2019 Running Back Report

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 29, 2019 8:28 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 5:36 am


Only reason I guess that is because I saw Trent Richardson in Tier 4, and I know he checked every other box with flying colors (Speed score was 90th percentile.
Was it really though :think: . FYI, playerprofiler isn't 100% accurate with all of their stats. I found that out the hard way.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed May 29, 2019 8:33 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 8:28 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 5:36 am


Only reason I guess that is because I saw Trent Richardson in Tier 4, and I know he checked every other box with flying colors (Speed score was 90th percentile.
Was it really though :think: . FYI, playerprofiler isn't 100% accurate with all of their stats. I found that out the hard way.
The plot thickens.

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 29, 2019 8:58 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 8:33 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 8:28 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 5:36 am


Only reason I guess that is because I saw Trent Richardson in Tier 4, and I know he checked every other box with flying colors (Speed score was 90th percentile.
Was it really though :think: . FYI, playerprofiler isn't 100% accurate with all of their stats. I found that out the hard way.
The plot thickens.
One easy example is they have ray rice listed at 212lbs when he weighed in at sub 200 at the combine. Yet they’re calculating the speed score from the 212. :snooty: Trent Richardson not accurate either, along with many other players as well.

Unfortunately nfl draft scout website seems to have went under, it was a pretty good source of pro day info.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby rubber_duck » Wed May 29, 2019 9:15 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 8:19 am
What *was* the lesson from Richardson, anyways? I didn't pay close enough attention to college scouting or even the NFL at that time.
Well, the lesson is going to depend upon the method you used to rank rookies and place Richardson at (or near) the top of the list.

Finding the gaps in your ranking method that cause misses can pay enormous dividends and win leagues. To illustrate, just imaging owning the 1.01 pick in 2012 and nearly all of the fantasy sites are calling Trent Richardson a "generational talent". If you can evaluate the player and decide that he isn't that great, then trade away the 1.01 for multiple other first round picks ... well, imagine how much better off that fantasy team would be.

Doing an autopsy on mistakes is almost entirely dependent upon the method or system used. It also requires someone to be critical of their own ideas.

Yes, that is an intentionally vague response. Several of my league mates are on this site. :lol:

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby rubber_duck » Wed May 29, 2019 9:19 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 8:58 am

Unfortunately nfl draft scout website seems to have went under, it was a pretty good source of pro day info.
I don't think it did. But Draft Scout did change their page format. Try this:
http://www.draftscout.com/

Scroll down a bit and use the menu on the left side of the page to access the position you want.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Weknownothing86 » Wed May 29, 2019 1:17 pm

I enjoy comparing and contrasting this to the other popular RB thread on here. Its very interesting seeing the analytic approach (obviously this one) vs the watching tape approach (the other one). Both have their positives and negatives but its all interesting. Thank you.
If i have to explain my screen name to you than you dont understand Fantasy Football.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed May 29, 2019 1:24 pm

Allright, Delorean, I traded Damien Harris for Donta Foreman today after buying into your model. Don't fail me now!

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 29, 2019 2:42 pm

rubber_duck wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 9:19 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 8:58 am

Unfortunately nfl draft scout website seems to have went under, it was a pretty good source of pro day info.
I don't think it did. But Draft Scout did change their page format. Try this:
http://www.draftscout.com/

Scroll down a bit and use the menu on the left side of the page to access the position you want.
huh, interesting. Thanks. I swear I read that it changed ownership or something and was dead. And I went to the site and it looked all weird so I figured it wasn't good anymore lol. Are you still doing your work on Rb's as well?

Lord_Varys wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 1:24 pm
Allright, Delorean, I traded Damien Harris for Donta Foreman today after buying into your model. Don't fail me now!
I own him everywhere so you and me both haha. The injury was obviously a bad thing but on a positive note it seemed to kick his butt in gear and he's probably more fit now than he ever was before.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby rubber_duck » Thu May 30, 2019 9:15 am

Yeah, the work never stops. :-) But it has slowed down some on the RB front, mostly because there hasn't been a need to make any big changes to the RB evaluation process. The last few years have been really solid.

The past couple of years has been spent looking closer at WR and QB, with the same overall goal: bust avoidance. I find that most of the web sites and pod casters are good at pointing out how each rookie could become a star player, and are great at drumming up excitement for the rookies. But those same groups are really poor at predicting failure or risk of failure.

One of the biggest improvements to my fantasy drafting has been knowing when to stop listening to podcasts. For example, if my league's rookie draft (or auction in my case) is 2 weeks away, then I have already stopped listening to anything by the Football Guys. It gives my mind a chance to purge the unending drumbeat of rookie optimism and focus on reality: metrics, tape and situation.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Thu May 30, 2019 12:20 pm

Final two weeks and I'm trying to get a sense of what others might be doing in my league and perhaps spreading some mis-info.

:)

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:06 pm

If you were wondering if Jon Gruden uses "analytics" or not.

These are only Rb's selected in the first round. Josh Jacobs didn't complete his agility testing so I couldn't compare several other metrics for him, but could compare these.


Full Name ------- College Dominator Rating
Donald Brown 52.00%
Christian McCaffrey 50.70%
Rashaad Penny 50.10%
Melvin Gordon 47.10%
DeAngelo Williams 47.10%
LaDainian Tomlinson 46.20%
Chris Johnson 42.50%
Trent Richardson 42.10%
Leonard Fournette 38.80%
Steven Jackson 38.70%
Ezekiel Elliott 37.80%
Ryan Mathews 35.90%
Knowshon Moreno 34.90%
C.J. Spiller 33.90%
Todd Gurley 33.50%
Adrian Peterson 32.50%
Saquon Barkley 32.20%
Darren McFadden 32.10%
Marshawn Lynch 31.90%
Mark Ingram 30.70%
Sony Michel 27.50%
Jonathan Stewart 26.60%
David Wilson 26.50%
Tavon Austin 26.30%
Reggie Bush 25.60%
Doug Martin 24.30%
Ronnie Brown 22.80%
Felix Jones 21.20%
Josh Jacobs 13.90%



Full Name ------- Speed Score
Saquon Barkley 124.3
Darren McFadden 119.5
Ronnie Brown 119.4
Chris Johnson 118.2
Jonathan Stewart 116.7
Leonard Fournette 116
Adrian Peterson 115.8
Steven Jackson 115.1
Ezekiel Elliott 112.7
Ryan Mathews 112.2
Rashaad Penny 111.2
Todd Gurley 110.7
Trent Richardson 109.2
LaDainian Tomlinson 108.7
Marshawn Lynch 108.7
Felix Jones 107.7
C.J. Spiller 107.5
Reggie Bush 106.4
DeAngelo Williams 105.8
Doug Martin 104.1
Melvin Gordon 103
Donald Brown 101.5
David Wilson 100.9
Sony Michel 100.7
Christian McCaffrey 100.3
Tavon Austin 98.1
Mark Ingram 94.4
Knowshon Moreno 92.2
Josh Jacobs 90.9


It will be interesting to see how Jacobs pans out.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Life of Pablo » Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:51 pm

DD, I hate to ask but I gotta. What are your thoughts/findings on Darrell Henderson? Lately I've been hearing he's better than Todd Gurley 8-)
10-team standard, 18-man rosters (plus K/D + 1 IR spot)
1 QB | 2 RB | 2 WR | 1 TE | 1 FLEX | 1 K | 1 D
11-2, 1st (AP: 80-37 / 68.4%, 1st)
Wk 14 QF - BYE ||| Wk 15 SF - TBD

QB: Russ, Wentz
RB: Chubb, Gurley, Bell, DJ, Breida
WR: Nuk, Evans, Keenan, Diggs, AJG, Ross, Hollywood, Preston
TE: Kelce, Everett, Fant
K: Maher
D: Patriots, Chiefs
2020 Picks: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2021 Picks: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2022 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:16 pm

Life of Pablo wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:51 pm
DD, I hate to ask but I gotta. What are your thoughts/findings on Darrell Henderson? Lately I've been hearing he's better than Todd Gurley 8-)
He's very close to the tier 4 list, he's in the Terrance West / Royce Freeman range just barely missing the cut. Unfortunately the sample size for that list is very small and it's one of those things that I may be forced to revisit at some point down the road if Freeman and Hendy both hit. As of right now all I have to go on is Terrance West. In comparison to Gurley, if Gurley did complete his athletic testing he may very well have qualified for the studs list, whereas Hendy does not.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby hoos89 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:46 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:06 pm
If you were wondering if Jon Gruden uses "analytics" or not.

These are only Rb's selected in the first round. Josh Jacobs didn't complete his agility testing so I couldn't compare several other metrics for him, but could compare these.


Full Name ------- College Dominator Rating
Josh Jacobs 13.90%



Full Name ------- Speed Score
Josh Jacobs 90.9


It will be interesting to see how Jacobs pans out.
Given that Jacobs didn't run the 40 at the combine...where is his speed score coming from? Going by combine weight of 220, this is implying a 40 time of 4.69. His pro day times were reported as 4.52-4.56, which equates to a speed score over 100.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Minshew, Bridgewater, Haskins
Jacobs, Michel, D. Harris, Richard, Gaskin
DJ Moore, Sutton, Kupp, Kirk, Deebo, Dorsett, J. Gordon, Lee, Lazard
OJ Howard, Hockenson, Herndon
IR(2): Love, McKinnon
Taxi(4): MVS
2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05, 1.x, 1.x, 2.03, 2.x, 2.x, 3.05, 3.x, 4.03, 5.03

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Bridgewater, Tannehill
Gurley, Barber, M. Brown, Miller, McKinnon, Ito, J. Jackson, R. Anderson, Richard, Edmunds
Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Anderson, Beasley, Foster, Doctson, KeeSean, Lazard, Treadwell
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Reed
2020 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.x, 1.x, 2.x, 2.x

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby ericanadian » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:49 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:46 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:06 pm
If you were wondering if Jon Gruden uses "analytics" or not.

These are only Rb's selected in the first round. Josh Jacobs didn't complete his agility testing so I couldn't compare several other metrics for him, but could compare these.


Full Name ------- College Dominator Rating
Josh Jacobs 13.90%



Full Name ------- Speed Score
Josh Jacobs 90.9


It will be interesting to see how Jacobs pans out.
Given that Jacobs didn't run the 40 at the combine...where is his speed score coming from? Going by combine weight of 220, this is implying a 40 time of 4.69. His pro day times were reported as 4.52-4.56, which equates to a speed score over 100.
He uses playerprofiler.com and my understanding is that they apply an adjustment to Pro Day times +0.05 if I recall correctly. I also believe they used Alabama’s first Pro Day where Jacobs ran a 4.63/4.66. So, if you want to use the second Pro Day, you’d run it as a 4.59 to be comparable.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Tannehill, Mariota
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris, Laird, Love
WR - Julio, C. Davis, AJ Brown, Samuel, Washington, Di. Johnson, Isabella
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Hunter, Armstead, Quinn
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds
K - Just a stupid kicker


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