2019 Running Back Report

[Orenthal Shames]

This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake.

Somebody call Old Takes Exposed

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake.

Somebody call Old Takes Exposed

Huh? You do realize this is all from a long-term perspective. Even in the short-term, it's went pretty much like I said. Jacobs being the safest pick had the best year and most value. Nobody else hitting 1k yards. The class as a whole looking pretty underwhelming, or do you think 2 players with unproven longevity makes an entire draft class great before their rookie season is even over? Hard to tell exactly what you're eluding to here. Did you think Jeremy Hill was the best thing since sliced bread and Derrick Henry was a bust? Making declarative statements about any player in particular or even a class as a whole after just 1 season is usually pretty silly.

[Jigga94]

I wish there was some way to get Rec yards factored in here

[Orenthal Shames]

"The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes"

Maybe the formula was just a bit off.

[djeternal2]

"The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes"

Maybe the formula was just a bit off.

Don't worry it'll change for next year.

[Cameron Giles]

This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake.

Somebody call Old Takes Exposed

He's still on pace to be right. This class might produce one long-term stud and that's it (Jacobs). Everyone else flashed, but would you really say that Montgomery, Sanders, and Singletary are long-term RB1s?

[Orenthal Shames]

This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake.

Somebody call Old Takes Exposed

He's still on pace to be right. This class might produce one long-term stud and that's it (Jacobs). Everyone else flashed, but would you really say that Montgomery, Sanders, and Singletary are long-term RB1s?

I'd have Sanders right there with Jacobs in terms of staying power.

Less than 50% of the top 20 RBs rushed for 1000 yards, so that alone seems like an arbitrary milestone if we all typically play ppr.

My point is the formula only hit on Alex Barnes and Ryquell Armstead. That's it. The rest was all just conjecture. DD's model is the basis of the report, correct?

[djeternal2]

Somebody call Old Takes Exposed

He's still on pace to be right. This class might produce one long-term stud and that's it (Jacobs). Everyone else flashed, but would you really say that Montgomery, Sanders, and Singletary are long-term RB1s?

I'd have Sanders right there with Jacobs in terms of staying power.

Less than 50% of the top 20 RBs rushed for 1000 yards, so that alone seems like an arbitrary milestone if we all typically play ppr.

My point is the formula only hit on Alex Barnes and Ryquell Armstead. That's it. The rest was all just conjecture. DD's model is what the basis of the report is on, correct?

Well 1000 yds rushing or receiving has been the milestone for quite some time. Looking at NFL.com I see 12 RBs that have already hit that with Mixon & Lindsay most likley hit it this week and Barkley still has a chance with 89 yds in week 17.

[Orenthal Shames]

He's still on pace to be right. This class might produce one long-term stud and that's it (Jacobs). Everyone else flashed, but would you really say that Montgomery, Sanders, and Singletary are long-term RB1s?

I'd have Sanders right there with Jacobs in terms of staying power.

Less than 50% of the top 20 RBs rushed for 1000 yards, so that alone seems like an arbitrary milestone if we all typically play ppr.

My point is the formula only hit on Alex Barnes and Ryquell Armstead. That's it. The rest was all just conjecture. DD's model is what the basis of the report is on, correct?

Well 1000 yds rushing or receiving has been the milestone for quite some time. Looking at NFL.com I see 12 RBs that have already hit that with Mixon & Lindsay most likley hit it this week and Barkley still has a chance with 89 yds in week 17.

I'm not saying it's irrelevant by any means, but unless you play a format that weighs more heavily on rushing than receiving for RBs, it's far from the end all be all.

[Bam_19]

I’d take Sanders over Jacobs. He fits today’s nfl better, plays on a better team in a better offense. Plus he has killed it the last 4 weeks. Could see him moving out of the 50/50 timeshare and getting more like 70% of the work.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

"The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes"

Maybe the formula was just a bit off.

Don't worry it'll change for next year.

So glad the people who don't even read the report continue to post nonsense here.

Ignorance aside, I was going to do a little post-season writeup once it was set who was going to hit the thousand yard mark. Couple of interesting things to note this season, Mark Ingram getting 3 1k yard seasons is one of the more interesting ones.

[Kmani6]

Brett Kollmann thinks Singletary will be an RB 1 next year.

[DJB]

Brett Kollmann thinks Singletary will be an RB 1 next year.

I wouldn't bet on it. Good chance Bill's draft a RB high

[djeternal2]

"The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes"

Maybe the formula was just a bit off.

Don't worry it'll change for next year.

So glad the people who don't even read the report continue to post nonsense here.

Ignorance aside, I was going to do a little post-season writeup once it was set who was going to hit the thousand yard mark. Couple of interesting things to note this season, Mark Ingram getting 3 1k yard seasons is one of the more interesting ones.

I've read every one you've put out including the one you deleted. I remember after the 2015 was deleted you put out the 2016 one where you admit to relaxing the standards to include Bell & Lamar Miller.

"Year----------Name

2016------Ezekiel Elliot
2016------ Derrick Henry

2015------ Todd Gurley
2015------ David Johnson

2013------ Le'Veon Bell ***

2012------ Lamar Miller ***

2011------ DeMarco Murray

2010 ------ Ryan Mathews
2010 ------ C.J. Spiller ***

2008 ------ Chris Johnson
2008------ Darren McFadden
2008 ------ Matt Forte
2008 ------ Ray Rice
2008 ------ Jamaal Charles

2007 ------ Adrian Peterson
2007 ------ Marshawn Lynch

2006 ------ Maurice Jones-Drew

2004 ------ Steven Jackson

*** Signifies a player missed one or more requirements by an extremely small margin. They are included but noted."

2016 report: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=115868&hilit=running+back+report


From your report from this year you even admit that you changed things and were even pleased about your "new findings" even though it would "make you look silly":

"For the past 5 years or so I’ve had an issue with putting LeVeon Bell onto the list in a straight forward and consistent way. It made enough sense to me to put him on the list but at the same time I was still not satisfied as I believe I pointed out various times in the RB report threads. In any event, since this class was so spectacularly bad, I had some time to reflect on this issue which has been nagging me and I believe I found a solution. It just required a very minor tweak to one setting but the result was significant. I was finally able to streamline Lev Bell along with Ray Rice the same way I’ve been able to streamline the rest of the players on the stud list, and even pave the way for LeSean McCoy to no longer be an outlier as well. The only caveat, Christian McCaffrey would have to be included too. Now if you’ve read my reports you know I’ve been down on CMC, so while I am very pleased with my new findings I realize it will also make me look a bit silly "

So excuse me for my ignorance.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Brett Kollmann thinks Singletary will be an RB 1 next year.

You're basically hoping he's a Devonta Freeman type of outlier. RB's that are un-athletic can hit and RB's that are undersized can hit, but both in the same package and turning into an RB1, that's gotta be pretty rare. He also ran a 4.66 which puts him in a really bad group of players. Looking at my database the only players that slow to be relevant are Foster, Blount, Josh Jacobs, Alfred Morris, Jeremy Hill, James Conner, Shonn Greene, Peyton Hillis, but they're all 219+ lbs whereas Singletary is 203 lbs. Justin Forsett (198 lbs, 4.67 40) did have one good year I believe, so sure it's possible, just not likely.