Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

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Ron_Y
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Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby Ron_Y » Sat May 18, 2019 2:34 pm

Hi everyone,

I am hoping to get some discussion about these two players going, as i feel they are going to be close in value over the next few years and both have a shot to be in that second tier of RB for a while. We all know how tough it is to gauge the RB position on a year to year basis though - so i always like seeing what other peoples’ thought processes are.

Looking at 2018, on paper its very clear that Conner had a better season, especially in PPR. He is being ranked and drafted in a higher position which reflects his better season i believe, as well as lack of trust in the patriots backfield management. Anyway, nothing crazy - just hoping to have some good football discussion about two good players.

Conner (Age 24)
Rank 24
ADP 16
2018 Stats: 215-973-12 (4.5 ypc), 55-497-1 (receptions)

Michel (Age 24)
Rank 35
ADP 32
2018 Stats: 209-931-6 (4.5 ypc), 7-50-0 (receptions)
League 1: 2QB: 8 Years, 3x Champion, 3x Playoffs
QB: Wentz, Carr, Darnold, Flacco
RB: Saquon, Kamara, Bell, Ingram, L. Miller, Breida, Ajayi, Smallwood, Prosise
WR: Adams, Amari, Boyd DK, A.Miller, Westbrook, Humphries, Agholor, Higgins
TE: Njoku, Ebron, Watson, Vannett, Fleener, Gates

League 2: Superflex/IDP: 4 Years, 1x Runner Up, 3x Playoffs
QB: Baker, R. Wilson, Ryan
RB: Saquon, Cook, Jacobs, Henry, White, CJA, Morris, Perine
WR: OBJ, Adams, Amari, Boyd, Sutton Humphries, Zay, Enunwa, Ross, Agholor, Cole
TE: Kelce, Kittle RSJ, Boyd
IDP: Too many to list, not enough people care, too many changes

League 3: Superflex/IDP: 1 year, 1x Champ
QB: Mahomes, Baker, Trubisky, Big Ben
RB: Saquon, Conner, DJ, White, Hunt, Carson, Latavius, AP, Hyde, Adams
WR: M. Thomas, Thielen, ARob, Hill, Golladay, Edelmen, Tyrell, A. Miller, Hurns
TE: Kittle, Ebron, Eifert, Hooper
IDP: too many, not enough people care, changes too much

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby Phaded » Sat May 18, 2019 2:47 pm

Michel pretty easily for me.

Much better talent in my honest opinion.
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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat May 18, 2019 2:50 pm

Conner for me. I think he looks like a better football player on an NFL field. Conner cut weight from college and looks sleek. Big back with great feet. Got his chance and looks the part.

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby Ice » Sat May 18, 2019 3:58 pm

Conner for me. He is in the better situation. I like both backs quite a bit.

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby UATahoe » Sat May 18, 2019 6:47 pm

I am thinking in the opposite end of this one I guess. I don’t view either of these guys as good long term investments. Conner seems like a replaceable talent to me so injury could see him lose his stranglehold on that job. Not so sure they don’t divide up touches more anyways starting this year.

And the Patriots taking Harris in the 3rd round has me questioning Sony’s long term stying power and usage.
12 Team PPR League 1Qb 2Rb 3Wr 1Flex 1Te 1Def 1K

1 QB Mahomes, Dak Prescott
2 RB Mixon, Chubb, Derrick Henry, Royce Freeman, Justice Hill, Jaylen Samuels, Darwin Thompson, Tony Pollard
3 WR OBJ, K. Allen, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, DJ Moore, C. Godwin, D. Pettis, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Preston Williams
1 TE Hunter Henry, M. Andrews, T. Burton
D/ST Bills
K Badgley

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby JFever » Sat May 18, 2019 7:16 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 2:50 pm
Conner for me. I think he looks like a better football player on an NFL field. Conner cut weight from college and looks sleek. Big back with great feet. Got his chance and looks the part.
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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby Dr. Trades » Sat May 18, 2019 7:39 pm

Good debate/question here. I’m a Steelers fan, but something is strongly telling me not to trust Conner as the sure thing long and even short term. I could see a scenario where both Snell and Samuels get worked into that system enough to drop Conner at least a tier or two and become rather inconsistent from a fantasy perspective in the sense of boom/bust. I just don’t think they have a 100% investment in him. Do I think he’s good? Yes. But watching his film, he seems to be a good portion the product of that top 3-5 o-line, as well as the way the system is designed.

To me, on film from Georgia and as a rookie, Sony Michel is the far superior RB on talent alone. I also think that despite belicheck’s history of moving RBs around, they have a serious investment with Michel and he didn’t disappoint as a rookie. They didn’t rev him up until week four, he missed roughly 3 games in the middle of the season, and still rushed for nearly 1000 yards. He’s going to be featured even more this year with the departure of other players. I’m not really worried about Harris much at all. He’s not the talent that Michel is.

To me, Michel is actually a great buy low with people scared of the Harris pick. There may be a smidge more short term upside with Conner, but for dynasty purposes, I’d rather have Michel.
League 1: 12 Team League (0.5 ppr WR/RB, 0.75 ppr TE):
QB: Big Ben, Mayfield, Foles
RB: Saquon, Mixon, M. Mack, RoJo, Jalen Richard, Benny Snell, Rodney Anderson, Trayveon, Mike Weber
WR: Nuk, Julio, Boyd, Geronimo Allison, M. V-S, Flash Gordon, Tre'Quan Smith, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Jalen Hurd, Willie Snead, Preston Williams
TE: C. Herndon, Vance McDonald, T. Eifert, Josh Oliver, Matt Lacosse

2020 picks: 4th x 1

League 2: 12 team (28 roster spots) Superflex/TE premium (qb 4pts per TD, all others 6pts per TD, WR/RB 0.1 ppc and 0.75ppr, TE 1.5 ppr)
QB: Brees, Stafford, Rivers
RB: Kamara, Mixon, James White, Malcolm Brown, John Kelly, Devine Ozigbo, Zach Zenner
WR: JuJu, Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry, Mike Williams, Will Fuller, Dante Pettis, JJAWS, Nelson Agholor, Dillon Mitchell, Chad Williams, Chester Rogers
TE: George Kittle, Evan Engram, Gerald Everett, Jordan Thomas, Blake Jarwin, Charles Clay

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Sat May 18, 2019 11:30 pm

UATahoe wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 6:47 pm
I am thinking in the opposite end of this one I guess. I don’t view either of these guys as good long term investments. Conner seems like a replaceable talent to me so injury could see him lose his stranglehold on that job. Not so sure they don’t divide up touches more anyways starting this year.

And the Patriots taking Harris in the 3rd round has me questioning Sony’s long term stying power and usage.
x2
RIVERS, Jimmy G, J Allen, Dalton
GURLEY/MIXON/GORDON, Jacobs, Shady, Gio, Gallman, Scarlett, Ajayi, D Martin, Ollison, Foreman, Barnes, Ware, Rodney A
NUK/EVANS/K ALLEN/DIGGS/GOLLADAY, Sammy, Pettis, Edelman, McLaurin, Crabtree, Dez, D Slayton, Terry G
KITTLE, Herndon, Knox, Eifert, Witten
-
DL: J BOSA/BUCKNER/C JORDAN/DUNLAP/GRIFFEN, N Bosa, Quinnen, Houston, B Graham
LB: MCKINNEY/VAN NOY/TAVAI, Okereke, KJW, Barron, Jewell, Takitaki, Kiser
DB: JOHNSON III/ABRAM/GEATHERS, Tartt, M Blair, Burnett, W Harris, Q Diggs, TJ-Mac

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun May 19, 2019 7:25 am

25 is prime age for a RB. Both are nearing that age very soon.

Conner is in the better offense. Michel is the better player. Therefore:

Conner short term (2 years). Michel long term (3 or more years).
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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby Ron_Y » Sun May 19, 2019 9:30 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 7:25 am
25 is prime age for a RB. Both are nearing that age very soon.

Conner is in the better offense. Michel is the better player. Therefore:

Conner short term (2 years). Michel long term (3 or more years).
Any thoughts on Michel's knee condition coming out of college?
League 1: 2QB: 8 Years, 3x Champion, 3x Playoffs
QB: Wentz, Carr, Darnold, Flacco
RB: Saquon, Kamara, Bell, Ingram, L. Miller, Breida, Ajayi, Smallwood, Prosise
WR: Adams, Amari, Boyd DK, A.Miller, Westbrook, Humphries, Agholor, Higgins
TE: Njoku, Ebron, Watson, Vannett, Fleener, Gates

League 2: Superflex/IDP: 4 Years, 1x Runner Up, 3x Playoffs
QB: Baker, R. Wilson, Ryan
RB: Saquon, Cook, Jacobs, Henry, White, CJA, Morris, Perine
WR: OBJ, Adams, Amari, Boyd, Sutton Humphries, Zay, Enunwa, Ross, Agholor, Cole
TE: Kelce, Kittle RSJ, Boyd
IDP: Too many to list, not enough people care, too many changes

League 3: Superflex/IDP: 1 year, 1x Champ
QB: Mahomes, Baker, Trubisky, Big Ben
RB: Saquon, Conner, DJ, White, Hunt, Carson, Latavius, AP, Hyde, Adams
WR: M. Thomas, Thielen, ARob, Hill, Golladay, Edelmen, Tyrell, A. Miller, Hurns
TE: Kittle, Ebron, Eifert, Hooper
IDP: too many, not enough people care, changes too much

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun May 19, 2019 9:38 am

Ron_Y wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 9:30 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 7:25 am
25 is prime age for a RB. Both are nearing that age very soon.

Conner is in the better offense. Michel is the better player. Therefore:

Conner short term (2 years). Michel long term (3 or more years).
Any thoughts on Michel's knee condition coming out of college?
I think it's fine. Unless his knee was mutilated (Marcus Lattimore) or an achilles popped (D'Onta Foreman), I wouldn't be concerned about it. All else is usually repaired well these days.
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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby Ron_Y » Sun May 19, 2019 10:47 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 9:38 am
Ron_Y wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 9:30 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 7:25 am
25 is prime age for a RB. Both are nearing that age very soon.

Conner is in the better offense. Michel is the better player. Therefore:

Conner short term (2 years). Michel long term (3 or more years).
Any thoughts on Michel's knee condition coming out of college?
I think it's fine. Unless his knee was mutilated (Marcus Lattimore) or an achilles popped (D'Onta Foreman), I wouldn't be concerned about it. All else is usually repaired well these days.
Moreso looking at reports that he has a bone on bone condition similar to ajayi
League 1: 2QB: 8 Years, 3x Champion, 3x Playoffs
QB: Wentz, Carr, Darnold, Flacco
RB: Saquon, Kamara, Bell, Ingram, L. Miller, Breida, Ajayi, Smallwood, Prosise
WR: Adams, Amari, Boyd DK, A.Miller, Westbrook, Humphries, Agholor, Higgins
TE: Njoku, Ebron, Watson, Vannett, Fleener, Gates

League 2: Superflex/IDP: 4 Years, 1x Runner Up, 3x Playoffs
QB: Baker, R. Wilson, Ryan
RB: Saquon, Cook, Jacobs, Henry, White, CJA, Morris, Perine
WR: OBJ, Adams, Amari, Boyd, Sutton Humphries, Zay, Enunwa, Ross, Agholor, Cole
TE: Kelce, Kittle RSJ, Boyd
IDP: Too many to list, not enough people care, too many changes

League 3: Superflex/IDP: 1 year, 1x Champ
QB: Mahomes, Baker, Trubisky, Big Ben
RB: Saquon, Conner, DJ, White, Hunt, Carson, Latavius, AP, Hyde, Adams
WR: M. Thomas, Thielen, ARob, Hill, Golladay, Edelmen, Tyrell, A. Miller, Hurns
TE: Kittle, Ebron, Eifert, Hooper
IDP: too many, not enough people care, changes too much

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun May 19, 2019 1:03 pm

Ron_Y wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 10:47 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 9:38 am
Ron_Y wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 9:30 am


Any thoughts on Michel's knee condition coming out of college?
I think it's fine. Unless his knee was mutilated (Marcus Lattimore) or an achilles popped (D'Onta Foreman), I wouldn't be concerned about it. All else is usually repaired well these days.
Moreso looking at reports that he has a bone on bone condition similar to ajayi
Yeah, and they said Ajayi would be lucky to make it to his 2nd contract, and now that's where we are at with him. I think the concerns are warranted with Michel, considering he missed time twice last year with a knee injury. This is worth a read.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/9 ... e_on_bone/

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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun May 19, 2019 1:24 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 1:03 pm
Ron_Y wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 10:47 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 9:38 am

I think it's fine. Unless his knee was mutilated (Marcus Lattimore) or an achilles popped (D'Onta Foreman), I wouldn't be concerned about it. All else is usually repaired well these days.
Moreso looking at reports that he has a bone on bone condition similar to ajayi
Yeah, and they said Ajayi would be lucky to make it to his 2nd contract, and now that's where we are at with him. I think the concerns are warranted with Michel, considering he missed time twice last year with a knee injury. This is worth a read.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/9 ... e_on_bone/
Oh damn.... thanks for bringing this up. I honestly had no idea. It's not in my notes anywhere. I see the ACL tear but nothing else.

Welp.... I gotta start making some trade offers this season....

I'll take Conner btw. Something still bothers me with him though. Can't quite put my finger on it. I own zero shares of Conner and soon I'll own zero shares of Michel.
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Re: Sony Michel vs. James Conner: Who to own long term?

Postby FantasyDumDum » Sun May 19, 2019 1:34 pm

Both have concerns.

Michel: bad knee, injuries rookie year, aging QB, lost Gronk, RBBC developing

Conner: less talented, aging QB, lost AB, lost elite OL and RB coaches, solid backups in Samuels/Snell


Not high on either. Toss up
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

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Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4


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