What's the value of durability?

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Blueboy
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What's the value of durability?

Postby Blueboy » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:18 am

When ranking players who you feel are of similar value, how much does durability factor in?

For instance, Jarvis Landry is ranked right between Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins. Landry has played 16 games in five consecutive seasons, while Robinson and Watkins have both had significant injury setbacks. Kenyan Drake is ranked two spots behind Jerick McKinnon, and Drake hasn't missed a game in his four-year career. Maybe a similar argument could be made for Hopkins vs OBJ? Hopkins has only missed one game ever iirc.

Is durability a good tiebreaker for such players when making rankings? Curious how much of a factor it is for dynasty owners -- maybe some feel it's too hard to predict?

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert

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Re: What's the value of durability?

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:29 am

I think like any factor its a factor to consider - but that needs context. If a guy is a regular 3-40-0 type WR then I don't care that he's very durable because (a) his production is replaceable on a weekly basis and (b) he is likely on my bench.

So the lower you go in rankings, the less of a factor I think it is likely to be for many owners.

Then you have guys who appear durable, because they play every game, but seem to miss large portions of said game - either by not having snaps, or by needing to recuperate (see Matt Breida thread). Again it does not really matter much if they play all 16 games, if they are not a factor (fantasy or otherwise) for said games.

Context becomes very important when considering a factor like durability. Allen Robinson had an ACL tear in 2017 - which as we know can happen to almost any player - and while the return time & rate from ACLs is much safer than it once was - it is still to be expected that players are not going to be 100% back to their full selves 1 year later. So a year where ARob is beset by minor injuries a year after an ACL is not a red flag for me.

People were really concerned about Keenan Allen after 2016 - and now he's had back to back full seasons.

I think durability comes mainly in play when deciding between 2 elite players. So if someone decides on Hopkins over Beckham due to durability then I do not have any issue. Ironically enough a couple of years ago Hopkins had concussion concerns while Beckham was playing 3 straight full seasons.

But like any factor, you need to consider it carefully & use discretion. No 2 situations are the same.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: What's the value of durability?

Postby moishetreats » Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:01 am

The question for me comes down to how you're measuring production: by season stats or points-per-game.

If Player A and player B both end up with 80 catches for 1,100 yards and 10 TDs but one players plays 16 games each year and the other 13, then you have a real decision to make.

Player A will put up lesser stats every game but you know that he'll be available every week -- including the fantasy playoffs!

Player B will put up better weekly stats, but you have to wonder if he'll be available when you need him -- or need him the most.

On the other hand, if both Player A and Player B put up similar points-per-game, then clearly the more durable one is more valuable.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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Re: What's the value of durability?

Postby kamihamster » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:10 am

moishetreats wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:01 am The question for me comes down to how you're measuring production: by season stats or points-per-game.

If Player A and player B both end up with 80 catches for 1,100 yards and 10 TDs but one players plays 16 games each year and the other 13, then you have a real decision to make.

Player A will put up lesser stats every game but you know that he'll be available every week -- including the fantasy playoffs!

Player B will put up better weekly stats, but you have to wonder if he'll be available when you need him -- or need him the most.

On the other hand, if both Player A and Player B put up similar points-per-game, then clearly the more durable one is more valuable.
I look at it this way, but add in the production of my next man up. So taking the bolded example, For those 3 games, I insert the production of a bench player because it's not like you're starting no one, you will start someone they just likely won't produce as much. I then sort by avg points per game (including the replacement production of my projected bench player) and rank them. I then compare my avg point per game ranking versus ADP and that's how i try to find value at the position.
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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moishetreats
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Re: What's the value of durability?

Postby moishetreats » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:17 am

kamihamster wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:10 am
moishetreats wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:01 am The question for me comes down to how you're measuring production: by season stats or points-per-game.

If Player A and player B both end up with 80 catches for 1,100 yards and 10 TDs but one players plays 16 games each year and the other 13, then you have a real decision to make.

Player A will put up lesser stats every game but you know that he'll be available every week -- including the fantasy playoffs!

Player B will put up better weekly stats, but you have to wonder if he'll be available when you need him -- or need him the most.

On the other hand, if both Player A and Player B put up similar points-per-game, then clearly the more durable one is more valuable.
I look at it this way, but add in the production of my next man up. So taking the bolded example, For those 3 games, I insert the production of a bench player because it's not like you're starting no one, you will start someone they just likely won't produce as much. I then sort by avg points per game (including the replacement production of my projected bench player) and rank them. I then compare my avg point per game ranking versus ADP and that's how i try to find value at the position.
Agreed. You then have to also consider the impact that having Player B has on your bench: you need a far-better-than-average bench player or two at that position so that the drop-off when Player B doesn't play isn't as pronounced. That takes extra capital to acquire.

But, you're right that you're not getting a zero on the weeks that Player B misses.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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Re: What's the value of durability?

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:31 am

4 dollars.
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Re: What's the value of durability?

Postby kamihamster » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:49 am

moishetreats wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:17 am
kamihamster wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:10 am
moishetreats wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:01 am The question for me comes down to how you're measuring production: by season stats or points-per-game.

If Player A and player B both end up with 80 catches for 1,100 yards and 10 TDs but one players plays 16 games each year and the other 13, then you have a real decision to make.

Player A will put up lesser stats every game but you know that he'll be available every week -- including the fantasy playoffs!

Player B will put up better weekly stats, but you have to wonder if he'll be available when you need him -- or need him the most.

On the other hand, if both Player A and Player B put up similar points-per-game, then clearly the more durable one is more valuable.
I look at it this way, but add in the production of my next man up. So taking the bolded example, For those 3 games, I insert the production of a bench player because it's not like you're starting no one, you will start someone they just likely won't produce as much. I then sort by avg points per game (including the replacement production of my projected bench player) and rank them. I then compare my avg point per game ranking versus ADP and that's how i try to find value at the position.
Agreed. You then have to also consider the impact that having Player B has on your bench: you need a far-better-than-average bench player or two at that position so that the drop-off when Player B doesn't play isn't as pronounced. That takes extra capital to acquire.

But, you're right that you're not getting a zero on the weeks that Player B misses.
Yes. If you have a good bench, then durability isn't as valuable to you. If your bench stinks it's very valuable to you. From a league perspective it's impossible to gauge but for your specific team it is depended on how good your bench is.
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: What's the value of durability?

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:00 pm

I don't follow the thought process of same points over different amount of games played. The more PPG, the better and that player is more valuable (if we are talking about only missing a few games a year) If someone is less durable and has similar PPG, then obviously they aren't as valuable...

I don't usually touch guys like Watkins who are always injured. However a guy like Diggs who misses a few games a year, but puts up much more PPG than others, still holds more valuable than a durable guy like Landry. Cooks and Diggs are viewed closely for example and Cooks durability could easily be someone's tiebreaker.

Just my 2 cents... I usually don't add value for durability, but subtract for oft injured players. Everyone is going to get banged up from time to time.

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Re: What's the value of durability?

Postby Pullo Vision » Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:01 pm

The deeper the league, the more I care about durability. Short benches mean I can find/buy productive players easily.

Also, individual league dynamics can be a factor. In one league I'm in, RBs have high value because of the starting requirements. In another, WRs are hard to get because of a few hoarders. I've read here of a 1 QB league where QBs somehow have crazy high values. Each of those would affect whether I aim for the more durable guy.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def


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