How do YOU rank rookies?

[akpipeline23]

TLDR: What do you take into account when ranking rookies?

There are hundreds of posts on these forums either touching on or directly discussing different ways of evaluating rookies. There are dozens of different metrics or resources that people trust. Just to give some examples of what I'm talking about:

- "Expert" rankings (which rankers are best?)
- ADP
- Matt Waldman/RSP (or other large-scale analysis/breakdowns)
- College game tape (either watched yourself or broken down by an "expert")
- Combine/other metrics
- Which metrics are important/irrelevant? Quickness? Size? Fumbles? Accuracy (for QBs)?
- NFL team surrounding talent (QB/playcaller)
- NFL team opportunity
- NFL team "fit"
- Draft capital
- Did the team trade up to draft the player?
- etc...

Each of you must use some combination of these and/or other factors when choosing which rookies to rank over others. What does that look like for you? Do any of these actually have an established track record of success (I'm confident draft capital does - what else?)? Can you point to some track record or logic that supports your method versus just using ADP?

[lukkynumber13]

I write down all the rookies, pen to paper, and imagine taking them in a rookie draft right now, at this exact moment. I keep re-ranking then until it feels authentic, yet reasonable.

To the OP, do you work on the North Slope??

[Jigga94]

I'll watch some highlight reels before the combine on some of the prospects... This usually just puts some names out there that I'm impressed by (Jacobs, Sanders, Butler)

I don't put too much stock into the combine, but I will keep a note of who did well (Parris, Sanders) and who didn't (Holyfield)

Then I generally look at NFL draft order. I'll take this order and rearrange by the combine numbers, landing spots and tape I watch. I know this isn't very analytical, but I know the NFL scouts put way more time into it than I did...

Take RB for example: Jacobs is 1st on my board and Sanders and Montgomery are 2a and 2b.
I don't like Henderson at all really so he slides down a few spots while guys like Hill and Singletary move ahead.
I have a tough time differentiating between the Harris/Love/Snell/Etc. so I let you guys do that

[akpipeline23]

To the OP, do you work on the North Slope??

I do not - but I am from Fairbanks. That's just a nickname from playing basketball since I am from Alaska and love taking the ball coast to coast.

[Pac_Eddy]

I start with an expert or DLF rankings. I move players around based on my thoughts. I break the list up into tiers. I make my biggest changes after the NFL draft.

My process works best if I let it stew over time. Keep tweaking as I get more information. Then I draft and trade based on tiers of players.

[IR1]

Expert rankings, look at other drafts- start assigning value- place tiers- then look at situation. reassess periodically until our draft

[akpipeline23]

I start with an expert or DLF rankings. I move players around based on my thoughts. I break the list up into tiers. I make my biggest changes after the NFL draft.

Expert rankings, look at other drafts- start assigning value- place tiers- then look at situation. reassess periodically until our draft

Do you guys look at a conglomeration of expert rankings, or are there specific rankers you trust? If so, who are those rankers and why do you trust them more than the others?

[Pac_Eddy]

I start with an expert or DLF rankings. I move players around based on my thoughts. I break the list up into tiers. I make my biggest changes after the NFL draft.

Expert rankings, look at other drafts- start assigning value- place tiers- then look at situation. reassess periodically until our draft

Do you guys look at a conglomeration of expert rankings, or are there specific rankers you trust? If so, who are those rankers and why do you trust them more than the others?

I use the DLF writer rankings as well as rankings posted in this forum. I browse other sites too, not sure how much they influence me beyond pointing out who the consensus top picks are and who the most polarizing players are.

[Paul717]

I start with Matt Waldman / POST Draft RSP rankings. But since that comes out in April / May and our draft isn't until late August, I have the benefit of usually 2-3 preseason games as well. And this year, for the first time, I'll have benefit of a lot of great threads on this site. I've bookmarked a few already. I'm most interested in risk avoidance. Meaning I'll listen to compelling arguments made here and in the RSP that someone is overrated / risky.

[IR1]

I start with an expert or DLF rankings. I move players around based on my thoughts. I break the list up into tiers. I make my biggest changes after the NFL draft.

Expert rankings, look at other drafts- start assigning value- place tiers- then look at situation. reassess periodically until our draft

Do you guys look at a conglomeration of expert rankings, or are there specific rankers you trust? If so, who are those rankers and why do you trust them more than the others?

I try to minimize the amount of time I spend on this, easy to get too involved, so I keep to the rankings on this site

[killer_of_giants]

i try to watch as much as i can of the players before the combine, and identify the players i like the most.
not that i'm anything special at scouting, but i guess it is more satisfying to me if i hit on a player that i picked based on my own thought process and evaluation. at this stage i use rankings only to make sure i'm not missing anyone.

however, after i have an idea, i do listen to some experts talking about the rookies and see if there are major discrepancies and why: i overlook many things and this helps plugging a few holes.

i don't put much weight on the combine, just flag outliers at both ends.

then after the draft i factor in draft capital and opportunity.

at that point is a matter of what i need from the draft, relatively safe short term production or more risk/reward on a longer timescale.

[BigBawseRoss]

figure out who i like on talent and production and then adjust a ton based on draft capital and landing spot. keep note of sparq gems taken late or udfa that land in good spots.

[lukkynumber13]

To the OP, do you work on the North Slope??

I do not - but I am from Fairbanks. That's just a nickname from playing basketball since I am from Alaska and love taking the ball coast to coast.

Very cool! Born & raised in Anchorage, myself.

Live in Wasilla now

[Chwf3rd]

I already have my own rankings pre-draft then i put those pre-draft rankings in a column next to a column listing them in the order they were drafted.

From there I use my pre-draft rankings as the base and move players around based on landing spot + draft capital.

[abloom]

I have a complex formula that relies heavily on High school home jersey colors, the numerical value of player's first and last name (a=1, b=2 etc. etc.), and finally how many hundredths of seconds they ran their 2nd 40 time in (ie if someone ran a 4.36 and 4.47 I use the "7").