Somebody call Old Takes ExposedDynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 7:51 pm This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake.
2019 Running Back Report
- Orenthal Shames
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
Huh? You do realize this is all from a long-term perspective. Even in the short-term, it's went pretty much like I said. Jacobs being the safest pick had the best year and most value. Nobody else hitting 1k yards. The class as a whole looking pretty underwhelming, or do you think 2 players with unproven longevity makes an entire draft class great before their rookie season is even over? Hard to tell exactly what you're eluding to here. Did you think Jeremy Hill was the best thing since sliced bread and Derrick Henry was a bust? Making declarative statements about any player in particular or even a class as a whole after just 1 season is usually pretty silly.Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:34 amSomebody call Old Takes ExposedDynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 7:51 pm This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake.
Re: 2019 Running Back Report
I wish there was some way to get Rec yards factored in here
- Orenthal Shames
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
"The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes"
Maybe the formula was just a bit off.
Maybe the formula was just a bit off.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
Don't worry it'll change for next year.Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:35 am "The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes"
Maybe the formula was just a bit off.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly
10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell
DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly
10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell
DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
He's still on pace to be right. This class might produce one long-term stud and that's it (Jacobs). Everyone else flashed, but would you really say that Montgomery, Sanders, and Singletary are long-term RB1s?Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:34 amSomebody call Old Takes ExposedDynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 7:51 pm This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake.
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
I'd have Sanders right there with Jacobs in terms of staying power.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:39 amHe's still on pace to be right. This class might produce one long-term stud and that's it (Jacobs). Everyone else flashed, but would you really say that Montgomery, Sanders, and Singletary are long-term RB1s?Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:34 amSomebody call Old Takes ExposedDynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 7:51 pm This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake.
Less than 50% of the top 20 RBs rushed for 1000 yards, so that alone seems like an arbitrary milestone if we all typically play ppr.
My point is the formula only hit on Alex Barnes and Ryquell Armstead. That's it. The rest was all just conjecture. DD's model is the basis of the report, correct?
Last edited by Orenthal Shames on Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
Well 1000 yds rushing or receiving has been the milestone for quite some time. Looking at NFL.com I see 12 RBs that have already hit that with Mixon & Lindsay most likley hit it this week and Barkley still has a chance with 89 yds in week 17.Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:50 amI'd have Sanders right there with Jacobs in terms of staying power.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:39 amHe's still on pace to be right. This class might produce one long-term stud and that's it (Jacobs). Everyone else flashed, but would you really say that Montgomery, Sanders, and Singletary are long-term RB1s?
Less than 50% of the top 20 RBs rushed for 1000 yards, so that alone seems like an arbitrary milestone if we all typically play ppr.
My point is the formula only hit on Alex Barnes and Ryquell Armstead. That's it. The rest was all just conjecture. DD's model is what the basis of the report is on, correct?
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly
10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell
DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly
10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell
DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle
- Orenthal Shames
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
I'm not saying it's irrelevant by any means, but unless you play a format that weighs more heavily on rushing than receiving for RBs, it's far from the end all be all.djeternal2 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:11 pmWell 1000 yds rushing or receiving has been the milestone for quite some time. Looking at NFL.com I see 12 RBs that have already hit that with Mixon & Lindsay most likley hit it this week and Barkley still has a chance with 89 yds in week 17.Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:50 amI'd have Sanders right there with Jacobs in terms of staying power.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:39 am
He's still on pace to be right. This class might produce one long-term stud and that's it (Jacobs). Everyone else flashed, but would you really say that Montgomery, Sanders, and Singletary are long-term RB1s?
Less than 50% of the top 20 RBs rushed for 1000 yards, so that alone seems like an arbitrary milestone if we all typically play ppr.
My point is the formula only hit on Alex Barnes and Ryquell Armstead. That's it. The rest was all just conjecture. DD's model is what the basis of the report is on, correct?
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14
Re: 2019 Running Back Report
I’d take Sanders over Jacobs. He fits today’s nfl better, plays on a better team in a better offense. Plus he has killed it the last 4 weeks. Could see him moving out of the 50/50 timeshare and getting more like 70% of the work.
12 man league
1pt per 20 yards rushing/receiving, 1pt per 50 passing/TD 6 and 4/PPR 0.5/1QB-1RB-3WR-1TE-Flex-DEF-K
QB - Jackson
RB - Mixon - Sanders - J.Hill
WR - Sutton - Aj Brown - Cooks - Hollywood - Harry - Slayton - Whiteside - Campbell - Hardman - C. Davis - Isabella - Ross
TE - Engram - Irv Smith
DEF - Rotating
K - Rotating
1pt per 20 yards rushing/receiving, 1pt per 50 passing/TD 6 and 4/PPR 0.5/1QB-1RB-3WR-1TE-Flex-DEF-K
QB - Jackson
RB - Mixon - Sanders - J.Hill
WR - Sutton - Aj Brown - Cooks - Hollywood - Harry - Slayton - Whiteside - Campbell - Hardman - C. Davis - Isabella - Ross
TE - Engram - Irv Smith
DEF - Rotating
K - Rotating
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
So glad the people who don't even read the report continue to post nonsense here.djeternal2 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:37 amDon't worry it'll change for next year.Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:35 am "The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes"
Maybe the formula was just a bit off.
Ignorance aside, I was going to do a little post-season writeup once it was set who was going to hit the thousand yard mark. Couple of interesting things to note this season, Mark Ingram getting 3 1k yard seasons is one of the more interesting ones.
Re: 2019 Running Back Report
Brett Kollmann thinks Singletary will be an RB 1 next year.
Dynasty Team 1:
10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce
2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8
Dynasty Team 2:
10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex
QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle
2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd
10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce
2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8
Dynasty Team 2:
10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex
QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle
2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd
Re: 2019 Running Back Report
I wouldn't bet on it. Good chance Bill's draft a RB high
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
I've read every one you've put out including the one you deleted. I remember after the 2015 was deleted you put out the 2016 one where you admit to relaxing the standards to include Bell & Lamar Miller.Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:27 pmSo glad the people who don't even read the report continue to post nonsense here.djeternal2 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:37 amDon't worry it'll change for next year.Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:35 am "The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes"
Maybe the formula was just a bit off.
Ignorance aside, I was going to do a little post-season writeup once it was set who was going to hit the thousand yard mark. Couple of interesting things to note this season, Mark Ingram getting 3 1k yard seasons is one of the more interesting ones.
"Year----------Name
2016------Ezekiel Elliot
2016------ Derrick Henry
2015------ Todd Gurley
2015------ David Johnson
2013------ Le'Veon Bell ***
2012------ Lamar Miller ***
2011------ DeMarco Murray
2010 ------ Ryan Mathews
2010 ------ C.J. Spiller ***
2008 ------ Chris Johnson
2008------ Darren McFadden
2008 ------ Matt Forte
2008 ------ Ray Rice
2008 ------ Jamaal Charles
2007 ------ Adrian Peterson
2007 ------ Marshawn Lynch
2006 ------ Maurice Jones-Drew
2004 ------ Steven Jackson
*** Signifies a player missed one or more requirements by an extremely small margin. They are included but noted."
2016 report: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=115868&hilit=running+back+report
From your report from this year you even admit that you changed things and were even pleased about your "new findings" even though it would "make you look silly":
"For the past 5 years or so I’ve had an issue with putting LeVeon Bell onto the list in a straight forward and consistent way. It made enough sense to me to put him on the list but at the same time I was still not satisfied as I believe I pointed out various times in the RB report threads. In any event, since this class was so spectacularly bad, I had some time to reflect on this issue which has been nagging me and I believe I found a solution. It just required a very minor tweak to one setting but the result was significant. I was finally able to streamline Lev Bell along with Ray Rice the same way I’ve been able to streamline the rest of the players on the stud list, and even pave the way for LeSean McCoy to no longer be an outlier as well. The only caveat, Christian McCaffrey would have to be included too. Now if you’ve read my reports you know I’ve been down on CMC, so while I am very pleased with my new findings I realize it will also make me look a bit silly "
So excuse me for my ignorance.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly
10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell
DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly
10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell
DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report
You're basically hoping he's a Devonta Freeman type of outlier. RB's that are un-athletic can hit and RB's that are undersized can hit, but both in the same package and turning into an RB1, that's gotta be pretty rare. He also ran a 4.66 which puts him in a really bad group of players. Looking at my database the only players that slow to be relevant are Foster, Blount, Josh Jacobs, Alfred Morris, Jeremy Hill, James Conner, Shonn Greene, Peyton Hillis, but they're all 219+ lbs whereas Singletary is 203 lbs. Justin Forsett (198 lbs, 4.67 40) did have one good year I believe, so sure it's possible, just not likely.
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