Sell Now Players!!!

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
hoos89
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby hoos89 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:02 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:08 pm
psfox2010 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:07 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:34 pm


Conner is over vastly over rated/valued, Juju is a low WR1 - Very High WR2. Barkley is the best RB and fantasy asset in the league.

Trade your Barkley shares for that and you are going to be sorely regretting it in 2 years.
Calling JuJu a low end WR1-high end WR2 immediately makes you lose all credibility.
K
JuJu was WR8 as a 21/22 year old.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, B. Hill
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Hockenson, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 3, 3rd x 2, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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bjd5211
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:04 pm

Ok, and I expect him to stay in that range, which is a low WR1-High WR2

hoos89
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby hoos89 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:08 pm

So you don't expect a 21/22 year old to improve as he enters his prime?
Last edited by hoos89 on Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, B. Hill
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Hockenson, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 3, 3rd x 2, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:10 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:58 pm
And both of those statements are true IMO. I guess we'll see, but have zero interest in Conner and don't thibk he's anything special and while I like Juju I don't see him in the the class of Nuk/AB etc.
Fair enough. IF you have Barkley, you should only deal him in a situation you feel comfortable with, getting players that you like.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 23-5

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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bjd5211
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:11 pm

Sure he will improve as a player, but that doesn't mean he will improve his stat line.

hoos89
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby hoos89 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:15 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:10 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:58 pm
And both of those statements are true IMO. I guess we'll see, but have zero interest in Conner and don't thibk he's anything special and while I like Juju I don't see him in the the class of Nuk/AB etc.
Fair enough. IF you have Barkley, you should only deal him in a situation you feel comfortable with, getting players that you like.
I don't necessarily agree: I believe that is insane value for any one player, which means there's plenty of margin to flip the players and still come away with crazy value. How much would you have to add to JuJu to get Thomas or Adams from a deep rebuild? I'd guess that deal could be done pretty cheaply in a lot of leagues. How much would you have to add to Conner to get someone like Chubb or DJ? Maybe a 2nd? There's a lot of room for error in between where you still come away with crazy value from a deal like this. Yes, it's a bit of a risk if you really don't like Conner and JuJu, but I see this as enough of an overpay to be worth the risk.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, B. Hill
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Hockenson, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 3, 3rd x 2, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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bjd5211
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:26 pm

Well I've already stated that I value Conner FAR lower than the average person on this board, so that's a big factor, player values aren't static from owner to owner. Plus while I really like Juju, he's being valued at level he has not yet reached nor do I believe he will reach. I think he stays in the WR8-15 range year to year, but most expect him to reach AD/Nuk/OBJ/Julio levels of production. So those 2 valuations on my end don't come close to Barkley who have as the far and away number 1 asset both short and long-term.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:40 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:26 pm
Well I've already stated that I value Conner FAR lower than the average person on this board, so that's a big factor, player values aren't static from owner to owner. Plus while I really like Juju, he's being valued at level he has not yet reached nor do I believe he will reach. I think he stays in the WR8-15 range year to year, but most expect him to reach AD/Nuk/OBJ/Julio levels of production. So those 2 valuations on my end don't come close to Barkley who have as the far and away number 1 asset both short and long-term.
What do you consider long term? Valuing any RB as the number 1 asset long term (depending on your idea of what that is) is a a mistake IMO. I have Barkley as the 1.01, but 2-3 years from know, I have no idea where he will be ranked. I certainly would not expect Barkley to be the 1.01 in 4 years, for instance.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 23-5

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:58 pm

I don't see any reason as of right now he wouldn't be considered 1.01 4 years from now. His situation couldn't have been much worse than it was this year and yet he performed at an elite level as a rookie. Sure an injury could derail him, but it's just as likely to happen to anyone else as it is to him, and he has no injury history or lingering concerns so I'm not going to play the what if game. Coming into the league he was considered one of the best (if not THE best) RB prospects to ever enter the league and then went out and proved that was justified. He's only going to get better as a player, and his team can't get much worse so he is a very safe bet to at worst continue to perform at the level he just did. Now being the #1 asset doesn't necessarily mean you are going to end up as the actual #1 scoring player, but you are the best bet to do so. LaDainian Tomlinson was the locked in #1 pick for like 6 or 7 years (at least in redraft, wasn't doing dynasty at the time), but only had I believe 2 seasons he actually finished as the #1 RB, he was always top 5 though while the other RBs were always changing. I fully expect Saquon to be on the short list of greatest RBs to ever play the game by time his career is done and the only thing that can change that is a major injury.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:14 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:58 pm
I don't see any reason as of right now he wouldn't be considered 1.01 4 years from now. His situation couldn't have been much worse than it was this year and yet he performed at an elite level as a rookie. Sure an injury could derail him, but it's just as likely to happen to anyone else as it is to him, and he has no injury history or lingering concerns so I'm not going to play the what if game. Coming into the league he was considered one of the best (if not THE best) RB prospects to ever enter the league and then went out and proved that was justified. He's only going to get better as a player, and his team can't get much worse so he is a very safe bet to at worst continue to perform at the level he just did. Now being the #1 asset doesn't necessarily mean you are going to end up as the actual #1 scoring player, but you are the best bet to do so. LaDainian Tomlinson was the locked in #1 pick for like 6 or 7 years (at least in redraft, wasn't doing dynasty at the time), but only had I believe 2 seasons he actually finished as the #1 RB, he was always top 5 though while the other RBs were always changing. I fully expect Saquon to be on the short list of greatest RBs to ever play the game by time his career is done and the only thing that can change that is a major injury.
There are a few good reason My point is trying to predict the 1.01 4 years out is too prone to variables. He play the position that takes the most beating, if he gets a huge workload for 4 straight years, lingering injuries could easily ensue. The idea of injuries to that position especially, need to be factored in. I'm not saying Barkley won't be the 1.01 4 years from now, but we can't bank on it. Too much can change. Look at Todd Gurley. Yes, he had an ACL, but people around here constantly tout that an ACL is no big deal. Even a year ago there was no reason to assume Gurley was not a top 3 startup pick. Barkley may get marginally better, but he's not going to improve the way a WR can from year 1 to year 3 for instance. That's just the nature of the position. This year could be very tough for him with the loss of OBJ. He'll still get tons of work, but he might find it harder to run with no threat on the outside like OBJ. I love Barkley, as most do, but I just don't feel confident assuming he is the top dynasty pick 4 years out.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 23-5

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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bjd5211
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:19 pm

He's the best bet as of today with the information we have, yes it can change but there's no red flags attached with him outside of "maybes" that can be applied to anyone else in the league.

Like I said I'm not going to play the what if game with him and injuries.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby hoos89 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:38 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:19 pm
He's the best bet as of today with the information we have, yes it can change but there's no red flags attached with him outside of "maybes" that can be applied to anyone else in the league.

Like I said I'm not going to play the what if game with him and injuries.
While I agree that Barkley is probably the most likely player to be #1 four years from now just because he's young and the most valuable player currently (and there's no 22-23 year old WR in the top 5 of ADP right now), that doesn't mean that he's more likely than not to be #1 (I'd put the odds at maybe 15%...but I wouldn't put any other player above 10%). It's pretty rare for one player to be #1 in dynasty ADP for more than 2 seasons in a row, much less a running back. It's a volatile position and I would not personally want to keep THAT much value tied up in one running back if I had the ability to exit at a price as good as Conner + JuJu. Sure you might not be as high as most on those particular players, but there are most likely owners in your league who are high on those players (especially JuJu...rebuilding owners are crazy about him). I'd expect you to be able to be able to get players you prefer via a straight up swap or better if you are in fact that low on them. You're essentially betting on Barkley having a top 5 all-time RB career if you're turning that down, which is not impossible but does require a lot of luck even assuming he really is that talented.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Gaskin, B. Hill
Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Da. Moore, Lazard
Hockenson, Herndon, OJ
IR(2): Love, Coleman
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, MVS
2020 Picks: 1st x 4, 2nd x 3, 3rd x 2, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Stidham
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Higbee, Reed
2020 Picks: 1st x 5, 2nd x 2

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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bjd5211
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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:52 pm

But the player I want the most is Barkley, and I already have him.

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:09 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:52 pm
But the player I want the most is Barkley, and I already have him.
That wasn't what I was talking about, LOL. I was talking about projecting guy to be 1.01 4 years out. :lol: Nevermind. Keep Barkley.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 23-5

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:14 pm

That was in reply to Hoos89 saying I should do the theoretical trade even though I don't want the players, then flip them for players that I do want.

But yes I am going to keep all of my Barkley shares unless someone makes me a truly absurd offer lol.


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