NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Jigga94
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5302
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Jigga94 » Wed May 22, 2019 3:29 am

jenkins.math wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:55 pm
Not sure where I heard/read this but only 1 QB has won a super bowl with a contract worth more than 13% of the cap and that was Peyton Manning at 13.3%.

Found that nugget interesting.
They should just say no QB has won over a 13.3% cap level then
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Luck, Baker, Tannehill
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ekeler, K. Dixon, Hines, Samuels, CJA, Ware
WR: Tyreek, Julio, Cooks, D.J. Moore, C. Davis, MVS, Hamilton, Washington, ESB
TE: Henry, Njoku, Herndon, Hooper
2019 Picks: 3.08, 3.10, 6...

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Baker, Cam, Jimmy G, Foles
RB: CMC, Kerryon, A. Jones, Hunt, J. Samuels, M. Brown
WR: D.J. Moore, Landry, Mike Will, P. Campbell, Pettis, Fuller, MVS, Hamilton, Gallup, M. Lee
TE: Henry, Hockenson, Herndon, Andrews, Goedert
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3

Online
User avatar
Pac_Eddy
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2851
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 7:12 pm

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed May 22, 2019 4:13 am

Good topic.

I, like others, think QBs are worth what they're getting paid, including Kirk Cousins. Blaming a rough 2018 season on him is pretty topical as it's clearly the o-line that sunk the team. When he had decent blocking in the beginning of the season, he played really well.

I'd much rather have a good, high salaried QB than be one of the teams searching for a reliable starter, reaching in the draft and/or paying decent money for the hottest free agent.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

ericanadian
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4547
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:13 pm

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby ericanadian » Wed May 22, 2019 4:23 am

So Drew Brees’ contract is responsible for one of the worst blown calls I’ve ever seen? New England is seriously tilting the data in this case. Yes, Brady takes less, which allows the team to leverage that against the rest of the team along with their being willing to move on from anyone. It’s not a viable strategy for the rest of the league because Brady is the only guy willing to do this while being an elite QB.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Mariota, Stafford, Carr
RB - Gordon, Martin, Penny, Foreman, Guice, Zenner
WR - Julio, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel, Lee
TE - Kelce, Henry, Andrews, I. Thomas
LB - Kuechly, J. Smith
DL - Ansah, Hunter, Hurst
DB - D. James, Baker, Berry
K - Just a stupid kicker

Jigga94
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5302
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Jigga94 » Wed May 22, 2019 4:43 am

ericanadian wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 4:23 am
So Drew Brees’ contract is responsible for one of the worst blown calls I’ve ever seen? New England is seriously tilting the data in this case. Yes, Brady takes less, which allows the team to leverage that against the rest of the team along with their being willing to move on from anyone. It’s not a viable strategy for the rest of the league because Brady is the only guy willing to do this while being an elite QB.
Sure they are skewing the data, but the fact still remains that he was won MANY titles as an elite QB while taking a pay cut and improving the team. If Brady was paid 30M would the team around him he so good? I'd say no. Would he have as many titles? I'd say a few less but he's still a great QB...

It's not like 10M a year isn't a viable option to live off of IF you really wanted to help the team and win. I don't fault anyone for not doing it, but Mahomes on his rookie deal is going to have a much better team around him than Mahomes making 30+ per year. Is his skill level going to change from now until then? Probably not because he just won MVP... So... There's a fairly big disconnect between value there.

Flacco for example got paid AFTER he won the SB. Put the team in a much worse position financially and he was what the 20th best QB at the time? It was like the Ravens said, sure we probably won't find better so here you go Joe... And handcuffed themselves for several years to Average Joe.

I think the Dak comparison here is similar to Flacco. Cowboys won't have a better QB fall in their lap, but is a cheaper option more viable than paying a player 20-25% of the cap? Doesn't make sense logically when there are 52 players. Sure the QB is most important and that's what the market is paying them, but the data is still there...
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Luck, Baker, Tannehill
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ekeler, K. Dixon, Hines, Samuels, CJA, Ware
WR: Tyreek, Julio, Cooks, D.J. Moore, C. Davis, MVS, Hamilton, Washington, ESB
TE: Henry, Njoku, Herndon, Hooper
2019 Picks: 3.08, 3.10, 6...

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Baker, Cam, Jimmy G, Foles
RB: CMC, Kerryon, A. Jones, Hunt, J. Samuels, M. Brown
WR: D.J. Moore, Landry, Mike Will, P. Campbell, Pettis, Fuller, MVS, Hamilton, Gallup, M. Lee
TE: Henry, Hockenson, Herndon, Andrews, Goedert
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3

Ruggenater
Starter
Starter
Posts: 623
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:36 am

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Ruggenater » Wed May 22, 2019 5:53 am

Winning the Super Bowl is a really high threshold to be placing on this argument. Just look at the teams that are regularly winning their divisions and making the playoffs year after year and tell us that paying top QBs isn't worth it. Having a top QB makes you a contender every year--a lot of examples throughout this thread saying exactly that: Brees with the Saints, Rodgers with the Packers, Peyton Manning all those years with the Colts (and then Broncos), etc.
12 Team Superflex - PPR, 0.25 PPC - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/Superflex
QB: Rodgers, L Jackson, J Allen, Dalton, Tannehill
RB: Michel, Montgomery, L Miller, Foreman, Attison, Yeldon, Armstead, Dixon, Josh Adams
WR: Hopkins, Julio, A Robinson, Watkins, Lockett, Allison, K Cole
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Gesicki, J Smith

jenkins.math
Starter
Starter
Posts: 530
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:56 am

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby jenkins.math » Wed May 22, 2019 6:29 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 3:29 am
jenkins.math wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:55 pm
Not sure where I heard/read this but only 1 QB has won a super bowl with a contract worth more than 13% of the cap and that was Peyton Manning at 13.3%.

Found that nugget interesting.
They should just say no QB has won over a 13.3% cap level then
I believe they were trying to show that the one statistical outlier was an all time great at the position. Even so he was still extremely close to their baseline. At least that is how I interpreted it.
14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14, .5 PPR
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Darnold
RB: Barkley, Mark Ingram, Jerick McKinnon, Dion Lewis, Ito Smith, Jaylen Samuels, Alex Collins
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Cooks, Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, James Washington
TE: Jordan Reed, Njoku
K: Lutz
D/ST: Browns, Dolphins
DL: Cameron Jordan
LB: Kiko Alonso
DB: Derwin James

User avatar
murphysxm
Starter
Starter
Posts: 545
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2012 8:10 am

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby murphysxm » Wed May 22, 2019 6:47 am

No offense to the OP, but I completely disagree. The Pats have created a dynasty by creating an environment where they don't pay ANYONE and value the system and Bill's brain above all other. The salary cap is at a point that you can pay whatever you want for the most important position in football and just be fine.

17 of the top 20 NFL salaries belong to QB's. 17!

djeternal2
Starter
Starter
Posts: 572
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:52 am

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby djeternal2 » Wed May 22, 2019 7:37 am

I love the whole argument of "they should tell the QB to take x amt and if he doesn't let him walk and draft another". If only it were that easy. As someone mentioned earlier there aren't even 32 quality starting QBs in the league which is why teams reach for them in the first round. Just ask the Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Bears, etc how easy it is to find a quality QB.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Mariota, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, McKinnon, Foreman, I Smith, Ballage, CJA
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Pettis, Godwin, Callaway
TE - Rudolph, Gesicki

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, McKinnon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Z Jones, Gallup
TE - Njoku, Shaheen, Eifert, Herndon
DL - Watt, K Clark
LB - D Jones, R Evans
DB - K Neal, Edmunds

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph
RB - Dam Williams, J Howard, Crowell, Duke, AP, Gore, CAP, M Murphy, B Hill
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, Jaron Brown, Kumerow, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Shaheen, Firkser, Conklin

2020 1st - 2, 2020 2nd - 2, 2020 3rd - 0

FantasyFreak
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9486
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed May 22, 2019 8:04 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 3:28 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 9:42 pm
NoRiskItNoBiscuit wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:22 pm


he won on his rookie contract if I'm not mistaken
He did. He actually went to the only 2 Super Bowls he's been to on his rookie deal. Rodgers won on his 2nd contract, I believe.
Right but I don't think Arods 2nd contract was break the bank level because he had been sitting the first few years
No, it wasn't.

FantasyFreak
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9486
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed May 22, 2019 8:10 am

djeternal2 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 7:37 am
I love the whole argument of "they should tell the QB to take x amt and if he doesn't let him walk and draft another". If only it were that easy. As someone mentioned earlier there aren't even 32 quality starting QBs in the league which is why teams reach for them in the first round. Just ask the Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Bears, etc how easy it is to find a quality QB.
At some point, it makes sense. To pay an average to slightly above average QB elite money, just because he's asking for it, will guarantee your team is just a middle of the road team. As I stated, good college QB's don't grow on trees, especially ones you think will translate to the NFL. At a certain point, it is worth it to start over, though. If it takes an extra first round pick to move up in the first to get a guy who you think is close to the level of your current QB, you should do it IMO. Next year has a lot of QB talent coming out. I would argue it might be better for the Cowboys to pay an extra first to move up and draft one of Tua, Fromm, Herbert, Eason etc., as opposed to paying Dak 30 million dollars. Depending on how the college year plays out, it might not even cost an extra first, but we shall see.

grooner
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1841
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2012 10:01 am

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby grooner » Wed May 22, 2019 8:28 am

Ruggenater wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 5:53 am
Winning the Super Bowl is a really high threshold to be placing on this argument. Just look at the teams that are regularly winning their divisions and making the playoffs year after year and tell us that paying top QBs isn't worth it. Having a top QB makes you a contender every year--a lot of examples throughout this thread saying exactly that: Brees with the Saints, Rodgers with the Packers, Peyton Manning all those years with the Colts (and then Broncos), etc.
This. I don't think winning the SB should be the measure, but which teams regularly make the playoffs? I would argue that teams making the playoffs mostly have a high level qb, whether paid well or not.

User avatar
WhatWouldDitkaDo
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 10447
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:02 am

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Wed May 22, 2019 8:36 am

The root of the issue is that the majority of NFL fans don't understand this. If they see a franchise trading away a young "franchise" QB like Prescott or Trubisky or Goff, there will be backlash, and NFL owners want to keep those merchandise sales up.

Winning a Super Bowl is obviously a priority as well, but many owners would rather suffer a few years of mediocrity and early playoff exits as long as those performances keep ticket and merchandise sales up.
Kittles Pox | Championships: 2015, 2017
12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Lamar Miller, Elijah McGuire
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, David Moore, Doug Baldwin
TE: Travis Kelce, George Kittle | K: Stephen Gostkowski | DST: TEN
PS: Dante Pettis, Dallas Goedert | 2019 Picks: 2.06, 2.10, 3.01, 3.03 | 2020 Picks: 2nd

Online
User avatar
Pac_Eddy
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2851
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 7:12 pm

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed May 22, 2019 8:37 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:10 am
To pay an average to slightly above average QB elite money, just because he's asking for it, will guarantee your team is just a middle of the road team.
I don't think having an average QB guarantees a middle of the road team. It sure seems like the odds are against though. The Ravens have a real chance to win with that defense.

What you may be thinking of is QB purgatory - you're just good enough to never have a top 10 pick, but bad enough to not make a deep playoff run or be a Super Bowl contender. And I agree, probably better to use a couple firsts to get in position for a top rookie than pay a lot for your average QB.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

User avatar
maxhyde
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 10672
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 10:06 pm
Location: Nashville

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby maxhyde » Wed May 22, 2019 8:38 am

I think the days where you could win a SB with a mediocre QB are gone and were rare even in the past. You have to have a good to great QB to compete in the NFL today. QB's get paid because they are critical to a team's success...Wentz and Goff have to be licking their chops and hoping Dak gets $30M.
The Pats/Brady are the outlier. Belichick has made them a perennial contender and does anyone doubt he would do it with or without Brady? Maybe not all the SB's but a consistent contender? I have no doubt he could make the playoffs with Hoyer if he had to.
I think lots of teams have a loyalty to players that impedes judgement sometimes where that doesn't really happen with the Pats. Giving out mega-deals always makes headlines but not always the playoffs. I think paying some of the other positional players when they get injured or just don't play to their level of pay absolutely crushes teams chances to be competitive for years. The Pats avoid most of that by understanding the players that are key to their success and the amount they have to pay them.
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

User avatar
Servo
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1547
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:17 pm

Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Servo » Wed May 22, 2019 9:05 am

Another issue is...should PHI, DAL, LAR, etc. trade or let their current QB go...will that coach have enough time to even groom the rookie heir?

Garrett? He's a wanted man every year...hard to believe he'd last.

Pederson and McVay, I'd be hard pressed to think they haven't played themselves into long contracts with their success...unless the wheels just truly fly off.
Trucking Through The Fantasy Mud, One Year At a Time.

12-Man, 0.5PPR, Superflex, Start 9
2016 - Runner Up
2017 - Champion
2018 - Champion


Mahomes, Stafford, Mariota, Flacco, Lock
Kerryon, Williams KCC, Hines, Love, Ozigbo, Adams, Barber, Burkhead, Martin, McGuire, Montgomery, Riddick, Wilson Jr.
Allen, Cooks, Fitzgerald, Hopkins, Thielen, Ross, Allison, Hamilton, Lasley
Kelce, Kittle


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CGW, Pac_Eddy, Trident and 12 guests