Dynasty League Football Forum

Kind of early but as camps are kicking off, we all know what that means unfortunately. I found this thread helpful last year as some seemed to get news quicker than others.

Looks like Reuben Foster suffered a pretty serious knee injury today. Carted off the field in an air cast.

I just drafted Reuben Foster in a start-up.
Figures.

Anyhow - I'm sure we are going to see the injuries pile in now.

Crowell also tore his achilles in early May, for those keeping track.

Had completely forgot about Crowell. Was probably the first major impact injury. Agreed. Seems like this time of year I'm cringing every time I check for updates on OTA's.

Ezekiel Elliott has apparently suffered (more) brain damage.

Reuben Foster just tore his (couldn't happen to a nicer guy....). I remeber last year OTAs and training camp seeming to be brutal on acls before the season or even pre seasons even started, then the season itself it slowed down. Hopefully this year isn't as bad, but apparently right around 50 total has been pretty consistent and it's not actually on as much of an upswing as it may have seemed

2019 = 1 and counting...
2018 = 52
2017 = 51
2016 = 49
2015 = 50
2014 = 45
2013 = 63

hockeyBjj wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 9:35 am Reuben Foster just tore his (couldn't happen to a nicer guy....). I remeber last year OTAs and training camp seeming to be brutal on acls before the season or even pre seasons even started, then the season itself it slowed down. Hopefully this year isn't as bad, but apparently right around 50 total has been pretty consistent and it's not actually on as much of an upswing as it may have seemed

2019 = 1 and counting...
2018 = 52
2017 = 51
2016 = 49
2015 = 50
2014 = 45
2013 = 63

So...52 players rostered per NFL team...but really it's more than that through off-season activities so I'll guess the average head count per team in the NFL calendar year is maybe 58-60? So that's maybe 1900 players? on average that are actively in the NFL? I'll round it up to 2000 because of practice squad guys tearing ACLs (are they included in the above numbers?). Maybe the number is actually closer to 2500 with all the practice squad guys, I don't know. Anyways...if it's 2000, and an average of about 52 (an entire NFL team) goes down with ACL every year...the chances of any one of your assets going down (not taking into account the increased or decreased risk across different positions) is about one in 40. The risk HAS to be higher in RB...I'd assume? Any data on how many RBs went down with ACLs? Or WRs? Any breakdown per position would help. If RBs as a position carry a heavier proportion of that ACL population than their total NFL population percentage, then the chances of any one of your RBs getting specifically an ACL tear is upped from 1/40 to maybe 1/30? If you have 3 studs...the chances you lose one of them (specifically to an ACL tear) carries some significance (1/10). The chances one goes down for any number of reasons is quite a bit larger than that, maybe even double...making it likely that you lose one of your three studs for a stretch (or a long time).

Lots of speculation/guesswork on the chances here...but a simple lesson in it. Plan for/expect injury.

Edited because of a mental lapse in my in head math skills...

Valhalla wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 10:53 am

hockeyBjj wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 9:35 am Reuben Foster just tore his (couldn't happen to a nicer guy....). I remeber last year OTAs and training camp seeming to be brutal on acls before the season or even pre seasons even started, then the season itself it slowed down. Hopefully this year isn't as bad, but apparently right around 50 total has been pretty consistent and it's not actually on as much of an upswing as it may have seemed

2019 = 1 and counting...
2018 = 52
2017 = 51
2016 = 49
2015 = 50
2014 = 45
2013 = 63

So...52 players rostered per NFL team...but really it's more than that through off-season activities so I'll guess the average head count per team in the NFL calendar year is maybe 58-60? So that's maybe 1900 players? on average that are actively in the NFL? I'll round it up to 2000 because of practice squad guys tearing ACLs (are they included in the above numbers?). Maybe the number is actually closer to 2500 with all the practice squad guys, I don't know. Anyways...if it's 2000, and an average of about 52 (an entire NFL team) goes down with ACL every year...the chances of any one of your assets going down (not taking into account the increased or decreased risk across different positions) is about one in 40. The risk HAS to be higher in RB...I'd assume? Any data on how many RBs went down with ACLs? Or WRs? Any breakdown per position would help. If RBs as a position carry a heavier proportion of that ACL population than their total NFL population percentage, then the chances of any one of your RBs getting specifically an ACL tear is upped from 1/40 to maybe 1/30? If you have 3 studs...the chances you lose one of them (specifically to an ACL tear) carries some significance (1/10). The chances one goes down for any number of reasons is quite a bit larger than that, maybe even double...making it likely that you lose one of your three studs for a stretch (or a long time).

Lots of speculation/guesswork on the chances here...but a simple lesson in it. Plan for/expect injury.

Edited because of a mental lapse in my in head math skills...

I've not researched it, but my gut/experience says yes. I try to go heavy on RBs in season. Not only because my starter could go down, but somone elses could and I have the next man up. It's a numbers game and if you have more of a position that gets injured, you stand to gain value faster.

kamihamster wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 11:10 am
I've not researched it, but my gut/experience says yes. I try to go heavy on RBs in season. Not only because my starter could go down, but somone elses could and I have the next man up. It's a numbers game and if you have more of a position that gets injured, you stand to gain value faster.

You also stand to lose value faster, though...there's two sides to that coin.

hoos89 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 11:17 am

kamihamster wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 11:10 am
I've not researched it, but my gut/experience says yes. I try to go heavy on RBs in season. Not only because my starter could go down, but somone elses could and I have the next man up. It's a numbers game and if you have more of a position that gets injured, you stand to gain value faster.

You also stand to lose value faster, though...there's two sides to that coin.

Kinda true. If you have a bunch of studs, yes. If you have the league average of studs and a bunch of depth guys, (like Conner and Williams before Bell and Hunt did their things--funny it wasn't even injury related) then not as true because if Conner when Bell was playing went down how much lower in value could he have gone? Williams was on the WW in a bunch of leagues before Hunt was suspended.

I suppose that's fair if your strategy is to load up on handcuffs rather than studs.

Phaded wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 7:40 pm This is a useful page.

Thanks. That is handy.

Matt Breida injured already, eh?

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/ap ... ning-backs


A lot of good info and insight from a trusted injury analyst, Dr Jene Bramel.


GURLEY
Basically Gurley’s long term career is in jeopardy, and it will likely be shortened due to arthritis. But his short term ability could stay in tact as long as he doesn’t experience inflammation and over use, so the Rams would be smart to and should limit his touches to prevent this and extend his career. Still, his chance of future injury is “a near certainty,” which, along with his likely lowered volume going forward, is frightening as hell if he is your RB1 in dynasty. Sell him at his current value, ASAP.

GUICE
Guice’s prognosis at this point is good/clear, he is ahead of schedule, and could be fully cleared for camp, or as Gruden has put it he will be “full go.” Buy him at his current value.

LOVE
Love has had stiffness in knee during rehab which is a sign of scar tissue and may require additional surgery. It is unlikely he is ready to participate in camp, he may not even play at all in 2019, and we may wait until 2020 to see him in the NFL. Doesn’t look like a great value himself or a threat to Guice anytime soon, if ever. What even is his current value, 3rd round rookie?


Edit: thanks for moving this here

Gtdano_14 wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 1:25 am Matt Breida injured already, eh?

This is not surprising in the least.