You should probably sell George Kittle

[dynastyninja]

Btw Moore is a far better Dynasty asset than Kittle these days.

Wrong

[Ice]

Btw Moore is a far better Dynasty asset than Kittle these days.

Wrong

Looking forward to revisiting this annually.

A few more injuries and some will probably start calling him Brittle Kittle!

[dynastyninja]

Btw Moore is a far better Dynasty asset than Kittle these days.

Wrong

Looking forward to revisiting this annually.

A few more injuries and some will probably start calling him Brittle Kittle!

Half seasons of elite TE production over 3-5 years is worth more than just another talented, non-elite receiver.

[Ice]

Wrong

Looking forward to revisiting this annually.

A few more injuries and some will probably start calling him Brittle Kittle!

Half seasons of elite TE production over 3-5 years is worth more than just another talented, non-elite receiver.

While Looking Forward or Looking Backwards are both options; One thing for sure:

Objects in the Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear

[Cameron Giles]

Some of you are pretty rich.

It’s not disingenuous to use a guy like E, Moore when he was the was player I took when I couldn’t acquire Kittle. many of talk in randomness value but when one looks at actual people it changes.

It’s not wrong to realistically value a player. I was probably one of the few that had a first round grade on Moore. Arguing valuation is pretty foolish.

I get most of you in your quest to act like today’s Kittle is worth 7-10 picks higher than me but in all honesty it’s a silly argument.

We can all agree Kittle is a very good player when on field but where we differ IMO is many of you are blinded by the forest at the edge of the cliff. He is 28 with a significant injury history. He is not getting any younger.

His value isn’t close to what it was on 2019.

That said if you own him.

Btw Moore is a far better Dynasty asset than Kittle these days.

You won't find a bigger fan of Moore than me on here.

But the reality is that a TE who can score like Kittle is more valuable than a WR who isn't elite. It's easier to find players like Moore than TEs like Kittle. The value shows most in the playoffs when you have close games and your matchup comes down to the TE.

I don't think anyone is arguing that his value is what it was after his second season, but it's much higher than the value you have on him and there's a short, short list of TEs who MIGHT represent an upgrade.

[Ice]

You won't find a bigger fan of Moore than me on here.

But the reality is that a TE who can score like Kittle is more valuable than a WR who isn't elite. It's easier to find players like Moore than TEs like Kittle. The value shows most in the playoffs when you have close games and your matchup comes down to the TE.

I don't think anyone is arguing that his value is what it was after his second season, but it's much higher than the value you have on him and there's a short, short list of TEs who MIGHT represent an upgrade.

If they were both in their early 20's I would agree but 11 reasonably good games out if the last possible 28 NFL games from a 28 year old player with 9 injuries n his right side has the vast majority of the risk.

Last year in the fantasy playoffs Kittle didn't even play until his 13 point outing in week 16. He carried no one.

This year the fantasy playoffs haven't started so even if you make it will you get the 2 point, 37 point, or get the injured version when they do start?

Don't get me wrong, I would love to own him for the next few weeks but this is dynasty so I am looking at a longer view here while I run with my TE match ups between the Bills, Cowboys and Miami TE's who were way less expensive.

[Cameron Giles]

You won't find a bigger fan of Moore than me on here.

But the reality is that a TE who can score like Kittle is more valuable than a WR who isn't elite. It's easier to find players like Moore than TEs like Kittle. The value shows most in the playoffs when you have close games and your matchup comes down to the TE.

I don't think anyone is arguing that his value is what it was after his second season, but it's much higher than the value you have on him and there's a short, short list of TEs who MIGHT represent an upgrade.

If they were both in their early 20's I would agree but 11 reasonably good games out if the last possible 28 NFL games from a 28 year old player with 9 injuries n his right side has the vast majority of the risk.

Last year in the fantasy playoffs Kittle didn't even play until his 13 point outing in week 16. He carried no one.

This year the fantasy playoffs haven't started so even if you make it will you get the 2 point, 37 point, or get the injured version when they do start?

Don't get me wrong, I would love to own him for the next few weeks but this is dynasty so I am looking at a longer view here while I run with my TE match ups between the Bills, Cowboys and Miami TE's who were way less expensive.

I never said carried, I'm implying that his weekly upside at a wasteland position is worth more than a WR who isn't elite or near elite, because the dropoff in dependability at TE is significant. You can find solid WRs very easily. Even if Kittle is only that player for 3-4 more years, it's valuable.

Flash in the pan, matchup TEs like Knox, Schultz, and Gesicki come and go. It's merely an avoidant strategy so you don't buy high on an elite TE and experience any downside or because the teams with elite TEs aren't selling.

[Ice]

You won't find a bigger fan of Moore than me on here.

But the reality is that a TE who can score like Kittle is more valuable than a WR who isn't elite. It's easier to find players like Moore than TEs like Kittle. The value shows most in the playoffs when you have close games and your matchup comes down to the TE.

I don't think anyone is arguing that his value is what it was after his second season, but it's much higher than the value you have on him and there's a short, short list of TEs who MIGHT represent an upgrade.

If they were both in their early 20's I would agree but 11 reasonably good games out if the last possible 28 NFL games from a 28 year old player with 9 injuries n his right side has the vast majority of the risk.

Last year in the fantasy playoffs Kittle didn't even play until his 13 point outing in week 16. He carried no one.

This year the fantasy playoffs haven't started so even if you make it will you get the 2 point, 37 point, or get the injured version when they do start?

Don't get me wrong, I would love to own him for the next few weeks but this is dynasty so I am looking at a longer view here while I run with my TE match ups between the Bills, Cowboys and Miami TE's who were way less expensive.

I never said carried, I'm implying that his weekly upside at a wasteland position is worth more than a WR who isn't elite or near elite, because the dropoff in dependability at TE is significant. You can find solid WRs very easily. Even if Kittle is only that player for 3-4 more years, it's valuable.

Flash in the pan, matchup TEs like Knox, Schultz, and Gesicki come and go. It's merely an avoidant strategy so you don't buy high on an elite TE and experience any downside or because the teams with elite TEs aren't selling.

No doubt his owners overvalue him.

[Valhalla]

I can see there's no convincing you that you just might benefit from reconsidering your valuation...but I'm going to try again anyways.

You say you'd rather roster and rotate a few tight ends based on matchups than roster kittle. That's fine, but it does consume roster space, which is valuable, and you have to hope you're picking the right guy on the right week each week to try and pace Kittle's production. Yes I said pace, that doesn't mean EVERY week production, but a pace of production.

You said "I would love to own him for the next few weeks but this is dynasty so I am looking at a longer view." You also equate him to a 2nd round pick value and say anyone valuing him more is overvaluing him...that would maybe be true if his career were only for the rest of this year. These thoughts coming from you are both strong indicators that you don't see Kittle ever really being productive again beyond this season. Is that your take?
If it isn't (that is to say, if you think he still has a good shot for elite years), then I simply can't understand this valuation. He's simply providing too much of an edge when healthy to be worth only a 2nd. And if your argument is "yeah but this is dynasty and I don't think Kittle will be around for much longer so only worth a 2nd," well he's 28 and yeah could get hurt but Kelce is 32. Is he only worth a 2nd as well to you because you can get a guy in his early 20s with a 2nd rounder?

I said this earlier, but I'll say it again here to ward off the generic "when healthy but he's never healthy" comment. He offers an advantage, but historically for less weeks than the other elite guys. For that reason I put him just below the other elites that are a lower injury risk, but above all TEs that don't provide that same potential to your lineup...which is about two other tight ends. Also...currently I've got him above Waller now, only below Kelce.
Repeating this too...I see value as more appropriately viewed by these variables: Expected points provided per start in your lineup, and a much harder to predict how often they'll be available to be in your lineup. You can rotate your lower expected points per game tight ends and consume more roster space on that position. I'll happily start the guy with a higher expected points per game output. You know...that thing that contributes to wins.

[Ice]

I can see there's no convincing you that you just might benefit from reconsidering your valuation...but I'm going to try again anyways.

You say you'd rather roster and rotate a few tight ends based on matchups than roster kittle. That's fine, but it does consume roster space, which is valuable, and you have to hope you're picking the right guy on the right week each week to try and pace Kittle's production. Yes I said pace, that doesn't mean EVERY week production, but a pace of production.

You said "I would love to own him for the next few weeks but this is dynasty so I am looking at a longer view." You also equate him to a 2nd round pick value and say anyone valuing him more is overvaluing him...that would maybe be true if his career were only for the rest of this year. These thoughts coming from you are both strong indicators that you don't see Kittle ever really being productive again beyond this season. Is that your take?
If it isn't (that is to say, if you think he still has a good shot for elite years), then I simply can't understand this valuation. He's simply providing too much of an edge when healthy to be worth only a 2nd. And if your argument is "yeah but this is dynasty and I don't think Kittle will be around for much longer so only worth a 2nd," well he's 28 and yeah could get hurt but Kelce is 32. Is he only worth a 2nd as well to you because you can get a guy in his early 20s with a 2nd rounder?

I said this earlier, but I'll say it again here to ward off the generic "when healthy but he's never healthy" comment. He offers an advantage, but historically for less weeks than the other elite guys. For that reason I put him just below the other elites that are a lower injury risk, but above all TEs that don't provide that same potential to your lineup...which is about two other tight ends. Also...currently I've got him above Waller now, only below Kelce.
Repeating this too...I see value as more appropriately viewed by these variables: Expected points provided per start in your lineup, and a much harder to predict how often they'll be available to be in your lineup. You can rotate your lower expected points per game tight ends and consume more roster space on that position. I'll happily start the guy with a higher expected points per game output. You know...that thing that contributes to wins.

While appreciate the effort the reality is I was actually trying to acquire Kittle for a pick that actually was E Moore. Kittle misses a ton of games and has had way more injuries than one should have at his age.

Expected points is fine but then again having those points only about 50% of the time is the real issue that most of you fail to recognize. The other issue not even being considered is average points per contest.

Granted Kittle had a great game in week 13 but looking at the first 12 weeks this season his average points were 11.92 which was 6th. The 11th ranked player was 10.46. Looking into this a bit further the 11th ranked player put up 2 zeros yet was only 1.46 points behind on weekly average.

Kittle is good but his actual consistency is really no better than the pack in the top 10. He is also a serious injury risk to miss games every year.

If you suck at evaluating talent between 1.7 an 2.5 then by all means spend high capital on an older injury risk and pay the premium.

I actually think it is an extremely poor play to overpay for injury prone type players. I feel the same way about CMC or Barkley. Sure like them when on the field but I would rather my studs actually play.

Kittle was a stud in 2018/2019. It is now much closer to 2022.

Receptions per year.
2017 43 2 TD
2018 88 5 TD
2019 85 5 TD
2020 48 2 TD
2021 44 5 TD on pace for 62 if he stays healthy.

Only season to play 16 games 2018.

As far as advantages; I agree he has the ability to have great games. He has put up 7 total games since 2019 at plus 20 points out of a possible 44 games. 3 in 2019, 2 in 2020, 2 this season. That said that production is pretty spotty overall. In that same span he also put up 8 games under 9 points.

While he was Elite in 2018 and 2019 it is a stretch to sell that he is still Elite given his actual game history in game or on the side lines.

Never questioned his talent. He is very talented but his risk ratio is simply overlooked by many trying sell him as an elite player these days. He has plenty of good games, plenty of bad games, and he misses a lot of games.

Not blaming anyone if they can get a first but his actual value is lower than his perceived value when one studies all aspects of this player vs what can be had instead with draft capital in the 1.7 to 2.5 range.

The roster space argument is really a red herring given all roster at least 2 TE's and I would contend many in leagues with 22 spots will roster 3 as they look for the next big thing.

The value is more based on Potential Elite young players vs a player like Kittle who has had 2 elite seasons way back in 2018 and 2019.

The overriding point is make sure you know what you are getting. The Caveat emptor principle is fast approaching for a player like Kittle.

There is a cliff out there; Is that cliff going to happen with injury 10 or 11? In the end it all about how much risk one will tolerate with this player to get a couple of elite games per season.

[Mike11]

Every player, even tight ends have injury worries, look at Waller, Logan Thomas and Dawson Knox this year. The reality is, not many of them can put up 150 and at least 1 TD on back to back weeks or even once in the year.

Kittle up to 6 receiving TDs (most was 5, I remember TDs being a gripe here) on the year and is now TE3 on the year even with his missed game.

[Cameron Giles]

Every player, even tight ends have injury worries, look at Waller, Logan Thomas and Dawson Knox this year. The reality is, not many of them can put up 150 and at least 1 TD on back to back weeks or even once in the year.

Kittle up to 6 receiving TDs (most was 5, I remember TDs being a gripe here) on the year and is now TE3 on the year even with his missed game.

Getting my high 2nd round pick ready to buy

[Jigga94]

Every player, even tight ends have injury worries, look at Waller, Logan Thomas and Dawson Knox this year. The reality is, not many of them can put up 150 and at least 1 TD on back to back weeks or even once in the year.

Kittle up to 6 receiving TDs (most was 5, I remember TDs being a gripe here) on the year and is now TE3 on the year even with his missed game.

Missed game(S). He's missed 3 so far this year! Completely inexcusable. How am I supposed to survive those weeks? Just plug another TE into my lineup?

FYI, he's TE1 in PPG

[murphysxm]

I would trade my 2.01 for an elite upside TE all day long.

[Ice]

Every player, even tight ends have injury worries, look at Waller, Logan Thomas and Dawson Knox this year. The reality is, not many of them can put up 150 and at least 1 TD on back to back weeks or even once in the year.

Kittle up to 6 receiving TDs (most was 5, I remember TDs being a gripe here) on the year and is now TE3 on the year even with his missed game.

Getting my high 2nd round pick ready to buy

Thought this was a Dynasty Site. Maybe you're lost in a redraft Group Think Mindset?

No doubt as stated, Kittle will have some Elite Games. He certainly had another one as he has finally eclipsed his career high in TD's for a season at the young age of 28.

Since 2019 he has had Three (3) 30 plus point efforts. While his owners should be very happy the last 2 weeks; I wouldn't get too excited that he has had his best 2 back to back games of his entire career against 2 teams that struggle to cover TE's.

This too shall pass!