Darrell Henderson

[MrUbuto]

Then why even comment?

Maybe you should do some more reading here.

[TheNuts]

Then why even comment?

Maybe you should do some more reading here.

Because you seem unaware that not considering a players situation part of their ranking is poor way to go about ranking. Maybe you could get better rankings if you learned this?

[Cult of Dionysus]

Here's my prediction for Henderson's 2019 stat line:

700 yrds rushing / 6 TDs / 600 yds receiving / 50 catches / 0 TDs

[FantasyFreak]

Here's my prediction for Henderson's 2019 stat line:

700 yrds rushing / 6 TDs / 600 yds receiving / 50 catches / 0 TDs

Mine is 600 rushing, 35 catches ,300 receiving yards. 5 rush TD's 2 receiving TD's. Your yards per catch seem to high for me.

[DJB]

Im still pretty leary of taking him in the first. Much more comfortable in the 2nd. I still feel like the entire fall of Gurley is slightly overblown

[TheNuts]

Here's my prediction for Henderson's 2019 stat line:

700 yrds rushing / 6 TDs / 600 yds receiving / 50 catches / 0 TDs

50 receptions and 600 yards seem high to not have any touchdowns

[MEuRaH]

Here's my prediction for Henderson's 2019 stat line:

700 yrds rushing / 6 TDs / 600 yds receiving / 50 catches / 0 TDs

Lofty.

In NFL history, only 5 RBs have ever put up numbers like this their rookie season, and I'm excluding the touchdown count. Barkley & Kamara are two players. Then you have Billy Sims (1st overall pick 1980), Charley Taylor (3rd overall pick 1964), and the great Herschel Walker who had over 2000 yards in the USFL his first year before becoming a stud in the NFL. (Source)

I don't think DH belongs with these guys. He's an undersized third round pick who isn't going to be the starter.

I would lower expectations. The Rams had about 370 RB carries last year, 256 of which went to Gurley, which averages out to about 18.3 touches per game. I expect him to get about 12-15 of those carries per game this year, giving DH most of the rest. So let's round the 18.3 up to 18.5, and let's give Gurley 13.5 carries per game and give DH the rest so the math works a little easier.

DH now has 5 carries per game, giving him 80 carries for the year. 80 carries at 4.5 YPC -- which I think is over-estimating-- gives him 360 rushing yards.

The Rams had about 80 total receptions among RBs last year, Gurley with 60 of those receptions, averaging about 4 per game. I wouldn't be shocked to see DH get 2-4 catches a game consistently, as this is what I think the Rams drafted him for. 3 catches per game * 16 games = 48 receptions. The average YPR is about 10 for a RB, so 48*10 = 480.

This is my guess for maximum production (ceiling) assuming Gurley stays healthy. 360 yards rushing, 480 yards receiving. I'd actually lower that to 300/400 for a better guess. 300 yards rushing, 400 receiving.

EDIT: If the Rams utilize DH the way the Bears utilize Cohen, I would increase the reception yardage. We'll know after week 1. The Rams won't use Gurley in the pre-season, so I'm not putting any weight into that as a barometer of what's to come.

[Sriracha]

So of the 154 carries opening up in the scenario you envisioned... DH is going to get 80? Malcolm Brown going to take up the other 100? With Kelly taking the last 14?

Malcolm Brown averaged 4.9 ypc, while CJ Anderson averaged 7 ypc.

So let's give him 110 of those carries at 4.9 ypc (which seems pretty reasonable given the strength of that offense; and could be even higher depending on how well his big play ability transfers over to the NFL) = 539 rushing yards

[djeternal2]

Here's my prediction for Henderson's 2019 stat line:

700 yrds rushing / 6 TDs / 600 yds receiving / 50 catches / 0 TDs

Lofty.

In NFL history, only 5 RBs have ever put up numbers like this their rookie season, and I'm excluding the touchdown count. Barkley & Kamara are two players. Then you have Billy Sims (1st overall pick 1980), Charley Taylor (3rd overall pick 1964), and the great Herschel Walker who had over 2000 yards in the USFL his first year before becoming a stud in the NFL. (Source)

I don't think DH belongs with these guys. He's an undersized third round pick who isn't going to be the starter.

I would lower expectations. The Rams had about 370 RB carries last year, 256 of which went to Gurley, which averages out to about 18.3 touches per game. I expect him to get about 12-15 of those carries per game this year, giving DH most of the rest. So let's round the 18.3 up to 18.5, and let's give Gurley 13.5 carries per game and give DH the rest so the math works a little easier.

DH now has 5 carries per game, giving him 80 carries for the year. 80 carries at 4.5 YPC -- which I think is over-estimating-- gives him 360 rushing yards.

The Rams had about 80 total receptions among RBs last year, Gurley with 60 of those receptions, averaging about 4 per game. I wouldn't be shocked to see DH get 2-4 catches a game consistently, as this is what I think the Rams drafted him for. 3 catches per game * 16 games = 48 receptions. The average YPR is about 10 for a RB, so 48*10 = 480.

This is my guess for maximum production (ceiling) assuming Gurley stays healthy. 360 yards rushing, 480 yards receiving. I'd actually lower that to 300/400 for a better guess. 300 yards rushing, 400 receiving.

EDIT: If the Rams utilize DH the way the Bears utilize Cohen, I would increase the reception yardage. We'll know after week 1. The Rams won't use Gurley in the pre-season, so I'm not putting any weight into that as a barometer of what's to come.

And all of these #s are based off last year's offense. What happens if the Rams offense regresses? We've seen over the years the Super Bowl hangover is real. I get it's the offseason and everyone want's to see the glass half full; but, no one is raising the issue of something that has already shown itself to be a real thing in the NFL.

[themburns]

Here's my prediction for Henderson's 2019 stat line:

700 yrds rushing / 6 TDs / 600 yds receiving / 50 catches / 0 TDs

Lofty.

In NFL history, only 5 RBs have ever put up numbers like this their rookie season, and I'm excluding the touchdown count. Barkley & Kamara are two players. Then you have Billy Sims (1st overall pick 1980), Charley Taylor (3rd overall pick 1964), and the great Herschel Walker who had over 2000 yards in the USFL his first year before becoming a stud in the NFL. (Source)

I don't think DH belongs with these guys. He's an undersized third round pick who isn't going to be the starter.

I would lower expectations. The Rams had about 370 RB carries last year, 256 of which went to Gurley, which averages out to about 18.3 touches per game. I expect him to get about 12-15 of those carries per game this year, giving DH most of the rest. So let's round the 18.3 up to 18.5, and let's give Gurley 13.5 carries per game and give DH the rest so the math works a little easier.

DH now has 5 carries per game, giving him 80 carries for the year. 80 carries at 4.5 YPC -- which I think is over-estimating-- gives him 360 rushing yards.

The Rams had about 80 total receptions among RBs last year, Gurley with 60 of those receptions, averaging about 4 per game. I wouldn't be shocked to see DH get 2-4 catches a game consistently, as this is what I think the Rams drafted him for. 3 catches per game * 16 games = 48 receptions. The average YPR is about 10 for a RB, so 48*10 = 480.

This is my guess for maximum production (ceiling) assuming Gurley stays healthy. 360 yards rushing, 480 yards receiving. I'd actually lower that to 300/400 for a better guess. 300 yards rushing, 400 receiving.

EDIT: If the Rams utilize DH the way the Bears utilize Cohen, I would increase the reception yardage. We'll know after week 1. The Rams won't use Gurley in the pre-season, so I'm not putting any weight into that as a barometer of what's to come.

Let's get into the touches you've projected. I agree that Gurley will see 12-15 carries, that sounds accurate. At the 13.5 figure, that's 216 rushes over 16 games. Leaving 150 carries off last year to be split between Henderson, M.Brown, and John Kelly, I guess. Assuming Brown gets 2 carries a game (which was his pace last year outside garbage time), there are easily 100-110 carries there for Henderson. 6.5~ a game. You project 2-4 catches a game, that's fair to my mind. At 3 catches a game, Henderson is getting 10 touches a week. Which I was lambasted for suggesting earlier in this thread. (Though I don't know that he'll be that involved in the passing game year 1 truth be told.)

On 110 carries at 4.5 a touch, that's 500 yards. Fantasy Sharks, who make the projections for MFL, has Henderson projected for 111 carries, 665 yards, and 7 TDs. In the passing game 10 catches for 101 yards. It really just feels like we're arguing about expected efficiency, and makes it hard to see why there is all this vitriol around the issue.

[themburns]

Lord Palmerston!

[MEuRaH]

So of the 154 carries opening up in the scenario you envisioned... DH is going to get 80? Malcolm Brown going to take up the other 100? With Kelly taking the last 14?

Malcolm Brown averaged 4.9 ypc, while CJ Anderson averaged 7 ypc.

So let's give him 110 of those carries at 4.9 ypc (which seems pretty reasonable given the strength of that offense; and could be even higher depending on how well his big play ability transfers over to the NFL) = 539 rushing yards

Don't go by the total carries. Gurley was injured last year so that skewed the totals. Go by averages. ~22 carries per game is the norm for most teams. Gurley gets 13/14, DH 5, and then ~3 others for all other RBs. Seems right to me.

You make a good point about YPC. You could bump it to 5.0 YPC but it won't change much on my projections because the volume won't be there.

My post about Rams RB numbers

And all of these #s are based off last year's offense. What happens if the Rams offense regresses? We've seen over the years the Super Bowl hangover is real. I get it's the offseason and everyone want's to see the glass half full; but, no one is raising the issue of something that has already shown itself to be a real thing in the NFL.

Good point. The Rams offense was crazy good. No where to go but down I suppose.

On 110 carries at 4.5 a touch, that's 500 yards. Fantasy Sharks, who make the projections for MFL, has Henderson projected for 111 carries, 665 yards, and 7 TDs. In the passing game 10 catches for 101 yards. It really just feels like we're arguing about expected efficiency, and makes it hard to see why there is all this vitriol around the issue.

I'm expecting around 700 total yards one way, fantasy sharks are over 700 yards a different way. The point is that I don't agree with the 1300 yard projection that was stated earlier.

[FantasyFreak]

Lord Palmerston!

Nice.

[ericanadian]

Lord Palmerston!

Pitt The Elder!!!

[Blueboy]

Throwing my own expectations on the table, 350 yards and 1 TD on the ground with 500 yards and 2 TD through the air. Something comparable to what Duke Johnson did his rookie season. I would personally consider that a very positive outcome for Henderson in Year 1.