Am I thinking too much on OBJ?

[pvillebiker]

In a 12TM PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 3FLX, 1TE league I just traded for Odell - wasn't cheap but I feel good about it still!

A. Jones, DJ Moore, TJ Hockenson for Odell and Duke

uhhh that's pretty cheap. as cheap as I've seen OBJ go recently even for a dillution trade.

Lots of maybe's for OBJ. Maybe Jones gets the opportunity to be featured and runs with it. Maybe Cam can get the ball to Moore more than last year. Maybe Hock develops in next few years.

[FantasyFreak]

I always have a concern about a productive player going to a new team. More often than not, they seem to have a production drop. There are just so many factors. I personally lowered my value on OBJ a little to account for this new risk.

if you're used to catch eli's balls, changing teams can only be good for you shirley?

I would agree, and please don't call me Shirley.

Also, WRs who changed to a new team and perhaps improved:
Randy Moss (Raiders to Patriots)
Wes Welker (Dolphins to Patriots)
Emmanuel Sanders (Steelers to Broncos)
Golden Tate (Seahawks to Lions)
maybe Amari Cooper (Raiders to Cowboys)
Brandon Marshall (Dolphins to Bears)

Just off the top of my head. I'm sure for every WR I name someone could name 4-5 that did not improve. The key is to find any common variables to try to make a hypothesis. All of these WRs are Pro-Bowl caliber, and the QBs they changed to are easily above average during their careers. I think OBJ & Mayfield fit the mold of the situations mentioned above.

LOL. Love that old flic.

[killer_of_giants]

if you're used to catch eli's balls, changing teams can only be good for you shirley?

I would agree, and please don't call me Shirley.

[ebsteelers]

probably overthinking but roster construction, roster limits matters.

if its deep bench and deep starters and you can get 3 or 4 starters for him then sure.


but the 2 leagues I have him are 16 and 20 roster spots, so for me I am keeping unless I got a stud in return, but is anyone giving up nuk for him? or how about juju plus?

[Vcize]

Over thinking but Baker spreading it around worries me the most. OBJ will still get his

There was another QB who was (even more) known for spreading the ball around who got a truly elite WR. Their names were Tom Brady and Randy Moss.

That is OBJ's upside in Cleveland.

[kmbryant09]

So I looked into Baker's stats a bit...After Hue was fired (looking at the last 8 games of the season), Mayfield's 16-game pace statline was 360/526, 4500 yards and 38:16 TD:INT ratio.

I'm going to bump those numbers up by 10% to account for Year 2 Growth from Baker, and the team's signals that they will emphasize the passing game (hiring Freddie Kitchins, bringing in Monken and his pass-heavy philosophy, and trading for OBJ). That would give him the following season: 400/580, 4950 yards and 42:18 ratio.

Assuming he's healthy, I can't imagine OBJ commanding less than 20% of those targets - that's a conservative estimate. That would give OBJ a floor of about 75 / 1,050 / 8 - that's assuming OBJ's career catch rate, ypc, and TD %.

Now, let's do a more realistic assessment and bump up OBJ's efficiency a bit to account for the QB upgrade. Let's assume a 25% target share, and Baker's career completion %. That gives Beckham a realistic baseline of 100 (on 145 targets) / 1,350 / 11.

Bottom line - don't worry about Baker spreading the ball around too much.

[FantasyFreak]

Over thinking but Baker spreading it around worries me the most. OBJ will still get his

There was another QB who was (even more) known for spreading the ball around who got a truly elite WR. Their names were Tom Brady and Randy Moss.

That is OBJ's upside in Cleveland.

Not quite, IMO. Not the TD's, anyway. He's not scoring 23 TD's receiving, but OBJ will probably get back to his first few years on the stat sheet, with almost 100 yards a game, and double digit TD's.

[jomaed]

In a 12TM PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 3FLX, 1TE league I just traded for Odell - wasn't cheap but I feel good about it still!

A. Jones, DJ Moore, TJ Hockenson for Odell and Duke

Wasn't cheap???? Seems about as cheap as it gets.

[Smoking Guns]

OBJ is fixing to play for the best QB he has had. Give it time .

[moishetreats]

So I have always been a fan of OBJ and think that he is up there with Hopkins as WR1 in dynasty, but lately some things I have been pointing to maybe sell high on him right now. Some reasons are because of his injury history, WR w/ new team, and even though small sample size Baker spreads his targets everywhere on the field. What are your thoughts on him. Would you sell him with the browns hype right now or love to have him?

I don't think you're over-thinking it. I think that you're thinking.

You've identified possible red flags. Yes, every player has them, especially if you dig too deep. And you have determined that some of these flags might have merit. That doesn't mean that OBJ is going to bust. What it DOES mean, though, is that OBJ is likely valued higher by others than he is by you.

If that's the case, then I would absolutely look to move him -- at someone else's full value. In that case, you're given better value than you think that OBJ is worth and don't have to run the risk of you being correct. Obviously, you're not moving him for below value just to be rid of him.

All that being said, for what it's worth, I'm with you on all the concerns with OBJ. Indeed, for Team 2 in sig, I have purposefully traded (indeed, perhaps overpaid) for Smith-Schuster and for Cooper because OBJ headlines the crop of free agent WRs, and I don't want to have to pay for him what the market is likely to dictate.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Brandin Cooks has changed teams with arguably a small decrease in QB level of play 2 straight years with pretty much no affect. I like Cooks, but he's no OBJ, and OBJ is clearly getting a step up in QB. I think you're overthinking it.

[Vcize]

I always have a concern about a productive player going to a new team. More often than not, they seem to have a production drop. There are just so many factors. I personally lowered my value on OBJ a little to account for this new risk.

if you're used to catch eli's balls, changing teams can only be good for you shirley?

That's sound logic. There was a discussion on this forum last year, or maybe two years ago, where we listed all the elite players that changed teams and the vast majority had less production, even though there were no obvious reasons as to why.

Who were these players? I'm guessing that the definition of "elite" was stretched to players a lot less elite than OBJ.

When I think of truly ELITE players that have changed teams in their prime I think of guys like Terrell Owens (many times), Randy Moss (one time bad, one time really really good), Clinton Portis, Shady McCoy.

DeMarco Murray and Brandon Marshall are kind of on the cusp of that elite territory as well, but of course everyone knew that Murray's team change was a major downgrade in situation.

I'm sure I'm missing a ton, but I'm having trouble coming up with many more names of guys who were truly elite (I'm talking top 5 player at their position) and still in their prime that changed teams.

[ArrylT]

Yeah the 1st year of a player in a new system is always going to be a potential for regression - but Beckham is young enough and proven enough that even if he has a low end WR1 season this year, his connection to Mayfield could easily warrant a return to high end WR1 status as early as 2020.