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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:05 am
by FantasyFreak
IZigUZag wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:45 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:54 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:45 pm
Yes, this class of RBs is pretty lackluster; and the need for RBs is pushing up Henderson's value just as much as the Gurley news. I personally believe the Gurley news (very strongly) so flex with RB1 upside is unfortunately worth the 1.06 spot in this draft :c
You need to put "news" in quotation marks, because it isn't news, it's speculation. I believe the ADP is a direct cause of the media echo chamber that simply discusses Gurley's knee, and people start believing it, despite the fact no new information has come out. People are focusing on the negative, and it's pushing his ADP up. There is both positive and negative speculation about Gurley, but people are focusing on the negative and this in the only reason Henderson's ADP is so high. Anyway, don't want to derail this thread. There are 2 threads already discussing this.
:lol: You're free to believe what you wish. At worst there is a fair chance that the people worried about Gurley's health are correct, and that upside should be included. If you're completely disregarding the doubt over his health... you're doing even more speculation on the other end of the spectrum.
Agreed. I haven't done so, but I have actually traded for Gurley in 2 leagues since all this stuff started happening, I am on the other side of the fence to you. I believe it's being blown out of proportion, as do so many things in the media these days.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:09 am
by IZigUZag
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:05 am
Agreed. I haven't done so, but I have actually traded for Gurley in 2 leagues since all this stuff started happening, I am on the other side of the fence to you. I believe it's being blown out of proportion, as do so many things in the media these days.
Definitely a possibility, and I'm certainly rooting for him. He seems like a class act.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:38 am
by remedy29
I like how people downplay Gurley situation as media speculation. I could have sworn the last time I saw Gurley play he was rather ordinary to downright bad, he couldn't even catch passes out of the backfield. The Rams then spend a high draft pick on a rookie RB and compare him to a Kamara type player. It's as if people think the Rams will draft an offensive weapon and not give him touches. Even if it's as a COP back, he can still qualify as RB2. And, I for one, certainly think he will get significantly more touches at some point in the next 32 to 48 games.

I do think 1.06 is a little high, but certainly think he is a late first, so splitting hairs really.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:51 am
by ninotoreS
I think JJAW is underrated. He's buried on his chart for now, but it would not shock me at all if ends up the best WR to come from this rookie class.

Deebo at the late 1st, early 2nd range is right where he should be, and if anything that might be slightly too high. He's getting a lot of hype for a guy that coach Welker criticizes as being overweight for the position (Welker claims Deebo needs to lose ten pounds to run routes inside the way he needs to, and if Deebo loses those pounds, will he still be the same RB-like runner after the catch?), but most importantly imo, no one seems to want to acknowledge that his durability is a major question mark -- he is once again missing time in minicamp with his umpteenth hamstring issue. He had one healthy year in four years of college ball, folks. This is a significant concern!

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:57 am
by sugbear65
Another topic derailed by the Gurly/Henderson debate. I for one am not at all getting tired of hearing the same damn arguments over and over again. As a special treat you don’t even have to click a Rams RB related topic anymore to enjoy all the “insights”. Lol. I can be as bad as anyone on going off topic, but hasn’t everybody said their peace at this point on the issue?
Getting back on track, I completely agree with the take on Singletary being underrated. I like him as much or more than any other RBs in this class, so the fact he’s a 2nd round pick at all screams value to me. I’m guessing it’s a combo of him being more a lunch pail caring type RB than a flashy dancer type , coupled with the perceived “bad spot” of being drafted by Buffalo driving the price down. Whatever the case, take advantage.
I’m also on board with M. Brown, I’d take him over guys that tend to go first like Campbell, Hardmon, Isabella.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:16 am
by blemly
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:42 pm
Let's get the Mecole Hardman hype train going full speed too.
Interestingly enough, I’ve noticed Hardman’s ADP swinging the other way following the news that Hill won’t be prosecuted. Wasn’t on my radar at all, but recently fell to 2.07 which felt too good to pass up.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:54 am
by jcc6fd
blemly wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:16 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:42 pm
Let's get the Mecole Hardman hype train going full speed too.
Interestingly enough, I’ve noticed Hardman’s ADP swinging the other way following the news that Hill won’t be prosecuted. Wasn’t on my radar at all, but recently fell to 2.07 which felt too good to pass up.
Yeah, I’ve heard through the grapevine that people are lower on Hardman now in relation to increased optimism on Hill. Getting a second round WR in that offense in the mid 2nd has to feel like a win whether you like him or not.

Also, my apologies to everyone for revving up more Henderson debate. It wasn’t my intention, but I should have known including him would cause this. It just felt disingenuous to not include him in a discussion about value relative to ADP. I hope everyone gambling on him early is rewarded for their efforts. In this draft more than other recent years it feels like you have the freedom to chase your guys despite consensus.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:01 pm
by smbkrypt24
blemly wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:16 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:42 pm
Let's get the Mecole Hardman hype train going full speed too.
Interestingly enough, I’ve noticed Hardman’s ADP swinging the other way following the news that Hill won’t be prosecuted. Wasn’t on my radar at all, but recently fell to 2.07 which felt too good to pass up.
Hardman is definitely swinging the other way. He went 1.03 in a rookie draft at the end of April. At that time I was shocked about the pick. I thought he would creep into the 1st with him being deemed as the T. Hill replacement, but 1.03 seemed aggressive.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:09 pm
by FantasyFreak
sugbear65 wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:57 am
Another topic derailed by the Gurly/Henderson debate. I for one am not at all getting tired of hearing the same damn arguments over and over again. As a special treat you don’t even have to click a Rams RB related topic anymore to enjoy all the “insights”. Lol. I can be as bad as anyone on going off topic, but hasn’t everybody said their peace at this point on the issue?
Getting back on track, I completely agree with the take on Singletary being underrated. I like him as much or more than any other RBs in this class, so the fact he’s a 2nd round pick at all screams value to me. I’m guessing it’s a combo of him being more a lunch pail caring type RB than a flashy dancer type , coupled with the perceived “bad spot” of being drafted by Buffalo driving the price down. Whatever the case, take advantage.
I’m also on board with M. Brown, I’d take him over guys that tend to go first like Campbell, Hardmon, Isabella.
Kind of hard when Henderson is in the ADP observation, but I agree. However, I do have to correct you. It's not the Gurley/Henderson debate. It's the Henderson/Gurley debate. :wink:

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:10 pm
by jcc6fd
ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:51 am
I think JJAW is underrated. He's buried on his chart for now, but it would not shock me at all if ends up the best WR to come from this rookie class.

Deebo at the late 1st, early 2nd range is right where he should be, and if anything that might be slightly too high. He's getting a lot of hype for a guy that coach Welker criticizes as being overweight for the position (Welker claims Deebo needs to lose ten pounds to run routes inside the way he needs to, and if Deebo loses those pounds, will he still be the same RB-like runner after the catch?), but most importantly imo, no one seems to want to acknowledge that his durability is a major question mark -- he is once again missing time in minicamp with his umpteenth hamstring issue. He had one healthy year in four years of college ball, folks. This is a significant concern!
Good post, and you’re definitely right about the injury concerns surrounding Deebo. My initial reaction was to think the injuries were the reason people passed on him, this he’s a higher talent with significant risk that you can get somewhat cheaply. However, if people just aren’t excited about him and then you add the injuries on top, he’s likely not a bargain.

I almost made JJAW an underrated player in my analysis. Just thought he was going at about the right spot at 15th

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:26 pm
by hoos89
sugbear65 wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:57 am
Another topic derailed by the Gurly/Henderson debate. I for one am not at all getting tired of hearing the same damn arguments over and over again. As a special treat you don’t even have to click a Rams RB related topic anymore to enjoy all the “insights”. Lol. I can be as bad as anyone on going off topic, but hasn’t everybody said their peace at this point on the issue?
Getting back on track, I completely agree with the take on Singletary being underrated. I like him as much or more than any other RBs in this class, so the fact he’s a 2nd round pick at all screams value to me. I’m guessing it’s a combo of him being more a lunch pail caring type RB than a flashy dancer type , coupled with the perceived “bad spot” of being drafted by Buffalo driving the price down. Whatever the case, take advantage.
I’m also on board with M. Brown, I’d take him over guys that tend to go first like Campbell, Hardmon, Isabella.
Singletary isn't higher because he's a non-power conference player with a bad athletic profile. I also think Buffalo is an above average landing spot given that (a) McCoy will be 31 when the season starts and he didn't look good last year, and (b) the Bills were #4 in the league in rushing attempts last season and #2 in 2017...so I don't think that's what's driving his value down.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:20 am
by MrUbuto
What's your knock on fant and hock? They seem like potentially generational talent? Why shoildndeebo go ahead of them?

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:28 am
by jcc6fd
MrUbuto wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:20 am
What's your knock on fant and hock? They seem like potentially generational talent? Why shoildndeebo go ahead of them?
It’s nothing against them, it’s just a general observation that guys like Metcalf, Brown, and Campbell, who were drafted later, are going ahead of the TE’s. I like them fine but am taking a cautious approach. The top TE’s in every class typically get a value boost but it doesn’t necessarily correlate with fantasy success.

If I were to point out one thing for each it would be Hock playing in a pretty rough situation in DET (run first and bad history of underutilizing receiving TE’s) and Fant drops too many balls. Not overly concerned about either, just don’t think they’re slam dunks and they’re rookie TE’s

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:41 am
by ArrylT
I am aware that it seems like Gurley/Henderson dominate a lot of the talk this off-season, however that unfortunately only makes sense because nature abhors a vacuum, and has been mentioned many a time already, its all speculation until the games begin again. So when you have one of the games best players in one of the games best offences, and the potential is there that he may need to be replaced, it is only natural that dynasty owners are going to talk about it a lot. It is a akin to like living in a small town (dynasty forum) back before the advent of the internet and the only major news was that a major celebrity/film star/musician came through town.

The main problem is a lot of the talk comes across, fairly or unfairly, as 'absolute' at times - as if it is the only logical outcome.

Anyways here is an interesting thought to ponder.

Before NFL landings were known Hendersons ADP in Mocks was ranging from 80-90. It immediately dropped 20 spots in May, due to his landing spot (ie perceived as being blocked) but now it is at 70 and trending upward fast. Lets repeat that for a second.

His pre-draft ADP was already top 100.

http://www.mizelle.net/mfl/2019/

He was one of only 7 2019 Rookie players whose ADP on Mizelle was constantly above 100 for the Feb-April pre-draft mock period.

That suggests there was a healthy segment of the dynasty community that was high on Henderson even before his landing spot & draft pedigree was known (3rd round for RBs is pretty solid). So when you combine a segment already high on Henderson, with the constant drumbeats from another segment that Gurley is a Bust, and the desire to get your guy is high in a season where it is basically open-season* and Henderson can go as early as 1.03 at times it only makes sense** that his draft adp would be as high as it is. This does not mean he will go at 1.06 in every draft - just that any league where an owner really wants Henderson you know where to start at.

* - even the top 4 guys by many peoples reckoning in Jacobs/Harry/Montgomery/Sanders do not go 1-2-3-4 in more than say 55-60% of rookie drafts.

** - not saying the cost is worth the acquisition price just that the cost is understandable due to the factors involved.

Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:55 am
by Dynasty DeLorean
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:41 am
it seems like Henderson dominate this season one of the games best players in one of the games best offences

Gurley is a Bust
wow, strong takes from Arry