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Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:57 pm
by hoos89
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:59 pm
hoos89 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:52 pm
jomaed wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:41 pm
What are people selling/buying Sammy Watkins for?
I'd want at least a mid 2020 1st to sell. Would buy for a late 1st.
2020 late first is worth way more.

I wouldnt give more than a high 2nd for a guy who wont play 16 games. And I wouldn't trade Sammy away for a high 2nd so that means I wont be trading for him
Strongly disagree that a late 1st is worth way more than Sammy. How highly are you valuing late 1sts? Typical ADP for a late 1st is in the 70-90 range. I can't tell if this is 2020 hype run amok if you're telling me that you wouldn't take Sammy over someone like Will Fuller (ADP 71), Sterling Shepard (ADP 75), Rashaad Penny (ADP 81) or Tevin Coleman (ADP 90). Also Sammy didn't miss a game due to injury literally 2 seasons ago...people act like he misses 8+ games literally every season.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:03 am
by killer_of_giants
hoos89 wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:29 am
killer_of_giants wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:24 am
djeternal2 wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:02 am
Do you think he's going to jump ahead of Cooper
he was actually better than cooper in 8 weeks out of the 14 where they both played (and another one was a tie).
In the fantasy weeks when Amari was with the Cowboys (9-16), he was the WR6. In that same timeframe, Godwin was the WR42 (and he was WR34 on the year).

E: I know Godwin had a strong week 17 and Amari did not, but MFL doesn't show week 17 so I can't really see a ranking including that week (in other words: I'm not intentionally cherry picking that week). In any case...still laughable to suggest that Godwin should be anywhere near Amari's value right now.
yeah so what?
i merely stated a fact. WR6 in that stretch came from two games and not much else. he may have won you those two weeks, may have lost you a couple too.
cooper has been ace or bleep pretty much his all career, regardless of his fantasy-evaluation. i don't see that changing.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:05 am
by hoos89
I think you're being a tad overly dismissive of matchup winning upside...plus it's not like Godwin has been any more consistent. He had a similarly inconsistent stretch in those weeks except his good weeks weren't nearly as good and his bad weeks were worse (9.2 total points in weeks 14-16). Also Cooper was traded mid-season...reasonable to believe he gets more consistent following an offseason with the Cowboys.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:46 am
by killer_of_giants
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:05 am
I think you're being a tad overly dismissive of matchup winning upside...
possibly, but three weeks in a whole season, and several sub 3 points games? too random for me.
depends on the rest of your team and how you like to play, but i ain't getting any shares of cooper for sure.


hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:05 am
Also Cooper was traded mid-season...reasonable to believe he gets more consistent following an offseason with the Cowboys.
i have my doubts.
the thing is his "value" is largely based on what he could be, not what he is, nor what i think he will be.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:05 am
by hoos89
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:46 am
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:05 am
I think you're being a tad overly dismissive of matchup winning upside...
possibly, but three weeks in a whole season, and several sub 3 points games? too random for me.
depends on the rest of your team and how you like to play, but i ain't getting any shares of cooper for sure.
I don't really think his bad weeks with the Raiders should be counted against him at this point. His down weeks with the Cowboys weren't as bad.
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:46 am
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:05 am
Also Cooper was traded mid-season...reasonable to believe he gets more consistent following an offseason with the Cowboys.
i have my doubts.
the thing is his "value" is largely based on what he could be, not what he is, nor what i think he will be.
This conversation started with you comparing him to Godwin....that is literally all Godwin's value is based on (except that Godwin has done far less).

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:16 am
by killer_of_giants
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:05 am
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:46 am
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:05 am
I think you're being a tad overly dismissive of matchup winning upside...
possibly, but three weeks in a whole season, and several sub 3 points games? too random for me.
depends on the rest of your team and how you like to play, but i ain't getting any shares of cooper for sure.
I don't really think his bad weeks with the Raiders should be counted against him at this point. His down weeks with the Cowboys weren't as bad.
4/32/0, 4/20/0, 5/31/0 where his last three regular season games with the cowboys...

hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:05 am
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:46 am
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:05 am
Also Cooper was traded mid-season...reasonable to believe he gets more consistent following an offseason with the Cowboys.
i have my doubts.
the thing is his "value" is largely based on what he could be, not what he is, nor what i think he will be.
This conversation started with you comparing him to Godwin....that is literally all Godwin's value is based on (except that Godwin has done far less).
i compared their weekly production, rather than their overall production (godwin "wins" that).
more as a dig at cooper really, i don't think i've said anywhere their value is the same.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:44 am
by MrUbuto
I think people are giving up on sammy way to early. Hes had a very difficult 3 years. But he is still very much elite

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:45 am
by hoos89
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:16 am
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:05 am
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:46 am

possibly, but three weeks in a whole season, and several sub 3 points games? too random for me.
depends on the rest of your team and how you like to play, but i ain't getting any shares of cooper for sure.
I don't really think his bad weeks with the Raiders should be counted against him at this point. His down weeks with the Cowboys weren't as bad.
4/32/0, 4/20/0, 5/31/0 where his last three regular season games with the cowboys...

hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:05 am
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:46 am

i have my doubts.
the thing is his "value" is largely based on what he could be, not what he is, nor what i think he will be.
This conversation started with you comparing him to Godwin....that is literally all Godwin's value is based on (except that Godwin has done far less).
i compared their weekly production, rather than their overall production (godwin "wins" that).
more as a dig at cooper really, i don't think i've said anywhere their value is the same.
And in his previous 6 he went 5/58/1, 6/75/0, 3/36/0, 8/180/2, 8/76/0, 10/217/3. I think you're being unduly critical here...it's unreasonable to expect a WR to come in mid-season and put up consistent production every week. What we did see from Cooper with the Cowboys was promising. It just kind of feels like you made up your mind about Cooper and confirmation bias is causing you to overemphasize every negative while dismissing every positive.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:02 am
by Bot101
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:45 am
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:16 am
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:05 am


I don't really think his bad weeks with the Raiders should be counted against him at this point. His down weeks with the Cowboys weren't as bad.
4/32/0, 4/20/0, 5/31/0 where his last three regular season games with the cowboys...

hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:05 am


This conversation started with you comparing him to Godwin....that is literally all Godwin's value is based on (except that Godwin has done far less).
i compared their weekly production, rather than their overall production (godwin "wins" that).
more as a dig at cooper really, i don't think i've said anywhere their value is the same.
And in his previous 6 he went 5/58/1, 6/75/0, 3/36/0, 8/180/2, 8/76/0, 10/217/3. I think you're being unduly critical here...it's unreasonable to expect a WR to come in mid-season and put up consistent production every week. What we did see from Cooper with the Cowboys was promising. It just kind of feels like you made up your mind about Cooper and confirmation bias is causing you to overemphasize every negative while dismissing every positive.
Well said. The entire offense took a major step forward. And with the new offense it very well could be even better. Im very excited for the Cowboys. I went out and got Cooper in my home league and Dak in all 3 of my dynasty leagues.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:53 am
by killer_of_giants
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:45 am
And in his previous 6 he went 5/58/1, 6/75/0, 3/36/0, 8/180/2, 8/76/0, 10/217/3. I think you're being unduly critical here...it's unreasonable to expect a WR to come in mid-season and put up consistent production every week. What we did see from Cooper with the Cowboys was promising. It just kind of feels like you made up your mind about Cooper and confirmation bias is causing you to overemphasize every negative while dismissing every positive.
this makes 2 barn burners, 1 good game, a couple of meh, and 4 garbage ones.
as i said, it doesn't make me hard. if it makes you, fair enough, i'm not telling people to not buy this guy.
i'm just stating why i don't like him: he has a tendency to disappear.

(i also dislike the cowgirls quite a bit, there might be some bias there, although my opinion on cooper was pretty much the same when he was a raider)

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:54 pm
by Lord_Varys
Five tight ends have accumulated 185+ catches, 2000+ yards, and 10+ TDs through their first 4 seasons. The first four are pretty unsurprising names:
Kellen Winslow
Rob Gronkowski
Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
The fifth? Eric Ebron

I get it that he'll probably have some TD regression. But he has one of the top 3 young QBs in the game, is young himself, is on pace for greatness.... At a certain point you stop overthinking things and just enjoy the ride.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:03 pm
by Dynasty DeLorean
Lord_Varys wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:54 pm
Five tight ends have accumulated 185+ catches, 2000+ yards, and 10+ TDs through their first 4 seasons. The first four are pretty unsurprising names:
Kellen Winslow
Rob Gronkowski
Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
The fifth? Eric Ebron

I get it that he'll probably have some TD regression. But he has one of the top 3 young QBs in the game, is young himself, is on pace for greatness.... At a certain point you stop overthinking things and just enjoy the ride.
That... doesn't seem accurate. Zach Ertz is just one guy off the top of my head that fits those numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if there are others as well if Ertz was missed.

edit: jimmy Graham as well. And some of those players were close to or either got those numbers through just their first 3 seasons or so. Its kind of apples to oranges when most put up much better numbers than ebron. But it could be interesting if the list was correct.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:05 pm
by TheNuts
Yeah I don't get this thread. Sell all the good players for players you just hope are good!

Allen Robinson is not even close to a sell. His value is extremely low for a number one, especially for Nagys offense. He is a buy if anything. Give me Arob over any second round rookie and probably any first round rookie outside of Murray.

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:41 pm
by Ray Finkle
killer_of_giants wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:53 am
hoos89 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:45 am
And in his previous 6 he went 5/58/1, 6/75/0, 3/36/0, 8/180/2, 8/76/0, 10/217/3. I think you're being unduly critical here...it's unreasonable to expect a WR to come in mid-season and put up consistent production every week. What we did see from Cooper with the Cowboys was promising. It just kind of feels like you made up your mind about Cooper and confirmation bias is causing you to overemphasize every negative while dismissing every positive.
this makes 2 barn burners, 1 good game, a couple of meh, and 4 garbage ones.
as i said, it doesn't make me hard. if it makes you, fair enough, i'm not telling people to not buy this guy.
i'm just stating why i don't like him: he has a tendency to disappear.

(i also dislike the cowgirls quite a bit, there might be some bias there, although my opinion on cooper was pretty much the same when he was a raider)
Well, if you aren't achieving that then what's the point of any of this?

Re: Sell Now Players!!!

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:09 pm
by Pullo Vision
I've had Cooper in several leagues over the years and I know what @killer_of_giants is talking about. The extreme ups and downs are nerve wracking. I sold in my sig league because his floor is too low. I'll gladly pick him up in another league where his any-game ceiling would be fantastic.