Hunter Henry

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
ImaRounder
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1296
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:54 am

Madadamus, yes on almost every point. He is someone I see digressing this year, not progressing. I think he will be a fine TE in the league but like you said at a mid first price I just couldn't pass up the sell opportunity.

And there was a point about two months ago where his price was higher. Before people realized how talented this class was. It was before mcshay started saying OJ was a top 10 prospect possibly going to the Jets. His price continued to drop after the chargers drafted Mike Williams.

User avatar
Needalife
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2870
Joined: Tue Jul 16, 2013 5:20 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Needalife » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:07 am

In my startup this year, I traded Rookie 1.10 to move into the 4th round of the vet draft to get Henry in TE premium to give a sense of value. Then I later flipped him for 1.04 which I then flipped for 1.05/2.08.... In the end, I moved 1.10 for what ended up being Corey Davis @ 1.05 and Gerald Everett @ 2.08. Worked out well for me. Henry definitely has a lot of hype and now is a good time to cash in, though I do think he'll be quite good.
TEAM 1 - 12 TEAM PPR TE PREMIUM - 1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / 1 TE / 3 FX / 1 DL / 2 LB / 2 DB / 1 DFX
QB: Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones
RB: Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Austen Ekeler, Boston Scott, Corey Clement, Gio Bernard, Traveon Williams
WR: Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Courtland Suttion, Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
TE: Hunter Henry, Dallas Goedert, Ian Thomas, Logan Thomas, Drew Sample, Cole Kmet
DL: Josh Allen, Jason Pierre-Paul
LB: Darius Leonard, Jayon Brown, Leighton Vander Esch, Matt Milano, De'Vondre Campbell, Shaq Barrett, Foyesade Oluokon
DB: Jordan Poyer, Tracy Walker, Jeremy Chinn, Xavier McKinney, Karl Joseph
2021 PICKS: 2nd

ImaRounder
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1296
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:08 am

Needalife wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:07 am
In my startup this year, I traded Rookie 1.10 to move into the 4th round of the vet draft to get Henry in TE premium to give a sense of value. Then I later flipped him for 1.04 which I then flipped for 1.05/2.08.... In the end, I moved 1.10 for what ended up being Corey Davis @ 1.05 and Gerald Everett @ 2.08. Worked out well for me. Henry definitely has a lot of hype and now is a good time to cash in, though I do think he'll be quite good.
That's the type of sell high I'm talking about. Wow great value.

User avatar
moishetreats
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5011
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:37 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby moishetreats » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:27 am

If you always "sold high" on players, then you'd never have any good players -- let alone studs -- on your team. You sell high when you think that the value is about to drop precipitously. When you have a stud (or likely stud player), you don't look to move him: you look to win a championship.

Keep Henry.
www.fantasyfootballforever.com - SF/2QB website

10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Wilson, Wentz, Rodgers, Love
RB: Mixon, Gurley, Montgomery, Dillon, Moss, Armstead
WR: Hill, Cooper, Lockett, Hilton, Anderson, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Sims, Ward, Renfrow
TE: Kelce, Goedert, Jarwin, Sternberger, K Smith, Arnold, L Thomas

2021: 2ndx3, 3rdx2, 4thx2, 5th
2022: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Stafford ($36 through 2022), Brady (43), Rodgers (28/21), Garappolo (5/20), Winston (3/24), K Allen (1/20) [Morgan (1/24), Luton (1/24), Gordon (1/24)]
RB: Mixon (29/23), Gurley (5/20), Dillon (12/24), Z Moss (10/24), Hines (1/20), Snell (1/20) [Perine (2/22)]
WR: Adams (31/22), Cooper (28/20), Kupp (3/21), AJ Brown (7/23), R Anderson (3/21), Ward (1/20)
TE: Kelce (28/21), Ertz (22/21), Goedert (8/22)
Total+dead cap hits $286

ImaRounder
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1296
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:29 am

moishetreats wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:27 am
If you always "sold high" on players, then you'd never have any good players -- let alone studs -- on your team. You sell high when you think that the value is about to drop precipitously. When you have a stud (or likely stud player), you don't look to move him: you look to win a championship.

Keep Henry.
Yeah the difference is, I don't think Henry will ever be a stud.....?

User avatar
ajmyk
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1038
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:44 am

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ajmyk » Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:07 am

Madadamus wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am
I think he is a glaring sell high as well, sold all of my shares this year. I was a fan of him, but when his ADP and value was creeping up into the mid 1st round it was clear to me it was time to cash out. We only paid late 2nd prices to acquire him last year in a much weaker class, getting pretty much any 1st is good value to me.

Look, I ike Henry a lot, but I don't think he is going to be a difference making TE. All of the top 3 TE's this year are much better prospects coming out, and I would even put Everett and Shaheen right there with him. People were all over his situation, and while it is nice, I don't think it's as good as it was years ago. Allen was hurt all of last year, and they were pretty weak at WR which is evident with a top 10 selection of Mike Williams. A healthy Allen is going to command targets. Mike Williams will certainly sap some of that red zone production, and I just think we were extrapolating Henry's stats if he was playing all the snaps and I just think it's not a smart thing to do.

Could he be the next Witten or dominant TE? Certainly, but I'd rather hedge my bet and cash out for a 1st in a deep class.

I sold him in two deals earlier this off-season:

Gave: Hunter Henry
Received: 2018 1st (could be anywhere but I project it in the 1.05ish range)

Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee
Well i wouldn't call that "hedging". Henry might not have a huge potential, but even if he just ends up a poor man Witten it's safer than any random 1st round pick. (Unless you sell the pick of course)
1. 14-teamer, .5 PPR, 2 Flex, 16 keepers
QB :Palmer, Bridgewater, RG3
RB : Gurley, Hyde, Yeldon, McKinnon
WR: Dez, Jeffery, Evans, Watkins, Marshall, Diggs, Sharpe
TE : Eifert, ASJ,
IDP : Mosley, Olegtree, Collins &Stuff


2. 12-teamer, standard, 6 PTD, full dynasty
QB: Rodgers, Bortles, Petty
RB : McCoy, Forsett, Spiller, Lewis, KRob, Ridley, Haynes
WR : Julio, AJ Green, Tate, Latimer, Lee
TE : Gronk , Hill, Chandler

User avatar
maxhyde
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 10732
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 10:06 pm
Location: Nashville

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby maxhyde » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:51 pm

ajmyk wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:07 am
Madadamus wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am
I think he is a glaring sell high as well, sold all of my shares this year. I was a fan of him, but when his ADP and value was creeping up into the mid 1st round it was clear to me it was time to cash out. We only paid late 2nd prices to acquire him last year in a much weaker class, getting pretty much any 1st is good value to me.

Look, I ike Henry a lot, but I don't think he is going to be a difference making TE. All of the top 3 TE's this year are much better prospects coming out, and I would even put Everett and Shaheen right there with him. People were all over his situation, and while it is nice, I don't think it's as good as it was years ago. Allen was hurt all of last year, and they were pretty weak at WR which is evident with a top 10 selection of Mike Williams. A healthy Allen is going to command targets. Mike Williams will certainly sap some of that red zone production, and I just think we were extrapolating Henry's stats if he was playing all the snaps and I just think it's not a smart thing to do.

Could he be the next Witten or dominant TE? Certainly, but I'd rather hedge my bet and cash out for a 1st in a deep class.

I sold him in two deals earlier this off-season:

Gave: Hunter Henry
Received: 2018 1st (could be anywhere but I project it in the 1.05ish range)

Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee
Well i wouldn't call that "hedging". Henry might not have a huge potential, but even if he just ends up a poor man Witten it's safer than any random 1st round pick. (Unless you sell the pick of course)
Yeah I think I disagree with the idea that if he isn't a stud sell him especially at positions that carry relatively little value outside elites (QB/TE). Now if anyone is offering top 6 picks for a TE in non TE premium leagues sell away. If you are swapping him for Howard/Engram/Njoku because "freak athlete" gets written beside them that risk is all on you and good luck.
As for the prediction of regression how about this scenario, Gates gets hurt misses 6-10 games and Allen is...well at this point the surprise will be Allen NOT getting hurt. Now the Chargers are down to a rookie WR and old reliable no flash Henry along with their backup WR's
Just as likely as a major regression imo and seems like Rivers has always been pretty good at finding a TE in the red zone...those are historical trends I would be more likely to use in predictions
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

User avatar
Servo
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1872
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:17 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Servo » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

This was posted to a TE thread a little while back:

"One statistical measure does seem to foreshadow a strong career: touchdown rate. Generally speaking, we were able to spot off the bat the handful of tight ends who were valued highly for their red zone ability – and those guys went on to strong NFL careers at an impressive rate. All told, the rookie TEs who (a) drew at least 30 targets and (b) posted touchdown rates of 10% or better boil down to the following 14 names:
HH.png
HH
HH.png (5.49 KiB) Viewed 452 times
Definitely some lackluster names here but also some of the best TEs in the game, so take it with some salt.
Trucking Through The Fantasy Mud, One Year At a Time.

12-Man, 0.5PPR, Superflex, Start 9
2016 - Runner Up
2017 - Champion
2018 - Champion
2019 - lol


Mahomes, Stafford, Lock, Mariota, Tyrod
Dobbins, D. Williams, Mostert, Kerryon, B. Hill, Hines, Love, Laird, Perine NYJ
Hopkins, Allen, Thielen, Mims, Cooks, Fitz, Perriman, Ross
Kelce, Kittle

User avatar
Madadamus
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1805
Joined: Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:40 pm
Location: MD

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Madadamus » Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:51 pm

ajmyk wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:07 am
Madadamus wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am
I think he is a glaring sell high as well, sold all of my shares this year. I was a fan of him, but when his ADP and value was creeping up into the mid 1st round it was clear to me it was time to cash out. We only paid late 2nd prices to acquire him last year in a much weaker class, getting pretty much any 1st is good value to me.

Look, I ike Henry a lot, but I don't think he is going to be a difference making TE. All of the top 3 TE's this year are much better prospects coming out, and I would even put Everett and Shaheen right there with him. People were all over his situation, and while it is nice, I don't think it's as good as it was years ago. Allen was hurt all of last year, and they were pretty weak at WR which is evident with a top 10 selection of Mike Williams. A healthy Allen is going to command targets. Mike Williams will certainly sap some of that red zone production, and I just think we were extrapolating Henry's stats if he was playing all the snaps and I just think it's not a smart thing to do.

Could he be the next Witten or dominant TE? Certainly, but I'd rather hedge my bet and cash out for a 1st in a deep class.

I sold him in two deals earlier this off-season:

Gave: Hunter Henry
Received: 2018 1st (could be anywhere but I project it in the 1.05ish range)

Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee
Well i wouldn't call that "hedging". Henry might not have a huge potential, but even if he just ends up a poor man Witten it's safer than any random 1st round pick. (Unless you sell the pick of course)
[/quot

I mean, I would. I invested in him with mid-to-late 2nd round picks in a much weaker class. Cashing out for a 1st is clear profit and gives you much more flexibility in my opinion. How many TE's fetch a 1st? Take a look at a guy like Zach Ertz, who profiles pretty similarly. They are the same size and although Henry is a little better metric wise, they both have the same draft pedigree and posted very similar rookie seasons. Ertz has progressed each year and has back to back 75 catch 800+ yard seasons and yet he doesn't get a 1st in my leagues.

I also wouldn't say ending up as a poor man's Witten is basically the worst case scenario. For 2017 he doesn't project to be a fantasy starter in standard leagues, so I'm not sure his value will increase any unless he nearly doubles his reception totals. As said above, with the influx of TE talent entering the league, I think his value will suffer because it was already propped up to begin with due to lack of options at the position.

So basically, I'll take a future 1st for him because a year from now I am sure you can buy him for that because the market for TE's is never a big one. Hell, I was on the clock in multiple leagues at 1.05 and was offered Kelce straight up. Obviously the 1.05 is a bit different this year, but still, my point is that his value is basically at his peak because we are projecting all this progression from him when he really just scored a lot of touchdowns as a rookie. He will have to severely outperform expectations in 2017 to rise in value in my opinion. I'd rather invest in a guy like Everett or Shaheen for a 3rd round value and flip Henry for a producer at RB or WR in his range, but that's just my strategy.
12 Team PPR Dynasty - DLFS
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 QB/RB/WR/TE, 1 TE
QB: C. Wentz, T. Brady, B. Mayfield, T. Bridgewater
RB: S. Barkley, E. Elliott, C. Edwards-Helaire, K. Drake, D. Swift, J.K. Dobbins, A. Gibson, D. Harris, G. Edwards
WR: M. Evans, D. Adams, O. Beckham Jr., J. Reagor, B. Aiyuk, W. Fuller, C. Davis, E. Sanders, B. Perriman, R. Cobb
TE: D. Waller, N. Fant, H. Hurst, D. Njoku, E. Ebron, J. Akins
2021 Picks: 2nd (early)

12 Team PPR Dynasty
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 QB/RB/WR/TE, 1 TE
QB: M. Stafford, R. Fitzpatrick, D. Lock, J. Herbert, M. Mariota, J. Stidham
RB: C. McCaffrey, E. Elliott, A. Kamara, J. Mixon, J.K. Dobbins, L. Bell, A. Mattison, J. White
WR: O. Beckham Jr., D.J. Moore, T.Y. Hilton, J. Jeudy, D. Parker, C. Davis, C. Claypool, L. Fitzgerald, B. Perriman, W. Snead
TE: E. Engram, C. Herndon, C. Kmet

Cameron Giles
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9756
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:55 am

GhostOfMasoli wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm
This was posted to a TE thread a little while back:

"One statistical measure does seem to foreshadow a strong career: touchdown rate. Generally speaking, we were able to spot off the bat the handful of tight ends who were valued highly for their red zone ability – and those guys went on to strong NFL careers at an impressive rate. All told, the rookie TEs who (a) drew at least 30 targets and (b) posted touchdown rates of 10% or better boil down to the following 14 names:

HH.png

Definitely some lackluster names here but also some of the best TEs in the game, so take it with some salt.
This doesn't really tell me anything. The TE position is interesting though because there's not really a metric or stat that's reliable for long-term projection. And that's probably because so much more goes into it than catching the football. I think Henry is more polished at those things than a typical young TE is, which should be encouraging long-term. That's likely why his dynasty price is positionally high.

ImaRounder
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1296
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ImaRounder » Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:09 am

That's kind of my point Cameron, what if we are seeing his peak? I get that Gates is stealing some snaps (probably closer to splitting snaps this year) but the majority of game changing TEs are above average athletically. Gronk, Kelce, Graham, Reed, Eifert are just different types of players when I watch them as opposed to Henry. Also, I have that 2nd or 3rd tier being a mile wide.

Chris_R
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2790
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2011 3:54 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Chris_R » Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:00 am

Madadamus wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am


Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee
If you think now is the time to sell high why would you do this? So you moved up from 2.4 to 1.12 (projected) a year out and gave up potentially a top 5 dynasty TE to do so and only got Gillislee? I'd just rather trade him for a 1st to somebody if you wanted to move him like the other deal. This doesn't seem like like getting very much value.
12 Team ppr Dynasty IDP
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, RB/WR, WR/TE, 1 TE, 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 2 DL/LB/DB

QB: Andrew Luck/
RB: Nick Chubb/Josh Jacobs/D'Onta Foreman/Chris Warren
WR: Odell Beckham/Juju Smith-Schuster/Sammy Watkins/Michael Gallup/Kenny Stills/Antonio Calloway/Marques Valdes Scantling/Dante Pettis/Trequan Smith/Eq St Brown/J'Mon Moore
TE: Trey Burton/Dallas Goedert/Gerald Everett

DL: Joey Bosa/Khalil Mack
LB: Leighton Vander Esch/Tremaine Edmunds/Blake Martinez/Telvin Smith/Sean Lee
DB: Earl Thomas/Keanu Neal/Minkah Fitzpatrick/John Johnson


Picks: 1.1, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5

User avatar
maxhyde
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 10732
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 10:06 pm
Location: Nashville

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby maxhyde » Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:46 am

I think this depends on what you are selling for. If you are getting mid-1sts in PPR leagues then it is fair. In TE premium I think you are probably breaking even at best...guys that show a knack for the end zone early are pretty good gambles at most positions imo but especially at TE where catches and yards are generally less.

Lots of those 2nd and 3rd tier TE's have not been very reliable to this point so yes the tier is a long and wide but lots of it is projected growth and guys we want to be good but haven't quite done it yet. Witten is still a better buy than most of those guys
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

Cameron Giles
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9756
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:32 am

ImaRounder wrote:
Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:09 am
That's kind of my point Cameron, what if we are seeing his peak? I get that Gates is stealing some snaps (probably closer to splitting snaps this year) but the majority of game changing TEs are above average athletically. Gronk, Kelce, Graham, Reed, Eifert are just different types of players when I watch them as opposed to Henry. Also, I have that 2nd or 3rd tier being a mile wide.
If you can get good value it's worth considering. But, from what I've seen of Henry I wouldn't sell him just to sell him either. His ceiling isn't Gronk, but he's a very high floor TE with all-around upside.

User avatar
clarion contrarion
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4953
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 4:11 am

Re: Hunter Henry

Postby clarion contrarion » Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:23 am

sloth8u wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:56 am
if your in a knowledgeable league.....you may have missed your greatest opportunity if strictly looking at a sell high. my guess is that your looking more at "fair value" or "filling a hole" right now. (as mentioned above). i wouldnt let him get in the way of landing a stud right now....maybe you could call that a sell high if someone is overvaluing him. for most teams....they either were asking for too much a few weeks ago, and are still asking for the same, as his "value" has fallen....or are content to hold a te prospect in hopes of the next gronk. (we've all been chasing him for years :))

op...you really would have to show us something, so that we could give an opinion. i would gladly sell him for olsen and martin.... id likely take 1.5 for him in a heartbeat....but im not sure those offers are out there. and quite honestly, some hh owners would think that they are losing those deals.
pretty much this , drafted him 22nd 2:6 in a 16 teamer for sig team , I traded him last november with what turned out to be 1:16 for shady mccoy who helped me finish the deal . Regardless of how he turns out the skin is on the wall so no regrets .
.....this has been a public service announcement from forum superstar clarion contrarion
QB luck- driskell
WR ant brown evans c davis golladay godwin gordon j washington doctson watson lazard patrick henderson
RB mixon cohen chubb aaron jones hunt malcolm brown
TE eifert howard njoku
K tucker DEF pittsburgh chicago
2012 , 2014 2015 2016 2017 & 2018 ACDL Champion 5 IN A ROW 6 in 7 years- now that is dynasty!
2013 ACDL runner up
2013 2014 2017 & 2018 (Undefeated 15-0 ) WORILDS OF HURT CHAMPION
2010 2014 & 2015 7 Rings for Steeltown CHAMPION 2011 & 2013 7 rings runner up
2018 Experts Dynasty League Champion
there is no after football
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.
— Leonardo da Vinci


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider], bjd5211, blemly, dlf_mikeh, StripesOfKC and 5 guests