You should probably sell George Kittle

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Mike11
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Mike11 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:19 am

sloth8u wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:14 am
Mike11 wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:10 am
Waller has had a pretty quiet season during the Raiders dumpster fire of a year but he weirdly is getting next to no flack unlike Kittle.
At no point was waller going in the top 30 or better. Im a kittle owner across several leagues and own waller in a few....their value is not comparable from my experiences.

Ask yourself...would you pay top 30 for kittle vs top 75 for waller.,..not a fair comparison imo.
Except Darren Waller is ranked higher as a TE on this very DLF rankings site? I don't like paying that in startup, admittedly I never had to because where I own him I got him on the wire. People on here are debating on if he's worth a first! A random late first is not valued as a top 30 startup pick.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:54 am

Shocker: His games since returning from injury have put him back in the Top-5 for PPG at TE with only Kelce, Waller, Andrews, and Gronk doing better.

The injury risk is still there, but he's an elite TE when he plays. He won't get the type of volume he did when he broke out in his 2nd season, only because the 49ers WRs were mediocre (Bourne, Garcon, Pettis) and he established himself as by far the best option.

With Samuel breaking out, Kittle is looking like #2 or 1b at best.

The same will happen to Waller if the Raiders upgrade at WR to find a clear #1.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:19 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:54 am Shocker: His games since returning from injury have put him back in the Top-5 for PPG at TE with only Kelce, Waller, Andrews, and Gronk doing better.

The injury risk is still there, but he's an elite TE when he plays. He won't get the type of volume he did when he broke out in his 2nd season, only because the 49ers WRs were mediocre (Bourne, Garcon, Pettis) and he established himself as by far the best option.

With Samuel breaking out, Kittle is looking like #2 or 1b at best.

The same will happen to Waller if the Raiders upgrade at WR to find a clear #1.
Not sure anyone was really questioning his talent. No doubt when on the field he is very good. My concern continues to be the 11 games missed in the last 1.5 years.

In 2020 he ranked 20th although his PPg was #3
In 2021 he currently ranks 17th although his PPg is #4.

Kittle is a more than willing and very good blocker but his body isn't great for that job so IMO his injury risk remains very high. Whenever availability is a legit concern value is affected.

One thing for certain at this point is Deebo is the man.....That could actually help Kittle going forward. That staff needs to find a better built blocking TE so they can use Kittle more as a receiver and less as an in the trenches blocker.

An interesting side note; His injury history it is exclusively on his right side. His injury predictor rating is alarmingly high.

https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/inj ... ittle/9540
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Valhalla » Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:50 am

Ice wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:19 am
Not sure anyone was really questioning his talent.
ArrylT was :D
ArrylT wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:48 pm Personally I have never had Kittle in my top tier of TEs due to talent. However I can certainly acknowledge that due to his past situation and production he was deserving to be considered in the top tier for fantasy value purposes.
Are the injury concerns SO high for you that you'd rather take the lower projected points per game player? It just seems disingenuous to label him as a #24 TE finish after averaging in his zeros from weeks you KNEW to keep him on your bench. The #24 TE in PPG was helping teams LOSE games...but Kittle was helping teams win when he played, and allowed you to start another TE to get points (not zeros) when he didn't play.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:11 am

Valhalla wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:50 am
Ice wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:19 am
Not sure anyone was really questioning his talent.
ArrylT was :D
ArrylT wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:48 pm Personally I have never had Kittle in my top tier of TEs due to talent. However I can certainly acknowledge that due to his past situation and production he was deserving to be considered in the top tier for fantasy value purposes.
Are the injury concerns SO high for you that you'd rather take the lower projected points per game player? It just seems disingenuous to label him as a #24 TE finish after averaging in his zeros from weeks you KNEW to keep him on your bench. The #24 TE in PPG was helping teams LOSE games...but Kittle was helping teams win when he played, and allowed you to start another TE to get points (not zeros) when he didn't play.
Strawman Argument.

I wouldn't want to overpay for a part time player.

Nothing wrong if you own him but paying a high 1st rookie pick for a 28 year old player with a very high injury risk is simply not smart at this point in dynasty football.

Kittle isn't getting any younger and his injury risk every game now is over 10% IMO.

As an example, J. Williams, D Smith, and J Waddle were in the 1.6-1.9 range. M. Carter, E. Moore, R. Bateman, & K Toney were in the late 1st early 2nd range.

Are you saying you would take 28 year old Kittle over any of those players knowing he has missed 11 starts over the last 1.5 seasons?

I look at players through a Dynasty window, not a substitute TE on a per game basis. I do get maybe trying to get him for a title run this year but he isn't a great bet to trade a solid 1st round pick longer term outside of special and immediate title gambles.

Kittle is very good when he plays; He is also 28 and has shown a brittle side lately that is an early indicator of an older body breaking down.

It s not disingenuous to ever point out AVAILABILITY concerns and yes he got 11 ZEROs because he could not answer the bell 11 times over the last 24 games. That Matters.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Valhalla » Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:29 am

Ice wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:11 am
Valhalla wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:50 am
Ice wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:19 am
Not sure anyone was really questioning his talent.
ArrylT was :D
ArrylT wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:48 pm Personally I have never had Kittle in my top tier of TEs due to talent. However I can certainly acknowledge that due to his past situation and production he was deserving to be considered in the top tier for fantasy value purposes.
Are the injury concerns SO high for you that you'd rather take the lower projected points per game player? It just seems disingenuous to label him as a #24 TE finish after averaging in his zeros from weeks you KNEW to keep him on your bench. The #24 TE in PPG was helping teams LOSE games...but Kittle was helping teams win when he played, and allowed you to start another TE to get points (not zeros) when he didn't play.
Strawman Argument.

I wouldn't want to overpay for a part time player.

Nothing wrong if you own him but paying a high 1st rookie pick for a 28 year old player with a very high injury risk is simply not smart at this point in dynasty football.

Kittle isn't getting any younger and his injury risk every game now is over 10% IMO.

As an example, J. Williams, D Smith, and J Waddle were in the 1.6-1.9 range. M. Carter, E. Moore, R. Bateman, & K Toney were in the late 1st early 2nd range.

Are you saying you would take 28 year old Kittle over any of those players knowing he has missed 11 starts over the last 1.5 seasons?

I look at players through a Dynasty window, not a substitute TE on a per game basis. I do get maybe trying to get him for a title run this year but he isn't a great bet to trade a solid 1st round pick longer term outside of special and immediate title gambles.

Kittle is very good when he plays; He is also 28 and has shown a brittle side lately that is an early indicator of an older body breaking down.

It s not disingenuous to ever point out AVAILABILITY concerns and yes he got 11 ZEROs because he could not answer the bell 11 times over the last 24 games. That Matters.
He's 28 yes but he's a TE. The elite ones are often elite in their early 30s.
I'd still take Kittle over Smith, Waddle, Carter, Moore, Bateman and Toney yes. I'd take Javonte over Kittle personally.
Yes the injuries need to be factored in. I'm just saying, labeling him as the #24 is disingenuous. So is labeling him the #3 on that injury year. Providing #3 numbers while healthy offered winning contributions to those weeks. Then he's on the IR, and you get thrown into the pool of TE insignificance numbers like most other teams, and aren't at a big disadvantage. But WHILE he plays, he offers an advantage. So he's better than #24, even though that's the stat total finish. Even though he only helped a limited number of weeks, he still HELPED more than most other tight ends aside from a select few. You either have an advantage at TE or you are just part of the field. He offered an advantage, but for just less weeks than the other elite guys. For that reason I put him just below the other elites that are a lower injury risk, but above all TEs that don't provide that same potential to your lineup.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:41 am

Good discussion here.

For me, I think Kittle is a buy. His missed time is a sore spot as well as closing in on 30 years old, but if he stays healthy, he's a huge improvement to your lineup if you don't have one of the current top few TEs. I like taking the calculated risk on players like this even with a rebuilding team. No one wants to be caught holding the bag when a player drops off from age, but at times we all bail too early.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:17 am

Valhalla wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:29 am
Ice wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:11 am
Valhalla wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:50 am

ArrylT was :D


Are the injury concerns SO high for you that you'd rather take the lower projected points per game player? It just seems disingenuous to label him as a #24 TE finish after averaging in his zeros from weeks you KNEW to keep him on your bench. The #24 TE in PPG was helping teams LOSE games...but Kittle was helping teams win when he played, and allowed you to start another TE to get points (not zeros) when he didn't play.
Strawman Argument.

I wouldn't want to overpay for a part time player.

Nothing wrong if you own him but paying a high 1st rookie pick for a 28 year old player with a very high injury risk is simply not smart at this point in dynasty football.

Kittle isn't getting any younger and his injury risk every game now is over 10% IMO.

As an example, J. Williams, D Smith, and J Waddle were in the 1.6-1.9 range. M. Carter, E. Moore, R. Bateman, & K Toney were in the late 1st early 2nd range.

Are you saying you would take 28 year old Kittle over any of those players knowing he has missed 11 starts over the last 1.5 seasons?

I look at players through a Dynasty window, not a substitute TE on a per game basis. I do get maybe trying to get him for a title run this year but he isn't a great bet to trade a solid 1st round pick longer term outside of special and immediate title gambles.

Kittle is very good when he plays; He is also 28 and has shown a brittle side lately that is an early indicator of an older body breaking down.

It s not disingenuous to ever point out AVAILABILITY concerns and yes he got 11 ZEROs because he could not answer the bell 11 times over the last 24 games. That Matters.
He's 28 yes but he's a TE. The elite ones are often elite in their early 30s.
I'd still take Kittle over Smith, Waddle, Carter, Moore, Bateman and Toney yes. I'd take Javonte over Kittle personally.
Yes the injuries need to be factored in. I'm just saying, labeling him as the #24 is disingenuous. So is labeling him the #3 on that injury year. Providing #3 numbers while healthy offered winning contributions to those weeks. Then he's on the IR, and you get thrown into the pool of TE insignificance numbers like most other teams, and aren't at a big disadvantage. But WHILE he plays, he offers an advantage. So he's better than #24, even though that's the stat total finish. Even though he only helped a limited number of weeks, he still HELPED more than most other tight ends aside from a select few. You either have an advantage at TE or you are just part of the field. He offered an advantage, but for just less weeks than the other elite guys. For that reason I put him just below the other elites that are a lower injury risk, but above all TEs that don't provide that same potential to your lineup.
I understand your argument except for the disingenuous comment and respect the difference in opinion.

I get he is a TE and he is 28 but we all know not every 28 year old is not the same. Bodies are different and some breakdown way before others.

IMO, eyes should be wide open when paying a high price for a player that missed 11 games and in the 13 games he did play over a 16 week fantasy season the last year and a half; 5 of those games were single digit point output games. In other words he has played in 8 solid games over that period of time.

Not saying he is a buy, hold, or sell but I am saying I personally wouldn't pay too much as the value return is questionable at best.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Valhalla » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:34 am

Ice wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:17 am
IMO, eyes should be wide open when paying a high price for a player that missed 11 games and in the 13 games he did play over a 16 week fantasy season the last year and a half; 5 of those games were single digit point output games. In other words he has played in 8 solid games over that period of time.
I would challenge you to do this same exercise for other players. Even elite assets don't produce double digits EVERY week. Only the guys worth multiple firsts like Kamara and CMC have a significantly better ratio of staying away from singe digit scores.
8 out of 13 is pretty solid, and that's including a window in which he had a four game start to this season that was uncharacteristic of his usual output when healthy.
To make it more simple...try just doing that exercise for tight ends.
It seems what you're doing is pointing at Kittle and saying "he doesn't produce every week so not worth what rookies in this range are worth" but you aren't paying attention to the expected reality that those rookies, even if they hit, won't produce every week either.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:46 am

Valhalla wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:34 am
Ice wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:17 am
IMO, eyes should be wide open when paying a high price for a player that missed 11 games and in the 13 games he did play over a 16 week fantasy season the last year and a half; 5 of those games were single digit point output games. In other words he has played in 8 solid games over that period of time.
I would challenge you to do this same exercise for other players. Even elite assets don't produce double digits EVERY week. Only the guys worth multiple firsts like Kamara and CMC have a significantly better ratio of staying away from singe digit scores.
8 out of 13 is pretty solid, and that's including a window in which he had a four game start to this season that was uncharacteristic of his usual output when healthy.
To make it more simple...try just doing that exercise for tight ends.
It seems what you're doing is pointing at Kittle and saying "he doesn't produce every week so not worth what rookies in this range are worth" but you aren't paying attention to the expected reality that those rookies, even if they hit, won't produce every week either.
Trust me after 36 years of playing this crazy game I do this exercise on most players. I have learned over the years that shooting for consistency in players weekly has served me well. The real trick is knowing the value of acquisition of an asset. Obviously when selling, we want the highest possible return. Buying assets and knowing when to be careful buying assets is the real key.

The reason for the Kittle posts isn't to win some argument but rather to point a trend I see in this player. Since August of 2020 he has had 4 different injuries. No issues if you agree or disagree.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:29 pm

I'm old enough to remember when Kittle was worth less than Mike Gesecki :lol: :lol:
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
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TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Mike11 » Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:10 pm

This all seems very circular, for those saying they don’t want to pay up because of the risk, that’s fine, you’re not getting him for a second. He’s worth a first and it should easily be better than a dart throw late first.

If you don’t want to pay that price then it’s ok and he won’t be on your teams because that’s his going rate and people who own him are well aware of the risks and their tolerance of said risks.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Valhalla » Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:19 pm

:lol:

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby mild » Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:39 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:29 pm I'm old enough to remember when Kittle was worth more than Mike Gesecki :lol: :lol:
Valhalla wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:19 pm:lol:
I was waiting for this thread to get bumped today :lol:

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:17 pm

mild wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:39 pm
lukkynumber13 wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:29 pm I'm old enough to remember when Kittle was worth more than Mike Gesecki :lol: :lol:
Valhalla wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:19 pm:lol:
I was waiting for this thread to get bumped today :lol:
and will be again when he gets hurt next. That's the way it goes around here.
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