NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

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NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Lumps » Tue May 21, 2019 7:21 pm

This is something that has been immensely frustrating to me for quite some time. It feels like everyone has bought into, perpetuates, and does Olympic level mental gymnastics to justify one simple problem.... QBs are paid too much.
The Quarterback Trap is part Catch-22, part carnivorous plant, part kindergarten finger puzzle. Its mechanisms are simple. NFL teams cannot maintain success without excellent quarterback play. But excellent quarterback play is usually so expensive that it prevents NFL teams from maintaining success.

So far, teams have discovered only two reliable escape routes from the Quarterback Trap:

1. Win before your quarterback becomes expensive, ideally while he's still under his rookie contract.
2. Employ Tom Brady.
https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/ ... p.amp.html

It just seems to me that, basically what people are saying is...to win, you need more value from the QB than you are paying them. So constantly dishing out max money for a QB won't do that...I'm putting my Packers in there. Because at that point you are telling the QB, you gotta do more to make up for how deficient we are in other areas because of your contract.

There is a reason that NE has been so successful for so long. Because Brady isn't demanding to be paid at the top of the range all the time. Because of that (and Bill) they aren't constantly forced to make decisions about studs they have and paying them. Bill does what he does from a value standpoint, but they aren't facing the Vikings situation with Rudolph. Or Seattle with Frank Clark. Speaking of Frank Clark, KC did that because of their faith in Mahomes on his rookie contract.



This video feels like Chris Collinsworth talking logic and everyone else at PFF just arguing with him. Even when he asks about the middle pack of QBs being dead, it didn't shift the logic. They just said Stafford et al. shouldn't be paid at the level they are currently. However, if Stafford et al. didn't make what they do, then the upper level of QBs wouldn't be what they are... thus bringing the whole pay scale down. To that end, when Stafford is up for a contract and Rodgers is the highest paid, why don't the Lions' say, "You're not Rodgers." Steve makes the point later on in the video about the NFL just paying "the next guy up." Which, I'm just thinking :wall: :doh: :wall: :doh: It can't be the top guy making $40million and the #8 guy making $8million.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jLgrGmtA1E

*I can't get the youtube tags to work and just include it in here. If someone wants to help let me know. I tried the whole thing, watch and on, v and on, 9 and on... nothing worked.
Last edited by Lumps on Tue May 21, 2019 7:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm

Yeah, the fact someone like Dak will most likely get around 30 million will destroy any chance the Cowboys have at a SB IMO once he hits a second contract. At a certain point, the Cowboys should say, we'll pay you 22 million. If he doesn't like it, trade him, or let him walk in FA, and draft another QB on a rookie deal like Dak has. Dak at his current rate is good value. Dak at 30 million is horrible value, unless his production rises by the same degree as his pay, which isn't likely.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Tue May 21, 2019 7:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue May 21, 2019 7:30 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm
Yeah, the fact someone like Dak will most likely get around 30 million will destroy any chance the Cowboys have at a SB IMO once he hits a second contact. At a certain point, the Cowboys should say, we'll pay you 22 million,. If he doesn't like it, trade him, or let him walk in FA, and draft another QB on a rookie deal like Dak has. Dak at his current rate is good value. Dak at 30 million is horrible value, unless his production rises by the same degree as his pay, which isn't likely.
Eventually somebody is going to figure this out and trade their young QB as he enters year 4. Either that or they’ll figure out a way to marry their QB to a supermodel worth 9 figures.
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Valhalla » Tue May 21, 2019 7:35 pm

Hit the YouTube button. Then paste in everything after the v=
It took me some trial and error to figure it out as well.


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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue May 21, 2019 7:40 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:30 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm
Yeah, the fact someone like Dak will most likely get around 30 million will destroy any chance the Cowboys have at a SB IMO once he hits a second contact. At a certain point, the Cowboys should say, we'll pay you 22 million,. If he doesn't like it, trade him, or let him walk in FA, and draft another QB on a rookie deal like Dak has. Dak at his current rate is good value. Dak at 30 million is horrible value, unless his production rises by the same degree as his pay, which isn't likely.
Eventually somebody is going to figure this out and trade their young QB as he enters year 4. Either that or they’ll figure out a way to marry their QB to a supermodel worth 9 figures.
I think Kirk Cousins set the QB free agency market back. Unless he steps it up a ton, nobody is going to walk into FA and get all that guaranteed money at QB again. At a certain point, signing a QB to a 2nd deal does not make sense. Dak at 30 million a year is a good example of this. He's simply not worth it, and I think the idea of building teams around a rookie QB will become more prevalent. There is still the factor that good college QB's that can translate to the NFL don't grow on trees, but at some point, taking a shot at another Dak in the 3rd makes more sense than paying a guy like Dak 30 million dollars for a 2nd deal.
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Lumps » Tue May 21, 2019 7:43 pm

Valhalla wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:35 pm
Hit the YouTube button. Then paste in everything after the v=
It took me some trial and error to figure it out as well.

Just goes blank...
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby jenkins.math » Tue May 21, 2019 7:55 pm

Not sure where I heard/read this but only 1 QB has won a super bowl with a contract worth more than 13% of the cap and that was Peyton Manning at 13.3%.

Found that nugget interesting.
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Phaded » Tue May 21, 2019 7:58 pm

You could argue that they are paid too much; but if any position deserves to be paid the most it is quarterback.

There are not even 32 franchise quarterbacks in the league, so when you find one - you do what you can to keep them.

It is the most valuable position on the field in football.

The key to success is not necessarily to pay your quarterback less money, but to efficiently build a team that caters to the identity you want to form and get value out of the other players you sign. THAT is what the Patriots and namely Belicheck do so well, they get players cheap and get the most out of their skillset.

Building around a rookie QB sounds great on paper until you remember that the majority of them flop, bust or fizzle out.

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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Tue May 21, 2019 8:05 pm

I totally disagree. Great QBs are worth every penny. The problem is the middle tier QBs, who are paid WAY TOO MUCH, and basically keep their teams in 7-9 to 9-7 purgatory.

New Orleans sure has not been hamstrung by Drew Brees' huge contract. Big Ben has had a big contract for a long time, and the Steelers have been able to put together good teams. The only thing that has been holding back Baltimore is their QB. They were able to build one of the best rosters despite Flacco. The Chargers have been paying Rivers, hasn't stopped them from putting together a great roster.

The issue is GMs and Coaches, not great QBs. Heck, look at the terrible teams that the Packers have fielded. That's not on the shoulders of Rodgers. It's their GM, who didn't make the right moves. And even then, Rodgers still nearly dragged that team back to another Super Bowl. The only thing that kept him from dragging them, . . . , wait for it, that boat anchor for a coach, and I'm speaking both figuratively and literally here!

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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Lumps » Tue May 21, 2019 8:13 pm

No one is tossing out figures. I don't think anyone here has said top players don't deserve to be paid. Whether or not someone like Rodgers "deserves to be paid", that doesn't indicate a price. I'm merely stating that the disproportionate amount of money that certain players make (mostly QBs) hamstrings teams.

Underpaying other players was mentioned for the Pats. However, they are also underpaying their QB and he's cool with it in the name of winning and his rich wife. But isn't that just more to the point? If you want to win, you can't be paying disproportionate amounts for a sole player.
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Tue May 21, 2019 8:22 pm

Lumps wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:13 pm
Can't be true because Russell Wilson exists
he won on his rookie contract if I'm not mistaken
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue May 21, 2019 9:42 pm

NoRiskItNoBiscuit wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:22 pm
Lumps wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:13 pm
Can't be true because Russell Wilson exists
he won on his rookie contract if I'm not mistaken
He did. He actually went to the only 2 Super Bowls he's been to on his rookie deal. Rodgers won on his 2nd contract, I believe.
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby themburns » Wed May 22, 2019 3:16 am

I agree that this is a unique situation but with the structure of things as they have been, teams are 100% correct for playing it as they have, for a few reasons. First, most GMs get 1 shot at a rookie QB, and barring well being John Elway, if they screw that one up, it's their job. This breeds a timidness into the practice. Combine that with the economic state of the league, where the salary cap has risen predictably year over year to the tune of 10 million+ dollars. Some of these dollars can be rolled over from year to year, and rookie players are cost controlled for the first 4 years of their career, leaving plenty of money to pay key contributors.
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Re: NFL Quarterback Trap - and the mental gymnastics to justify it

Postby Jigga94 » Wed May 22, 2019 3:28 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 9:42 pm
NoRiskItNoBiscuit wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:22 pm
Lumps wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:13 pm
Can't be true because Russell Wilson exists
he won on his rookie contract if I'm not mistaken
He did. He actually went to the only 2 Super Bowls he's been to on his rookie deal. Rodgers won on his 2nd contract, I believe.
Right but I don't think Arods 2nd contract was break the bank level because he had been sitting the first few years
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