You should probably sell George Kittle

[Ice]

I think your last comment is a bit disingenuous. Dynasty and FF in general is more about value than players you like. Acquiring a dynasty TE for a 2nd round pick is a major steal, even if you think he will never replicate those numbers due to his body holding up. You could have immediately tripled your value had you flipped him.

I think he pretty much summed it up with his comment. Your adding to proving his point. Kittle may or may not be elite and quite honestly....I'd hope you could get a 1st, but people aren't lining up to overpay for kittle. The position is deeper than most realize. With the young guys out there...kittle may not have the market some assume.

Maybe my judgement is clouded by the fact that I roster 7 TEs in one league without a single 10+ ppg guy, but I think it's just as shallow as it's ever been.

Hahaha!

[sloth8u]

I think your last comment is a bit disingenuous. Dynasty and FF in general is more about value than players you like. Acquiring a dynasty TE for a 2nd round pick is a major steal, even if you think he will never replicate those numbers due to his body holding up. You could have immediately tripled your value had you flipped him.

I think he pretty much summed it up with his comment. Your adding to proving his point. Kittle may or may not be elite and quite honestly....I'd hope you could get a 1st, but people aren't lining up to overpay for kittle. The position is deeper than most realize. With the young guys out there...kittle may not have the market some assume.

Maybe my judgement is clouded by the fact that I roster 7 TEs in one league without a single 10+ ppg guy, but I think it's just as shallow as it's ever been.

You may want to hold on to all 7 if you acquire kittle

[Cameron Giles]

Honest question: What do you think Kittle is worth in trade value? For me, it's less than a 1st.

If I could spend less than a 1st and get a TE who is capable of having elite seasons and posting high-end TE numbers, then why wouldn't I do it?

The question isn't "would you pay what I think Kittle is worth?". The question is, "what do you think Kittle is worth?"

For instance, you disagree with me that Kittle is no better than a 2nd round value. I assume that means you'd trade more for Kittle.

Would you trade a random 1st? Would it have to be a late 1st? Would you be okay with trading a mid-1st? What if the Kittle owner asked for a 1st+2nd?

What's the most you'd trade to acquire Kittle today?

I think Kittle is worth a 1st+ simply because of talent scarcity at his position.

People keep saying there's "so much young talent" at TE, but how many of them have elite ceilings? Hockenson, Fant, Gesicki, Thomas, Schultz haven't done anything comparable to what Kittle has. A few years ago, people were touting guys like Hooper, Henry, Burton, and Jonnu, and now what are they doing?

The typical team in a 12-Teamer doesn't have a reliable TE. It's a bunch of dart throws and those mid-tier TEs who do just enough for you to stay afloat, but are sketchy as solutions long-term.

Kittle's injuries suck, but you at least know that when he's playing, he is more than capable of giving you huge games consistently. Even this season, he's still giving you a high floor:

Week 1: 11.8
Week 2: 5.7
Week 3: 17.1
Week 4: 8.0

Average: 10.65

If you told anyone that they could get a guaranteed 10+ points from their TE on average, why would they devalue that?

[Cameron Giles]

…
He is now in his 5th season and his only 2 1000 yard seasons were in 2018 and 2019. His rookie year he had 515 yards, in 2020 he had 634 and this year before his injury he has 227 yards.
…

You realize it’s quite uncommon for TEs to have 1000 yard season…
Kittle held the record for yards for a year (Kelce broke it).

His rookie year, that whole offense was just bad. Bad passing game, with the majority of the season coming through Beathard and Hoyer. The team totaled 15 passing TDs that season…and Kittle wasn’t the starting TE immediately as he was a rookie. Started 7 games. I’m those circumstances, I’m not sure how you hate on 515 yards.

His second year…record breaking. Moving on.

His third year, another 1000 and close to the same pace as his 1300 yard season (missed a couple games). A yawn to you I guess?

Fourth year, he plays a little less than half the season and gets 634 yards…on pace for nearly another 1300 yards. Man this guy just cannot seem to impress me.

I guess you’re right. He’s no better than any of the other guys out there.

Yes and you do realize you're making my point.

Like his heart but do not think he has the body type to play a Gronk type game at the position. This position is changing. Kelce and Waller are now leading the way with Pitts and a few others coming on.

Again, many will continue value Kittle highly which is fine and I tried to buy him for a 2nd at the start of the season and was rejected and scoffed at by his owner but then again.......The fact I tried to buy him should indicate I don't hate him...

Come on, there's no format where anyone is selling Kittle for a random 2nd. He's 28 and has two 1000 yard seasons under his belt.

I get the injury concerns, but anyone saying Kittle is a JAG isn't making sense.

[lukkynumber13]

Honest question: What do you think Kittle is worth in trade value? For me, it's less than a 1st.

If I could spend less than a 1st and get a TE who is capable of having elite seasons and posting high-end TE numbers, then why wouldn't I do it?

The question isn't "would you pay what I think Kittle is worth?". The question is, "what do you think Kittle is worth?"

For instance, you disagree with me that Kittle is no better than a 2nd round value. I assume that means you'd trade more for Kittle.

Would you trade a random 1st? Would it have to be a late 1st? Would you be okay with trading a mid-1st? What if the Kittle owner asked for a 1st+2nd?

What's the most you'd trade to acquire Kittle today?

I would gladly pay a 1st as long as it's not from a deplorable team (if I trade a First and it ends up being the 1.05 or later, I'm good with that).

[lukkynumber13]

…
He is now in his 5th season and his only 2 1000 yard seasons were in 2018 and 2019. His rookie year he had 515 yards, in 2020 he had 634 and this year before his injury he has 227 yards.
…

You realize it’s quite uncommon for TEs to have 1000 yard season…
Kittle held the record for yards for a year (Kelce broke it).

His rookie year, that whole offense was just bad. Bad passing game, with the majority of the season coming through Beathard and Hoyer. The team totaled 15 passing TDs that season…and Kittle wasn’t the starting TE immediately as he was a rookie. Started 7 games. I’m those circumstances, I’m not sure how you hate on 515 yards.

His second year…record breaking. Moving on.

His third year, another 1000 and close to the same pace as his 1300 yard season (missed a couple games). A yawn to you I guess?

Fourth year, he plays a little less than half the season and gets 634 yards…on pace for nearly another 1300 yards. Man this guy just cannot seem to impress me.

I guess you’re right. He’s no better than any of the other guys out there.

[Vcize]

People keep saying there's "so much young talent" at TE, but how many of them have elite ceilings? Hockenson, Fant, Gesicki, Thomas, Schultz haven't done anything comparable to what Kittle has. A few years ago, people were touting guys like Hooper, Henry, Burton, and Jonnu, and now what are they doing?

This is a great point and one that I think people really underappreciate with FF. There is ALWAYS that big group of potential TEs that people feel comfortable having as their primary guy. But that's basically what they are. Comfort food. The hit rate on these guys is atrocious but people are always excited to own them.

People now think they're fine at TE because they have Gesicki or Thomas just like people 2 years ago thought they were fine at TE because they had Jonnu Smith or Gerald Everett just like 2 years before that people thought they were fine at TE because they had Tyler Eifert or Kyle Rudolph just like 2 years before that people thought they were fine at TE because they had Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Cameron Jordan.

The reality is that most of those guys in that group of next-tier TEs that people feel comfortable with are going to be frustratingly dropping points while their owners convince themselves that their breakout is right around the corner until a year or two from now they finally throw in the towel and drop them from their roster entirely.

The old adage "if you have 2 QBs, you have none" is a cliche but I think it's fitting with this tier of "if you have 15 TEs on the verge of a breakout, you have none".

[Ice]

You realize it’s quite uncommon for TEs to have 1000 yard season…
Kittle held the record for yards for a year (Kelce broke it).

His rookie year, that whole offense was just bad. Bad passing game, with the majority of the season coming through Beathard and Hoyer. The team totaled 15 passing TDs that season…and Kittle wasn’t the starting TE immediately as he was a rookie. Started 7 games. I’m those circumstances, I’m not sure how you hate on 515 yards.

His second year…record breaking. Moving on.

His third year, another 1000 and close to the same pace as his 1300 yard season (missed a couple games). A yawn to you I guess?

Fourth year, he plays a little less than half the season and gets 634 yards…on pace for nearly another 1300 yards. Man this guy just cannot seem to impress me.

I guess you’re right. He’s no better than any of the other guys out there.

Yes and you do realize you're making my point.

Like his heart but do not think he has the body type to play a Gronk type game at the position. This position is changing. Kelce and Waller are now leading the way with Pitts and a few others coming on.

Again, many will continue value Kittle highly which is fine and I tried to buy him for a 2nd at the start of the season and was rejected and scoffed at by his owner but then again.......The fact I tried to buy him should indicate I don't hate him...

Come on, there's no format where anyone is selling Kittle for a random 2nd. He's 28 and has two 1000 yard seasons under his belt.

I get the injury concerns, but anyone saying Kittle is a JAG isn't making sense.

I am not sure if anyone is selling him for a 2nd but my take is that is his actual value these days when one gets past his success in 2019.

In his last 9 games in a fantasy season he has seen 5 or fewer targets in 5 of those games. Additionally he missed 8 games last season and for sure will miss 3 more.

I get you don't see it like I do which is fine but then again Knox as an example has 5 TD's in his last 4 games. Kittle has never had more than 5 TD's in an entire season and the last time he had 5 in a season was 2019.

His utilization is simply not studly any longer so anyone that buys him for a 1st next year be ware of the warning signs is my advice.

[Cameron Giles]

I am not sure if anyone is selling him for a 2nd but my take is that is his actual value these days when one gets past his success in 2019.

In his last 9 games in a fantasy season he has seen 5 or fewer targets in 5 of those games. Additionally he missed 8 games last season and for sure will miss 3 more.

I get you don't see it like I do which is fine but then again Knox as an example has 5 TD's in his last 4 games. Kittle has never had more than 5 TD's in an entire season and the last time he had 5 in a season was 2019.

His utilization is simply not studly any longer so anyone that buys him for a 1st next year be ware of the warning signs is my advice.

Why his last 9 games? What's significant about 9?

Kittle's last 12 games, which is every game he played in 2020 and 2021 (so far)

8.8
39.3
8.8
23.9
10.5
5.9 (left early)
13.2
15.8
11.8
5.7
17.1
8.0

Average: 14.06 points

7 games of 10+ points or more. 7 games of 7 targets or more.

Everyone's free to value players as they want, but valuing him as a 2nd round pick is bad valuation. I would love to get a TE who's going to average 14+ points as his decline.

I'll give you the list of TEs averaging at least 14 points going back to last season:

Travis Kelce
Darren Waller

[Anteaters]

Fourth year, he plays a little less than half the season and gets 634 yards…on pace for nearly another 1300 yards. Man this guy just cannot seem to impress me.

"Pace" is for marathons. One thing we've learned about Kittle is he's not built for the long run.
<ba dum PAH!>

[Ice]

I am not sure if anyone is selling him for a 2nd but my take is that is his actual value these days when one gets past his success in 2019.

In his last 9 games in a fantasy season he has seen 5 or fewer targets in 5 of those games. Additionally he missed 8 games last season and for sure will miss 3 more.

I get you don't see it like I do which is fine but then again Knox as an example has 5 TD's in his last 4 games. Kittle has never had more than 5 TD's in an entire season and the last time he had 5 in a season was 2019.

His utilization is simply not studly any longer so anyone that buys him for a 1st next year be ware of the warning signs is my advice.

Why his last 9 games? What's significant about 9?

Kittle's last 12 games, which is every game he played in 2020 and 2021 (so far)

8.8
39.3
8.8
23.9
10.5
5.9 (left early)
13.2
15.8
11.8
5.7
17.1
8.0

Average: 14.06 points

7 games of 10+ points or more. 7 games of 7 targets or more.

Everyone's free to value players as they want, but valuing him as a 2nd round pick is bad valuation. I would love to get a TE who's going to average 14+ points as his decline.

I'll give you the list of TEs averaging at least 14 points going back to last season:

Travis Kelce
Darren Waller

I actually meant 11 games as those were relevant in fantasy. In those games it was 5 or less targets.

By all means if you personally can buy him for a first go for it. Good luck selling him for a 1st.

Kittle is on a team in transition at QB with a player that likes to run and solid WR's in near stud Deebo and solid Aiyuk.

This was a pretty prolific report on Kittle from your perspective. I think their overall picture was bit rosey.
https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/inj ... ittle/9540

You sound like you're trying to sell. Sorry; I am not trying to drive down your asking price.

[Cameron Giles]

I am not sure if anyone is selling him for a 2nd but my take is that is his actual value these days when one gets past his success in 2019.

In his last 9 games in a fantasy season he has seen 5 or fewer targets in 5 of those games. Additionally he missed 8 games last season and for sure will miss 3 more.

I get you don't see it like I do which is fine but then again Knox as an example has 5 TD's in his last 4 games. Kittle has never had more than 5 TD's in an entire season and the last time he had 5 in a season was 2019.

His utilization is simply not studly any longer so anyone that buys him for a 1st next year be ware of the warning signs is my advice.

Why his last 9 games? What's significant about 9?

Kittle's last 12 games, which is every game he played in 2020 and 2021 (so far)

8.8
39.3
8.8
23.9
10.5
5.9 (left early)
13.2
15.8
11.8
5.7
17.1
8.0

Average: 14.06 points

7 games of 10+ points or more. 7 games of 7 targets or more.

Everyone's free to value players as they want, but valuing him as a 2nd round pick is bad valuation. I would love to get a TE who's going to average 14+ points as his decline.

I'll give you the list of TEs averaging at least 14 points going back to last season:

Travis Kelce
Darren Waller

I actually meant 11 games as those were relevant in fantasy. In those games it was 5 or less targets.

By all means if you personally can buy him for a first go for it. Good luck selling him for a 1st.

Kittle is on a team in transition at QB with a player that likes to run and solid WR's in near stud Deebo and solid Aiyuk.

This was a pretty prolific report on Kittle from your perspective. I think their overall picture was bit rosey.
https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/inj ... ittle/9540

You sound like you're trying to sell. Sorry; I am not trying to drive down your asking price.

I wish I had shares of Kittle, especially if people think he's a JAG and only worth a 2nd. The numbers speak for themselves. I get the injury concerns, but if you run the numbers, the amount of TEs who are more reliable than Kittle are the other two elite TEs.

[Cameron Giles]

People keep saying there's "so much young talent" at TE, but how many of them have elite ceilings? Hockenson, Fant, Gesicki, Thomas, Schultz haven't done anything comparable to what Kittle has. A few years ago, people were touting guys like Hooper, Henry, Burton, and Jonnu, and now what are they doing?

This is a great point and one that I think people really underappreciate with FF. There is ALWAYS that big group of potential TEs that people feel comfortable having as their primary guy. But that's basically what they are. Comfort food. The hit rate on these guys is atrocious but people are always excited to own them.

People now think they're fine at TE because they have Gesicki or Thomas just like people 2 years ago thought they were fine at TE because they had Jonnu Smith or Gerald Everett just like 2 years before that people thought they were fine at TE because they had Tyler Eifert or Kyle Rudolph just like 2 years before that people thought they were fine at TE because they had Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Cameron Jordan.

The reality is that most of those guys in that group of next-tier TEs that people feel comfortable with are going to be frustratingly dropping points while their owners convince themselves that their breakout is right around the corner until a year or two from now they finally throw in the towel and drop them from their roster entirely.

The old adage "if you have 2 QBs, you have none" is a cliche but I think it's fitting with this tier of "if you have 15 TEs on the verge of a breakout, you have none".

Exactly. The only TEs in dynasty who end up lasting are the elite ones. Everyone else is flash in the pan or overhyped. Players like Hooper, Jonnu, Henry, Fleener, Cameron, and plenty of others peak with maybe one season of above-average production and then do a whole lot of nothing. People get excited because they have an adequate TE that they got for cheap.

You don't need an elite TE to win in non-premium leagues, but if you had one, why would you sell for something that isn't as valuable as having one of the few TEs capable of giving you big weeks?

[DJB]

Selling at peak value is never a bad move. Nice call by the OP and others that vouched to move him.

[jenkins.math]

I sold my only share of Kittle this offseason straight up for Swift. Most thought it was a bad move giving up an elite TE. Now I don't think any Swift owner is moving him for Kittle. Sometimes you have to call your shot and take your chance.