How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
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How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
So how predictable is a rookie draft in June?
The 2019 rookie draft for DLF Premium League will commence tomorrow. This is a 16 team single QB league with PPR (QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 Flex). Everything else is vanilla. More details can be found using the league link in my sig block, but to be honest, you can just wait a few days, and I'll post results further below.
I would like to submit the hypothesis that the 1st round of this draft will be extremely predictable. How predictable? Well, I would say that on average each player will be picked within 1.25 slots of where he is ranked at right now (using Mizelle's May ADP rookie rankings, which can be found here: http://www.mizelle.net/mfl/2019/):
1. Josh Jacobs
2. N'Keal Harry
3. Miles Sanders
4. David Montgomery
5. D.K. Metcalf
6. A.J. Brown
7. Hakeem Butler
8. Parris Campbell
9. Deebo Samuel
10. TJ Hockenson
11. Noah Fant
12. JJAW
13. Mecole Hardman
14. Darrell Henderson
15. Marqise Brown
16. Andy Isabella
So to be clear, my hypothesis is that if we add up the total variances and then divide that number by 16, the product will be less than 1.25. By way of example, let's say that Josh Jacobs would go at 1.05 and DK Metcalf would go at 1.01, then that would be a total variance of 8, as each guy moved 4 slots. And if we divided that by 2, we would get an average variance of 4. Got it.
I'm no statistician, so no idea what this concept is called. But it's pretty str8 fwd unless you've been drinking a lot.
The 2019 rookie draft for DLF Premium League will commence tomorrow. This is a 16 team single QB league with PPR (QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 Flex). Everything else is vanilla. More details can be found using the league link in my sig block, but to be honest, you can just wait a few days, and I'll post results further below.
I would like to submit the hypothesis that the 1st round of this draft will be extremely predictable. How predictable? Well, I would say that on average each player will be picked within 1.25 slots of where he is ranked at right now (using Mizelle's May ADP rookie rankings, which can be found here: http://www.mizelle.net/mfl/2019/):
1. Josh Jacobs
2. N'Keal Harry
3. Miles Sanders
4. David Montgomery
5. D.K. Metcalf
6. A.J. Brown
7. Hakeem Butler
8. Parris Campbell
9. Deebo Samuel
10. TJ Hockenson
11. Noah Fant
12. JJAW
13. Mecole Hardman
14. Darrell Henderson
15. Marqise Brown
16. Andy Isabella
So to be clear, my hypothesis is that if we add up the total variances and then divide that number by 16, the product will be less than 1.25. By way of example, let's say that Josh Jacobs would go at 1.05 and DK Metcalf would go at 1.01, then that would be a total variance of 8, as each guy moved 4 slots. And if we divided that by 2, we would get an average variance of 4. Got it.
I'm no statistician, so no idea what this concept is called. But it's pretty str8 fwd unless you've been drinking a lot.
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Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
I think the majority of rookie drafts are predictable as most people dont think for themselves. There only needs to be one guy, yes, but if the "experts" and boards like this all decided to do a crazy experiment next year like, "in secret let's all pump up some no name as the consensus #1 and stick to it". You bet your azz most drafts would take him numero uno. More so in June since preseason has not happened yet.
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12 Team 1PPR 1QB/1-3RB/1-3 WR/1TE/1DST
QB:Brady
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, Mack, Etienne
WR: Nuk, Thielen, Cooks, Diontae, Pittman, Gallup
TE: Henry
12 Team 1PPR 1QB/1-3RB/1-3 WR/1TE/1DST
QB:Brady
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, Mack, Etienne
WR: Nuk, Thielen, Cooks, Diontae, Pittman, Gallup
TE: Henry
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Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
It's crazy how if you take a player a few spots too early you're really REACHING. Even within your variance (say 4). OMG he took Henderson at #6 instead of #10, what a reach for a handcuff. Then Gurley misses half the year, and BOOM, that guy's a genius.
What's funny is I think Henderson is REALLY low on here, and you don't even mention Singletary.
What's funny is I think Henderson is REALLY low on here, and you don't even mention Singletary.
D3:
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Harrison, TILLMAN, Marshall, Jefferson TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington KRAFT PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC RB—BIJAN, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, HULL, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Diggs, Adams, Allen, TILLMAN, Boyd, Woods, HUTCHINSON, DOUGLAS TE—Kelce, Kmet, Schultz, Parham PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, Howell RB—BIJAN, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, HULL, GRAY WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, Myers, Hardman, Reynolds BOUTTE TE—Kmet, Smith, Hurst, Ertz, KRAFT PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: BIJAN, BRob, ZWhite, Hines, TDP, McLaughlin WR: Higgins, JSN, JWilliams, DJM, RMoore, DOWNS, Atwell, TILLMAN, BOUTTE, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, CJONES TE: Trautman, Ferguson, KRAFT, Hooper
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Harrison, TILLMAN, Marshall, Jefferson TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington KRAFT PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC RB—BIJAN, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, HULL, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Diggs, Adams, Allen, TILLMAN, Boyd, Woods, HUTCHINSON, DOUGLAS TE—Kelce, Kmet, Schultz, Parham PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, Howell RB—BIJAN, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, HULL, GRAY WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, Myers, Hardman, Reynolds BOUTTE TE—Kmet, Smith, Hurst, Ertz, KRAFT PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: BIJAN, BRob, ZWhite, Hines, TDP, McLaughlin WR: Higgins, JSN, JWilliams, DJM, RMoore, DOWNS, Atwell, TILLMAN, BOUTTE, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, CJONES TE: Trautman, Ferguson, KRAFT, Hooper
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Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
While there's always one or two reaches, so many guys go at a specific spot or within 1 slot. So I'm pretty confident the average variance won't be above 1.5.
Now to be fair, I do own 1.01, 1.06, 1.11 and 1.13. However, this thread won't influence my picks 1%...
We can also refer to the DLF Hall of Famers rookie draft, which is a copy league of DLF Premuim League and holds their draft same time.
Now to be fair, I do own 1.01, 1.06, 1.11 and 1.13. However, this thread won't influence my picks 1%...
We can also refer to the DLF Hall of Famers rookie draft, which is a copy league of DLF Premuim League and holds their draft same time.
Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
I do think that having more rookie drafts, in the rear view mirror, does make it easier for owners to have a better idea where to take their guys - and thus decreases the potential variance. We are seeing with guys like Henderson, that their ADP continues to climb, so there will still be variance, as some owners will continue to 'reach' a little early to ensure they draft their target player rather than risk missing out at their next draft pick - or perhaps overpay to move up from the next pick.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
Just takes 1 or 2 surprise picks to change everything up. One of my leagues (12 team 1QB) Kyler went 4th overall and Sanders fell to 6. My friend is in a league Henderson went 1.04. All 8 of my leagues that have drafted so far the Iowa TEs both went between 6th and 12th overall, but drafts reported here have seen them fall to the mid 2nd in some leagues. Mecole Hardman is a huge wildcard in drafts, he's going anywhere from mid 1st to late 2nd. So it all depends on your league.
Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
This is a pretty wacky year for rookie drafts. I’d wager the variance will be much higher than 1.25.
Also, how are you going to treat guys outside the Mizelle top 16? Would you just automatically count them as #17 or will you go by their actual ranking? For example, if Justice Hill (Mizelle #20) goes at 1.16, would you count that as a 1 or a 4?
Look forward to seeing the results.
Also, how are you going to treat guys outside the Mizelle top 16? Would you just automatically count them as #17 or will you go by their actual ranking? For example, if Justice Hill (Mizelle #20) goes at 1.16, would you count that as a 1 or a 4?
Look forward to seeing the results.
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QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer
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$450 cap, 60 contract years
QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0
🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer
Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years
QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0
Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
i would not "plan" on your draft going in any order this year. some combo of Jacobs, harry, monty, sanders are the top 4 and then a crap shoot from my experiences.
I think its a really important year to stick to your rankings and if a guy you like falls....you take him or move up to grab him. looking at rankings in a tier of 20 is pointless imo..which you only listed 16,but im sure we could throw a few names in there and get a monster tier of players.
I think its a really important year to stick to your rankings and if a guy you like falls....you take him or move up to grab him. looking at rankings in a tier of 20 is pointless imo..which you only listed 16,but im sure we could throw a few names in there and get a monster tier of players.
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Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
I also think players will be outside of this variance. I mean, look at the ADP for players across MFL:
# Pick Player Average Minimum Maximum Total
1. 1.01 Jacobs, Josh OAK RB 1.54 1 4 125
2. 1.02 Harry, N'Keal NEP WR 3.21 1 9 117
3. 1.03 Montgomery, David CHI RB 4.49 2 15 118
4. 1.04 Sanders, Miles PHI RB 4.87 2 13 122
5. 1.05 Metcalf, DK SEA WR 7.21 2 21 119
6. 1.06 Murray, Kyler ARI QB 7.25 1 23 124
7. 1.07 Hockenson, T.J. DET TE 7.87 2 24 125
8. 1.08 Brown, A.J. TEN WR 10.07 4 24 117
9. 1.09 Campbell, Parris IND WR 11.03 4 28 123
10. 1.10 Fant, Noah DEN TE 11.08 3 26 121
Even Monty has gone as low at 15. Wow. Metcalf as low as 21. Fant as low at 26. Those are crazy. I wonder if they were in superflex or 2 QB leagues or something. But that's a HUGE range.
# Pick Player Average Minimum Maximum Total
1. 1.01 Jacobs, Josh OAK RB 1.54 1 4 125
2. 1.02 Harry, N'Keal NEP WR 3.21 1 9 117
3. 1.03 Montgomery, David CHI RB 4.49 2 15 118
4. 1.04 Sanders, Miles PHI RB 4.87 2 13 122
5. 1.05 Metcalf, DK SEA WR 7.21 2 21 119
6. 1.06 Murray, Kyler ARI QB 7.25 1 23 124
7. 1.07 Hockenson, T.J. DET TE 7.87 2 24 125
8. 1.08 Brown, A.J. TEN WR 10.07 4 24 117
9. 1.09 Campbell, Parris IND WR 11.03 4 28 123
10. 1.10 Fant, Noah DEN TE 11.08 3 26 121
Even Monty has gone as low at 15. Wow. Metcalf as low as 21. Fant as low at 26. Those are crazy. I wonder if they were in superflex or 2 QB leagues or something. But that's a HUGE range.
D3:
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Harrison, TILLMAN, Marshall, Jefferson TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington KRAFT PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC RB—BIJAN, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, HULL, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Diggs, Adams, Allen, TILLMAN, Boyd, Woods, HUTCHINSON, DOUGLAS TE—Kelce, Kmet, Schultz, Parham PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, Howell RB—BIJAN, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, HULL, GRAY WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, Myers, Hardman, Reynolds BOUTTE TE—Kmet, Smith, Hurst, Ertz, KRAFT PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: BIJAN, BRob, ZWhite, Hines, TDP, McLaughlin WR: Higgins, JSN, JWilliams, DJM, RMoore, DOWNS, Atwell, TILLMAN, BOUTTE, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, CJONES TE: Trautman, Ferguson, KRAFT, Hooper
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Harrison, TILLMAN, Marshall, Jefferson TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington KRAFT PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC RB—BIJAN, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, HULL, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Diggs, Adams, Allen, TILLMAN, Boyd, Woods, HUTCHINSON, DOUGLAS TE—Kelce, Kmet, Schultz, Parham PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, Howell RB—BIJAN, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, HULL, GRAY WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, Myers, Hardman, Reynolds BOUTTE TE—Kmet, Smith, Hurst, Ertz, KRAFT PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: BIJAN, BRob, ZWhite, Hines, TDP, McLaughlin WR: Higgins, JSN, JWilliams, DJM, RMoore, DOWNS, Atwell, TILLMAN, BOUTTE, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, CJONES TE: Trautman, Ferguson, KRAFT, Hooper
Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
Yeah superflex, IDP, etc throw those numbers off when you group all leagues togetherwickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:48 am I also think players will be outside of this variance. I mean, look at the ADP for players across MFL:
# Pick Player Average Minimum Maximum Total
1. 1.01 Jacobs, Josh OAK RB 1.54 1 4 125
2. 1.02 Harry, N'Keal NEP WR 3.21 1 9 117
3. 1.03 Montgomery, David CHI RB 4.49 2 15 118
4. 1.04 Sanders, Miles PHI RB 4.87 2 13 122
5. 1.05 Metcalf, DK SEA WR 7.21 2 21 119
6. 1.06 Murray, Kyler ARI QB 7.25 1 23 124
7. 1.07 Hockenson, T.J. DET TE 7.87 2 24 125
8. 1.08 Brown, A.J. TEN WR 10.07 4 24 117
9. 1.09 Campbell, Parris IND WR 11.03 4 28 123
10. 1.10 Fant, Noah DEN TE 11.08 3 26 121
Even Monty has gone as low at 15. Wow. Metcalf as low as 21. Fant as low at 26. Those are crazy. I wonder if they were in superflex or 2 QB leagues or something. But that's a HUGE range.
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Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
Variance of 0.00 thru first 3 picks.
And yes, different leagues, leagues with early drafts and leagues with neophytes will see greater variances.
And yes, different leagues, leagues with early drafts and leagues with neophytes will see greater variances.
Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
I haven't done any draft that are straight offense single qb like that but even if we ignore idp and qb picks I would doubt the variance from that list is as small as 1.25. That is only 20 total spots of variance, in one league justice hill went 1.08 with 2 QBs off the board, that is over half of the allowed variance right there. Hardman is also a huge variance. I have seen butler fall to I think the 29th pick, granted with some idps and 4 QBs ahead but still he was probably at least the 20th skill position guy
4th and long: ppr, 10 team, qb, rb, rb, wr, wr, wr, flex, flex, te, k, dl, dl, lb, lb, db, db, dflex, dflex
QB: Kirk Cousins Tyrod Taylor, Jared Goff
RB: Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliot, Theo Riddick, D'Onta Foreman, James Conner, Jamal Williams
WR: Alshon Jeffrey, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Cole Beasley, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis, Breshad Perriman, Eli Rogers
TE: Eric Ebron, , David Njoku, Jack Doyle
K: Will Lutz
DL: Frank Clark, Danielle Hunter
LB: Luke Kuechley, Bobby Wagner, Jordan Hicks, Mark Barron, Darron Lee
DB: Sean Davis, Morgan Burnett,
IR: Clayton Geathers, Quincy Enunwa, Raekwon McMillan
QB: Kirk Cousins Tyrod Taylor, Jared Goff
RB: Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliot, Theo Riddick, D'Onta Foreman, James Conner, Jamal Williams
WR: Alshon Jeffrey, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Cole Beasley, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis, Breshad Perriman, Eli Rogers
TE: Eric Ebron, , David Njoku, Jack Doyle
K: Will Lutz
DL: Frank Clark, Danielle Hunter
LB: Luke Kuechley, Bobby Wagner, Jordan Hicks, Mark Barron, Darron Lee
DB: Sean Davis, Morgan Burnett,
IR: Clayton Geathers, Quincy Enunwa, Raekwon McMillan
Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
This. I basically see almost a full round of players that could go at any point and I don't really have a problem with it. Others may. However, I see this cluster of players that some are high on and low on others and vice versa.M-Dub wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2019 11:08 pm This is a pretty wacky year for rookie drafts. I’d wager the variance will be much higher than 1.25.
Also, how are you going to treat guys outside the Mizelle top 16? Would you just automatically count them as #17 or will you go by their actual ranking? For example, if Justice Hill (Mizelle #20) goes at 1.16, would you count that as a 1 or a 4?
Look forward to seeing the results.
I'd wager the variance is higher in this class that normal.
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Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
0.00 thru 1.04. And I suspect the trend will continue.
Re: How predictable is a rookie draft in June?
Looks like you got the wrong Brown at 1.06. Close enough though.
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