Sell Now Players!!!

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
TimeWillTell
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby TimeWillTell » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:16 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:14 pm
That was in reply to Hoos89 saying I should do the theoretical trade even though I don't want the players, then flip them for players that I do want.

But yes I am going to keep all of my Barkley shares unless someone makes me a truly absurd offer lol.
As a Barkley owner, I'm curious what absurd offer you'd need to move him?
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Wentz, Darnold, Jones
RB: Barkley, Penny, Singletary, Hill, McKissic
WR: Evans, DJ Moore, Davis, Chark, P. Williams, AJB, Pettis, JJAWS
TE: Andrews, Hock, Herndon, J. Smith, Thomas, Gronk
K: Gould
Def: NYJ
2020 Picks: 1.01,1.02,1.03,1.04, 1.xx, 1.xx, 1.xx, 2.03, 2.04, 2.xx, 2.xx

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby Bot101 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:18 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:28 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:56 pm
I would easily reject Juju + Conner for Barkley.
You're a crazy person.
I sold Barkley for Chubb/Evans. Id much rather have Chubb/Evans than Conner/Juju.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:27 pm

TimeWillTell wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:16 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:14 pm
That was in reply to Hoos89 saying I should do the theoretical trade even though I don't want the players, then flip them for players that I do want.

But yes I am going to keep all of my Barkley shares unless someone makes me a truly absurd offer lol.
As a Barkley owner, I'm curious what absurd offer you'd need to move him?
No clue, I'd know it if I saw it.

Anyway this thread is getting a bit off track...

Who else does everyone consider "Sell Now"?

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:20 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:14 pm
That was in reply to Hoos89 saying I should do the theoretical trade even though I don't want the players, then flip them for players that I do want.

But yes I am going to keep all of my Barkley shares unless someone makes me a truly absurd offer lol.
Right. That makes more sense. :lol:
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby hoos89 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:29 pm

I think JuJu + Conner is truly absurd, personally. Unless my roster was already totally stacked I would easily take that.

And in most circumstances I wouldn't recommend doing a deal for players you don't like...but when there's that much margin on the deal I think it makes sense (unless you're in a league where deals are extremely difficult). The odds that you wouldn't be able to end up with a net trade that wouldn't still be positive value is slim. There are owners (particularly those in rebuild) who would trade one of Adams, OBJ or Thomas for him straight up or for a nominal add (I just had a startup where JuJu when ahead of Thomas). Similarly I don't think it would be difficult to go from Conner to one of Gurley, Gordon, DJ, Bell, Chubb or Cook. You could probably get at least one of those guys straight up in most leagues. It's possible you'll end up having to add a bit to get both deals done, but I'd still feel pretty good about something like Barkley + 2nd + 3rd for Thomas + Chubb or something like that.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.x, 1.x, 2.03, 2.x, 2.x, 3.05, 3.x, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.x, 1.x, 2.x, 2.x

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:44 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:29 pm
I think JuJu + Conner is truly absurd, personally. Unless my roster was already totally stacked I would easily take that.

And in most circumstances I wouldn't recommend doing a deal for players you don't like...but when there's that much margin on the deal I think it makes sense (unless you're in a league where deals are extremely difficult). The odds that you wouldn't be able to end up with a net trade that wouldn't still be positive value is slim. There are owners (particularly those in rebuild) who would trade one of Adams, OBJ or Thomas for him straight up or for a nominal add (I just had a startup where JuJu when ahead of Thomas). Similarly I don't think it would be difficult to go from Conner to one of Gurley, Gordon, DJ, Bell, Chubb or Cook. You could probably get at least one of those guys straight up in most leagues. It's possible you'll end up having to add a bit to get both deals done, but I'd still feel pretty good about something like Barkley + 2nd + 3rd for Thomas + Chubb or something like that.
I drafted Juju ahead of Thomas and OBJ in a recent league. I wanted him on one of my teams, so I "reached" a bit. If find the WR position safer to look at long term compared to RB. The way I see it, if Juju can reproduce close to his numbers from last year, he will be the Dynasty WR1 next year in a lot of people's books. Juju is 4 years younger than the other top WR's, so in 2-3 years, when all of these other WR's are approaching 30, and see a value drop, Juju, provided he continues to produce, will be worth a lot more than them. If you can get 85-90 percent production of those players, but get the added value of being able to trade him for the elite value in 3 years time, I think it's a no brainer. Now a lot depends on this year, but IF he produces another high end season without AB there, he is going to be tough to trade for any WR straight up in a years time.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby MrUbuto » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:38 pm

Barkley >>>>>>>> Conner and juju

Barkley >>> chubb and Evan's

Barkley is special. Like Peterson special.
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)Haskins(WAS)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:36 am

Guys like Juju and Conner come into the league and pop up all the time.

Players like Barkley are very rare, and when they do appear are nearly impossible to get. So when I already have him I'm holding him and I'll find my Conners and Jujus elsewhere to put around him.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby ArrylT » Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:02 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:36 am
Guys like Juju and Conner come into the league and pop up all the time.

Players like Barkley are very rare, and when they do appear are nearly impossible to get. So when I already have him I'm holding him and I'll find my Conners and Jujus elsewhere to put around him.
That may or may not be true about Conner.

However the list of WRs who in their first 2 seasons that put up similar production to Juju Smith-Schuster (160 receptions & 2300 yards) comes to a total of 4.

Odell Beckham
AJ Green
Michael Thomas
Juju Smith-Schuster

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... i?id=T69dy

If we weaken the parameters to 150 receptions & 2100 yards

You add Fitzgerald, Colston & Cooper to the list

http://pfref.com/tiny/QqCLk

Even weakening the parameters further to 140 reception & 2000 yards brings up 15 total names since 1970

http://pfref.com/tiny/YiqTc

If we assume JJSS will have a really bad 3rd year regression of say 60-800 which would put him at 220-3100 for his first 3 years.

http://pfref.com/tiny/9fXPr

Assuming a more favorable but still negative regression of say 80-1000 would put him at 240-3300 after 3 years.

Would bring us back to that select group of 3 guys with 1 addition of Anquan Boldin.

http://pfref.com/tiny/Aelq3

Assuming a strong year 3 of 100-1200 which would put him at 260-3500 after 3 years, would remove Boldin from that list and only leave you with the 4 names I originally mentioned.

So from historical context, no guys with JJSSs production in their first 2 years, or even if we assume a negative regression for Year III & spread it to 3 years, it simply is not something that occurs frequently or is easy to get from Day I as a WR.

I've left out TDs since most owners agree that TDs are highly volatile from year to year.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:07 am

Again you are taking me too literally ArrylT haha.

I've already said that I view Juju as a low WR1-High WR2, those types of guys come into the league all the time.

Barkley is on a completely different level.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby ArrylT » Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:33 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:07 am
Again you are taking me too literally ArrylT haha.

I've already said that I view Juju as a low WR1-High WR2, those types of guys come into the league all the time.

Barkley is on a completely different level.
I certainly would not disagree that on a 1 year spectrum, it would not be too difficult to find a WR who puts up that production for that 1 year. I am just attempting to show that said production on a yearly basis from the same WR year in and year out, from the start of their career, is not a very different proposition than say getting Barkley production year in and year out.

Not on the same tier but perhaps the next tier below.

Regardless I am not advocating selling Barkley - I think if an owner owns Barkley - in all situations even total rebuilds - they should hold him unless getting a massive haul.

I just believe that while you might approximate high end WR2 or low end WR1 production on a yearly basis by guessing correctly about which veteran situations to target - for year in & year out reliability, much like Barkley is for RBs, and Mahomes is promising to be for QBs, JJSS is about half a step away from that top tier of WRs already. What you see as a low WR1-High WR2 is about 1 WR3 season away from having 3 years of production only 4 guys have done ever from the start of their career.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:53 am

MrUbuto wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:38 pm
Barkley >>>>>>>> Conner and juju

Barkley >>> chubb and Evan's

Barkley is special. Like Peterson special.
I don't agree with this.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:55 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:36 am
Guys like Juju and Conner come into the league and pop up all the time.

Players like Barkley are very rare, and when they do appear are nearly impossible to get. So when I already have him I'm holding him and I'll find my Conners and Jujus elsewhere to put around him.
Receivers that put up over 100 catches and 1400 yards at the age of 22 pop up "all the time". I was unaware.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:03 am

Low end WR1s pop up all the time in comparison to generational talent RBs like Saquon Barkley.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:28 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:03 am
Low end WR1s pop up all the time in comparison to generational talent RBs like Saquon Barkley.
Sure, but guys who do it at that age, don't is my point.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay


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