hear they plan to use Lindsay more in the passing game, which makes sense for his profile. So an increase in reception but a decrease in rush attempts looks to be in the cards.
Lammey is a great source and I enjoy his content, but his track record with Denver RBs is not great. He pretty much falls in love with whoever sits atop the depth chart once minicamps open. He LOVED R. Hillman and compared him to Jamaal Charles after watching a few practices. I also think he was really impressed with M. Ball and D. Booker.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:02 am
by Lord_Varys
ArrylT wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:32 am
Popular Opinion: Kyler Murray will follow Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes to become a QB1 from the get go

Contrarian Opinion: Kyler Murray can succeed in the NFL but it will take longer than 1 year.

Outliers are nice. They are also outliers for a reason - because they they are not the norm and do not happen every day.

Kyler Murray has 1 full season of actual QB play under his belt in 4 years.
Kyler Murray is entering the league in one of the toughest positions to learn to play in
Kyler Murray is on a team where he has no QB mentor (the closest to an experienced NFL QB on Arizonas roster is Brett Hundley)
Assuming the Cardinals do employ an Air Raid type offence - that may benefit Murray, but it does mean the rest of the team needs to learn how to play in it.
The Cardinals are not an organization that have shown they are capable of developing young QBs - the list of successful QBs from Arizona in the past 30 years is Jake Plummer & Josh McCown. The list of 'failed' QBs include - Matt Leinart, Logan Thomas, John Skelton, Stoney Case, Tony Sacca, and Tom Tupa*.
Kyler Murray was drafted in a division with 3 teams with good to very good to elite defences
The last QB to come from an Air Raid system in College was Jared Goff - his rookie season was so good that it had fantasy owners questioning his ability to play QB.
Patrick Mahomes did not actually play his rookie year (other than 1 game) - and he was mentored by Alex Smith.
Baker Mayfield did not start the whole 2018 season and did not finish as a QB1 - in other words he's been annointed a QB1 without having had a QB1 season.
The Arizona Cardinals have yet to prove they have improved their offensive line.
Even rookie QBs who ran a lot in 2018 did not finish as QB1s - see Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen.
The success rate of College Coaches becoming successful Coaches is pretty slim. Those successful offensive minded coaches like McVay & Nagy and such? They actually position coached in the NFL before becoming actual Head Coaches.

Not saying it cannot or will not happen - just that there is a lot of evidence or red flags to suggest caution is needed before annointing Murray as a bonafide fantasy stud from Day I.

The best comparison may be Carson Wentz, and his breakout was Year II (and dont forget he's had some injury problems that are related to being a scrambler/mobile QB) . See also Robert Griffin III (re: health not development as QB). Murray has to pretty much start from Day 1 AND if he follows Jackson & Allen and has to be a major rusher / scrambler from the get-go, there is a fairly significant risk he will get injured because NFL defences are not College Defences and Murray only has 1 full year of experience handling this.

https://raisingzona.com/2019/05/02/offe ... -weakness/
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/284 ... -rookie-qb


* - In Arizonas defence they did convert him successfully to a Punter

^^^ The goods, right here!

If I'm being honest though, I hate it, because I have way too much Kyler in best balls. I feel like he'll be better in fantasy than real life, though.

Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:40 am
by Sriracha
ArrylT wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:32 am
Popular Opinion: Kyler Murray will follow Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes to become a QB1 from the get go

Contrarian Opinion: Kyler Murray can succeed in the NFL but it will take longer than 1 year.

Outliers are nice. They are also outliers for a reason - because they they are not the norm and do not happen every day.

Kyler Murray has 1 full season of actual QB play under his belt in 4 years.
Kyler Murray is entering the league in one of the toughest positions to learn to play in
Kyler Murray is on a team where he has no QB mentor (the closest to an experienced NFL QB on Arizonas roster is Brett Hundley)
Assuming the Cardinals do employ an Air Raid type offence - that may benefit Murray, but it does mean the rest of the team needs to learn how to play in it.

The Cardinals are not an organization that have shown they are capable of developing young QBs - the list of successful QBs from Arizona in the past 30 years is Jake Plummer & Josh McCown. The list of 'failed' QBs include - Matt Leinart, Logan Thomas, John Skelton, Stoney Case, Tony Sacca, and Tom Tupa*.
Kyler Murray was drafted in a division with 3 teams with good to very good to elite defences
The last QB to come from an Air Raid system in College was Jared Goff - his rookie season was so good that it had fantasy owners questioning his ability to play QB.
Patrick Mahomes did not actually play his rookie year (other than 1 game) - and he was mentored by Alex Smith.
Baker Mayfield did not start the whole 2018 season and did not finish as a QB1 - in other words he's been annointed a QB1 without having had a QB1 season.
The Arizona Cardinals have yet to prove they have improved their offensive line.
Even rookie QBs who ran a lot in 2018 did not finish as QB1s - see Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen.
The success rate of College Coaches becoming successful Coaches is pretty slim. Those successful offensive minded coaches like McVay & Nagy and such? They actually position coached in the NFL before becoming actual Head Coaches.

Not saying it cannot or will not happen - just that there is a lot of evidence or red flags to suggest caution is needed before annointing Murray as a bonafide fantasy stud from Day I.

The best comparison may be Carson Wentz, and his breakout was Year II (and dont forget he's had some injury problems that are related to being a scrambler/mobile QB) . See also Robert Griffin III (re: health not development as QB). Murray has to pretty much start from Day 1 AND if he follows Jackson & Allen and has to be a major rusher / scrambler from the get-go, there is a fairly significant risk he will get injured because NFL defences are not College Defences and Murray only has 1 full year of experience handling this.

https://raisingzona.com/2019/05/02/offe ... -weakness/
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/284 ... -rookie-qb


* - In Arizonas defence they did convert him successfully to a Punter
Very good points you raised, in Bold.

I don't agree as much with your other points. Kingsbury is running the Air Raid offense, so Murray doesn't have to go from the monumental shift from Air Raid in college to Pro Style in the NFL. Mayfield also would've torn up the league from Day 1; but he's a bit of an outlier as he came into the NFL as the most statistically accomplished QB in NCAAAF history (not an exaggeration).

Great take, and while I agree with your overall point.. what people are really banking on in ARZ is Kingsbury's attempt at running a high tempo, pass heavy offense. In such an offense, the QB doesn't necessarily have to be "good" since he's going to have enough volume to overcome his deficiency (in FF). There is a fair amount of questions about 1. If the Air Raid offense can translate into the NFL (I believe it's something NFL defenses aren't ready for, and absolutely can succeed) and 2. If the O-line can play at a high enough level to allow it to work. Assuming those 2 are true, If Murray isn't flat out terrible, there is fantasy value all across the board in this offense.