Corey Davis vs the 2019 Rookie WRs

[FantasyFreak]

Davis for me, I don't think much of this class, and I think he improves on his year 2 totals. Situation isn't ideal, but beyond Hardman and Campbell, who aren't polished products themselves, I don't like many of the landing spots. His prospect rating/draft capital would be above any in this class, and he has had a few years to adjust to the NFL, and is still very young.

[BigJoeWall72]

Very topical thread for me... I was just debating what rookie picks I could ask for in return for Davis...

I still think he is a great talent in a highly questionable situation (in terms of the type of offense and the QB throwing him the ball), plus he proved last year that he could stay healthy for (or at least play in) 16 games. If he were in almost any other team in the NFL, he would likely be putting up 20% more stats, and have an even better chance a making a big 2nd year leap.

On the other hand, he is in the Titans offense and does have Mariota for a QB. One would like to think that the Titans signing Humphries in free agency and drafting AJB at 51 indicates they might be eyeing a bit more explosive tint to the offense next season.

Personally, I think he holds a value of at least a top-2 pick, but probably more like 1.01 + something. That something could be a second 1st round pick to someone who is still really high on him. So obviously I'm leaning toward Davis vs the rookie WRs.

I'm curious to see what kind of recent trades are out there involving Davis and 2019 rookie picks.

[lukkynumber13]

In this startup, the first copy of Harry went fairly early - followed by the first copy of DK - followed by 2nd copy of Harry - then I took the first copy of Davis - then the 2nd copy of Davis went right after - then I took DK’s 2nd copy

(Parris Campbell’s 2 copies went right between Davis & DK)

AJ Brown went AFTER all of that ^^

Marquise Brown & Hardman still haven’t seen a copy go yet.

[BigBawseRoss]

i cant belive people are putting DK above CD based on athletic ability alone. he wasnt even a good college wr for crying out loud. i love the potential but no way im giving up on a top 5 NFL drafted wr going into year 3 for a dude who didnt have a breakout college season and is stiff as a board with 3 routes to his name. mariota is gonna either do well this year or hit the road.

[Cameron Giles]

Davis is better than every single WR in this class. If he wasn't on the Titans, his value would go through the roof. Feel free to draft one trick ponies over him.

[Johnny Canuck]

It's easy to just say CD would be good in this hypothetical situation or that. Lots of guys are that way. Put Corey Coleman with Andrew Luck to start his career and I'm sure things would of gone differently. The problem with CD is, he's on the Titans and that's not going to change. Not only that, now he has legit competition in AJB.

He dominated at a small school, and he has NFL size. Problem is, there are a few other guys that didn't hit expectations that also dominated at small schools. Now, some of the negative situations are out of his control (QB, etc), but he obviously hasn't played up to his potential either. CD was overdrafted in real life and fantasy. He's not an uber/great talent like Dhop/OBJ/Adams (top 10 with Hundley) that can succeed without a QB, and we don't know when/if his situation will ever improve (def won't next yr) - so there's no light at the end of the tunnel yet. If he wasn't a top 5 pick (which was a reach at the time), there is zero chance he holds the same value he does today.

I would prob cut bait on him too, give me any of: N'Keal, Parris, or DK (and if I needed production this yr from a WR rookie - I'd take Hardman over him too).

I'm sure ppl will say this is a hot take, but I remember getting lit up on here for saying Juju was worth more than CD a few yrs back. Yes draft capital is important, but I'd argue that situation trumps draft capital any day, and those four rookie WRs have much better situations for fantasy production.

Corey Davis is not good enough to out perform his situation, so CD truthers better hope the Titans suck and get Tua next yr. Then maybe I'll get on board with the 4th yr breakout, because it ain't happening in yr 3 with Mariota at QB, AJB competing for targets, and Henry running 30+ times a game.

[BigBawseRoss]

It's easy to just say CD would be good in this hypothetical situation or that. Lots of guys are that way. Put Corey Coleman with Andrew Luck to start his career and I'm sure things would of gone differently. The problem with CD is, he's on the Titans and that's not going to change. Not only that, now he has legit competition in AJB.

He dominated at a small school, and he has NFL size. Problem is, there are a few other guys that didn't hit expectations that also dominated at small schools. Now, some of the negative situations are out of his control (QB, etc), but he obviously hasn't played up to his potential either. CD was overdrafted in real life and fantasy. He's not an uber/great talent like Dhop/OBJ/Adams (top 10 with Hundley) that can succeed without a QB, and we don't know when/if his situation will ever improve (def won't next yr) - so there's no light at the end of the tunnel yet. If he wasn't a top 5 pick (which was a reach at the time), there is zero chance he holds the same value he does today.

I would prob cut bait on him too, give me any of: N'Keal, Parris, or DK (and if I needed production this yr from a WR rookie - I'd take Hardman over him too).

I'm sure ppl will say this is a hot take, but I remember getting lit up on here for saying Juju was worth more than CD a few yrs back. Yes draft capital is important, but I'd argue that situation trumps draft capital any day, and those four rookie WRs have much better situations for fantasy production.

Corey Davis is not good enough to out perform his situation, so CD truthers better hope the Titans suck and get Tua next yr. Then maybe I'll get on board with the 4th yr breakout, because it ain't happening in yr 3 with Mariota at QB, AJB competing for targets, and Henry running 30+ times a game.

both dudes going into year 3... also juju got 54 more balls thrown his way last year. i think even 54 more balls from mariota (and not big ben) would have boosted CD a ton.

[Chris_R]

Davis is better than every single WR in this class. If he wasn't on the Titans, his value would go through the roof. Feel free to draft one trick ponies over him.

Yea but unfortunately he IS on the Titans who just added another talented WR in the 1st round to eat up targets in a very inconsistent offense with an inconsistent QB. Talent alone CD is as good as anybody, but he is still a member of the Titans and I wouldn't want him on my team at all. I'd just let someone else draft him.

Now would I rather own him over say AJ Brown or Marquis Brown who are both in dreadful spots? Sure. But I won't have any Ravens or Titans WRs on my team, no upside or consistency. If the Titans don't opt in on Davis' 5th year I'd be all over him asap, but not a chance right now.

[Cameron Giles]

It's easy to just say CD would be good in this hypothetical situation or that. Lots of guys are that way. Put Corey Coleman with Andrew Luck to start his career and I'm sure things would of gone differently. The problem with CD is, he's on the Titans and that's not going to change. Not only that, now he has legit competition in AJB.

He dominated at a small school, and he has NFL size. Problem is, there are a few other guys that didn't hit expectations that also dominated at small schools. Now, some of the negative situations are out of his control (QB, etc), but he obviously hasn't played up to his potential either. CD was overdrafted in real life and fantasy. He's not an uber/great talent like Dhop/OBJ/Adams (top 10 with Hundley) that can succeed without a QB, and we don't know when/if his situation will ever improve (def won't next yr) - so there's no light at the end of the tunnel yet. If he wasn't a top 5 pick (which was a reach at the time), there is zero chance he holds the same value he does today.

I would prob cut bait on him too, give me any of: N'Keal, Parris, or DK (and if I needed production this yr from a WR rookie - I'd take Hardman over him too).

I'm sure ppl will say this is a hot take, but I remember getting lit up on here for saying Juju was worth more than CD a few yrs back. Yes draft capital is important, but I'd argue that situation trumps draft capital any day, and those four rookie WRs have much better situations for fantasy production.

Corey Davis is not good enough to out perform his situation, so CD truthers better hope the Titans suck and get Tua next yr. Then maybe I'll get on board with the 4th yr breakout, because it ain't happening in yr 3 with Mariota at QB, AJB competing for targets, and Henry running 30+ times a game.

Davis could get traded tomorrow for all we know. Valuing players based on situation is not wise long-term.

Choosing Metcalf and Campbell over him is funny. They're worse football players.

[Johnny Canuck]

both dudes going into year 3... also juju got 54 more balls thrown his way last year. i think even 54 more balls from mariota (and not big ben) would have boosted CD a ton.

Yah Juju got more balls going his way, but passing volume is part of the situation equation. You can't separate it out. Juju = great situation, CD = garbage situation. Situation is a big part of the equation for fantasy production.

Juju got more balls thrown his way because he's in a better WR situation, but he also got more balls thrown his way because his play on the dictated it, he stole work from AB, not many guys can do that. CDs play to this point hasn't dictated that he be force fed, if it had, he'd more like a Dhop and succeeding regardless of his QB situation.

CD may be more talented than any of the rookies from 2019, but it's clear as day that his situation is far worse and it will for a few seasons.

He'll be a buy for me next offseason, when his QB hopefully changes, and his value compared to the 2020 draft class hype makes him worth a 2020 2nd.

[Johnny Canuck]

Davis could get traded tomorrow for all we know. Valuing players based on situation is not wise long-term.

Choosing Metcalf and Campbell over him is funny. They're worse football players.

So you would advocate valuing players based on what then? hypothetical trade situations?

Situation for WR/TE is one of the few things you can actually project some foresight into imo. The good teams/coaches and QBs don't often change (bad teams are harder to project), meaning the pass catching roles in those offenses are easier to project (although still difficult, otherwise we'd all win the million dollar draftkings contest). Situation for RB is an entirely different story, but we're talking about a WR right now, so that's not a tangent to travel down.

I don't care if those rookies are worse personally, I care if they have a better opportunity to score fantasy points, and all those WRs have a better situation/opportunity.

This thread has the stink of owners that bought CD too highly and now are trying to keep his value alive. I don't have a horse in this race. I don't have early picks in 2019 or CD.

I honestly hope CD hits this yr, because he is a great player, but his situation is trash so I just don't expect it to happen. Don't take it personal, it's a fantasy football debate.

[Warwick9]

Very topical thread for me... I was just debating what rookie picks I could ask for in return for Davis...

I still think he is a great talent in a highly questionable situation (in terms of the type of offense and the QB throwing him the ball), plus he proved last year that he could stay healthy for (or at least play in) 16 games. If he were in almost any other team in the NFL, he would likely be putting up 20% more stats, and have an even better chance a making a big 2nd year leap.

On the other hand, he is in the Titans offense and does have Mariota for a QB. One would like to think that the Titans signing Humphries in free agency and drafting AJB at 51 indicates they might be eyeing a bit more explosive tint to the offense next season.

Personally, I think he holds a value of at least a top-2 pick, but probably more like 1.01 + something. That something could be a second 1st round pick to someone who is still really high on him. So obviously I'm leaning toward Davis vs the rookie WRs.

I'm curious to see what kind of recent trades are out there involving Davis and 2019 rookie picks.

I traded 1.03 and Greg Olsen this year for CD and a 2020 3rd pre-draft
then
I traded Rosen, Diggs(2y), 2020 late 1st for Lamar Jackson(potential top 5 QB), Courtland Sutton, Mark Andrews, 1.05(then took DK to pair up with Russell Wilson)

[jordanzs]

Before the NFL draft I saw someone trade Corey Davis & a mid 2nd round pick for the 1.2.

[Cameron Giles]

Davis could get traded tomorrow for all we know. Valuing players based on situation is not wise long-term.

Choosing Metcalf and Campbell over him is funny. They're worse football players.

So you would advocate valuing players based on what then? hypothetical trade situations?

Situation for WR/TE is one of the few things you can actually project some foresight into imo. The good teams/coaches and QBs don't often change (bad teams are harder to project), meaning the pass catching roles in those offenses are easier to project (although still difficult, otherwise we'd all win the million dollar draftkings contest). Situation for RB is an entirely different story, but we're talking about a WR right now, so that's not a tangent to travel down.

I don't care if those rookies are worse personally, I care if they have a better opportunity to score fantasy points, and all those WRs have a better situation/opportunity.

This thread has the stink of owners that bought CD too highly and now are trying to keep his value alive. I don't have a horse in this race. I don't have early picks in 2019 or CD.

I honestly hope CD hits this yr, because he is a great player, but his situation is trash so I just don't expect it to happen. Don't take it personal, it's a fantasy football debate.

I largely value players who are really good at football, regardless of situation. Situations change, for the better or worse The Titans may draft a really good QB in the next 2 years. Mariota may have a decent year. Mariota may get injured and Tannehill may have a decent year. Who knows. The point is that situations change and talent doesn't.

Corey Davis is a really good WR. I am not taking worse WR's over him like Metcalf and Campbell just because they have a better QB. One of them is a one trick pony and the other feasted on LOS passes to offset his inability to run routes.

At the end of the day, talent will always win out and Davis has the upside to be a very, very high-level WR. He can win at every level of the field and can beat press and man. There's a great thread illustrating why Davis is good:

https://twitter.com/Brickwallblitz/stat ... 8115793922

But hey, take Parris Campbell.

[Johnny Canuck]

I largely value players who are really good at football, regardless of situation. Situations change, for the better or worse The Titans may draft a really good QB in the next 2 years. Mariota may have a decent year. Mariota may get injured and Tannehill may have a decent year. Who knows. The point is that situations change and talent doesn't.

Corey Davis is a really good WR. I am not taking worse WR's over him like Metcalf and Campbell just because they have a better QB. One of them is a one trick pony and the other feasted on LOS passes to offset his inability to run routes.

At the end of the day, talent will always win out and Davis has the upside to be a very, very high-level WR. He can win at every level of the field and can beat press and man. There's a great thread illustrating why Davis is good:

https://twitter.com/Brickwallblitz/stat ... 8115793922

But hey, take Parris Campbell.

Fair enough, we obviously value players with different methodology. Regardless, I hope Davis breaks out....just not until 2020 so I can get him for cheap when they draft a decent QB lol.