You should probably sell George Kittle

[Ice]

Kittle is an interesting debate. I will say the Kittle love is pretty amazing for a player struggling to stay on the field.

Contrary to a few comments, I was the one trying to buy actually, not pretend buy in some hypothetically world. I see his value as a high second. Some of you think that is crazy yet none have said what they would pay or even try to pay for him. I get everyone would like to sell him for 1.1 but that is not even a discussion point even though according to some he is WAY MORE Valuable than a 2nd.

PPG is an important stat but then again one 40 point game can skew those results and PPG means absolutely zero when the player is on short term IR contributing zero.

I guess a few of you think he is worth a high 1st round pick......Good luck selling him for that but I am sure if you offer that; Most owners couldn't accept fast enough.

If you analyze Kittle closely you will find a consistency drop off beginning week 10 2019.

2019 Weeks 10, 11 Missed.... Week 13 under 5 points
2020 Weeks 2,3 Missed then weeks 9,10,12,13,14,15, Missed; Weeks 1 & 8 under 10 points.
2021 Weeks 5,6,7, Missed for sure so far....Weeks 2, 4 under 10 points.

I get what you're saying about his perceived value but paying a future 1st for this player has a bad risk pattern so again; My advice is buyer beware if you buy at a 1st round price point.

[Valhalla]

I'll say again, since you keep saying he's providing a bunch of zeros, that he ISN'T putting zeros in your lineup. He's on your bench when injured and you still gets points from whatever superstar TE you want to start.

You seem to insist on valuing him based on these variables: how long it's been since 100 or a touchdown, and how often he's giving zero points to your lineup (you're able to start one of the many eh TEs).

I see value as more appropriately viewed by these variables: Expected points provided per start in your lineup, and a much harder to predict how often they'll be available to be in your lineup.

But sure...keep averaging in the injury time zeros to say he was only TE 24 or whatever it was last year.

Yes, I would buy him for a first. I'll try where I don't own him and get back to you. I bet I can't.

[Ice]

Yes, I would buy him for a first. I'll try where I don't own him and get back to you. I bet I can't.

Let me know.

The owner I offered a high 2nd for wanted a projected mid first so you should be able to buy shares of him for a first pretty easily.

No issues if you think he is worth that. I obviously don't in the real trading world so will be trotting out Shultz to compete at the position this year.

Since week 10 of 2019 through week 7 this year Kittle will have missed 13 starts or an entire regular season in fantasy football.

I value players with a lot of variables and availability certainly is one of them.

[Aldonall]

I can’t imagine most people would part with a top-5 TE, and one of the VERY FEW that transcends the TE wasteland, for a late first or below.

The injuries hurt, for sure, but hell, Pat Friermuth went for a late 2 in one of my leagues. Even being generous, maybe 1/10 Friermuths become a Kittle.

You’re not sending Kittle for one of the tier 2 WRs from this class. I’d hope you’re not sending him for any WR in this class not named Chase.

Perhaps I’m not adding much here, but this argument just seems so bizarre to me.

[PigeonBoys]

Kittle is an interesting debate. I will say the Kittle love is pretty amazing for a player struggling to stay on the field.

Contrary to a few comments, I was the one trying to buy actually, not pretend buy in some hypothetically world. I see his value as a high second. Some of you think that is crazy yet none have said what they would pay or even try to pay for him. I get everyone would like to sell him for 1.1 but that is not even a discussion point even though according to some he is WAY MORE Valuable than a 2nd.

PPG is an important stat but then again one 40 point game can skew those results and PPG means absolutely zero when the player is on short term IR contributing zero.

I guess a few of you think he is worth a high 1st round pick......Good luck selling him for that but I am sure if you offer that; Most owners couldn't accept fast enough.

If you analyze Kittle closely you will find a consistency drop off beginning week 10 2019.

2019 Weeks 10, 11 Missed.... Week 13 under 5 points
2020 Weeks 2,3 Missed then weeks 9,10,12,13,14,15, Missed; Weeks 1 & 8 under 10 points.
2021 Weeks 5,6,7, Missed for sure so far....Weeks 2, 4 under 10 points.

I get what you're saying about his perceived value but paying a future 1st for this player has a bad risk pattern so again; My advice is buyer beware if you buy at a 1st round price point.

For the record I tried to trade for Kittle over the weekend, sent over Higbee, 22 late 1st, and 23 late 2nd and it almost immediately got rejected. The owner that has him has dealt with injuries to Wilson, Akers, Montgomery, Ridley, Kittle, etienne and has Watson so he’s barely able to field a team and still a no go. I tried to trade because I feel like his value is getting knocked due to injuries but I think positional scarcity has most owners still holding out for top value cuz who are you going to get that gas the same upside? I get the argument that his recent history is concerning but the entire TE position is a mess so why sell out now?

[ArrylT]

I concur with Ice that George Kittle is an interesting debate / player to consider.

Personally I have never had Kittle in my top tier of TEs due to talent. However I can certainly acknowledge that due to his past situation and production he was deserving to be considered in the top tier for fantasy value purposes.

The issue now is that the situation is evolving & his health concerns is starting to be of a concern. This is the 3rd consecutive year he will have missed time due to injuries. I suppose this makes him sort of a Gronk-Lite. In fact this feels like an apt comparison considering how similar their first 4 years were - including in time missed. The difference is that Gronkowski of course was 3 years younger than Kittle.

IE they play the game in a similar style but Kittle is 3 years older than Gronkowski at the same time Gronk started having consistent injury concerns. Gronks last 1000 yard season (and elite top 3 TE) was his 28 year old 2017. He then had a low TE1 season, took a year off, had another low TE1 season and is now having a TE1 per game season (when he is on the field exactly like Kittle).

So basically, and this is simply from my perspective and I am totally fine if people completely disagree, we now have a good TE in a declining situation with health concerns. Gronkowski has the benefit of a high volume passing game and a QB with years of chemistry. Kittle does not.

In the end it will be up to each owners comfort level. The window may be closing to get a first - if that is your focus. If you're more interested in long term production, well its likely Kittle will stick with SF through til 2023, possibly 2025 due to his contract. However it may take that long for Lance to properly develop. Think Lamar Jackson. His first 400 yard game did not occur til this year (and only 1 300 yard game prior) - his 4th. Trey Lance is similar in that he has a lot of talent but it is going to need time to fully develop.

Going forward it seems reasonable to project a lot of 600-800 yard seasons in Kittles future with 10-12 game seasons (missing 3-7 a season on average). Basically a low floor high upside bet - similar to Mark Andrew was Years 1-3 with Lamar. Except he'll be 31-32 by the time Lance is ready to enter the top (from a passing yardage perspective) tier with guys like Murray & Jackson.

But right now the #1 receiving weapon in SF looks to be Deebo and then its the running game. Kittle simply does not in the short term, with the injury, look like a safe bet to increase in value and long term only looks like a TE2. What that is worth to each owner is up to them - I certainly will not disagree if they wish to buy or sell at a mid to late 1st price in typical ppr.

TE Premium formats is a different story but that precludes the whole debate on how much value should be put on the premium.

[Anteaters]

I think positional scarcity has most owners still holding out for top value cuz who are you going to get that gas the same upside? I get the argument that his recent history is concerning but the entire TE position is a mess so why sell out now?

I agree 100%.
If I had Kittle, I would not trade him for a 2nd.
If I wanted Kittle, I would not offer a mid1st or a top flight player.

He's in that special twilight zone - too much potential to abandon, but too many question marks to pay too much for.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Offered 2 2022 2nds (early/mid range) for him and was denied. Not surprised, but worth a shot. The guy is 0-5 to start so thought trying to unload a few 2nds might intrigue him.

[joeday]

In my main league I am so regretting taking Burton over Kittle.

still regret this lol

[Cameron Giles]

I can’t imagine most people would part with a top-5 TE, and one of the VERY FEW that transcends the TE wasteland, for a late first or below.

The injuries hurt, for sure, but hell, Pat Friermuth went for a late 2 in one of my leagues. Even being generous, maybe 1/10 Friermuths become a Kittle.

You’re not sending Kittle for one of the tier 2 WRs from this class. I’d hope you’re not sending him for any WR in this class not named Chase.

Perhaps I’m not adding much here, but this argument just seems so bizarre to me.

People want to devalue him significantly because of injuries, but dance around his Top 3 production and pretend that the TE position is "deep" with high upside talent, making Kittle undesirable. Again: 14+ PPG on average since 2020. Only Waller and Kelce average better.

I could understand the argument if he was a WR, because there are actually a plethora of options available at that position, but there are only 2 other TEs who can fulfill the upside Kittle has, with Andrews attempting to knock on the door.

You're not missing out by starting a high floor, low ceiling TE who misses less games. You can acquire one pretty easily even with Kittle on your roster if you want.

[dynastyninja]

I'd absolutely buy for a deal where possible. The injuries are baked into his price now.

[frerichs5]

Saw Kittle go for a mid 1st, mid 2nd, Hollywood brown and Juwan Johnson recently. Team that traded him was winless and likely for #1 pick this year.

[Valhalla]

I see value as more appropriately viewed by these variables: Expected points provided per start in your lineup, and a much harder to predict how often they'll be available to be in your lineup.

Well...after his slow start to the season, he's now ranked 5th (in a common format) in points per game (the actual winning potential provided to your lineup). Behind Gronkowski, Kelce, Andrews and Knox. 5th in points per game is behind his typical ~3rd pace...so this rapid turn-around after a 4 game sample leading to "he's not that good anymore" in no way should be a surprise.

[Mike11]

I see value as more appropriately viewed by these variables: Expected points provided per start in your lineup, and a much harder to predict how often they'll be available to be in your lineup.

Well...after his slow start to the season, he's now ranked 5th (in a common format) in points per game (the actual winning potential provided to your lineup). Behind Gronkowski, Kelce, Andrews and Knox. 5th in points per game is behind his typical ~3rd pace...so this rapid turn-around after a 4 game sample leading to "he's not that good anymore" in no way should be a surprise.

Most people on the forums are reactionary to what's presented to them, the people who "win on trades" are more likely to take a risk based on historical data. The other argument you see is how he wasn't getting touchdowns frequently but if you look at his profile it's hard to assume he couldn't get more. If anything, he's been elite without touchdowns which gives him a higher possible ceiling. Waller has had a pretty quiet season during the Raiders dumpster fire of a year but he weirdly is getting next to no flack unlike Kittle.

[sloth8u]

Waller has had a pretty quiet season during the Raiders dumpster fire of a year but he weirdly is getting next to no flack unlike Kittle.

At no point was waller going in the top 30 or better. Im a kittle owner across several leagues and own waller in a few....their value is not comparable from my experiences.

Ask yourself...would you pay top 30 for kittle vs top 75 for waller.,..not a fair comparison imo.