Hunter Henry

[clarion contrarion]

Do you understand kelces upside now ? And this isn't the first time. First 1000 yard season though an only 3rd year te. I personally think kelce is the TE1

Gotta agree with this.
Gronk is just so unreliable due to his injuries.
Kelce is young and producing good #'s with a qb who loves throwing to his TE.

you do understand that kelce is older than gronk right ? albeit w/o the extensive injury history
prior to the latest run of 5 100 yard games out of 6
he had 3 such games in 2 and 1/2 seasons . Watch how belichick takes him away and that could be the plan going forward.

[Cherokee]

agree about hodges ^^ I was just working the arkansas angle but this TE class is the best I can remember period !
where would hunter rank in this class ? Impossible to say since he went a year early but I doubt he would be 1st in this class let alone in all of dynasty .

My team 2 has the 2nd 3rd 11th 12th and 24th picks. Im targeting TEs at 11 and 12. Hoping Howard and Evans are there. Then Jake Butt TE again at 24. Id rank Henry even with Butt behind Engram and Howard.

Is this a TE Premium league? That's a lot of TE's your planning to draft in this class. 3 in the top 24, 2 in the top 12

Not TE Pre. I only own Gates and Lad Green. I also see Engram as a WR/Reed TE. So getting Howard(TE) Engram(Slash) and Butt(TE)sets me up long term hopefully. Ill grab Cook or Fournette at 2 and Davis at 3. These RBs that arent top 30 draft picks just dont make any sense to take anymore. Just take shots in the 4th and 5th at rb position and trade for proven guys in season

[Cherokee]

Do you understand kelces upside now ? And this isn't the first time. First 1000 yard season though an only 3rd year te. I personally think kelce is the TE1

Gotta agree with this.
Gronk is just so unreliable due to his injuries.
Kelce is young and producing good #'s with a qb who loves throwing to his TE.

you do understand that kelce is older than gronk right ? albeit w/o the extensive injury history
prior to the latest run of 5 100 yard games out of 6
he had 3 such games in 2 and 1/2 seasons . Watch how belichick takes him away and that could be the plan going forward.

Everyone should know Kelce that has terrible knees. Look into a little and you'll find that they could go at any second.

[heyfeefellskee]

Tight ends almost never have a clean injury history. If that's one of your factors in a tight end, good luck finding another Greg Olsen--that almost never ever happens.

Kelce doesn't have a clean injury history, btw. Also do not understand how he is a "no" for upside. Have you seen any of his games this year?


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[Phaded]

Gates expected to return next year - combine that with the return of Keenan Allen and that'll put a damper on Henry's "immediate" production.

[Lssd2012]

While Gates looming return certainly puts a damper on Hunter, I wouldn't be so sure that Gates is even the starter going into next year. If Henry is as talented as we all think, no reason why he isn't the full time starter next year while Gates becomes even more of a situational guy.

[moishetreats]

OP here. Thank you for all the amazing comments and analysis.

Some thoughts, in no particular order.

1) I need to go back and examine Kelce more. I'm concerned about his TD production, but it's a fair argument that he could/should be considered in that #1 slot.

2) Re: Henry's production, I did have the "ish" at the end of "yes". I'm impressed by the TDs but not [yet] worried that he is the next Kyle Rudolph. His comp coming into the league was Witten. But, Witten never got into the end zone. If Witten had been a red zone target, then he'd be in the conversation for GOAT as a fantasy football TE. Obviously, Henry ain't there. But, the possibility is plausible enough.

3) As a dynasty TE, I don't care too much if next year is a time-share with Gates.

To summarize, while I do need to go back and look at Kelce more, I'm growing more confident with Henry as the #1 (or #2) dynasty TE over the other presumed top-5. Again, I'm not looking at 2017 but from a start-up perspective. In a win-now championship team, it's Gronk and only Gronk, and I'd have others ahead of Henry for 2017. But, as a dynasty TE... I think that I'd rather have Henry.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Henry seems like a clone of Rudolph. Nice TE, but not #1 TE material.

[ImaRounder]

Does anybody else think this would be a fantastic sell high opportunity for Henry? To me this screams great situation with not as much talent. Plenty of mouths to feed out in LA.. what do you think?

[osubuckeyeman]

Maybe just a sell opportunity. I think he is a good player in a good offense and Gates can't last forever. He has a bright future and really the good offenses in the league have a lot of mouths to feed. It seems like fantasy owners like to see only one or two options in an offense which does not make a lot of sense to me. I think that can be a whole other topic to discuss. I do think if you are set at TE and need another piece then sure he is a good sell to help acquire another piece you might need. I could see Henry involved in a lot of trades moving forward. I don't think he is a classic sell high though. He has only played one season and is more a sell on potential.

[DinoDynasty]

I am a big Henry fan and was lucky to land him with the 2.8 last year. I think his current ADP, being TE #5, is going to be hard to top though going forward given the influx of TE talent coming into the league.

I am pretty set at TE (sig 1 team), and am considering moving Hunter + 2018 2nd for J Thomas + 2018 1st. I think if you can get a future first for him, its good value, since that's where players who are seen as better talents at the position are going this year.

Overall I think we will see the number of consistent TEs grow over the next 2-3 years, decreasing the scarcity at the position and the premium we are used to with the top 1-3 guys.

[ajmyk]

I actually exepted him to be overrated going in the 40's of ADP and to be in the top 3 of TE's.

But he actually goes in the 70's after OJ Howard.
At this price, i am buying, i think he had a very nice rookie season for a TE, as much as we don't except TE to produce as rookie we should on the other end take notice when they do, especially on limited opportunities.

In my most start-up I actually took Henry over Howard. (There were both available after Olsen and Eifert were gone)

[sloth8u]

if your in a knowledgeable league.....you may have missed your greatest opportunity if strictly looking at a sell high. my guess is that your looking more at "fair value" or "filling a hole" right now. (as mentioned above). i wouldnt let him get in the way of landing a stud right now....maybe you could call that a sell high if someone is overvaluing him. for most teams....they either were asking for too much a few weeks ago, and are still asking for the same, as his "value" has fallen....or are content to hold a te prospect in hopes of the next gronk. (we've all been chasing him for years )

op...you really would have to show us something, so that we could give an opinion. i would gladly sell him for olsen and martin.... id likely take 1.5 for him in a heartbeat....but im not sure those offers are out there. and quite honestly, some hh owners would think that they are losing those deals.

[maxhyde]

Does anybody else think this would be a fantastic sell high opportunity for Henry? To me this screams great situation with not as much talent. Plenty of mouths to feed out in LA.. what do you think?

While I think Henry is probably a sell high I really don't see a drastic shift downward in his value coming anytime soon. I mean he came out and performed well as a rookie and scored some TD's at a position that typically doesn't contribute early. Gates will steal some thunder sure but while I might be willing to swap him for Howard I would keep him over the others in this class.
While I don't think he is a freak athlete or anything he is a very effective TE...I think he reminds me alot of Jason Witten. Underrated and undervalued because he isn't flashy...just effective and efficient.
Now ask yourself what would you have paid for Jason Witten back in the day and would you sell him knowing you had a TE that was going to keep you competitive at the position for 10+ years?

[Madadamus]

I think he is a glaring sell high as well, sold all of my shares this year. I was a fan of him, but when his ADP and value was creeping up into the mid 1st round it was clear to me it was time to cash out. We only paid late 2nd prices to acquire him last year in a much weaker class, getting pretty much any 1st is good value to me.

Look, I ike Henry a lot, but I don't think he is going to be a difference making TE. All of the top 3 TE's this year are much better prospects coming out, and I would even put Everett and Shaheen right there with him. People were all over his situation, and while it is nice, I don't think it's as good as it was years ago. Allen was hurt all of last year, and they were pretty weak at WR which is evident with a top 10 selection of Mike Williams. A healthy Allen is going to command targets. Mike Williams will certainly sap some of that red zone production, and I just think we were extrapolating Henry's stats if he was playing all the snaps and I just think it's not a smart thing to do.

Could he be the next Witten or dominant TE? Certainly, but I'd rather hedge my bet and cash out for a 1st in a deep class.

I sold him in two deals earlier this off-season:

Gave: Hunter Henry
Received: 2018 1st (could be anywhere but I project it in the 1.05ish range)

Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee