So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:27 am

I thought that before last year^^^^^^. I believe in Juju now. He's a baller. Really early breakout age, and he plays tough. He's legit IMO. I missed on him. I could have had him for an early first last year in a few spots and passed. I learned my lesson.

On another note. We have a "bad trade offers" thread. We should have a "bad trade" thread. A thread where people can go to gripe about the league rube handing over the keys to the league to the defending champ etc. I'll start it.
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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:32 am

Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:19 am It is honestly less about Godwin and more about my belief that everyone is grossly overvaluing JuJu. I see him being a mid to low WR2 in 2019.

It is also disingenuous to talk about "averages" when AB missed three games in two years - and the only one he missed last year saw JuJu net a whopping 37 yards on 10 targets against a team that allowed the most yards in the air per game all year.
The only thing disingenuous going on here is leaving out the TD he also scored in that game. :wink:

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby Phaded » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:39 am

You are right - his pathetic performance was buoyed by the lone TD in terms of fantasy.

JuJu is a fine #2 - he is not a #1 as those who have not sold will have their unfortunate rude awakening to soon.

But since you want to play that game - Godwin put up the same # of TDs as JuJu last year.. On 71 less targets.

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:44 am

That's not the point. Even in the 1 game where he wasn't a stud (without AB) you want to showcase, he was still startable in fantasy. Antonio Brown had 15 TDs last season. Highly likely Juju's TD was depressed due to his presence.

Juju's production at such a young age is absolutely bonkers. Was it helped by AB's presence? Of course, but even dating back to his college days he's shown that he was an elite prospect-- he had 1454 yards and 10TDs as a young, true sophmore at USC. Sure he took a dip during his senior year, but that type of early success is very indicative of talent. He's not simply a product of AB taking away defensive attention.

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby Phaded » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:49 am

I never said he was a product of it, but there are people who have JuJu as a top 5 or even top 10 asset. They will regret it. He will still produce at a mid to low WR2 level but people are setting themselves up for disappointment.

It's like when people had Coop as a top 3 asset with the false notion that these young guys will only improve.

I am not going to argue it because quite frankly; if people want to hitch on to this horse that can be their undoing and I don't really care to talk people out of it.

This notion of "bad trade cause consensus says" crap needs to stop.

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:53 am

Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:49 am I never said he was a product of it, but there are people who have JuJu as a top 5 or even top 10 asset. They will regret it. He will still produce at a mid to low WR2 level but people are setting themselves up for disappointment.

It's like when people had Coop as a top 3 asset with the false notion that these young guys will only improve.

I am not going to argue it because quite frankly; if people want to hitch on to this horse that can be their undoing and I don't really care to talk people out of it.
I think you're over-correcting for AB's influence on Juju's production, but time will tell.

I'm personally more concerned with Big Ben falling of the face of the map than I am Juju struggling vs WR1 defensive attention.

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby DinoDynasty » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:18 pm

Who cares if you believe that Godwin might outscore Juju going forward. There is no argument that there value is anywhere close to each other at this time. The same way I don’t care if Daniel Jones is the next TB13, he shouldn’t have been picked at 6 overall because it was terrible value at that time. This is clearly a very lopsided trade and the team getting JuJu is getting away with highway robbery. Whether or not you are high or low on JuJu his market value is so much higher than Godwin there is no argument that they could be viewed in the same lens.
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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby Phaded » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:21 pm

Anyone who has played fantasy football for long enough knows that "consensus market value" is a farce and that in reality, value differs pretty significantly between each individual league.

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby Ice » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:34 pm

Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:21 pm Anyone who has played fantasy football for long enough knows that "consensus market value" is a farce and that in reality, value differs pretty significantly between each individual league.
Exactly
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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:38 pm

Well that's how you win trades in the long run is getting out ahead of a change in value. So if you believe Godwin will produce at an equal or higher level than Juju will it makes sense to take a deal that will be looked at by most as a loss today, but turns into a win if/when you are right. Sure there's the risk that you are wrong, but you have to take risks at times to get ahead.

This board is littered with topics of trades and draft decisions that are absolutely killed by the masses, then turn out to be lopsided in the other direction. A lot of people were saying last year it would be insane to take Saquon Barkley over a guy like David Johnson in a startup, now there is not a single person on this site that wouldn't do just that.

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby CubfanAA » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:39 pm

Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:21 pm Anyone who has played fantasy football for long enough knows that "consensus market value" is a farce and that in reality, value differs pretty significantly between each individual league.
I wish this could be stickied at the top of every discussion on this forum. It's probably the most true statement that could be posted about fantasy football.

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:23 pm

Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:21 pm Anyone who has played fantasy football for long enough knows that "consensus market value" is a farce and that in reality, value differs pretty significantly between each individual league.
You still to live in that leagues reality though

You trade based on current value and hope in the future you extrapolated more than you gave up.

Say gold is $100/oz but I think it will double in 2 years. Am I going to PAY $200/oz??
No that would be insane
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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:26 pm

MrUbuto wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:23 pm
Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:21 pm Anyone who has played fantasy football for long enough knows that "consensus market value" is a farce and that in reality, value differs pretty significantly between each individual league.
You still to live in that leagues reality though

You trade based on current value and hope in the future you extrapolated more than you gave up.

Say gold is $100/oz but I think it will double in 2 years. Am I going to PAY $200/oz??
No that would be insane
eh but you are only dealing with 1 seller, so it's not like the example you just listed.

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:29 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:26 pm
MrUbuto wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:23 pm
Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:21 pm Anyone who has played fantasy football for long enough knows that "consensus market value" is a farce and that in reality, value differs pretty significantly between each individual league.
You still to live in that leagues reality though

You trade based on current value and hope in the future you extrapolated more than you gave up.

Say gold is $100/oz but I think it will double in 2 years. Am I going to PAY $200/oz??
No that would be insane
eh but you are only dealing with 1 seller, so it's not like the example you just listed.
Perhaps 1 seller, but multiple buyers. This same owner has done this before. He traded Kamara for what was basically darnold penny and garrapolo in a 1qb league.

I told him next time just send out and email saying.. trading Kamara let the bidding begin.
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TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
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[rookie] Haskins(WAS)DSwift(DET)Jefferson(MIN)MHardman(KC)
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Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players don't take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd-year players that were drafted

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Re: So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

Postby CubfanAA » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:52 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:26 pm
MrUbuto wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:23 pm
Phaded wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:21 pm Anyone who has played fantasy football for long enough knows that "consensus market value" is a farce and that in reality, value differs pretty significantly between each individual league.
You still to live in that leagues reality though

You trade based on current value and hope in the future you extrapolated more than you gave up.

Say gold is $100/oz but I think it will double in 2 years. Am I going to PAY $200/oz??
No that would be insane
eh but you are only dealing with 1 seller, so it's not like the example you just listed.
If you only had access to one seller in your market and they were selling for $150 you would buy it even if it's selling for $100 in markets you don't have access to if you thought it would be worth $200 a year from now.


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