So this trade just went down. One of the worst I've ever seen

[1coldone]

Obviously the OP was looking for people to discuss this trade, maybe see how many agree with his point of view. So, those who do not want to discuss can just ignore it.

That is not the worst trade, I have ever seen, believe me there is much worse...wait until you are paying for a dynasty league and half the league trades their 1st round picks to one team and that guy way over pays for players. Sad part is, they offer low end trades to some owners and over pay for lesser players to other owners. Had one owner get called out (by a different owner) on an overpay and he says "what else was I going to with all those 1st?". Talk about shifting competitive balance in a league. I just flat out left that league the next year.

This year, another bunch of owners are trading their 1st to one owner and he is overpaying a different owner...again. The way it goes in public leagues...lol.

[ArrylT]

My only comment on Juju versus Godwin will be to say that WR1s are usually WR1s based on targets. That is typically 135-140 targets depending on the year. Basically the top 12 WRs in target volume will get 135-140 targets, and as mentioned here every single WR1 in actual production over the past few years had at least 110 targets

https://forum.dynastyleaguefootball.com ... s#p1662116

Whether or not the player is talented enough to deserve those targets is a different story - see the Jarvis Landry debate after his 2017 season.

Juju Smith-Schuster was WR 22 in 2017 on 80 targets - 191 points
Chris Godwin was WR 26 in 2018 on 95 targets - 185 points
Juju Smith-Schuster was WR 8 IN 2018 on 166 targets - 297 points

Mid WR2 is WR 18 - so using typical 12 team ppr
In 2018 that was 219 points
In 2017 that was 200 points
In 2016 that was 217 points
In 2015 that was 227 points
In 2014 that was 221 points

So basically Smith-Schuster & Godwin were already in mid WR2 range with 80-100 targets in their current QB situations/offences. We've seen that with WR1 targets JJSS put up WR1 season. There is almost no precedent for a WR getting WR1 volume to not put up WR1 or high end WR2 production. The closest thing to it is Deandre Hopkins year with Osweiler/Savage and their sub 3000 yards passing, and he was WR26.

Even Jarvis Landrys much debated 2017 season where he did not reach 1000 yards even with 148 targets he was a WR1 in ppr.

As long as a WR gets 130+ targets and has an average QB at minimum - the odds are in their favor that they will produce at least a high end WR2 season, if not outright WR1 season. Marvin Jones & Golden Tate are solid examples of this playing with Stafford and getting 120 & 107 targets in 2017 and were low end WR1s / high end WR 2s.

So basically for either of Godwin or JJSS to be a low end WR2 or worse, they'll likely need some combination of (a) below 140 targets, (b) their starting QB to be injured long-term and/or (c) them to get injured & miss time. But apart from that - so long as they get WR1 level targets - history suggests they are a very safe bet for WR1 production.

[Farley]

You still to live in that leagues reality though

You trade based on current value and hope in the future you extrapolated more than you gave up.

Say gold is $100/oz but I think it will double in 2 years. Am I going to PAY $200/oz??
No that would be insane

eh but you are only dealing with 1 seller, so it's not like the example you just listed.

If you only had access to one seller in your market and they were selling for $150 you would buy it even if it's selling for $100 in markets you don't have access to if you thought it would be worth $200 a year from now.

No. Because if you can actually look into the future and be sure of exact player values, then you should spend your time buying players who have market values of $100, future values of $200, and are being currently discounted in your league at $90.

Bottom line is, you actually don't know what's going to happen. And if you are so arrogant to believe that your prognostic abilities are that much better than the majority's, and you're so willing to overpay based on your cocky assumptions, then you'll be an epic failure in fantasy football.