June Rookie ADP Observations

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ninotoreS
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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby ninotoreS » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:29 am

IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:46 am
Hock is the best TE prospect since..... OJ Howard. :lol:
Nope. Better prospect coming out than Howard.

Howard played four relatively mundane years at Bama before declaring, and actually regressed a little bit his senior year. It wasn't exactly his fault due to the system there, but bottom line, Howard had more 'project' elements to his profile than Hock; his profile was much more projection of potential than already demonstrated tape reality.

Hock is declaring after just two college seasons and had already proven enough doing so to be a top 10 pick (i.e. phenom indicator). His sophomore season is better than any of Howard's at Bama, and Hock already boasts the tape reality of a combo-TE that can do everything at a high level in the pros, together with an elite workout.

Just in terms of complete profile (tape, workout, measurements, age, production), Hock is the best floor/ceiling TE prospect making the pro jump in a long time. Maybe since Gonzo.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby jcc6fd » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:38 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:29 am
IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:46 am
Hock is the best TE prospect since..... OJ Howard. :lol:
Nope. Better prospect coming out than Howard.

Howard played four relatively mundane years at Bama before declaring, and actually regressed a little bit his senior year. It wasn't exactly his fault due to the system there, but bottom line, Howard had more 'project' elements to his profile than Hock; his profile was much more projection of potential than already demonstrated tape reality.

Hock is declaring after just two college seasons and had already proven enough doing so to be a top 10 pick (i.e. phenom indicator). His sophomore season is better than any of Howard's at Bama, and Hock already boasts the tape reality of a combo-TE that can do everything at a high level in the pros, together with an elite workout.
So what you're saying is, I shouldn't pass on Hock if he falls to 1.09 in my half PPR 1 TE league? Any concerns about his ability to produce in the DET offense?
10 Team Half PPR Scoring: 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex DST K
QB: Mahomes, Super Cam, Darnold, D. Jones
RB: Gurley, Fournette, Cook, Guice, Lindsay, D. Henderson, Bernard, M. Brown, J. Jackson
WR: Julio, K. Allen, Cooks, TY, Edelman, Ty Williams, MVS
TE: Kelce, Cook, McDonald
IR: B. Love

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby ninotoreS » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:47 am

Even in that format, I would take Hock at 1.9 and cackle about it.

I don't see the Detroit landing spot being a problem. Indeed, that roster needs pass-catchers.
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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:54 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:47 am
Even in that format, I would take Hock at 1.9 and cackle about it.

I don't see the Detroit landing spot being a problem. Indeed, that roster needs pass-catchers.
Situation should be irrelevant in dynasty formats.
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)ISmith(MIN)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)
DGoeddart(PHI)
1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby IZigUZag » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:56 am

MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:54 am
ninotoreS wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:47 am
Even in that format, I would take Hock at 1.9 and cackle about it.

I don't see the Detroit landing spot being a problem. Indeed, that roster needs pass-catchers.
Situation should be irrelevant in dynasty formats.
Situation should be discounted in dynasty formats-- it's still very important. Especially at RB.

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:24 pm

jcc6fd wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:28 am
MrUbuto wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:20 am
What's your knock on fant and hock? They seem like potentially generational talent? Why shoildndeebo go ahead of them?
It’s nothing against them, it’s just a general observation that guys like Metcalf, Brown, and Campbell, who were drafted later, are going ahead of the TE’s. I like them fine but am taking a cautious approach. The top TE’s in every class typically get a value boost but it doesn’t necessarily correlate with fantasy success.

If I were to point out one thing for each it would be Hock playing in a pretty rough situation in DET (run first and bad history of underutilizing receiving TE’s) and Fant drops too many balls. Not overly concerned about either, just don’t think they’re slam dunks and they’re rookie TE’s
The Lions have def tried to detail several tight ends careers over the years but if you look back over the last ten years or so tight ends have a pretty good hit rate. Hit being usable, not necessarily stud. It's a pretty safe position( though without a huge ceiling) as far as busts go if you draft an early tight end.
12 man Superflex deep starting requirements with even scoring among positions

11 starters - QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Superflex, Flex, Flex, Flex.

1 PPR, 1 points every 10 yards rushing/receiving, 4 points per 100 passing, 4 point passing TDs, -2 INT.

TE premium 1.5 PPR and 1 point per 8.5 yards receiving.

QB- Russel Wilson, Sam Darnold, Kyle Allen, Cam Newton, Dwayne Haskins, Bad Luck, Geno Smith, Sean Mannion, Tim Boyle

RB -Dalvin Cook, James White, Raashad Penny, Dare Ogunbowale

WR - Davante Adams, Mike Evans, JuJu, Keenan Allen, Tyler Boyd, Robby Anderson, Allen Lazard, Antonio Callaway, Kelvin Harmon

TE - Evan Engram, Chris Herndon, Noah Fant, Gerald Everett, Jordan Thomas


2020- 1,3,4,5
2021 -1,2,3,4

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MrUbuto
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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:27 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:56 am
MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:54 am
ninotoreS wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:47 am
Even in that format, I would take Hock at 1.9 and cackle about it.

I don't see the Detroit landing spot being a problem. Indeed, that roster needs pass-catchers.
Situation should be irrelevant in dynasty formats.
Situation should be discounted in dynasty formats-- it's still very important. Especially at RB.
Ok fair enough not completely discounted but in my opinion more or less discounted.

Guys you are drafting in the first 2 rounds were usually day 1 or 2 picks so presumably they will be in the league at least 5 years but you are aiming for 7 or 8.

That is an absolute lifetime in fantasy. 80% of the coaches and GMS will be gone by then things will be unfathomable different in even 3 years. Trying to predict what the lions offensive philosophy will be in 2 seasons is absolutely pointless
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)ISmith(MIN)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)
DGoeddart(PHI)
1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

hoos89
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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby hoos89 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:13 pm

Yes, but I would rather have someone in a good situation right now.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, Washington
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Ertz, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 2, 3rd, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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MrUbuto
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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:28 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:13 pm
Yes, but I would rather have someone in a good situation right now.
Well I guess in a tie breaker sure.

Prospect A has a 9.3/10 prospect rating but is absolutely buried behind 4 really good passing options and the QB has said already he is retiring and they also have been vocal about having an improved run game

Prospect B has a 8.7/10 prospect rating but has just had 2 other pass g options retire a 3 year QB who made pro bowls year 1 and 2 and is already publicly said player B is his go too guy in camp.

I still take player A. You may have 18-24 months of pain but long term you always take skill and talent and work ethic etc over situation. Imo
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)ISmith(MIN)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)
DGoeddart(PHI)
1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby hoos89 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:39 pm

I take 8.7. Not that big of a gap in talent and I'd expect the market value from early performance to cause the 8.7 prospect to be worth materially more than the 9.3 the following season.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, Washington
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Ertz, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 2, 3rd, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


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