So what is a JAG?

[Wizard]

So what does JAG stand for?

[Bot101]

Just
A
Guy

[Forza_Azzurri]

e.g. Damien Williams

[Ice]

e.g. Damien Williams

Haha
Post of the Day!!

[FantasyDumDum]

e.g. Damien Williams

You mean Carlos Hyde and Darrel Williams right? The guys that Damien Williams is a clear starter ahead of. The same Damien Williams that has produced at elite levels of efficiency when given any sort of volume throughout his career both in KC and Miami, had above average athletic measurable/metrics coming into the league(running 4.45 at 222 LBs as an example), and is undoubtedly a top tier pass catching back in the league. That last fact alone makes him more than just a guy.

I know this is a JAJ thread(Just A Joke), but it still gets annoying to see the same old ignorant(or hot take trolling for reactions) posts about Williams.

[Friction]

e.g. Damien Williams

You win the day.

[Forza_Azzurri]

e.g. Damien Williams

You mean Carlos Hyde and Darrel Williams right? The guys that Damien Williams is a clear starter ahead of. The same Damien Williams that has produced at elite levels of efficiency when given any sort of volume throughout his career both in KC and Miami, had above average athletic measurable/metrics coming into the league(running 4.45 at 222 LBs as an example), and is undoubtedly a top tier pass catching back in the league. That last fact alone makes him more than just a guy.

I know this is a JAJ thread(Just A Joke), but it still gets annoying to see the same old ignorant(or hot take trolling for reactions) posts about Williams.

Sorry, I was confused by his 3.6 YPC in Miami and his status as an UFA entering the league. My bad.

[FantasyDumDum]

e.g. Damien Williams

You mean Carlos Hyde and Darrel Williams right? The guys that Damien Williams is a clear starter ahead of. The same Damien Williams that has produced at elite levels of efficiency when given any sort of volume throughout his career both in KC and Miami, had above average athletic measurable/metrics coming into the league(running 4.45 at 222 LBs as an example), and is undoubtedly a top tier pass catching back in the league. That last fact alone makes him more than just a guy.

I know this is a JAJ thread(Just A Joke), but it still gets annoying to see the same old ignorant(or hot take trolling for reactions) posts about Williams.

Sorry, I was confused by his 3.6 YPC in Miami and his status as an UFA entering the league. My bad.

Ah, so you’re just a troll with zero depth of analysis.

First, YPC means little for him, as he is a dynamic receiving back. But still, you’re way off. When given no volume his YPC has suffered, but when given legitimate carry volume as a starter, he has MORE than thrived. In his 8 career games started between Miami and KC, he has:

108 carries for 511 yards, 4.7 YPC, and 5 TDs.

And that is just rushing. Add his receiving stats from those 8 games started:

30 receptions, 268 yards, 8.9 YPR, 3 TDs.


Extrapolated over a whole season, that is:

216 carries, 1022 yards, 10 TDs.
60 receptions, 536 yards, 6 TDs.

Good for 281.8 fantasy points .5ppr, a number that would put him 6th in RB scoring last year right behind Zeke at 290. And yeah, he is also now the clear starter in the high end KC offense, a much better position than he was in when he was still excelling in the dogshit Miami offense.

And do you even know why he was UDFA? He came from JUCO, made it to Oklahoma in an improbable way, won the starting job there, and then got kicked off the team for discipline. He hasn’t had an easy path ever and he has won a starting position at every level and on every team he has played on.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Yup, I’m just a troll ... his KC numbers are irrelevant because they prove situation matters to his production. Miami is the important place to look because they were a team starving for talent, and he was ushered aside. Dude, he’s probably going to have a very nice season this year in KC, but if you think he’s a long-term stud at RB regardless of team you’re fooling yourself.

He is the quintessential JAG ... not because he won’t put up numbers but because his numbers are completely dependent on his situation.

[Ice]

Damien Williams
Entering his 6th year in the NFL
74 games played regular season
7 Games started
183 total carries
733 total rushing yards
7 TD's
108 Receptions
893 Yards
8 TD's

Average TOTAL rushing yards per game: 9.9 YES NINE POINT 9 YARDS PER GAME
Average TOTAL receiving yards per game: 12.07 YES Twelve Point zero seven and I rounded up.

Bottom line JAG

Imagine the Chaos with Williams owners if McCoy gets cut and signs with Reid in training camp. HMMMMM

He could have a good year but he is a JAG and not long for the fantasy world.

[FantasyDumDum]

Yikes! You guys are either really bad with stats, or really bad about lying with stats.


Here are Damien Williams’ fantasy points per touch(.5ppr):

In Miami - 1.19
In KC - 1.35
Career - 1.24


Here are other notable RBs in Miami:

Drake - 1.04
Gore - 0.57


Here is the elite RB in KC before him:

Hunt - 0.99


Here are other elite RBs:

Gurley - 0.95
Barkley - 0.96
CMC - 1.18
Gordon - 0.86
Chubb - 0.92
Conner - 0.97


Here is the RB he is starting ahead of this year:

Hyde - 0.73



Damien Williams isn’t an elite all around back, but he is an above average RB with some elite qualities, the best of which is his actual fantasy production, regardless of situation/team/offense/scheme - he has outproduced other solid and elite RBs in each situation he has been in in this league when given touches. He has been his best BY FAR when given starts and more touches. Now he is in line as the clear starter in one of the best offenses in recent football history.

You can keep your head in the sand, be lazy and ignorant, troll with hot takes about him being a JAG, or all three, but expect to be called out on it if you do.

[kadun2]

Yikes! You guys are either really bad with stats, or really bad about lying with stats.


Here are Damien Williams’ fantasy points per touch(.5ppr):

In Miami - 1.19
In KC - 1.35
Career - 1.24


Here are other notable RBs in Miami:

Drake - 1.04
Gore - 0.57


Here is the elite RB in KC before him:

Hunt - 0.99


Here are other elite RBs:

Gurley - 0.95
Barkley - 0.96
CMC - 1.18
Gordon - 0.86
Chubb - 0.92
Conner - 0.97


Here is the RB he is starting ahead of this year:

Hyde - 0.73



Damien Williams isn’t an elite all around back, but he is an above average RB with some elite qualities, the best of which is his actual fantasy production, regardless of situation/team/offense/scheme - he has outproduced other solid and elite RBs in each situation he has been in in this league when given touches. He has been his best BY FAR when given starts and more touches. Now he is in line as the clear starter in one of the best offenses in recent football history.

You can keep your head in the sand, be lazy and ignorant, troll with hot takes about him being a JAG, or all three, but expect to be called out on it if you do.

Bam!

[honcho55]

Fantasy points per touch is a nice number to look at.

However there’s some arguments as to why Williams numbers were inflated some. I mean I think we can all agree he’s not 25+% better than that list you made behind him?

Anyways

I prefer the line of thought that no one in the NFL is ‘just another guy’. Of course at any level regardless there’s replacement level talent and worse. But... *everybody* is good in the NFL. Give them a perfect storm of situation and things can happen.

[PR0v3]

Yikes! You guys are either really bad with stats, or really bad about lying with stats.


Here are Damien Williams’ fantasy points per touch(.5ppr):

In Miami - 1.19
In KC - 1.35
Career - 1.24


Here are other notable RBs in Miami:

Drake - 1.04
Gore - 0.57


Here is the elite RB in KC before him:

Hunt - 0.99


Here are other elite RBs:

Gurley - 0.95
Barkley - 0.96
CMC - 1.18
Gordon - 0.86
Chubb - 0.92
Conner - 0.97


Here is the RB he is starting ahead of this year:

Hyde - 0.73



Damien Williams isn’t an elite all around back, but he is an above average RB with some elite qualities, the best of which is his actual fantasy production, regardless of situation/team/offense/scheme - he has outproduced other solid and elite RBs in each situation he has been in in this league when given touches. He has been his best BY FAR when given starts and more touches. Now he is in line as the clear starter in one of the best offenses in recent football history.

You can keep your head in the sand, be lazy and ignorant, troll with hot takes about him being a JAG, or all three, but expect to be called out on it if you do.

Here’s a post I made somewhere else about a different player that is similarly overhyped as a talent through the use of misleading point per touch stats. Just imagine it’s about Williams as although the post is about a different player, the point per touch argument tends to wilt with the slightest bit of context when it comes to these low usage JAG types.

“These stats are misleading because they fail to account for role. Although Drake played 60% of the snaps, he was only utilized (carry + target) on 35% of his snaps. Gore on the other hand, was utilized on 52% of his snaps.

McCaffery utilization = 36% (on nearly 2x the volume)

Barkley = 45% on over 1.5x snaps

Gordon = 46% on similar snaps

Conner = 38% on 1.3x snaps

Gurley = 41% on 1.5x snaps

Hunt = 43% on similar snaps

Chubb = 56% on .7 snaps

Hyde = 49% on .7 snaps

Breida = 51% on .6 snaps

As we can see, all of these guys saw the ball a greater percentage of the time while on the field AND were also on the field as much or more (the top RBs at least).

Given this info, we can pretty safely assume that teams were probably less focused on Drake than other good RBs. Turns out this assumption is most certainly true, as Drake faced 8+ in the box 10% of the time, which was 4th least of all qualifying RBs in the NFL.

Another factor that plays into Drake’s high fantasy points per touch is his high reception/touch ratio (31%), as we all know catches are typically going to score more fantasy points on a per touch basis than carries. Here are those same players above:



McCaffrey: 33%

Barkley: 26%

Gordon: 22%

Conner: 20%

Gurley: 19%

Hunt: 13%

Chubb: 9%

Hyde: 5%

Breida: 15%

Gore: 7%



As we can see, an unusually high percentage of Drake’s touches are receptions. So now we’ve established that:

1. Defenses focused less on Drake than other good RBs

2. Drake got a greater percentage of touches through the air than other good RBs.

This helps provide context as to why his point per touch ratio is so high, and why it is likely unsustainable at volume (he’s just not McCaffrey caliber).

So many seem to think that Drake is some mega talent who is underutilized due to his high point per touch ratio, but it seems pretty clear that he scored big points/touch in large part because of his role, not despite it, and that he fit the role well. Drake’s role was in a way perfectly setup to maximize fantasy points/touch, which makes sense given his actual skillset fits the role he was given (get ball away from people, run fast). For him to get more touches, he’d have to start doing stuff that he’s not very good at, and stuff that Gore was better at (see: ypc/film). Drake is the perfect example of a guy utilized in a manner that fits his skill set.”

[akpipeline23]

Here’s a post I made somewhere else about a different player that is similarly overhyped as a talent through the use of misleading point per touch stats. Just imagine it’s about Williams as although the post is about a different player, the point per touch argument tends to wilt with the slightest bit of context when it comes to these low usage JAG types.

You hit the nail on the head. Fantasy points per touch is not a predictive stat (that I've seen - if there is evidence that it is predictive, I would be very curious to see it). I don't know that I feel strongly one way or the other about Williams, but I don't think that is a useful line of analysis.