Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Wed May 15, 2019 9:19 pm

Evans is such a unique player ... he has the most amazing & stable floor, but he lacks any sexy upside for some reason ... maybe its because he plays for a dumpster fire NFL team ... maybe because he's a weird tweener between possession WR and game changer. Granted I've not seen a lot of his games (goes to Tampa being a dumpster fire), but I've never seen him takeover and dominate a game like OBJ, AB or Julio.

In regards to your specific question, I don't think he goes #7 in an NFL draft today. I think NFL teams are looking for players in the Top 10 that fundamentally change how opponents prepare for them. As good as he is, I don't think NFL teams game plan against him when they play the Bucs.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Friction » Thu May 16, 2019 4:14 am

I dont think Mike Williams would, even though he was drafted not long ago. Evans is a tough call, since hindsight is so easy to see. All i know is in his last college season, about 5 times per game Manziel would scramble around for 15 seconds and heave up a bomb that somehow Evans would jump and snatch over 3 defenders in the middle of the field (30 yards down it). If i had to bet, he would still go first round, but maybe closer to the teens to early 20s. Not saying that is the correct call, but my gut says that is how the NFL as a whole may view his type of skillset nowadays.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu May 16, 2019 4:20 am

I think there is something about Hakeem Butler that NFL teams didn't like and that we're not aware of. We tend to forget that the real NFL has way more information than we do.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby jenkins.math » Thu May 16, 2019 5:17 am

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. It's not that the league is devaluing the big guys, but moreso the game has made brute strength for receivers less important with the rule changes. You can't sneeze on a WR now without it being a penalty. The rule changes have allowed the passing game to flourish for all pass catchers.

The NFL will always like the freak of natures. If there are 2 prospects that are identical in everything, the bigger one will always get picked ahead of the smaller guy. This year didnt have freaks of nature at the WR position that were as productive as their peers. That's why they didnt go high. Not because the league all of a sudden has it out for big receivers.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby nathanq42 » Thu May 16, 2019 6:46 am

Mike Evans for sure has sexy upside. He has a 1500 yard season under his belt, and a double digit TD season under his belt. TDs are unpredictable so if he can get ~1400 and double digit TDs that would be very game breaking. As an Evans owner there have for sure been times he has won me weeks. Go through his game logs, you'll find some games where you'd assume he was playing against college kids, or was just left open all game.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Ice » Thu May 16, 2019 8:34 am

Not a chance he would have gone near that high in this draft. Way too much defensive talent and the WR group is very deep.

I could see the Pats taking him over Harry though.

Nothing against Evans but a different time and with so much defense and O line talent; he would have fallen like all the WR’s this draft in round 1.

NFL Philosophy today is speed on defense and QB protection on offense.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Ice » Thu May 16, 2019 8:43 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 4:20 am
I think there is something about Hakeem Butler that NFL teams didn't like and that we're not aware of. We tend to forget that the real NFL has way more information than we do.
Butler doesn’t catch the football very well and struggles against press on tape. Game speed is mechanical and pretty slow.

To his credit he did work with Calvin before the draft to learn a few moves but just being big isn’t enough.

He is project with long term upside but the risk is pretty high.

No doubt that is what teams were concerned about but the allure of his size helped or he would have fallen further. There could have been issues we don’t know about but doubt it based on where he was drafted which wasn’t that low based on his actual talent / skill level to date.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu May 16, 2019 9:14 am

nathanq42 wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 6:46 am
Mike Evans for sure has sexy upside. He has a 1500 yard season under his belt, and a double digit TD season under his belt. TDs are unpredictable so if he can get ~1400 and double digit TDs that would be very game breaking. As an Evans owner there have for sure been times he has won me weeks. Go through his game logs, you'll find some games where you'd assume he was playing against college kids, or was just left open all game.
Exactly, he’s absolutely a game-wrecker for fantasy. I’ve owned him at least once in every league I’ve played in, and loved it.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby jenkins.math » Thu May 16, 2019 9:21 am

Ice wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:34 am
Not a chance he would have gone near that high in this draft. Way too much defensive talent and the WR group is very deep.

I could see the Pats taking him over Harry though.

Nothing against Evans but a different time and with so much defense and O line talent; he would have fallen like all the WR’s this draft in round 1.

NFL Philosophy today is speed on defense and QB protection on offense.
NFL philosophy is about airing it out all over the place. The final 4 teams last season were the top 4 offenses I believe.

You honestly think Evans wouldn't have been the top WR taken this year? He would have probably gone top 10 again this year regardless of how deep the draft was at WR. The 49ers, Jets, Jags, and Bills all could have used Mike Evans. He would have been in a clear tier by himself and the NFL is always looking for game changers. This was just a bad year for top end skill position talent. It's been billed that way for an entire year. Next year will be back to having multiple WRs go early.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Lumps » Thu May 16, 2019 9:46 am

1. I can't believe how many couldn't follow the question you were asking.
2. I think this is a backwards way of clinging on to the fantasy community's notion that Butler was 1.1 in rookie drafts. You're basically taking the stance of: Butler at 1.1 was right, so would the NFL not draft Evans so highly now? Because clearly that's why Butler didn't go in the first round.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Ice » Thu May 16, 2019 10:49 am

jenkins.math wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 9:21 am
Ice wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:34 am
Not a chance he would have gone near that high in this draft. Way too much defensive talent and the WR group is very deep.

I could see the Pats taking him over Harry though.

Nothing against Evans but a different time and with so much defense and O line talent; he would have fallen like all the WR’s this draft in round 1.

NFL Philosophy today is speed on defense and QB protection on offense.
NFL philosophy is about airing it out all over the place. The final 4 teams last season were the top 4 offenses I believe.

You honestly think Evans wouldn't have been the top WR taken this year? He would have probably gone top 10 again this year regardless of how deep the draft was at WR. The 49ers, Jets, Jags, and Bills all could have used Mike Evans. He would have been in a clear tier by himself and the NFL is always looking for game changers. This was just a bad year for top end skill position talent. It's been billed that way for an entire year. Next year will be back to having multiple WRs go early.
Not sure if he would have been 1st WR taken but I highly doubt it.

He didn’t test all that great compared to multiple WR’s in this draft. His tape was decent but routes were not crisp. Vertical was average as were most of his numbers.

Hind sight is 20 / 20 but no team would have known that at the time.

Obviously, he is elite today but outside of his size he wasn’t special compared to many in this class.

He did benefit from a very good college QB much like a M. Brown so teams did know he had a solid chance to develop.

Of course all those teams could use an Evans today but they also needed defense front line help which is a more needed position with a lower bust factor.

This draft was extremely strong up front and today GM’s will reach on a QB but for the most part they want impact starters at the top of the draft.

Today he may have gone in the 2nd round. Doesn’t really matter as teams expect starters in the first 3 rounds which are all high picks through the eyes of NFLGM’s.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby _yeti » Thu May 16, 2019 11:23 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 7:26 pm
Butler's collegiate resume can't hold Evans' jockstrap. Butler took four years to have one big season, whereas Evans was a stud immediately, and declared after just two seasons. Butler played for a bad team in a so-so conference, whereas Evans was dominating the best defenses in FBS. Evans got the benefit of having the most (in)famous QB in the NCAA throw him passes, while as I sit here typing this I have no idea who was Iowa State's QB. All this is aside from Butler's flaws on tape, for example his egregious drop rate and poor ball-skills.

I'll concede that if not for all the media exposure Evans enjoyed catching passes from Manziel in the SEC, Evans' collegiate tape was probably more of a late-1st quality than top-10. Even so, he was a far more exciting prospect than Butler. I can't overstate how important it was that Evans was mega productive against top competition as only a freshman and sophomore.
This. It is ludicrous to think he wouldn't be the first WR taken in this draft. Corey Davis, Mike Williams, at no point have teams stopped taking big WRs high in the draft. This draft is an indication of the lack of talent at the skill positions. That may be proven wrong, but I believe it. Along those same lines, we do have the ability of seeing how Evans played out and it has been better than teams could have hoped for at draft time. So the only reason he wouldn't go as high as he did or higher is just saying that the class was deep at other positions. Not so deep that he wouldn't have been snatched up where he was or higher.

Just a few years ago everyone was taking as fact that highly drafted RBs were a thing of the past. Then we get Gurley, Gordon, Zeke, Fournette, Barkley. Point being that the cream rises to the top and Evans is simply a better WR offering more than every receiver in this class, that's how he was evaluated at the time and it was proven right. These guys are not getting that type of grade and I agree. That is why I like Nino's takes, it isn't just a matchup of combine numbers or college stats. I am not a WR scout, and don't have the all-22 view of the games, but I am not seeing much in this draft class. I could be totally wrong but that's how they have been graded out and they fell accordingly.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu May 16, 2019 11:29 am

Lumps wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 9:46 am
1. I can't believe how many couldn't follow the question you were asking.
2. I think this is a backwards way of clinging on to the fantasy community's notion that Butler was 1.1 in rookie drafts. You're basically taking the stance of: Butler at 1.1 was right, so would the NFL not draft Evans so highly now? Because clearly that's why Butler didn't go in the first round.
Agree completely, on both counts.

Regardless of draft position, Mike Evans was a markedly better draft pick than Hakeem Butler. It’s hard to say whether or not he would have gone in the top 7 in this draft, but I’d bet he would’ve gone in a similar range, like Buffalo at 9 or GB at 12.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby jenkins.math » Thu May 16, 2019 11:42 am

Ice wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 10:49 am

Not sure if he would have been 1st WR taken but I highly doubt it.

He didn’t test all that great compared to multiple WR’s in this draft. His tape was decent but routes were not crisp. Vertical was average as were most of his numbers.


Hind sight is 20 / 20 but no team would have known that at the time.

Obviously, he is elite today but outside of his size he wasn’t special compared to many in this class.

He did benefit from a very good college QB much like a M. Brown so teams did know he had a solid chance to develop.

Of course all those teams could use an Evans today but they also needed defense front line help which is a more needed position with a lower bust factor.

This draft was extremely strong up front and today GM’s will reach on a QB but for the most part they want impact starters at the top of the draft.

Today he may have gone in the 2nd round. Doesn’t really matter as teams expect starters in the first 3 rounds which are all high picks through the eyes of NFLGM’s.
This explains a lot and makes sense with your DK love. Evans still tested in the 71st percentile with his vertical at 37", which is fantastic considering his size. Not sure why you thought he was just average there.

If your main focus and eval is on what these guys do at the underwear Olympics, I'm guessing you loved the last few Raiders drafts under Al Davis. How did those turn out again? Give me the guy that dominated the best college football conference on the planet at a young age over the combine warrior who didn't exactly produce as much.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Ice » Thu May 16, 2019 11:53 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:29 am
Lumps wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 9:46 am
1. I can't believe how many couldn't follow the question you were asking.
2. I think this is a backwards way of clinging on to the fantasy community's notion that Butler was 1.1 in rookie drafts. You're basically taking the stance of: Butler at 1.1 was right, so would the NFL not draft Evans so highly now? Because clearly that's why Butler didn't go in the first round.
Agree completely, on both counts.

Regardless of draft position, Mike Evans was a markedly better draft pick than Hakeem Butler. It’s hard to say whether or not he would have gone in the top 7 in this draft, but I’d bet he would’ve gone in a similar range, like Buffalo at 9 or GB at 12.
Didn't really read the OP's posts as an either or scenario between Butler or Evans based on some notion from the fantasy community. I didn't even rate Butler in my top 12 WR's this class. Evans had a few minor issues with route running in college, which is common for bigger WR's in college given what is asked from them, but he was always a natural pass catcher where as Butler isn't.

I read it as if he would be a top 7 pick this specific class in today's environment.


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