2019 Running Back Report
Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 7:51 pm
This year on paper is one of the worst RB draft classes we’ve ever seen, yet in rookie drafts I’m constantly seeing Jacobs, Sanders, and Montgomery go very highly in drafts. Sometimes they all go top 3, and I think that could be a big mistake. Yes, many Rb’s have been good lately, but on paper we may have just witnessed the best 3 year stretch of prospects entering the NFL ever. Remember when WR’s were way better than RB’s as of only 4-5 years ago? It’s all about the quality of prospects entering the league, and I urge you to stay one step ahead of your competition. Even though he didn’t make the report, Jacobs 1st round draft capital does give him some extra stability, and imo it makes him a much safer choice than the other two.
The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes. They qualify for the Tier 3 list, although none seem to be in the draft capital range in which it’s highly likely that they will hit. Actually, with Armstead I am projecting a little bit since I don’t have concrete data on him in one area (his age), however based on my best guess and available information I feel good enough to put him here for now especially since the cost to acquire him is very low. Armstead kind of gives me a Jordan Howard vibe crossed with Jonathan Williams (strong yet impatient high motor runner), although the main issue with that is he’s likely stuck behind Fournette for the next 2 years. Barnes went undrafted so the odds are lower, and he too is stuck behind yet another lead back in Derrick Henry. Even so, I think both of them are worth a scoop up in the later 3rd and/or 4th rounds of your rookie drafts. The Jags don’t seem too enamored with Fournette, and Henry will be a FA after this year.
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Tier 3 – Replaceable Backs and UDFA Dart Throws
Year__Pick____Name
2019 – 5.02 – Ryquell Armstead ***
2018 - 3.07 - Royce Freeman
2017 - 3.22 - Kareem Hunt
2016 - 5.34 - Alex Collins
2016 - 4.36 - Kenneth Dixon
2016 - 5.11 - Jordan Howard
2015 - 5.13 - Jay Ajayi
2011 - 1.28 - Mark Ingram
2009 - 1.12 - Knowshon Moreno
2008 - 6.10 - Jalen Parmele
____Undrafted
2019 – Alex Barnes
2015 - Thomas Rawls
2015 - Zach Zenner
2014 - Isaiah Crowell
2014 - Terrance Cobb
2008 - BenJarvis Green-Ellis
*** = age dependent
More details near the bottom for this Tier and others…
____________________________________________________________
Continuing on with the news and notes…
Derrick Henry finally hit in his 3rd year, so his outlook is trending up. I was not a big fan of his college film which is why I’m grateful for my RB Report. Our eyes (or at least mine) will always deceive us whether we like it or not (turd lookin' kinda good last year!). I was not a fan of CMC either but I may be changing my tune on him as well, more on that below.
This is a big year for Foreman as it will be his 3rd year in the league as well. If he’s going to hit, odds are it will be this year. 4th year 1k season breakouts are possible (MJD is one example) but much rarer.
I thought Penny was a lot like DJ coming into the league (as a raw, small school but athletic and talented RB), and it kind of played out the way I thought in that he needs a lot of refinement but the raw playmaking ability is there. I didn’t foresee Carson being as big of an impediment as he was though, and I’m hoping that the situation will resolve itself within the next year or two.
I’m seeing a lot of pessimism on Guice and I would say that he seems like a strong buy right now. I understand the injury concerns, but if we go by talent/resume as a prospect he would be the clear RB1 in this class.
Ok, now for the meat and potatoes…
For the past 5 years or so I’ve had an issue with putting LeVeon Bell onto the list in a straight forward and consistent way. It made enough sense to me to put him on the list but at the same time I was still not satisfied as I believe I pointed out various times in the RB report threads. In any event, since this class was so spectacularly bad, I had some time to reflect on this issue which has been nagging me and I believe I found a solution. It just required a very minor tweak to one setting but the result was significant. I was finally able to streamline Lev Bell along with Ray Rice the same way I’ve been able to streamline the rest of the players on the stud list, and even pave the way for LeSean McCoy to no longer be an outlier as well. The only caveat, Christian McCaffrey would have to be included too. Now if you’ve read my reports you know I’ve been down on CMC, so while I am very pleased with my new findings I realize it will also make me look a bit silly . Unfortunately, it’s just part of the process in starting something from scratch in which I had limited data. It's a tough call, but despite the smaller sample size, I believe the case is strong enough for CMC to be put on the studs list. I've also contended that Shady is someone who "should" have been on the list, so from that perspective it makes total sense to me as well. At this point I don't think i'm swaying anyone's opinion on CMC no matter where I put him so in that sense i'm glad in case i'm wrong, however I feel bad if i'm right about this and missed the boat on earlier reports. I’m going to separate the two sets of studs so that everyone is able to follow along better. Hopefully this doesn't come back to bite me
I totally understand that people don't like when I start changing up the lists (I don't like it either!), but I don't believe I've had to make any changes to the studs list due to a change in my model until now. I don't see any reason why I would make any significant changes in the future.
So that pretty much sums it up for this year. Armstead, Barnes ---> decent late round fliers. If you have any questions, feel free to ask. Full tier list below. I’ll leave a link to last year’s thread in case I forgot anything.
viewtopic.php?p=1461313#p1461313
Oh, one more thing. I had someone ask me how I did the final rankings at the end of each rb report and it’s pretty simple. I just sort by which tier they fall into, and then sort by draft round. I don’t do it based on film or anything like that.
Wait, one more one more thing. I constantly see people saying this report is wrong because of what player X did year one or year two compared to other players based on what they did year one or year two. This is strictly a long-term thing, and it's only based on thousand yard rushing seasons (except for Tier 5). For studs, we are looking at a minimum of 2, ideally 3+ thousand yard rushing seasons. For the other tiers, we are looking from anywhere between 0-2 such seasons, details for that can be found in the write-up below each tier. So to say it works or doesn't work, was right or was wrong after just 1 year is a bit short sighted. If you go back and look at the really good RB's they don't always hit right away. Sometimes it takes 2, 3, or even 4 years. In contrast, many rb's start out hot for a year and then fall off precipitously. Just keep that in mind.
Also, many thanks to those who donated last year. It typically covers the cost of getting the data from the playerprofiler data analysis package. It’s a big help.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 1 – Long-Term Studs
2018 - Saquon Barkley
2018 - Rashaad Penny
2018 - Derrius Guice
2017 - Leonard Fournette
2017 - D'Onta Foreman
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott
2016 - Derrick Henry
2015 - David Johnson
2011 - DeMarco Murray
2010 - Ryan Mathews
2008 - Darren McFadden
2008 - Chris Johnson
2008 - Matt Forte
2008 - Jamaal Charles
2007 - Adrian Peterson
2007 - Marshawn Lynch
2006 - Maurice Jones-Drew
2004 - Steven Jackson
2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson
Tier 1 – Long-Term Studs [Elusive]
2017 – Christian McCaffrey
2013 – Le’Veon Bell
2009 – LeSean McCoy
2008 – Ray Rice
2006 - DeAngelo Williams
players on this list (at least the ones who were given ample time and opportunity so far) have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons. Most have 3+.
With the inclusion of CMC to the studs list, it makes the 2017 rb class even greater than it already was.
DeAngelo Williams added to the list after fixing incorrect data.
Arian Foster and Frank Gore continue to be complete outliers for this list and, unlike McCoy, I don't foresee any way that they will ever be put on.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 2 – Fake Bellcows
2018 - Nick Chubb
2017 - Joe Mixon
2012 - Lamar Miller
2008 - Jonathan Stewart
The players on this list are often good football players but just never really seem to live up to expectations. Seems to be a near certainty they will rush for 1-2 thousand yard seasons but none have 3 or more.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 3 – Replaceable Backs and UDFA Dart Throws
Year__Pick____Name
2019 – 5.02 – Ryquell Armstead
2018 - 3.07 - Royce Freeman
2017 - 3.22 - Kareem Hunt
2016 - 5.34 - Alex Collins
2016 - 4.36 - Kenneth Dixon
2016 - 5.11 - Jordan Howard
2015 - 5.13 - Jay Ajayi
2011 - 1.28 - Mark Ingram
2009 - 1.12 - Knowshon Moreno
2008 - 6.10 - Jalen Parmele
____Undrafted
2019 – Alex Barnes
2015 - Thomas Rawls
2015 - Zach Zenner
2014 - Isaiah Crowell
2014 - Terrance Cobb
2008 - BenJarvis Green-Ellis
I separated the list into drafted and undrafted players because as you can see the drafted players have a much better hit rate and also a much higher ceiling overall. Drafted players on this list are likely to get at least 1k rushing season under the belt but none have more than 2.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 4 – Flash In The Pan
2014 - Carlos Hyde
2013 - Eddie Lacy
2012 - Trent Richardson
2012 - Doug Martin
These are running backs that start off red hot but then cool quickly. Great potential for at least 1 1k yard season but maximum of 2. No additions this year.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 5 – Pass Catchers
Year__Pick____Name
2015 - 3.13 - Duke Johnson
2014 - 2.22 - Bishop Sankey
2013 - 2.05 - Giovani Bernard
2011 - 2.24 - Shane Vereen
2008 - UDFA - Danny Woodhead
2005 - 4.29 - Darren Sproles
Test Cases
Year__Pick____Name
2018 - 4.34 - Chase Edmonds
2017 - 5.39 - Aaron Jones
This tier is composed of players that likely won’t be 3-down RB’s (none have had a 1,000 yard rushing season) but may be valuable pass catchers (most have had multiple years of 40 or even 50+ receptions) and carry good value in PPR leagues. They have good longevity, as you can see the list is composed of players stretching from over a decade ago that are still active in the league.
I might take off the test cases next year.
____________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to DONATE
____________________________________________________________
The only RB’s that my report picked up on this year are Ryquell Armstead and Alex Barnes. They qualify for the Tier 3 list, although none seem to be in the draft capital range in which it’s highly likely that they will hit. Actually, with Armstead I am projecting a little bit since I don’t have concrete data on him in one area (his age), however based on my best guess and available information I feel good enough to put him here for now especially since the cost to acquire him is very low. Armstead kind of gives me a Jordan Howard vibe crossed with Jonathan Williams (strong yet impatient high motor runner), although the main issue with that is he’s likely stuck behind Fournette for the next 2 years. Barnes went undrafted so the odds are lower, and he too is stuck behind yet another lead back in Derrick Henry. Even so, I think both of them are worth a scoop up in the later 3rd and/or 4th rounds of your rookie drafts. The Jags don’t seem too enamored with Fournette, and Henry will be a FA after this year.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 3 – Replaceable Backs and UDFA Dart Throws
Year__Pick____Name
2019 – 5.02 – Ryquell Armstead ***
2018 - 3.07 - Royce Freeman
2017 - 3.22 - Kareem Hunt
2016 - 5.34 - Alex Collins
2016 - 4.36 - Kenneth Dixon
2016 - 5.11 - Jordan Howard
2015 - 5.13 - Jay Ajayi
2011 - 1.28 - Mark Ingram
2009 - 1.12 - Knowshon Moreno
2008 - 6.10 - Jalen Parmele
____Undrafted
2019 – Alex Barnes
2015 - Thomas Rawls
2015 - Zach Zenner
2014 - Isaiah Crowell
2014 - Terrance Cobb
2008 - BenJarvis Green-Ellis
*** = age dependent
More details near the bottom for this Tier and others…
____________________________________________________________
Continuing on with the news and notes…
Derrick Henry finally hit in his 3rd year, so his outlook is trending up. I was not a big fan of his college film which is why I’m grateful for my RB Report. Our eyes (or at least mine) will always deceive us whether we like it or not (turd lookin' kinda good last year!). I was not a fan of CMC either but I may be changing my tune on him as well, more on that below.
This is a big year for Foreman as it will be his 3rd year in the league as well. If he’s going to hit, odds are it will be this year. 4th year 1k season breakouts are possible (MJD is one example) but much rarer.
I thought Penny was a lot like DJ coming into the league (as a raw, small school but athletic and talented RB), and it kind of played out the way I thought in that he needs a lot of refinement but the raw playmaking ability is there. I didn’t foresee Carson being as big of an impediment as he was though, and I’m hoping that the situation will resolve itself within the next year or two.
I’m seeing a lot of pessimism on Guice and I would say that he seems like a strong buy right now. I understand the injury concerns, but if we go by talent/resume as a prospect he would be the clear RB1 in this class.
Ok, now for the meat and potatoes…
For the past 5 years or so I’ve had an issue with putting LeVeon Bell onto the list in a straight forward and consistent way. It made enough sense to me to put him on the list but at the same time I was still not satisfied as I believe I pointed out various times in the RB report threads. In any event, since this class was so spectacularly bad, I had some time to reflect on this issue which has been nagging me and I believe I found a solution. It just required a very minor tweak to one setting but the result was significant. I was finally able to streamline Lev Bell along with Ray Rice the same way I’ve been able to streamline the rest of the players on the stud list, and even pave the way for LeSean McCoy to no longer be an outlier as well. The only caveat, Christian McCaffrey would have to be included too. Now if you’ve read my reports you know I’ve been down on CMC, so while I am very pleased with my new findings I realize it will also make me look a bit silly . Unfortunately, it’s just part of the process in starting something from scratch in which I had limited data. It's a tough call, but despite the smaller sample size, I believe the case is strong enough for CMC to be put on the studs list. I've also contended that Shady is someone who "should" have been on the list, so from that perspective it makes total sense to me as well. At this point I don't think i'm swaying anyone's opinion on CMC no matter where I put him so in that sense i'm glad in case i'm wrong, however I feel bad if i'm right about this and missed the boat on earlier reports. I’m going to separate the two sets of studs so that everyone is able to follow along better. Hopefully this doesn't come back to bite me
I totally understand that people don't like when I start changing up the lists (I don't like it either!), but I don't believe I've had to make any changes to the studs list due to a change in my model until now. I don't see any reason why I would make any significant changes in the future.
So that pretty much sums it up for this year. Armstead, Barnes ---> decent late round fliers. If you have any questions, feel free to ask. Full tier list below. I’ll leave a link to last year’s thread in case I forgot anything.
viewtopic.php?p=1461313#p1461313
Oh, one more thing. I had someone ask me how I did the final rankings at the end of each rb report and it’s pretty simple. I just sort by which tier they fall into, and then sort by draft round. I don’t do it based on film or anything like that.
Wait, one more one more thing. I constantly see people saying this report is wrong because of what player X did year one or year two compared to other players based on what they did year one or year two. This is strictly a long-term thing, and it's only based on thousand yard rushing seasons (except for Tier 5). For studs, we are looking at a minimum of 2, ideally 3+ thousand yard rushing seasons. For the other tiers, we are looking from anywhere between 0-2 such seasons, details for that can be found in the write-up below each tier. So to say it works or doesn't work, was right or was wrong after just 1 year is a bit short sighted. If you go back and look at the really good RB's they don't always hit right away. Sometimes it takes 2, 3, or even 4 years. In contrast, many rb's start out hot for a year and then fall off precipitously. Just keep that in mind.
Also, many thanks to those who donated last year. It typically covers the cost of getting the data from the playerprofiler data analysis package. It’s a big help.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 1 – Long-Term Studs
2018 - Saquon Barkley
2018 - Rashaad Penny
2018 - Derrius Guice
2017 - Leonard Fournette
2017 - D'Onta Foreman
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott
2016 - Derrick Henry
2015 - David Johnson
2011 - DeMarco Murray
2010 - Ryan Mathews
2008 - Darren McFadden
2008 - Chris Johnson
2008 - Matt Forte
2008 - Jamaal Charles
2007 - Adrian Peterson
2007 - Marshawn Lynch
2006 - Maurice Jones-Drew
2004 - Steven Jackson
2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson
Tier 1 – Long-Term Studs [Elusive]
2017 – Christian McCaffrey
2013 – Le’Veon Bell
2009 – LeSean McCoy
2008 – Ray Rice
2006 - DeAngelo Williams
players on this list (at least the ones who were given ample time and opportunity so far) have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons. Most have 3+.
With the inclusion of CMC to the studs list, it makes the 2017 rb class even greater than it already was.
DeAngelo Williams added to the list after fixing incorrect data.
Arian Foster and Frank Gore continue to be complete outliers for this list and, unlike McCoy, I don't foresee any way that they will ever be put on.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 2 – Fake Bellcows
2018 - Nick Chubb
2017 - Joe Mixon
2012 - Lamar Miller
2008 - Jonathan Stewart
The players on this list are often good football players but just never really seem to live up to expectations. Seems to be a near certainty they will rush for 1-2 thousand yard seasons but none have 3 or more.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 3 – Replaceable Backs and UDFA Dart Throws
Year__Pick____Name
2019 – 5.02 – Ryquell Armstead
2018 - 3.07 - Royce Freeman
2017 - 3.22 - Kareem Hunt
2016 - 5.34 - Alex Collins
2016 - 4.36 - Kenneth Dixon
2016 - 5.11 - Jordan Howard
2015 - 5.13 - Jay Ajayi
2011 - 1.28 - Mark Ingram
2009 - 1.12 - Knowshon Moreno
2008 - 6.10 - Jalen Parmele
____Undrafted
2019 – Alex Barnes
2015 - Thomas Rawls
2015 - Zach Zenner
2014 - Isaiah Crowell
2014 - Terrance Cobb
2008 - BenJarvis Green-Ellis
I separated the list into drafted and undrafted players because as you can see the drafted players have a much better hit rate and also a much higher ceiling overall. Drafted players on this list are likely to get at least 1k rushing season under the belt but none have more than 2.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 4 – Flash In The Pan
2014 - Carlos Hyde
2013 - Eddie Lacy
2012 - Trent Richardson
2012 - Doug Martin
These are running backs that start off red hot but then cool quickly. Great potential for at least 1 1k yard season but maximum of 2. No additions this year.
____________________________________________________________
Tier 5 – Pass Catchers
Year__Pick____Name
2015 - 3.13 - Duke Johnson
2014 - 2.22 - Bishop Sankey
2013 - 2.05 - Giovani Bernard
2011 - 2.24 - Shane Vereen
2008 - UDFA - Danny Woodhead
2005 - 4.29 - Darren Sproles
Test Cases
Year__Pick____Name
2018 - 4.34 - Chase Edmonds
2017 - 5.39 - Aaron Jones
This tier is composed of players that likely won’t be 3-down RB’s (none have had a 1,000 yard rushing season) but may be valuable pass catchers (most have had multiple years of 40 or even 50+ receptions) and carry good value in PPR leagues. They have good longevity, as you can see the list is composed of players stretching from over a decade ago that are still active in the league.
I might take off the test cases next year.
____________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to DONATE
____________________________________________________________