Darrell Henderson

[mgscott]

It's not as much information as I would like to have, but I think the info we do have is quite telling. Sure I would love to see an x-ray, MRI, or CT. But we do know his injury history, we know that arthritis commonly occurs after those injuries. We've heard that he is dealing with arthritis confirming what we know. Now I jump to my knowledge about arthritis and that diseases progression. I make a strong take, probably because he's a high caliber player there's more skeptics than if he were Trajae Sharpe. The fantasy community is knocking Gurley down and raising Henderson, the price is baking in, but it's not fully there if my working theory is true. Only time or more information will tell. If I'm right then you're making moves ahead of the curve and will stand to benefit. Or I'm wrong and you sold an aging RB for decent value but not peak value, or bought depth guys too high. Since this thread is about Henderson particularly, I still believe he has value even if Gurley is healthy. They have already said they are going to limit his touches so some of those will go to Henderson. I see Henderson as having a role with and without Gurley. Brown I see more of a backup to Gurley.

i broadly agree, but this is a bit different than saying "he's past the point of no return"!

I make two jumps in my reasoning.

1) He has arthritis - unknown source. Is it a big jump? Not really, we know that arthritis develops after traumatic knee injury such as torn ACL which he has had. Nothing has come out about a strain, sprain, or other soft tissue injury. I'm 99% sure he has arthritis the severity is the next leap.

2) The severity of his arthritis is career threatening. I make this based off his usage in the Super Bowl. This is a huge leap to make. But go back to what I presented about the progression of arthritis, it doesn't get better. You can slow it down, you can treat the symptoms, but it will progress. There are no drugs or treatments out there that can reverse the disease. Gurley was typically playing around around 90% of the snaps during the season, in the post season he was between 46-64% that's a big step down. At this point it's about how much pain can he handle. If things don't get better with this disease, I dont see him getting back to that 90% rate, and how much longer can he endure the lower percentage of snaps before the disease progresses even more? Typically as the disease gets worse, it gets worse faster. This is due to your adaptive immune system generating more antibodies to the antigen. I'll leave it there an wont make any more conclusions but let you decide.

While you are making some very sound points and good reasons to expect Gurley's knee or knees to be damaged and eventually career threatening, you are describing Rheumatoid arthritis in your arguments. Which I doubt Gurley has and is a much more severe form of arthritis. The fact that he was not able to play the majority of the snaps and be effective in the Super Bowl is concerning and his absence from off-season workouts adds to that.

[themburns]

The Rams insisted there was no injury with Gurley to the point of not putting him on the injury report during the playoffs. Dr. Chao on Twitter notes that NFL teams are not required to disclose underlying conditions (i.e. arthritis) on the injury report, so I don't expect the team to confirm or deny that anytime soon.

When Todd Gurley was asked by a reporter last month if he had a degenerative knee condition or arthritis, he said: "I mean, all I can focus on is how I'm doing right now," Gurley said. "Feeling pretty good, like I said, taking it day by day and just trying to get better, get ready for the next season." (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2653 ... retty-good)

He had an easy chance to clear the air that was glossed over. I would imagine Gurley has financial incentives to dispel baseless health rumors, red flag for sure. It's more of a matter of rate of decline at this point rather than a question of is there some kind of permanent damage.

[FantasyFreak]

The Rams insisted there was no injury with Gurley to the point of not putting him on the injury report during the playoffs. Dr. Chao on Twitter notes that NFL teams are not required to disclose underlying conditions (i.e. arthritis) on the injury report, so I don't expect the team to confirm or deny that anytime soon.

When Todd Gurley was asked by a reporter last month if he had a degenerative knee condition or arthritis, he said: "I mean, all I can focus on is how I'm doing right now," Gurley said. "Feeling pretty good, like I said, taking it day by day and just trying to get better, get ready for the next season." (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2653 ... retty-good)

He had an easy chance to clear the air that was glossed over. I would imagine Gurley has financial incentives to dispel baseless health rumors, red flag for sure. It's more of a matter of rate of decline at this point rather than a question of is there some kind of permanent damage.

Reggie Bush discussed this, and basically said it was down to Gurley's pain tolerance. He said all NFL players are dealing with some form of arthritis. When he had microfracture surgery after his 3rd year, he said they were saying he'd only play another 2-3 years, and he ended up playing 7. There is really no way to tell. The Rams are going to do everything that money can buy, and put together a training program to ensure he gets the best chance he can to continue to play at a high level with minimal issues. According to Matt Waldman, he though a hit Gurley took to his knee vs the Chiefs late in the year was the turning point, he said Gurley never looked the same after it. All his opinion of course. This was the first time Gurley played so many game in a year, and it's clear he could not handle the extra games, so I fully expect a slight regression in his touches throughout the year, which will affect his Fantasy output negatively. The Rams are planning on 18-19 games ideally, while we in this community don't care beyond week 16.

[Cult of Dionysus]

I'm only trying to make hypothesis based off the information we have to project his fantasy production, take it as that.

nothing wrong with that of course, i just think you draw strong conclusions from weak bases.

It's not as much information as I would like to have, but I think the info we do have is quite telling. Sure I would love to see an x-ray, MRI, or CT. But we do know his injury history, we know that arthritis commonly occurs after those injuries. We've heard that he is dealing with arthritis confirming what we know. Now I jump to my knowledge about arthritis and that diseases progression. I make a strong take, probably because he's a high caliber player there's more skeptics than if he were Trajae Sharpe. The fantasy community is knocking Gurley down and raising Henderson, the price is baking in, but it's not fully there if my working theory is true. Only time or more information will tell. If I'm right then you're making moves ahead of the curve and will stand to benefit. Or I'm wrong and you sold an aging RB for decent value but not peak value, or bought depth guys too high. Since this thread is about Henderson particularly, I still believe he has value even if Gurley is healthy. They have already said they are going to limit his touches so some of those will go to Henderson. I see Henderson as having a role with and without Gurley. Brown I see more of a backup to Gurley.

I woke up with a headache and my temp is in the high 99s, could you please let me know what I should do?

[IBall2]

I'm on team super-mariota's side of this arguement. He's presented plenty of solid evidence for his hypothesis and I've only seen people try to poke holes in his theory but nobody has shown the other side of the argument which points to him being a top 5 fantasy RB again.

[Cameron Giles]

Well considering I don't believe the Rams have even confirmed Gurley has arthritis. So the reasonable conclusions are going off one report from an anonymous source iirc. I've seen plenty of offseason stories from an anonymous source that ended up being not true.

They're not required to confirm detailed/underlying conditions though. They could just keep calling it "knee soreness" forever. I was more optimistic about this earlier in the offseason, but it's starting to sound like Gurley has degenerative knees/arthritis. I don't think he's going to play as sparingly as he did towards the end of last season, but they are definitely going to manage his load. Pain comes and goes and it's really just a matter of personal tolerance.

When you consider that, it makes sense why they moved up for Henderson, whose running style fits the plays they ran a lot last season.

[themburns]

Reggie Bush discussed this, and basically said it was down to Gurley's pain tolerance. He said all NFL players are dealing with some form of arthritis. When he had microfracture surgery after his 3rd year, he said they were saying he'd only play another 2-3 years, and he ended up playing 7. There is really no way to tell. The Rams are going to do everything that money can buy, and put together a training program to ensure he gets the best chance he can to continue to play at a high level with minimal issues. According to Matt Waldman, he though a hit Gurley took to his knee vs the Chiefs late in the year was the turning point, he said Gurley never looked the same after it. All his opinion of course. This was the first time Gurley played so many game in a year, and it's clear he could not handle the extra games, so I fully expect a slight regression in his touches throughout the year, which will affect his Fantasy output negatively. The Rams are planning on 18-19 games ideally, while we in this community don't care beyond week 16.

To the point about Bush's microfracture, it does show that elite players are more often the exception to the rule and we should take that into account as owners, agreed. The odds didn't support that outcome though, and it doesn't feel like very actionable information. As you point out, the Rams are planning on weeks 18-19, and I don't expect their plan to cater to fantasy players. If Gurley loses say, 20% of his carries to Henderson (3.5~ per game), and Henderson takes M. Brown's work, that's a flex worthy option week to week as a rookie.

[kamihamster]

I woke up with a headache and my temp is in the high 99s, could you please let me know what I should do?

You don't play football so I dont care.

[killer_of_giants]

I'm on team super-mariota's side of this arguement. He's presented plenty of solid evidence for his hypothesis and I've only seen people try to poke holes in his theory but nobody has shown the other side of the argument which points to him being a top 5 fantasy RB again.

err... not really...
i don't think he will be. i don't think he's past the point of no return either. not everything is ace or bleep for bleep sake!

I woke up with a headache and my temp is in the high 99s, could you please let me know what I should do?

You don't play football so I dont care.

[Ice]

The Henderson pick should not really concern Gurley owners much. He was selected in the 3rd round so he is pretty inexpensive for the next 4 years and does upgrade the back up position at RB. He is a good player so will get carries and receptions but that would have happened anyway.

Obviously Gurley is a concern but he already was one. Henderson provides insurance but if Gurley is done at some point the Rams will be looking for another RB to actually carry the load.

His value is high to Gurley owners but he isn't an elite back IMO.

If Gurley really is close to the cliff we will know it pretty early. K. Hunt types and a strong draft for RB's is coming next season so overpaying for Henderson may not be wise.

The Rams obviously like the player but it's not like they moved into the first or second round for the player so they got good value if he hits but not a huge loss if he doesn't. The selection says as much about Brown as Gurley I suspect.

Seams like a measured draft selection very good teams make.

[FantasyFreak]

The Henderson pick should not really concern Gurley owners much. He was selected in the 3rd round so he is pretty inexpensive for the next 4 years and does upgrade the back up position at RB. He is a good player so will get carries and receptions but that would have happened anyway.

Obviously Gurley is a concern but he already was one. Henderson provides insurance but if Gurley is done at some point the Rams will be looking for another RB to actually carry the load.

His value is high to Gurley owners but he isn't an elite back IMO.

If Gurley really is close to the cliff we will know it pretty early. K. Hunt types and a strong draft for RB's is coming next season so overpaying for Henderson may not be wise.

The Rams obviously like the player but it's not like they moved into the first or second round for the player so they got good value if he hits but not a huge loss if he doesn't. The selection says as much about Brown as Gurley I suspect.

Seams like a measured draft selection very good teams make.

They clearly need another back in a projected 18 or 19 game outlook, and CJA was not what they wanted for that. I think it was a wise move to gain depth at a position that is a huge part of McVay's plans/schemes etc. CJA was a necessity last year, but not necessarily the best fit. I still expect Gurley to have a workload decrease, but he should be a top 8 back if he stays healthy.

[saw061600]

I woke up with a headache and my temp is in the high 99s, could you please let me know what I should do?

You don't play football so I dont care.

[Jigga94]

I woke up with a headache and my temp is in the high 99s, could you please let me know what I should do?

You don't play football so I dont care.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2019/...- ... -role-knee

NFL Network’s Steve Wyche: “Absolutely not” any medical issues that will diminish Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley in 2019

Some very telling specific language from the Rams via Wyche today.

By 3k@3k_ May 29, 2019, 1:09pm CDT


View: https://twitter.com/wyche89/status/1133 ... 91746?s=20


Per NFL Network’s Steve Wyche:

I was told by the [Los Angeles] Rams that after the season, after the Super Bowl, they came up with an offseason plan [for Rams RB Todd Gurley] that’s basically, “We’re going to do everything we’ve done in previous years except you are not going to be doing football work on the field during OTAs.”

Now I was told by the Rams and Travelle Gaines who trains a lot of NFL players including [New York Giants] running back Saquon Barkley and [Jacksonville Jaguars RB] Leonard Fournette that Gurley is in the Rams facility as [Rams Head Coach Sean] McVay said doing some strength and conditioning work, and then he works with Gaines several days a week doing strength and conditioning and agility work. The one thing that they are not doing is pounding-type drills such as running hills or doing work in the sand dunes of Southern California. Gaines, who has trained Gurley since his second season, said otherwise they’re not doing anything different.

The one change that Todd Gurley is going to make, and this is according to Travelle Gaines in conjunction with the Rams (there’s communication between both), is Todd Gurley’s goal is to play closer to 218 lbs. this season whereas last year he played closer to 224, 225.

They just said by lightening the load a little bit, they’re going to make him a little more agile, maybe make him even a little more dangerous in the passing game.

Gaines also said, “Is there any lingering effect from the ACL injury had when he was at the University of Georgia? Yes. That is common with all athletes, but it is not an every day thing. Now is there anything medical that the Rams or anyone is worrying about that’s going to diminish Todd Gurley? Absolutely not.”

This is simply a maintenance program. Something to take the load off so Todd Gurley can be better later in the season as opposed to maybe not having as much left.

Remember, last year was the most games Todd Gurley ever had to play, or the Rams had to play in Gurley’s tenure.

[Phaded]

Even if there was some big problem with Gurley - they clearly would not outright say it.
Heck, you just have to look back to the playoffs last year to see they were not totally forthcoming.

What else are they going to say about the running back they JUST threw a ton of money at?