June Rookie ADP Observations
Posted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:01 pm
I know many rookie drafts have already happened but I wanted to share some observations from my predraft process.
I compile a spreadsheet where I list the top 40-50 consensus rookies and list data points like, NFL team, height, weight, position, NLF draft position, combine metrics, SPARQ/advanced metrics, (playerprofiler.com), college dominator, ect. and do a gut check comparison of all these factors to dynasty ADP (I use Mizelle's dynasty ADP utility, which is awesome). This is not a statistical analysis, and I don't claim to be a statistician, it's just helpful in that it provides some objective stats to compare my film watching and news reading to when making my personal rankings. This year I thought I'd share some brief reactions to Mizelle's June ADP. A caveat should be noted that these are startup drafts which I assume do not directly correlate perfectly to actual rookie draft ADP. Mizelle's rookie draft page only includes a top 10-12 rankings, so I use the startup numbers for my 3-4 round analysis.
ADP link (filtered for June only and Rookies only): http://mizelle.net/mfl/2019/
One last time, these are merely my observations in comparing ADP to the above listed metrics. College observations or better statistical analysis will obviously lead to different conclusions, but I think this is interesting.
1st round (picks 1-12)
Overrated Players:
David Montgomery (ADP 1.03)
Guy is drafted in the 3rd round and has so many talented players drafted in front of him. He has good size but his measurables are average to bad across the board. Based on measurables and draft capital he wreaks of a player who is overdrafted due to perceived opportunity who ultimately disappoints at his overall ADP of 1.03 (thinking Royce Freeman). I realize this is product of the RB landscape and that RB production is so hard to come by, but this feels like a desperate reach. He's a player I'd avoid based on his price.
Darrell Henderson (ADP 1.06)
Yes, you read that correctly. Darrell Henderson is the consensus 1.06 by ADP based almost solely on offseason news about Todd Gurley. There's a long debate about this already ongoing, but suffice to say his 3rd round pedigree, while playing behind an entrenched franchise player make his ADP seem extremely lofty. He's going ahead of AJ Brown... It's a shame because based on the film he's a guy I would have liked to take a chance on. But those highlight videos where he's running through gaping holes untouched against Mercer don't convince me he's a mid-early first rounder.
Most Underrated player: Deebo Samuel (ADP 1.12)
Third WR taken in the NFL draft in the very early 2nd round (2.04). I understand the arguments for Harry, Brown, DK and maybe even Campbell being taken ahead of him. But Hardman and both TEs are also going ahead of him. I don't think 1.12 is an egregiously low spot, but it seems like a really good value for a guy who is going under the radar with good draft capital, good measurables, nice college production when healthy and a fairly wide open depth chart in SF. Only definite knock is his health history and age (he's older because he missed time in college), but Samuel seems like an upside guy you get at a discount because he flew under the radar. BTW he looks like an absolute wrecking ball after the catch.
Biggest Snub: Marquise Brown (APD 1.13)
I know the numerous knocks against this guy: size, injury history, drafted by a run first team with questionable QB play. I understand why he's fallen for many, but it just seems odd to me that an electric playmaker who was the first WR taken in the draft can't make it into the first round if rookie drafts. We often say talent should outweigh situation but this wreaks of situation outweighing talent. Think Brown is a great value at the turn of the first round. I've heard he's fallen further in some leagues.
2nd round (picks 13-24)
Overrated Player: Justice Hill (ADP 16)
Guy is taken in the 4th round, by a team with a ton of RBs ahead of him on the depth chart, and he's going ahead of Kyler Murray (1 QB), Andy Isabella and Devin Singletary? That seems odd to me. It has to be the 4.40 forty time, right? If he can run that fast and was drafted that late, it means something.
Underrated Players: Andy Isabella (ADP 18) Devin Singletary (ADP 19)
Based purely on draft position these guys appear to be values at their current ADP. Not advocating to take either much higher but Isabella is in the same NFL draft range of most of the WR's taken in the first round of rookie drafts but can be had considerably cheaper. Obviously there are reasons why but in this year's rookie class he seems to be a value. Singletary could be a huge value a year from now with less internal competition in buffalo. Heck he could be a great value a lot earlier if Buffalo waives McCoy. I like him at his current price.
3rd round (picks 25-36) - No Overrated players at this point in the draft
Guys I like: Bryce Love (ADP 33), Miles Boykin, (ADP 27), Dwayne Haskins (ADP 32) Rodney Anderson (ADP 40)
In this year's draft you could get Bryce Love, a former Heismen candidate and fourth round RB, for the price of a very late 3rd. That seems like tremendous value. Throw in Guice's injury uncertainty and this feels like a slam dunk (for a flier anyway). I'm skeptical that Love is falling this far in true rookie drafts.
Miles Boykin is another Raven I feel is dropping solely due to the Lamar Jackson effect. Boykin's measurables were only topped by DK. He's tall, big and very fast, with better agility than DK too (but who doesn't). Chris Conley seems like the floor here (they're actually comp'd on playerprofiler), but Boykin feels like a great upside pick, which I love in the 3rd.
At pick 32 of a draft known for being shallow, getting a NFL first round selection has to feel like a win. I know Haskins is a QB and that he's not viewed as a particularly enticing fantasy QB. But who is more likely to be a fantasy asset, Haskins or Dexter Williams (6th round RB for GB)? I'd have to feel very strongly about my flier pick to take him above Haskins 25-32.
Anderson is appropriately not getting much love in mocks. His situation behind Mixon is not a great one. But Mixon (and all RBs) get hurt and Anderson feels like a big upside pick or even a free WW add depending on league size. If you can roster him for free I'd be chasing him.
I compile a spreadsheet where I list the top 40-50 consensus rookies and list data points like, NFL team, height, weight, position, NLF draft position, combine metrics, SPARQ/advanced metrics, (playerprofiler.com), college dominator, ect. and do a gut check comparison of all these factors to dynasty ADP (I use Mizelle's dynasty ADP utility, which is awesome). This is not a statistical analysis, and I don't claim to be a statistician, it's just helpful in that it provides some objective stats to compare my film watching and news reading to when making my personal rankings. This year I thought I'd share some brief reactions to Mizelle's June ADP. A caveat should be noted that these are startup drafts which I assume do not directly correlate perfectly to actual rookie draft ADP. Mizelle's rookie draft page only includes a top 10-12 rankings, so I use the startup numbers for my 3-4 round analysis.
ADP link (filtered for June only and Rookies only): http://mizelle.net/mfl/2019/
One last time, these are merely my observations in comparing ADP to the above listed metrics. College observations or better statistical analysis will obviously lead to different conclusions, but I think this is interesting.
1st round (picks 1-12)
Overrated Players:
David Montgomery (ADP 1.03)
Guy is drafted in the 3rd round and has so many talented players drafted in front of him. He has good size but his measurables are average to bad across the board. Based on measurables and draft capital he wreaks of a player who is overdrafted due to perceived opportunity who ultimately disappoints at his overall ADP of 1.03 (thinking Royce Freeman). I realize this is product of the RB landscape and that RB production is so hard to come by, but this feels like a desperate reach. He's a player I'd avoid based on his price.
Darrell Henderson (ADP 1.06)
Yes, you read that correctly. Darrell Henderson is the consensus 1.06 by ADP based almost solely on offseason news about Todd Gurley. There's a long debate about this already ongoing, but suffice to say his 3rd round pedigree, while playing behind an entrenched franchise player make his ADP seem extremely lofty. He's going ahead of AJ Brown... It's a shame because based on the film he's a guy I would have liked to take a chance on. But those highlight videos where he's running through gaping holes untouched against Mercer don't convince me he's a mid-early first rounder.
Most Underrated player: Deebo Samuel (ADP 1.12)
Third WR taken in the NFL draft in the very early 2nd round (2.04). I understand the arguments for Harry, Brown, DK and maybe even Campbell being taken ahead of him. But Hardman and both TEs are also going ahead of him. I don't think 1.12 is an egregiously low spot, but it seems like a really good value for a guy who is going under the radar with good draft capital, good measurables, nice college production when healthy and a fairly wide open depth chart in SF. Only definite knock is his health history and age (he's older because he missed time in college), but Samuel seems like an upside guy you get at a discount because he flew under the radar. BTW he looks like an absolute wrecking ball after the catch.
Biggest Snub: Marquise Brown (APD 1.13)
I know the numerous knocks against this guy: size, injury history, drafted by a run first team with questionable QB play. I understand why he's fallen for many, but it just seems odd to me that an electric playmaker who was the first WR taken in the draft can't make it into the first round if rookie drafts. We often say talent should outweigh situation but this wreaks of situation outweighing talent. Think Brown is a great value at the turn of the first round. I've heard he's fallen further in some leagues.
2nd round (picks 13-24)
Overrated Player: Justice Hill (ADP 16)
Guy is taken in the 4th round, by a team with a ton of RBs ahead of him on the depth chart, and he's going ahead of Kyler Murray (1 QB), Andy Isabella and Devin Singletary? That seems odd to me. It has to be the 4.40 forty time, right? If he can run that fast and was drafted that late, it means something.
Underrated Players: Andy Isabella (ADP 18) Devin Singletary (ADP 19)
Based purely on draft position these guys appear to be values at their current ADP. Not advocating to take either much higher but Isabella is in the same NFL draft range of most of the WR's taken in the first round of rookie drafts but can be had considerably cheaper. Obviously there are reasons why but in this year's rookie class he seems to be a value. Singletary could be a huge value a year from now with less internal competition in buffalo. Heck he could be a great value a lot earlier if Buffalo waives McCoy. I like him at his current price.
3rd round (picks 25-36) - No Overrated players at this point in the draft
Guys I like: Bryce Love (ADP 33), Miles Boykin, (ADP 27), Dwayne Haskins (ADP 32) Rodney Anderson (ADP 40)
In this year's draft you could get Bryce Love, a former Heismen candidate and fourth round RB, for the price of a very late 3rd. That seems like tremendous value. Throw in Guice's injury uncertainty and this feels like a slam dunk (for a flier anyway). I'm skeptical that Love is falling this far in true rookie drafts.
Miles Boykin is another Raven I feel is dropping solely due to the Lamar Jackson effect. Boykin's measurables were only topped by DK. He's tall, big and very fast, with better agility than DK too (but who doesn't). Chris Conley seems like the floor here (they're actually comp'd on playerprofiler), but Boykin feels like a great upside pick, which I love in the 3rd.
At pick 32 of a draft known for being shallow, getting a NFL first round selection has to feel like a win. I know Haskins is a QB and that he's not viewed as a particularly enticing fantasy QB. But who is more likely to be a fantasy asset, Haskins or Dexter Williams (6th round RB for GB)? I'd have to feel very strongly about my flier pick to take him above Haskins 25-32.
Anderson is appropriately not getting much love in mocks. His situation behind Mixon is not a great one. But Mixon (and all RBs) get hurt and Anderson feels like a big upside pick or even a free WW add depending on league size. If you can roster him for free I'd be chasing him.