Am I thinking too much on OBJ?

[BHerm24]

So I have always been a fan of OBJ and think that he is up there with Hopkins as WR1 in dynasty, but lately some things I have been pointing to maybe sell high on him right now. Some reasons are because of his injury history, WR w/ new team, and even though small sample size Baker spreads his targets everywhere on the field. What are your thoughts on him. Would you sell him with the browns hype right now or love to have him?

[Phaded]

I just bought him in one league and traded up in a startup of another to draft him.

I think you are overthinking it.

[Jigga94]

Over thinking but Baker spreading it around worries me the most. OBJ will still get his

[MEuRaH]

I think you are overthinking it.

Agreed. Anything can be said about any player in the league to make you second-guess yourself.

Barkley KILLED it last year. No OBJ = teams will stack the box more, Barkley's value will decline.

Jared Cook got signed to New Orleans, and Brees LOVES his tight ends, so Michael Thomas will have a reduction in work load.

Cam Newton's injury means teams will be able to put more emphasis on stopping the running game.

See?

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Two words:

Mayfield.
Monken.

Zero concerns about Beckham. I have him as my dynasty WR2 ever so slightly behind Hopkins.

[Pac_Eddy]

I always have a concern about a productive player going to a new team. More often than not, they seem to have a production drop. There are just so many factors. I personally lowered my value on OBJ a little to account for this new risk.

[killer_of_giants]

I always have a concern about a productive player going to a new team. More often than not, they seem to have a production drop. There are just so many factors. I personally lowered my value on OBJ a little to account for this new risk.

if you're used to catch eli's balls, changing teams can only be good for you shirley?

[honcho55]

Depends what the offer is.

[Pac_Eddy]

I always have a concern about a productive player going to a new team. More often than not, they seem to have a production drop. There are just so many factors. I personally lowered my value on OBJ a little to account for this new risk.

if you're used to catch eli's balls, changing teams can only be good for you shirley?

That's sound logic. There was a discussion on this forum last year, or maybe two years ago, where we listed all the elite players that changed teams and the vast majority had less production, even though there were no obvious reasons as to why.

[djeternal2]

That's sound logic. There was a discussion on this forum last year, or maybe two years ago, where we listed all the elite players that changed teams and the vast majority had less production, even though there were no obvious reasons as to why.

Well the obvious reason to me would be having to learn a new playbook and develop chemistry with the QB.

[Phaded]

I always have a concern about a productive player going to a new team. More often than not, they seem to have a production drop. There are just so many factors. I personally lowered my value on OBJ a little to account for this new risk.

I think the big argument for this is there is not much precedent for a player of OBJ's level switching teams - and I am not sure about the "more often than not" statement you are implying. A lot of the ones that come to mind were just as productive.

[FantasyFreak]

Trade him if you can get value, like any other player. OBJ has an injury history and is a bit of a head case. If you can get Hopkins straight up, or a guy like Juju plus (I actually have Juju ranked higher), or another player of similar value plus another piece, do it. If not, don't.

[MEuRaH]

I always have a concern about a productive player going to a new team. More often than not, they seem to have a production drop. There are just so many factors. I personally lowered my value on OBJ a little to account for this new risk.

if you're used to catch eli's balls, changing teams can only be good for you shirley?

I would agree, and please don't call me Shirley.

Also, WRs who changed to a new team and perhaps improved:
Randy Moss (Raiders to Patriots)
Wes Welker (Dolphins to Patriots)
Emmanuel Sanders (Steelers to Broncos)
Golden Tate (Seahawks to Lions)
maybe Amari Cooper (Raiders to Cowboys)
Brandon Marshall (Dolphins to Bears)

Just off the top of my head. I'm sure for every WR I name someone could name 4-5 that did not improve. The key is to find any common variables to try to make a hypothesis. All of these WRs are Pro-Bowl caliber, and the QBs they changed to are easily above average during their careers. I think OBJ & Mayfield fit the mold of the situations mentioned above.

[Pac_Eddy]

I always have a concern about a productive player going to a new team. More often than not, they seem to have a production drop. There are just so many factors. I personally lowered my value on OBJ a little to account for this new risk.

I think the big argument for this is there is not much precedent for a player of OBJ's level switching teams - and I am not sure about the "more often than not" statement you are implying. A lot of the ones that come to mind were just as productive.

No, there weren't hundreds of samples. It was more like 20 or 30. But yes, more often than not, production declined. I'd bet against better seasons from Leveon Bell, OBJ, Ingram, and Antonio Brown. One of those might be a new Amari Cooper and do better, but odds are not good.

[shanetessmer]

In a 12TM PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 3FLX, 1TE league I just traded for Odell - wasn't cheap but I feel good about it still!

A. Jones, DJ Moore, TJ Hockenson for Odell and Duke