You should probably sell George Kittle

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:10 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:02 pm
Vcize wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:53 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:20 am People keep saying there's "so much young talent" at TE, but how many of them have elite ceilings? Hockenson, Fant, Gesicki, Thomas, Schultz haven't done anything comparable to what Kittle has. A few years ago, people were touting guys like Hooper, Henry, Burton, and Jonnu, and now what are they doing?
This is a great point and one that I think people really underappreciate with FF. There is ALWAYS that big group of potential TEs that people feel comfortable having as their primary guy. But that's basically what they are. Comfort food. The hit rate on these guys is atrocious but people are always excited to own them.

People now think they're fine at TE because they have Gesicki or Thomas just like people 2 years ago thought they were fine at TE because they had Jonnu Smith or Gerald Everett just like 2 years before that people thought they were fine at TE because they had Tyler Eifert or Kyle Rudolph just like 2 years before that people thought they were fine at TE because they had Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Cameron Jordan.

The reality is that most of those guys in that group of next-tier TEs that people feel comfortable with are going to be frustratingly dropping points while their owners convince themselves that their breakout is right around the corner until a year or two from now they finally throw in the towel and drop them from their roster entirely.

The old adage "if you have 2 QBs, you have none" is a cliche but I think it's fitting with this tier of "if you have 15 TEs on the verge of a breakout, you have none".
Exactly. The only TEs in dynasty who end up lasting are the elite ones. Everyone else is flash in the pan or overhyped. Players like Hooper, Jonnu, Henry, Fleener, Cameron, and plenty of others peak with maybe one season of above-average production and then do a whole lot of nothing. People get excited because they have an adequate TE that they got for cheap.

You don't need an elite TE to win in non-premium leagues, but if you had one, why would you sell for something that isn't as valuable as having one of the few TEs capable of giving you big weeks?
Don't think it has anything to do with feeling fine if you think you have a stud TE and don't.

The real conversation; Does one feel fine owning Kittle thinking he is stud but not playing like it?

His last TD and 100 yard game was 10/18/20. He will next suit up in November of 2021. That will be a year removed from a 100 yard game or a TD.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:12 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:53 pm I sold my only share of Kittle this offseason straight up for Swift. Most thought it was a bad move giving up an elite TE. Now I don't think any Swift owner is moving him for Kittle. Sometimes you have to call your shot and take your chance.
That was ahead of the curve thinking IMO. Very Nice!
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:23 pm

Saying "you should move Kittle for peak value" or "sell Kittle for Swift" is not bad process.

Saying Kittle is not a far superior player to the flat world of backend TE1s and you should move him for a late 1st or early 2nd ASAP, is bad process.
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:00 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:23 pm Saying "you should move Kittle for peak value" or "sell Kittle for Swift" is not bad process.

Saying Kittle is not a far superior player to the flat world of backend TE1s and you should move him for a late 1st or early 2nd ASAP, is bad process.
I find it really hard to believe any of the Kittle truthers would sell their 1st round pick to get him today.

That would be bad process management. This is a what if you have done for me lately world and what exactly has Kittle done. YTD before injury he ranked 10th.

It's true at one point many believed the earth was flat. Today many still believe Kittle is an Uber Stud even though he managed to put up 5.7 and 8.0 points in 2 of his 4 games this season while earning that 10th place ranking.

To put a bow on it; Go ask a Kadarius Toney owner today if you could trade Kittle for him? Toney was a back end 1st or early 2nd round choice so acting like that is no value is what is ridiculous.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:09 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:00 pm
lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:23 pm Saying "you should move Kittle for peak value" or "sell Kittle for Swift" is not bad process.

Saying Kittle is not a far superior player to the flat world of backend TE1s and you should move him for a late 1st or early 2nd ASAP, is bad process.
I find it really hard to believe any of the Kittle truthers would sell their 1st round pick to get him today.

That would be bad process management. This is a what if you have done for me lately world and what exactly has Kittle done. YTD before injury he ranked 10th.

It's true at one point many believed the earth was flat. Today many still believe Kittle is an Uber Stud even though he managed to put up 5.7 and 8.0 points in 2 of his 4 games this season while earning that 10th place ranking.

To put a bow on it; Go ask a Kadarius Toney owner today if you could trade Kittle for him? Toney was a back end 1st or early 2nd round choice so acting like that is no value is what is ridiculous.
If I'm a contending team with a huge gap at TE, why wouldn't I send a late first for Kittle? Even if he misses games, I'm still getting someone who significantly improves my season upside.

You keep saying "what have you done for me lately" while ignoring that Kittle is still a Top 3 TE in PPG since last season. A TE averaging 14+ PPG is not easy to come by in dynasty. You're cherry picking bad games to dance around that.

Like I said, people are free to value players how they want, but valuing Kittle as a random 2nd is bad valuation, simply because nobody would do it and the value doesn't match the profile and production.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:33 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:09 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:00 pm
lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:23 pm Saying "you should move Kittle for peak value" or "sell Kittle for Swift" is not bad process.

Saying Kittle is not a far superior player to the flat world of backend TE1s and you should move him for a late 1st or early 2nd ASAP, is bad process.
I find it really hard to believe any of the Kittle truthers would sell their 1st round pick to get him today.

That would be bad process management. This is a what if you have done for me lately world and what exactly has Kittle done. YTD before injury he ranked 10th.

It's true at one point many believed the earth was flat. Today many still believe Kittle is an Uber Stud even though he managed to put up 5.7 and 8.0 points in 2 of his 4 games this season while earning that 10th place ranking.

To put a bow on it; Go ask a Kadarius Toney owner today if you could trade Kittle for him? Toney was a back end 1st or early 2nd round choice so acting like that is no value is what is ridiculous.
If I'm a contending team with a huge gap at TE, why wouldn't I send a late first for Kittle? Even if he misses games, I'm still getting someone who significantly improves my season upside.

You keep saying "what have you done for me lately" while ignoring that Kittle is still a Top 3 TE in PPG since last season. A TE averaging 14+ PPG is not easy to come by in dynasty. You're cherry picking bad games to dance around that.

Like I said, people are free to value players how they want, but valuing Kittle as a random 2nd is bad valuation, simply because nobody would do it and the value doesn't match the profile and production.
Not ignoring him at all but the trends must be acknowledged. I offered to buy the player for what you say is bad valuation. That 2nd was from a rebuilding team btw who has won 1 game this year, Random 2nd are your words.

His actual profile production is also highly suspect given his recent injury history.

Availability matters. Let's look at Dalton Shultz as an example; He is a good player in a great system and has won the job as the pass catching TE for Dallas which is a juggernaut offense.

His targets with a highly accurate QB this year are 6,2,7,8,8 More impressive are his receptions off those targets 6,2,6,6,6. He may not be the player Kittle is overall but his system is way better and he is available. He is a legit TE 1 and ranks 3rd YTD. In his system he should be close to a lock top 5-6 TE this year. He is an inch taller at 6'5 and 10 lbs heavier and actually had higher initial draft capital while being 3 years younger. Today he is averaging 14.4 points.

That's what Kittle is up against and savvy owners should be aware when assessing real value.

So who would you rather own in all seriousness today?

BTW, I am not cherrying picking anything. Go look at his last 100 yard game and TD performance since then. Look at how many games he has missed last year and the 3 known going forward at a minimum this year and the actual system he now finds himself in today.

I like Kittle but that doesn't mean I am going to wear rose colored glasses and pay more than actual worth once you get past the name Kittle.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:35 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:33 pm
Not ignoring him at all but the trends must be acknowledged. I offered to buy the player for what you say is bad valuation. That 2nd was from a rebuilding team btw who has won 1 game this year, Random 2nd are your words.

His actual profile production is also highly suspect given his recent injury history.

Availability matters. Let's look at Dalton Shultz as an example; He is a good player in a great system and has won the job as the pass catching TE for Dallas which is a juggernaut offense.

His targets with a highly accurate QB this year are 6,2,7,8,8 More impressive are his receptions off those targets 6,2,6,6,6. He may not be the player Kittle is overall but his system is way better and he is available. He is a legit TE 1 and ranks 3rd YTD. In his system he should be close to a lock top 5-6 TE this year. He is an inch taller at 6'5 and 10 lbs heavier and actually had higher initial draft capital while being 3 years younger. Today he is averaging 14.4 points.

That's what Kittle is up against and savvy owners should be aware when assessing real value.

So who would you rather own in all seriousness today?

BTW, I am not cherrying picking anything. Go look at his last 100 yard game and TD performance since then. Look at how many games he has missed last year and the 3 known going forward at a minimum this year and the actual system he now finds himself in today.

I like Kittle but that doesn't mean I am going to wear rose colored glasses and pay more than actual worth once you get past the name Kittle.
But you didn't acknowledge a trend. You cherry picked numbers and cut off stats to force a point. I gave you his entire numbers from 2020-21 which shows him still averaging elite TE1 numbers while still getting well over 7+ targets or more in those games.

Regardless of how you want to move the goalposts on his numbers to prove a decline, he is averaging over 14PPG since 2020. Only 2 othjer TEs are doing better in that span.

The 49ers have had some weird game script this season, but Kittle is still 2nd on the team in targets.

I would trade Dalton Schultz for George Kittle so fast. Schultz is producing, but he is a middling talent in a good situation. Take Schultz out of Dallas and what is he? Shades of Austin Hooper in Atlanta having a career year when the team was always trailing. Now, he's in Cleveland doing nothing.

I don't disagree that there isn't some risk in owning Kittle. The injuries are a valid concern. But, you can't sit here and act like he isn't producing when he plays. Slow start to this season? Absolutely, but still more than capable of having big games, and you can't say that about many other TEs.

I'll gladly trade flash in the pan players like Knox, Schultz, and Thomas for a proven difference maker.
Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:33 pm
BTW, I am not cherrying picking anything. Go look at his last 100 yard game and TD performance since then. Look at how many games he has missed last year and the 3 known going forward at a minimum this year and the actual system he now finds himself in today.
Most 100 yard games by a TE since 2019:

Fant: 2
Hooper: 2
Higbee: 4
Kittle: 5
Kelce: 10
Waller: 11

This isn't the knock you think it is.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:43 pm

Face it guys, he turned 28 2 days ago. It's over

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Valhalla » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:42 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:43 pm Face it guys, he turned 28 2 days ago. It's over
:lol:

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Valhalla » Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:00 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:10 pm
His last TD and 100 yard game was 10/18/20. He will next suit up in November of 2021. That will be a year removed from a 100 yard game or a TD.
Seems like a random thing to be picky on. He had a 92 yard game in there. He also had a game in the 60s with 7 receptions. The sample size is only 8 games (6 complete games). Seems disingenuous to both knock him for “length of time since last 100 yard game” and “not available.” Yes, he’s been unavailable a lot. When he does play though, he’s really good.
This feels like a Jeremy Maclin, Brandin Cooks type of thread. I imagine similar things were said on these forums of Gronk after multiple injury riddled seasons. Don’t doubt that talent can explode a huge season or seasons again.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Ice » Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:08 pm

Valhalla wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:00 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:10 pm
His last TD and 100 yard game was 10/18/20. He will next suit up in November of 2021. That will be a year removed from a 100 yard game or a TD.
Seems like a random thing to be picky on. He had a 92 yard game in there. He also had a game in the 60s with 7 receptions. The sample size is only 8 games (6 complete games). Seems disingenuous to both knock him for “length of time since last 100 yard game” and “not available.” Yes, he’s been unavailable a lot. When he does play though, he’s really good.
This feels like a Jeremy Maclin, Brandin Cooks type of thread. I imagine similar things were said on these forums of Gronk after multiple injury riddled seasons. Don’t doubt that talent can explode a huge season or seasons again.
14 career TD’s in 4 plus years. He will most likely have 2 1000 yard seasons in 5 years.

Spin it how you like

2017 TE rank 23rd
2018 TE rank 3rd
2019 TE rank 4th
2020 TE rank 20th
2021 TE rank 16th YTD and dropping due to lack of availability yet again.

You realize people are acting like the spread of 5-6 picks is as bad as growing a third eye.

He isn’t worth anywhere near the top 1/2 of a round 1 rookie pick. Thinking he is at this point is what would be disingenuous.

I doubt you would really give any first round pick for him given his health, age, and system.
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:15 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:08 pm
Valhalla wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:00 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:10 pm
His last TD and 100 yard game was 10/18/20. He will next suit up in November of 2021. That will be a year removed from a 100 yard game or a TD.
Seems like a random thing to be picky on. He had a 92 yard game in there. He also had a game in the 60s with 7 receptions. The sample size is only 8 games (6 complete games). Seems disingenuous to both knock him for “length of time since last 100 yard game” and “not available.” Yes, he’s been unavailable a lot. When he does play though, he’s really good.
This feels like a Jeremy Maclin, Brandin Cooks type of thread. I imagine similar things were said on these forums of Gronk after multiple injury riddled seasons. Don’t doubt that talent can explode a huge season or seasons again.
14 career TD’s in 4 plus years. He will most likely have 2 1000 yard seasons in 5 years.

Spin it how you like

2017 TE rank 23rd
2018 TE rank 3rd
2019 TE rank 4th
2020 TE rank 20th
2021 TE rank 16th YTD and dropping due to lack of availability yet again.

You realize people are acting like the spread of 5-6 picks is as bad as growing a third eye.

He isn’t worth anywhere near the top 1/2 of a round 1 rookie pick. Thinking he is at this point is what would be disingenuous.

I doubt you would really give any first round pick for him given his health, age, and system.
Definitely not. Unless that TE is providing a distinct, and continuous positional advantage, why on earth would anyone pay an early first for one?
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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:47 am

Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:08 pm 14 career TD’s in 4 plus years. He will most likely have 2 1000 yard seasons in 5 years.

Spin it how you like

2017 TE rank 23rd
2018 TE rank 3rd
2019 TE rank 4th
2020 TE rank 20th
2021 TE rank 16th YTD and dropping due to lack of availability yet again.

You realize people are acting like the spread of 5-6 picks is as bad as growing a third eye.

He isn’t worth anywhere near the top 1/2 of a round 1 rookie pick. Thinking he is at this point is what would be disingenuous.

I doubt you would really give any first round pick for him given his health, age, and system.
Again, the knocks you have on him aren't the knocks you think they are. "He'll only have two 1000 yard seasons in 5 years".

How many other TEs have had a 1000 yard season in the same span? I'll tell you:

Kelce: 4
Waller: 2
Kittle: 2
Gronk: 1
Ertz: 1

So, once again, unless you have another elite TE, you are not upgrading to what you are getting from Kittle. You're acting like there's a bunch of other TEs giving you the production that he's capable of and there aren't.

Kittle's PPG:

2017 - TE19
2018 - TE3
2019 - TE2
2020 - TE3
2021 - TE12

Kittle has been a Top-3 TE in PPG for the last 3 seasons and his decline this year still has him Top-12 in PPG.

I don't think anyone has said that they would pay a Top-3 1st round pick for him. Hell, I wouldn't even pay one for Kelce right now considering his age.

You said that you would only value him as a random 2nd round pick and that's insane given Kittle's production and what you actually project to get from a 2nd round rookie pick. Yes, the injuries suck, but when he's in your lineup, you are getting a set it and forget it difference maker.

If you value a TE who has a lower ceiling, but doesn't get injured as much, then fine, but those players are flashes in the pan and never last long. History shows us that elite TE assets are the only ones that largely stick long-term.

I'm not even saying that there aren't good players you should or could have sold him for; I'm just saying that your valuation is not practical based on profile and production.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Valhalla » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:55 am

Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:08 pm
Valhalla wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:00 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:10 pm
His last TD and 100 yard game was 10/18/20. He will next suit up in November of 2021. That will be a year removed from a 100 yard game or a TD.
Seems like a random thing to be picky on. He had a 92 yard game in there. He also had a game in the 60s with 7 receptions. The sample size is only 8 games (6 complete games). Seems disingenuous to both knock him for “length of time since last 100 yard game” and “not available.” Yes, he’s been unavailable a lot. When he does play though, he’s really good.
This feels like a Jeremy Maclin, Brandin Cooks type of thread. I imagine similar things were said on these forums of Gronk after multiple injury riddled seasons. Don’t doubt that talent can explode a huge season or seasons again.
14 career TD’s in 4 plus years. He will most likely have 2 1000 yard seasons in 5 years.

Spin it how you like

2017 TE rank 23rd
2018 TE rank 3rd
2019 TE rank 4th
2020 TE rank 20th
2021 TE rank 16th YTD and dropping due to lack of availability yet again.

You realize people are acting like the spread of 5-6 picks is as bad as growing a third eye.

He isn’t worth anywhere near the top 1/2 of a round 1 rookie pick. Thinking he is at this point is what would be disingenuous.

I doubt you would really give any first round pick for him given his health, age, and system.
"2017 TE rank 23rd" AS A ROOKIE that started 7 games in one of the WORST passing offenses in a modern era season.
"2018 TE rank 3rd"
"2019 TE rank 4th"
"2020 TE rank 20th" Sure maybe total on the season, but he wasn't available for half of it. It's not like he was in your lineup continuously disappointing with around TE20 performances. He was delivering top 3 performances, then during his injury you were able to start your project superstar Jonnu Smith or whoever...You can't label him as a TE that only was providing TE20 performances to lineups. It's just flat out oversimplification to the point of being false.
"2021 TE rank 16th YTD" A slow start. After pacing as an elite option when healthy from 2018-2020, I'll trust he could turn it around and we shouldn't label his 2021 season on four games...where he's doing fine anyways with a 7 reception 92 yard game and a 4 reception 78 yard game.

You can write him off all you want to. Sure, his season total, when spread out over 16 games, was only TE20. Seems pretty ordinary.
I'll continue to view fantasy assets as what they can provide to my lineup winning potential. If I know they are out, they aren't giving me zero because they are on the bench or on IR and I'm starting one of these many other TEs that are actually just ok. When he's healthy, he paces as a top three option, and that helps my lineup...makes my team more competitive. What is a fantasy asset if it doesn't provide a potential edge? Kittle does exactly that. If he's healthy, you're starting him...even if you have Kelce or Waller. You just start two TEs because Kittle is likely better than your other flex options. That is valuable. Way more valuable than a 2nd.

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Re: You should probably sell George Kittle

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:16 am

I'd give a late 1st for Kittle pretty easily if I needed TE help. He's elite when he plays. If I could get him for a 2nd, I'd do it regardless of team situation


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