Research vs. Stratagy

[kamihamster]

There are many aspects to fantasy football that can lead to you winning. I think one of the things that drew me to the dynasty format is that a really good manager can truly separate themselves from the others compared to a redraft league where luck can play a large part of one's success. But I was wondering something as life has changed a lot for me and I don't have as much time to do research as I once did.

The more I think about it, this is a numbers game, and I wonder how much success is due to good strategy versus lots of research. Obviously you could do both and probably do better than if you only did one, but I'm beginning to question how much research is really needed. ADP, and keeping up with the news may be all you really need which is pretty easily available.

Strategy to me are things like roster construction optimized to the league scoring, understanding injury rates at different positions, buying low and selling high, optimizing value of rookie picks and their cyclical change in value, understanding the ever-changing landscape of the NFL game and the cat-mouse game between offense and defense. Research for me is watching film, analyzing statistics, listening to podcast, reading articles. One is not time consuming the other can be quite time consuming.

There's a lot in the nuance of this game for sure, but a lot of it is noise too and it's hard to separate the two. One can overreact or under react to new information and it can affect ones team greatly. If one ignored the daily variability and hype that can fluctuate player value and just focused on roster construction I think one would be more successful in this game. Roster construction I think is the biggest thing followed by selling high. Injuries happen, players get old, coaches can be dumb. But if you have above the league average of studs in the highest scoring position, lots of depth in the injury prone positions, have the right balance of players at various stages of their careers, and sell a player when they have significant changes in value I think you'd be pretty successful.

Just some random though different than the whole what do we think about this player.... not sure if theres anything to discuss

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I've noticed one pretty successful strategy is to load up on cheap producers. Like just a roster full of RB2/3 and WR2/3 types, continually flipping assets of value for multiple producers. It's not in me to do it but it works and probably requires minimal research/knowledge.

[Patsfan86]

I like this post a lot, thanks. Its a post made for more casual players not some of the hardcore players. Anyway I would tend to think that research can also lead to the fatal mistake of overthinking. I read these boards sometimes and im like "WTF is this person talking about? its not that complicated, this did not need this type of analysis" I understand a lot of the analysis is because a lot of people around here find it fun, which is really cool but a lot of it seems to me like its overthinking.

To Dynasty Delorean, I have struggled for a few years in dynasty due to dumb trades i have made since i enjoy trading, i am in the middle of a rebuild and im trying this strategy of loading up on Wr 2/3 and Rb 2/3 My roster is this

Lamar J/ Stafford
Sony
J Howard
Foreman
Handcuffs that have value and may start after injury or PPR backs.

Kenny G
Robby A
Zay J
1.03 WR
1.10 WR
MVS

Herndon
Hayden Hurst



While i understand that is not a championship roster on paper, barely a playoff roster, i have found it very easy to acquire these guys that i personally like and picks are super inexpensive this year so i tried to load up on them. Im hoping it works out. Dont get me wrong i love dynasty and im on these boards all the time but there is only so much research i can do before i get bored. I am the quintessential, highlight reel, one or two articles, ADP guy. I respect everyones strategy but this is just mine and i feel leads to less overthinking

[jordanzs]

I do no research. I buy the cliff notes (subscribe to a few sites) and I listen to podcasts.

I saw no college games last year besides the championship. I don’t watch the combine or tape. But I show up to play when it matters.

Don’t worry about not having time to do research. Other people get paid to do it for you.

Just bring your strategy A-game.

[sloth8u]

I completely agree when it comes to research and strategy as you define it. The one thing i wish could be tamed is trading so that research and strategy would prevail....not the teams who get over on other leaguemates.

[jenkins.math]

Obviously doing research (or having it done for you) and a strategy are both important and play roles if you want to be super successful year in and year out. One thing though that doesn't get talked about enough is knowing your leaguemates and their tendencies. For instance, I've got a guy in our league who loves QBs (single QB league btw). So I try and draft one of the rookie QBs every year because as soon as they have a big game I know I'll have a message or trade offer in my inbox. He has never picked higher than 1.06 the last 5 years or so, so I sent him Baker for his 2020 first and Sam Darnold. I've got another guy in my league that tends to prefer players from the SEC. So it's easier to gauge who he may take when he is up. Stuff like that is pretty important if you can pick up on those things.

[CrimeLord]

This is a solid post and totally agree.

We all read articles and listen to podcasts. You can argue over who's more valuable till you're blue in the face but it's not going to change your team. I've found getting to know my league mates is key. How do they play? How do they trade? How can I find imbalances in their valuations. Trading up is a stair step process. Get potential off the waiver wire. Make a micro trade for slightly better pieces. Then build on that over and over. Some owners you can gain a lot of value in trade. Other, more savvy owners, you can only trade for lateral moves. All useful as you trade your way up. Trade like a poker player or insurance adjuster. Evaluate upside/downside percentages vs cost. Nobody knows what will happen, but if you play like "the house" in Vegas, you'll beat the casual player in the long run. Sure you'll lose some trades along the way, but compared to all the wins, you'll come out on top.

Trust your gut. Rankings, trade calculators and forums can keep you from making a gross under/overvaluation, but those sources know as much as you as far as NFL news. Just use your rational. Zag when others are zigging to pick up undervalued assets.

Don't worry about your starting lineup until Sept. Treat the offseason like a stock portfolio. The only thing that matters is buy/sell price (ie players aren't scoring points in the offseason). In season you can get value from people too worried about building for the future.

I try to get picks from the bad teams and players from the good teams. Taking away a good player from a competitor and putting them on my team is a double win.

TLDR: Thumbs up for strategy.

[kamihamster]

This is a solid post and totally agree.

We all read articles and listen to podcasts. You can argue over who's more valuable till you're blue in the face but it's not going to change your team. I've found getting to know my league mates is key. How do they play? How do they trade? How can I find imbalances in their valuations. Trading up is a stair step process. Get potential off the waiver wire. Make a micro trade for slightly better pieces. Then build on that over and over. Some owners you can gain a lot of value in trade. Other, more savvy owners, you can only trade for lateral moves. All useful as you trade your way up. Trade like a poker player or insurance adjuster. Evaluate upside/downside percentages vs cost. Nobody knows what will happen, but if you play like "the house" in Vegas, you'll beat the casual player in the long run. Sure you'll lose some trades along the way, but compared to all the wins, you'll come out on top.

Trust your gut. Rankings, trade calculators and forums can keep you from making a gross under/overvaluation, but those sources know as much as you as far as NFL news. Just use your rational. Zag when others are zigging to pick up undervalued assets.

Don't worry about your starting lineup until Sept. Treat the offseason like a stock portfolio. The only thing that matters is buy/sell price (ie players aren't scoring points in the offseason). In season you can get value from people too worried about building for the future.

I try to get picks from the bad teams and players from the good teams. Taking away a good player from a competitor and putting them on my team is a double win.

TLDR: Thumbs up for strategy.

lots of good nuggets in your post. I like the part about playing like the house.